I had linked to a blogger's comments about three Russian tactical missile brigades pulling up close to the Ukrainian border last week---two of the three missile systems can go tactical nuclear if armed as such.
Then this today indicates that Russia is in fact ready to use tactical and or use the threat of tactical nuclear weapons if it thinks f an in fact "destroy" NATO ---all because NATO/EU/US had openly stated they will not use force to settle the Ukrainian problem.
Just maybe they should revisit that set of statements in the next few days.
October 06, 2014
Russian and Polish Analysts Concerned War in Ukraine Could Escalate and Approach Nuclear Level
By Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
Full Text: Financial Times
In European capitals I have visited recently – in particular, Warsaw and Berlin – certain ideas about the Ukraine crisis are regarded as established facts. The annexation of Crimea was an illegal act of aggression. There has been direct Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Indeed, the German government thinks that between 500 and 3,000 regular Russian troops have been killed in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.
But in Mr [chairman of the Russian parliament's education committee Vyacheslav] Nikonov's world the crisis in Ukraine is the product of American aggression. There are indeed foreign troops and military advisers in Ukraine – but they are Americans, not Russians. These are common themes on Russian television.
The nationalist discourse in the Russian media is the cause of great alarm in the Baltic states and in Poland. However, there is one point where Russian and Polish analysis of the crisis meets. Officials and commentators on both sides of the looking glass agree that there is a real danger of the Ukrainian conflict morphing into a wider war between Russia and the west.
"This is the most dangerous moment in relations between Russia and the west since the Cuba missile crisis," Mr Nikonov argues. Dmitri Trenin, a less strident analyst who runs the Carnegie Moscow Center, also evokes the nuclear stand-off of 1962. Mr Trenin spells out a possible ladder of escalation in which western military support for Ukraine enrages Russia. In response, Russia might then mount a full invasion of Ukraine and even go nuclear – or, at least, use a nuclear-capable missile with a conventional warhead. . . .
Funnily enough, I had had the same scenario spelt out for me by a senior Polish official in Warsaw a couple of weeks earlier. The Poles worry that, having swallowed Crimea, Mr Putin will now be tempted to grab a larger part of Ukraine – perhaps the southern chunk of the country that the Russians have taken to referring to as "Novorossiya. . . ."
"Putin has worked the west out," says one gloomy Polish official. "He knows we won't use force." The darkest Polish scenario is also that Mr Putin might be tempted to go up to the nuclear brink by using conventionally armed missiles that could carry nuclear warheads. The dangers of such a policy hardly need spelling out. But destroying the credibility of Nato's security guarantee to the Balts – and therefore of Nato itself – would be a tremendous prize for Russia.
REMEMBER: I had stated here Russia has three inherent goals;
1. destroy/damage NATO has a credible threat
2. separate/split EU from the US
3. destroy/damage the EU
Minor Ukrainian success---cyber war victory---for some reason the Russian info war site Military Map has been down for four days.
Silver Surfer @RobPulseNews · Oct 5
Military maps is offline bc the #Russia|n side are:
1. Losing, or
2. Ukraine's army knocked out the server :-/
>Military maps, the Pro-#Russia|n live battle map that covers #Donetsk airport is OFFLINE.
I wonder why? :-/
Keeping the Pressure on Mr. Putin
To Give Ukraine a Chance, Sanctions on Russia Must Continue
By THE EDITORIAL BOARDOCT. 3, 2014
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany knows a bit about dealing with Russia. She has spoken with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, more often than any other Western leader, and, more to the point, she grew up under Moscow’s yoke in East Germany. So when she says that it’s far too early to lift the sanctions imposed on Russia, Western capitals should listen.
But why, some may ask, should lucrative economic dealings with Russia be curtailed when a cease-fire with Ukraine was agreed to on Sept. 5 and the crisis has abated? Russia has pulled most of its forces out of Ukraine — not that it ever acknowledged having any there — and negotiations are underway over a buffer zone along the Ukraine-Russia border and about resumption of gas deliveries to Ukraine.
