Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[kaur]

Outlaw, hold on your horses with Latvia.

Since this September, Portugal has been the Baltic Air Policing (BAP) lead nation with four F-16’s at Šiauliai airbase, Lithuania. The Royal Canadian Air Force have four CF-188 there as well to further augment the NATO mission. In addition, Germany and the Netherlands have augmented the mission flying Eurofighters out of Ämari, Estonia, and F-16’s out of Malbork, Poland, respectively.

http://www.aco.nato.int/nato-allianc...-rotation.aspx

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, hold on your horses with Latvia.

Since this September, Portugal has been the Baltic Air Policing (BAP) lead nation with four F-16’s at Šiauliai airbase, Lithuania. The Royal Canadian Air Force have four CF-188 there as well to further augment the NATO mission. In addition, Germany and the Netherlands have augmented the mission flying Eurofighters out of Ämari, Estonia, and F-16’s out of Malbork, Poland, respectively.

http://www.aco.nato.int/nato-allianc...-rotation.aspx

kaur---BUT yesterday there was a not to subtle comment by a Russian advisor close to Putin "complaining" about the treatment of "Russians in Latvia".

Latvia has the largest Russian speaking population in the Baltics.

AND more:

Russia launches secession campaign in Eastern Latvia similar to Eastern Ukraine
http://www.unian.info/politics/10078...in-russia.html …

And so it begins. Pro Russia activists in Latvia campaigning to join Russia, mayor of Kraslava says
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/arti...2pZRbB.twitter …

[OUTLAW 09]

Can anyone tell me if the US civilian and military leadership is in and or out of touch with Ukrainian events.

This was actually reported by a leading Ukrainian former LtCOL and pinpointed where the tactical nuke missiles where stationed and numbers of them four days ago.

And now NATO just "wakes up"?

#Russia moved forces capable of delivering nuclear weapons to annexed #Crimea - #NATO commander Breedlove

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/1...0IV1IK20141111

AND can anyone tell me if it is now more important to address the Russian moves in central Europe OR chase a bunch of black flag waving Islamists stuck inside Iraq and Syria who do not have tactical nuclear missiles?

[OUTLAW 09]

Even the Russian State media cannot get their own OPSEC in order.

The Russian media report proves that in fact Russian troops and equipment are in fact now in eastern Ukraine---wonder what he will now say.

Russian state TV accidentally documents regular Russian army units from Ryazan on the move in #Donetsk #Ukraine: https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/s...120512/photo/1

[OUTLAW 09]

Today seems to be the "day of strange events" in the Ukraine.

1. Russia complaining that the OSCE is not paying as much attention to the Ukrainian Army regrouping as they do towards all the Russian convoys driving towards and from Donetsk.

2. and then this from Russia's Interfax today;

11/11 17:15 Blast goes off near Russian ship in neural waters of Sea of Azov (Part 2)

Notice the emphasis is "neutral waters"---Ukrainians state the ship is literally parked off the Mariupol harbor.

Then this from the Ukrainian side:

#Ukrainian border patrol ship reported abt a significant underwater explosion in #Azov sea.
https://twitter.com/lukakunagilaku/s...76750076497920 …
pic.twitter.com/KcE2rOwiwi

The underwater explosion was so strong glasses in cities of #Primorks & #Zhovtnevyi district shattered. Happened in neutral waters.

Even stranger now:

Explosion heard in #Mariupol was a #Russia|n cargo ship, happened in neutral waters, reason still unknown
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/406607

#BreakingReport Intense blast 17-20 miles off #Mariupol was possibly mine or submarine.
http://www.unn.com.ua/uk/news/140546...rabliv-ne-bulo …

[OUTLAW 09]

First reporting of Russian Naval Infantry being stationed right next to the Ukrainian border.

#Russia Secretly Deploys Unit of the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade to #Ukraine Border.
http://bit.ly/149SFV2

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is in full "invasion" mode and the West says nothing---notice the silence from the US civilian leadership.

Notice all they do is "urge"--but nothing stronger than "urge"---"urge" has never stopped a shooting war.
U.S. Urges Russia To 'Stop Fueling The Fire' In Ukraine
http://bit.ly/1uhUskA
pic.twitter.com/BVsrTJq803

Even after 40 confirmed serious security/air space breaches by Russian aircraft and one near miss of a civilian passenger jet yet still no response from the US civilian leadership.

There are some in Europe openly accusing the US of remaining silent as they feel Russia is nudging the Iranians to a compromise and do not want to endanger that---so the silence on the Ukraine is proof of that.

Might in fact be true but the current Iranian Supreme religious leader Khamenei with his tirade against the Israeli's last week might have been the signal Iran is not going to compromise.

Khamenei's tweets to annihilate Israel were cause to break off the nuclear negotiations & announce a reconsideration of Iran policy.

Now back to the Russian non "invasion invasion".

#BREAKINGNEWS
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIAN_ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Tymchuk: #Russia reactivated an airbase on #Ukraine's border & in the last 24h at least 20 planes carrying Russian troops/arms landed there

BREAKING:
LARGE SCALE #RUSSIA|N ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE IN #DONETSK CITY.
D-30, BM-21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …
pic.twitter.com/0zlhtb0GAA

BREAKING Fresh #Russian army column in #Ukraine heading for #Donetsk on Nov11. 36 KamAZ trucks, 8 GRAD units,7 D-30s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3xWDIjY …

Enemy is most active at #Debaltseve, #Luhansk, #Donetsk dir. #Russia keeps reinforcing attack groups - Tymchuk
pic.twitter.com/LEBz15c1qE

Large military convoy driving to #Donetsk as we follow Dutch experts out of city to #MH17 crash site

VIDEO #Russia daily invasion convoy H21 Motorway #Donetsk 36 KAMAZ Trucks,8 GRAD,etc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSnU3...ature=youtu.be … #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/T8na8AFJQO

Russia-sponsored separatists in #Novoazovsk, #Donetsk region has got the SA-22 Greyhound missile launcher - military expert Tymchuk.

Other vehicles that also came in with #Russia invasion convoy #Donetsk #Ukraine-troops in bus,poss GRU intel vehicles
pic.twitter.com/6QuvgDuQnr

#Russia invasion convoy to #Donetsk packed with ammo & a possible portable mortuary -meaning offensive war #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/DQ9HqrihVO

Another convoy of about 12 military trucks with howitzers is waiting on the E entrance to #Donetsk

http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/10-nove...ilitary-trucks …

[OUTLAW 09]

So when does the US civilian leadership finally change their misspoken word "incursion" and change it to "invasion"?

Seems to prove that "soft power without military power" is nothing more than words when an aggressor is not on the same wave length.

#UNSC to hold emergency session on #Ukraine Wednesday as its ambo warns of full scale invasion by #Russia

Again had lethal aid been approved and supplied we would not be at the UNSC tomorrow.

While we will be having 3200 "non boots on the ground" in Iraq the Ukraine has stated they will fight their own fight they just help in countering over now approximately 300 tanks and over 5000 Russian troops.

They are not asking for a single pair of US boots on the ground---just weapons to help restore the sovereignty of their country that the US stated they would assist in the Budapest Memorandum.

[kaur]

Outlaw, thanks for the links! All the info about "threat" is this. Should we worry?

The chairman of the council of Ludza District Alina Gendele (Latgale Party) said that the situation in the town and region is calm, apart from the activities of few elderly people in the former Linderman’s party.

About Linderman.

A leader of the Latvian branch of the NBP since 2002, Linderman is also a member of the Central Committee of the National Bolshevik Party. In 2003 Vladimir Linderman was arrested and imprisoned in Russia. In 2007 he was one of the organizers of the Dissenters March. Linderman was deported from Russia to Latvia in 2008. He was accused of storing explosives and of calling for the overthrow of the political system. In 2008, Linderman was for several months held in a temporary detention facility in Riga, though he has been found innocent by Latvian courts. In 2009, Linderman became the founder and leader of the Latvian political party 13th of January Movement.

http://www.15min.lt/en/article/world...#ixzz3InRCbqRV

The longer Russia acts in Donbass, the more Russian compatriots will like this kind of "peaceful" and "golden age" future. Especially in EU. People were happy to receive sometimes higher pensions from Russia and spend the money in much more stable enivornment in the west. Today even this pension argument is failing due to rouble dynamics.

I do like this discussion about variables in Ukraine-Russia war. How many you find in Latvia?