Here’s why: Even setting aside the illegal annexation of Crimea and continuing fighting around Donetsk, the fact is that in the absence of pressure from the United States and the European Union, Mr. Putin has little incentive to make any concessions to Ukraine. Freezing the conflict, with pro-Russian insurgents in effective control of Ukraine’s industrial southeast and negotiations plodding along indefinitely, suits him just fine.
One of Mr. Putin’s advantages in the conflict is that he has never revealed his hand. Even the annexation of Crimea was regarded in Western capitals as unlikely until it happened. In the Donbass region of southeastern Ukraine, Mr. Putin has simply denied that Russia is involved while actively backing Russia’s proxies with arms and soldiers. When Ukrainian forces actually began to get the upper hand over the insurgents, Russia sent in more troops and arms, finally forcing the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, to settle for a cease-fire that was essentially a tactical victory for Mr. Putin.
Mr. Putin’s plan now seems to be to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the European Union, achieve de facto recognition of the annexation of Crimea and keep Ukraine weak. Control over southeastern Ukraine is one lever; gas supplies, trade and Ukrainian debt are the others. Mr. Poroshenko hopes to gain enough breathing room to start straightening out Ukraine’s flailing economy so that he can start moving his country toward Europe.
While the fighting may have ebbed, the struggle continues, and will for a long time to come. The Western sanctions are hurting Russia’s sputtering economy, but that has not yet weakened popular support for Mr. Putin. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s economy continues to disintegrate.
Mr. Poroshenko has demonstrated courage and realism in dealing with Russia while insisting that his goal remains to join the European Union. If Ukraine is to have a fighting chance, the European Union and the United States must not waver in their support for Kiev or in their sanctions on Russia. “Sometimes in history one has to be prepared for the long haul,” Ms. Merkel said recently, “and not ask after four months if it still makes sense to keep up our demands.”
More open source evidence turned up by bloggers that Russian T72s came straight from Russia and were not captured from the UA.
Russian GRU/FSB should really pay more attention to their social media---it is a major intel hole.
Some Russian rebel T-72 tanks have had the #H2200 Russian Rail Transport marking removed, though not all.
Separatists using Russian T-72s supplied by Moscow via rail in the battle for Donetsk airport #Ukraine #H2200
#H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: Old Russian T-72 tank on rail car in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Russia. Destination: #Ukraine. "
#H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: Another old Russian T-72 in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Russia. NOTE Russian markings H2200 "
H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: BREAKING: Separatists training with Russian T-72's at Russian base in Kuzminka Rostov Ob. "
#H2200 "@UkrainianSentry: Russian T-72 tanks being offloaded from rail at Pokrovskoye, Rostov ob. Loaded on trucks. "
Proof that T-72 tanks used by Russian rebels are supplied by the Russian Army via rail #H2200
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4d3...tu.be&t=11m45s …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-07-2014 at 06:46 AM.
Seems the Russian government does not want the Ukraine to get back to combat---maybe out of fear that they can no longer control their own mercenaries and the potential loss of more Russian troops.
From RIA today:
WASHINGTON, October 7 (RIA Novosti) - US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland's visit to the Ukrainian capital Kiev indicates that Washington is worried that the Ukrainian government is hesitating to gain control over the country's East militarily, Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Binghamton University in New York James Petras has told RIA Novosti.
"Nuland, who is considered by most experts in the United States a neo-conservative extremist, was the architect of the coup [in Ukraine]. Since the stalemate has taken place, Washington has increased its flow of advisors to western Ukraine and I think that Nuland is particularly anxious to shift Kiev from diplomacy to warfare", Petras said Monday.
He also noted that Nuland's main goal in Kiev is "to take [Ukrainian President] Mr. [Petro] Poroshenko to task for spending so much time talking and not as much time planning and strategizing for a new phase in the military dimensions of the conflict."
The expert went further by arguing that the militarization of foreign policy has become the principle strategy of Washington.
In addition, Professor Petras stated that the United States is offering Kiev very limited economic aid and is particularly interested in privatization of the Ukrainian economy.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland have discussed the implementation of the Minsk agreements, aimed at resolving the situation in southeastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian president's official website reported Monday.
The September 5 meeting of the Contact Group of Ukraine resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian government and pro-independence forces, which came into force that same day. The sides agreed on a nine-point memorandum, specifying the implementation of the ceasefire during another meeting of the group.
I expect citing Professor James Petras by RIA is not really a surprise, once you take a peek at his own views - illustrated politley on:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Petras
From this armchair describing any member of the Obama administration as 'a neo-conservative extremist' acted as a warning signal to ignore the good professor.
davidbfpo
It appears that actually many current Russian mercenaries trying to create the New Russia seem to not quite get the idea that where the Ukrainian Army is sitting is in fact Ukrainian territory and all their talk does not change that simple fact.
I guess they have not heard that the UA, SBU, NG, and Independent BNs do in fact arrest mercenaries wherever they find them so if they just walk in with a ballot box under their arm will make things a lot easier than having to shoot at them.
Ukraine Liveblog: Separatists To Hold Their Own Elections -- Even In Territory Controlled By Ukraine
http://bit.ly/1t1cMzx
DNR election chief Lyagin: "we r planning election in kramatorsk, debaltsevo, mariupol. I'm an optimist" And believer in ceasefire obviously
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-07-2014 at 03:42 PM.
David---the theme of the press release is interesting ie the Ukrainian Army going back on the offensive.Originally Posted by davidbfpo
If one really thinks about it---even with Russian troops assistance and the Russian military handing tanks, artillery and BM21s/27s to the mercenaries they have actually been unable in direct one on one fighting with the UA, NG and Independent BNs to oust them from any of their held positions. and even the Russian troops when they inject themselves are taking loses---German estimates are up to 3000 which ties into the 4K that has been mentioned by Russian Mothers of the Military sites.
Currently the Ukrainians are still holding onto four strategic locations even though surrounded and have lost not one of them ---especially the airport battle which about wiped out three critical Russian mercenary groups who had been the backbone of the mercenary groupings.
The pullback of the UA to defendable positions has given them the breathing space to rearm and refit and reposition themselves into even better blocking positions.
NOW it has finally dawned on the mercenaries that the "special status" that the Rada passed has in fact not been officially signed thus is not law---the Ukrainian President is holding that over their heads in order to see if they would hold to the agreed to "ceasefire" which they did not ---over 1200 attacks since 5 September.
It is also dawning on them after their massive loses during the airport battle that the UA can in fact fight well---Ukrainian artillery strike precision for some unknown reason has vastly improved and a modern Ukrainian built T64 series has started showing up in the forward areas which is more than a match for anything the Russians have provided.
Then this today from RIA where again the mercenaries are voicing the "fear" of renewed combat operations by the Ukrainians.
From RIA today:
Novorossiya People's Front member accuses Poroshenko of breaching Minsk deal
DONETSK. Oct 7 (Interfax) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's reluctance to sign a law granting "special" status to Donbas comes in violation of the September 5 Minsk agreements, Denis Pushilin, who coordinates socioeconomic issues within the Novorossiya People's Front, told reporters on Tuesday.
"Poroshenko is clearly delaying the signing of the law that grants special status to Donbas even though the Rada voted in favor of adopting it on September 16. It is a direct violation of Point 3 of the Minsk peace protocol. The Minsk agreements will become invalid if Donbas does not receive special status," Pushilin said.
This situation may mean that Kyiv plans to reject the peace plan and could be preparing a new army operation against the self-proclaimed Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk (LPR) People's Republics, he said.
"If the special status law is not signed, an invasion [of the militia-controlled DPR and LPR by the Ukrainian army] will become inevitable," he said.
Pushilin also suggested that the Ukrainian authorities are "only playing for time and are using this entire peace process to get ready for a new war."
Some here did not go for my statement that Putin was "suckered into the Ukraine" by the Ukrainian President.