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article...bas-insurgency

Some 20 years ago RF minister said.

There may be cases when the use of direct military force will be needed to defend our compatriots abroad," Kozyrev said in April. The remark, designed for domestic consumption, provoked sharp protests from the Baltic states and concern abroad.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitema...es/337805.html

[OUTLAW 09]

More confirmed Russian units that have been heavily hit by the Ukrainian forces.

Report: @HromadskeTV Ru 439th Guards Rocket Artillery Brigade destroyed by Azov Battalion near #Mariupol @Polk_Azov

pic.twitter.com/4jkEOJqBif

[OUTLAW 09]

We have had a number of debates here at SWJ concerning "Russian humiliation" about NATO expansion.

This might finally put it to rest---there was never a NATO promise to not expand.

Gorbachev refutes myth that he was promised there would be no NATO expansion to the East.

http://dw.de/p/1DjVq pic.twitter.com/Pa3T74ICkQ

[OUTLAW 09]

Current Russian tactical movements on the ground in the areas they control inside the eastern Ukraine.

During the past 24 hours, Russian-terrorist troops fired more than 30 times onto the positions of ATO [anti-terrorism operation] forces.

Special enemy activity was observed in the Debaltseve, Luhansk and Donetsk directions – 12, 9 and 8 fire strikes each respectively.

In particular, the situation in the ATO zone remains the most intense in the areas of Debaltseve (6 attacks), Krymske (4 [artillery] bombardments), Zolote, Berezove (3 bombardments each), Chernukhyne, Donetsk Airport, Stanytsia Luhanska (2 bombardments each).

The process of “centralization” of the so-called militia “Army of New Russia” is ongoing. The process is formally led by representatives of the “DNR” and “LNR” [Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics], in reality – specialists from several departments of the General Staff of the RF and the FSB. All activities of the “centralization” are supplied not only with material-technical logistics, but also “organizationally” (including pressure, intimidation, and physical measures to “unruly” fighters), with the support of militant groups of special purpose law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation.

Further measures to strengthen Russian-terrorist forces strike groups are being implemented. In particular, in the area east of Chornukhyne (the left flank of the Debaltseve bridgehead) a new artillery group has been deployed. By Stanytsia Luhansk, the south elevation at Mykolaivka, artillery is also being pulled up. To the north of this area armored vehicles are being transferred (during the past 24 hours, the movement of up to 20 units, including tanks, has been recorded).

Tactical groups south of Donetsk continue to be strengthened. Delivery of provisions from Russia, mainly go through the settlements of Snizhne and Amvrosiivka (2-3 daily supply convoys). Between Olenivka and Telmanovo, the concentration of combat units, and the accumulation of stocks of material and technical equipment (fuel, ammunition, other resources) continues.

In the district of Novoazovsk, the enemy equips the fortified area, under cover from the air. In the direction of Mariupol, they concluded the formation of the Second Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) in north Kominternovo. The main forces of the enemy are in the depth of the second tier, small mobile groups have been moved forward, mostly made up of local militants.

Among the local fighters are rumors that in occupied Crimea large-scale mobilization activities to resupply the so-called “Army of New Russia” will be carried out by Russian command.

Notice the section highlighted concerning "unruly fighters".

Disunity and warlordization of the east Ukraine rebels. Another ridiculously good piece by @NatVasilyevaAP
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-rebel...124041693.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

This would explain the serious lack of Us interest and aimlessness on the Ukraine--regardless of what US senior civilian leadership says in the public---based on their actions on the ground there is in effect a "deal" in place---sacrifice the Ukraine and the peace of Europe for a place in history.

From the NYTs.

The Opinion Pages | Op-Ed Columnist

The Iran-Ukraine Affair

NOV. 10, 2014

Have you heard about the Iran-Ukraine affair?

It goes like this. Vladimir Putin’s Russia makes nice over an Iran nuclear deal. It is helpful in every way. A recent headline on a piece by my colleague David Sanger read, “Role for Russia Gives Iran Talks a Possible Boost.” In return, the United States turns a blind eye to the big Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border and in areas under the control of Moscow-backed rebel separatists.