Think about it;
1. Russia would not have initially come in if the mercenaries had not been on the verge of losing---and the Ukrainian leadership kept pushing their ATO even in the face of knowing it would cause the Russians to enter--wonder why they kept pushing
2. without Russia coming into the eastern Ukraine and that move was verified by the global media--the sectorial sanctions would never have been passed by the EU
3. the sheer number of killed, wounded and missing Russian troops that Putin paid for a buffer zone is telling and the heavy Russian equipment that has been passed to the mercenaries has not changed the battlefield to their advantage---actually they have not been able to take over the four enclaves and the airport despite heavy ceasefire violations to the tune of over 1200 attacks
4. the west has stepped up and will help with the rebuilding efforts of the Donbas and with new energy efforts by the Ukrainian government
5.the sanctions together with a crashing oil price has now hampered Russian ability to do just about anything
Today from the Russian Finance Ministry concerning the planned massive Russian military spending up to 2020.
Finance Minister Siluanov: #Russia will not be able to afford its current level of military spending in the long term
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/508569.html …
6. if Putin makes a grab for the Odessa land corridor the EU is in fact threatening more far reaching sectorial sanctions on Russia
So in the end---even though the Ukraine is struggling with the lost portions of the Donbas---Putin had wanted it all---the lost of Ukrainian territory could have been far worse than it is.
So again did Putin get "suckered" as it looks like the Ukrainian side anticipated many of this moves before he made them and took the necessary responses in advance--however planned and or unplanned.
Battered Russian economy faces more pain over Ukraine: IMF
Moscow (AFP) - Russia's already battered economy will struggle to recover from the fallout of the crisis in Ukraine as uncertainty looks set to drag down growth around the former Soviet Union, the IMF warned on Tuesday.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-07-2014 at 04:49 PM.
Can and or does anyone here know this particular US quoted commenter in the following RIA article---cannot find him anywhere on the net? (Added by Moderator: try:http://www.andrewkreig.com/index.php/bio )
Andrew Kreid, Washington based author and analyst, told RIA Novosti.
Later in the article they either misspelled his name of named him correctly--Kreig
From RIA today:
WASHINGTON, October 7 (RIA Novosti) - US Assistant Secretary of State's visit to the Ukrainian capital might bring the money for covert military assistance and propaganda efforts in the conflict-torn country, Andrew Kreid, Washington based author and analyst, told RIA Novosti.
"Ambassador Nuland and her contacts in the intelligence agencies and so-called "non-government" and "democracy-building" organizations can provide substantial, hard-to-trace support far beyond the $50 million that the White House announced," Kreig told RIA Novosti on Monday. "Much of this money would likely be covert military assistance and propaganda efforts."
The analyst underlined that such covert patterns have been used for years all over the world.
"So, it is highly likely that their use would continue," he said. "The difficulty now, however, is that the amounts needed are so vast and the exposure risks would be grave because of public denials that such secret help has been occurring."
Kreig added that the meeting's participants provided optimistic public comments despite the difficult financial circumstances Kiev is facing.
"Behind the scenes, participants are doubtless strategizing how to obtain more money for Kiev and public relations strategies," he said.
"The situation for the public and ultimately the leaders is especially difficult because Poroshenko's high-profile visit to the United States [on September 18] resulted merely in a White House promise of $50 million in aid through 2015. The International Monetary Fund predicted that Ukraine will need $19 billion then," he explained.
Commenting on the importance of the meeting between Poroshenko and Nuland on Monday, Kreig said one needs to look beyond the formal titles of the individuals to assess their real-world strength.
"Nuland is stronger in Washington than her title indicates. She, her husband and their other family members are favorite instruments of the bipartisan, pro-war military and Wall Street factions that helped orchestrate the Ukrainian government's overthrow," he explained.
The expert noted that Nuland's rhetoric contrasts with the abject apology to Turkey that Vice President Joseph Biden immediately provided on October 4 when Turkey protested Biden's embarrassing comment about Turkey's help for Islamist fighters in Syria.
"Thus Nuland, an unelected official held over from the Bush administration, suffered less public reprisal than the United States elected vice president," he said. "As for [President] Poroshenko, his status as a leader may be only a temporary because of the dire economic, battlefield and other strategic circumstances where he has led his followers."
Poroshenko and Nuland discussed the implementation of the Minsk agreement aimed at resolving the situation in the southeastern Ukraine on Monday. According to the statement on Ukraine's president's official website, the parties have reviewed such issues as the necessity of establishing full control over the Ukrainian-Russian border, the necessity of taking urgent measures to avoid a humanitarian disaster, and the importance of restoring the broadcast of Ukrainian TV channels in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-07-2014 at 09:59 PM. Reason: Add Mods Note and link
Bloggers have been tracking this particular Russia GRU officer since his appearance on Russian social media indicating he had been in Kyiv on 4 October 2014--although he was depicted in his GRU uniform later in October 2014---so did he participate in initial GRU recon work done in the Ukraine before the Crimea?
+ here's #Russia|n Special forces compilation war porn from east #Ukraine - This is just Milchalovs GRU unit #Luhansk
http://youtu.be/-RS41azBnIQ?t=16s …
The FINALE video I'm posting in a minute.. it is a compilation of Milchakov & his units war porn. They're v. well trained. No rag-tag milita
He is the commander of 4th battalion Luhansk (but he's GRU really) says he once they capture Donetsk they will move onto Odessa & Mariupol.
And here it is. Interview from 29th Sept, on Luhansk tv. In Russian. Sorry no eng subs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7NP...@OnlineMagazin …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7NPXjB4_rs …
Video: Milchakovs "LPR" Batman unit at the Soviet style military parade in #Donetsk. Surreal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw32uwij-3Y …
Silver Surfer @RobPulseNews · 19h 19 hours ago
Russian troop and mercenary push outside of what was previously held.
#BreakingNews Russian forces attacked #Hirske this evening, 8 km NORTH of #Pervormaisk.
Meaning, Russians push on!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyLg0frMxAY
More on Russian ultra nationalist groups in Russia and how they are influencing the Russian drive into the Ukraine.
Russian ultranationalist Okhlobystin. He has 994,000 followers, and is calling to seize Mariupol, Odessa and Kharkiv
https://twitter.com/PsykerO1477/st
The Ukraine, OSCE, and Russia in the Trilateral group agreed to a so called "silencing of the guns" phase that went into effect yesterday at 1800.
The shelling never did stop from the mercenary side although the UA refused to return fire.
Once the shellings picked up again by the mercenary side the UA now fires in response to their shellings.
So much for trusting Russia and the OSCE.
NSDC: Trilateral monitoring group agreed on "silence" ystday, but violation of the truce-attacks and shelling continued from terrorists side
The former DNR leader the Russian Girkin who was "vacationed" and who was sent back to Russia is bashing the current DNR leadership as being corrupt.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/0...ya-leadership/
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-08-2014 at 12:32 PM.
Russian FM statement today via Interfax seems to mean the Russians are not supplying arms and fighters into eastern Ukraine and that the mercenaries where to start leaving the Ukraine--all part of the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements so I am unsure just what Russian means by "Russia helps fulfillment of Minsk agreements".
The Russian FM also complained that the Ukrainians had not started a dialogue with the separatists---but also in the Minsk agreement was the speedy exchange of POWs (all within two days) which the mercenaries have again stopped, it also meant a ceasefire was to be implemented and it was also designed to start the flow of mercenaries back out of the Ukraine ---and none of that has happened so just WHY does the Russian FM put the cart before the horse?
Seems like the Russians tend to forget most of what was agreed to and only focus on what they actually want---they want it to appear that the eastern separatists are an equal government with the Ukrainian government for negotiations but that is not the case per Minsk 1 and 2.
From Interfax today:
13:36 Russia helps fulfillment of Minsk agreements to normalize situation in Ukraine, not to get sanctions lifted - Lavrov
The Russians and OSCE want and get a "extra" ceasefire attempt yesterday by the Ukrainian Army which they held to starting at 1800---then the mercenaries use the time to move equipment and troops into the supposedly 30 km agreed upon zone---so again why trust anything Russia and or the separatists are saying, writing or doing.
Azov Battalion cmdr confirms that during ceasefire #Russia|n forces moved in on #Mariupol #Ukraine violating agreed upon 30 km buffer zone
Reports that #Russia|n forces brought a huge number of new tanks 46 and other vehicles including GRAD's to #Bezimenne, not far from #Mariupol
It appears that when the Ukrainians get solid intelligence they act on it via artillery and or in this case using an alleged Tochka U ballistic missile on a captured Ukrainian Army base being used by the mercenaries to launch attacks on the Donetsk airport.
There had been a few days ago a couple of blog comments about a super large explosion in and or near Donetsk. But no one had any info on the explosion ie what it was and or what caused it.
Then a few social media videos came up on the net that made no sense in their English comments but leave it up to open source research done via ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl to piece it together.
Appears to have been well over 475 mercenaries killed when the former base was flattened by the missile.
BREAKING In #Donetsk Kalinin hospital morgue ALONE 427 bodies are stacked. Plus the ones who has remained on territory of #DonetskAirport.
After news of 427 bodies in Kalinin hospital was revealed a #Donetsk PR "minister" arrived, made short & utterly obscenity clear "no leaks".
9:41 AM - 8 Oct 2014
Again great open source work done by:
ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl
Now one can fully understand just why the Russian mercenaries have actually given up in attempting to take over the airport--it was a major military loss especially on the manpower and tank side and the Ukrainian government still has presence in the Donetsk.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-08-2014 at 04:09 PM.
http://afrika-sl.livejournal.com/61054.html
Russian volunteer about Donetzk airport:
"What is going there is a contest of two lunacies - militias loose men on daily basis in vain attaks because of shelling from Peski and Avdeevka, things would turn hairy for them if Ukr. command wouldn't do the same dumb thing by sending armor through enemy controlled territory to airstrip just to be destroyed. Tough guys from both sides enjoy playing Counter-Srtike offline in the ruins of airport with even scores".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nwfg...cbGbTXVO31oIBw
0:50 Demobee asks president when he lets them to go home.
ps. A moments of fun - historical lessions with congressman L'ashko
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmjgV...xfZMw&index=37
"Mr. president, when you say that you brought us peace, you reenact prime-minister Chamberlian, who signed a peace with Putin in 1939 "
Last edited by mirhond; 10-08-2014 at 06:59 PM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
AND the fighting continues on and on ---from ceasefire nothing to be seen for miles and the Russians "hope" the ceasefire might take hold at some point?
HOPE---the new Russian/Putin strategy?
BREAKING Confirmed - Ukraine army 93rd brigade destroyed one of Zoopark artillery radars. Thus, it is in #Ukraine.
pic.twitter.com/VXDoMfEp5R
BREAKING UPDATE #Russian army has brought 2 Zoopark artillery radars to #Ukraine. One of them is destroyed by #ATO forces
Zoopark artillery radar is perfect tool for guiding artillery precision munition shells on battlefield
BREAKING In #Horlivka in hands of #Russian army artillery radar Зоопарк (Zoo) has been spotted. Needs to be confirmed
pic.twitter.com/YC3LeZvP0O
Motorola issues vid for Russians. "Only aftr fighting here a couple of months do you have right to call self Russian"
http://bit.ly/1CXqZPa
BREAKING On Oct 8 massive #Russian army column (10 T72s, APCs, BMP, tented Ural trucks) showed up in #Zhdanivka, via Yenakiyeve to #Horlivka
#Donetsk airport - again under attack by pro-#Russia forces despite all efforts to secure ceasefire. 1 UA soldier killed via @NSDC_ua
Russia increased shellings, surveillance activity, movements last days, and now @kp_steshin is back to Donetsk. Russia will strike soon
Intelligence reports on the movement of captures heavy armored vehicles with UA signs from occupied Crimea to East
This morning #DonetskAirport was shelled by #Russian terrorists. #Ukraine artillery hit back. Destroyed the terrorist battery
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