I am not suggesting there is any such formal Iran-Ukraine trade-off between the Obama administration and Putin. I am suggesting that the Russian leader has a keen eye for American weakness and an exquisite sense of timing. The abrupt flaring of new fighting in eastern Ukraine, and the abrupt Russian readiness to help on Iran ahead of the Nov. 24 deadline for nuclear talks, are not a mere coincidence. They are part of a Russian strategy and, for now, the United States is playing along.

An Iran nuclear deal would be good for the United States, Iran and the world. President Obama understands its importance, hence his recent reported letter to the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. An accord could place all Iran’s irreversible nuclear capacity in a limited and verifiable box, ensuring there is never an Iranian bomb, while ushering the last sizeable emerging market nation into the global economy. It would change the blocked politics of the Middle East, confounding America’s enemies and forcing sometimes manipulative allies to think in new and perhaps constructive ways. The deal, at this point, represents the last hope for any significant Obama legacy in the Middle East. It is clear that he wants it.

But the unspoken price of an Iran deal, vital as it is, cannot be the loss of Ukraine and the unraveling of NATO. Putin has already annexed Crimea despite Russia’s signed agreement in 1994 “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.” There is every reason to believe he has designs on all Ukraine. The West’s mistake has been to think that Putin is not serious in wishing to reconstitute the Soviet Union in new guise.

The current Russian buildup has all the signs of preparation for an offensive. Large, unmarked convoys of heavy weapons and tanks manned by personnel without insignia on their uniforms (like those who took over Crimea) have been seen rumbling toward the front lines in rebel-held territory. Sophisticated artillery and ground-to-air missile systems have been moved into position. Units all the way from the east and far north of Russia have been massed. You don’t move military units thousands of miles for nothing.

A retired NATO general who recently held talks with the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, told me that intelligence estimates are of some 45,000 regular Russian troops on the border; tens of thousands of Russian irregulars of various stripes inside Ukraine organized by a smaller number of Russian officers and military personnel; some 450 battle tanks and over 700 pieces of artillery.

“Ukraine has no real fighting capacity to face all this,” he said. “They think we’re their friends and don’t understand why we won’t help them. They are frustrated and afraid because they can see a hammer coming at them.”

All parties involved are sick and tired of confrontation and sooner or later will come to a compromise... trade-off. Ukraine for Iranian...

Some posters give Putin's aggression in Ukraine a pass on the basis that US foreign policy is hardly angelic either. While we haven't...

In response to Putin’s hammer, the West has expressed concern. The United States National Security Council spokeswoman has said, “We are very concerned.” The European Union has called the reports of convoys of heavy weapons “very worrying.” Concern and worry do not stop a hammer. Poroshenko’s requests to Obama for substantial American military assistance should not have been rejected.

Watch Putin’s actions. Be very wary of his words. That is the lesson of the past year. It has not been learned. It is nice that the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, and Secretary of State John Kerry have just agreed to exchange information on Ukraine and called for respect for a September cease-fire that is unraveling in the smoke and fire of Donetsk. It is also meaningless. Lavrov feigns the innocent on the military buildup. That’s his good-cop role.

The reality is dangerous. A quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall, as balloons go up in the German capital, a nation of 45 million people that wants to enjoy the fruits of European freedom is being abandoned to Russian dismemberment. If that happens, if Ukraine is lost, America’s promise to its NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe is not going to be viewed as credible. A core Russian strategic objective since 1945 — the decoupling of American and European defense — will be on its way to realization.

NOTE: these are the core Putin strategic goals of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

1. destroy the myth of how strong NATO is
2. decouple the US from Europe and
3. discredit the EU

I just hope the refrain inside the White House is not: “We can’t annoy the Russians on Ukraine. They’re being helpful on Iran. We won’t get a deal without them.” But I wouldn’t bet on it. An Iran-Ukraine affair is plausible.

[OUTLAW 09]

While it is interesting to see "The Daily Beast" catching up to the information level of European/Ukrainian bloggers concerning Russian movement inside the eastern Ukraine albeit with a 72-96 hour delay on the part of Daily Beast as well as the other western media.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...source=twitter

The core question remains--What is the response and or lack of response from the White House? Or more accurately stated by the New York Times---Is there in fact an "unspoken" arrangement between the US and Russia on Iran thus throwing the Ukrainians under the bus?

Second core question might be---when does "an incursion" become "an invasion"?

[OUTLAW 09]

AP and I use to go in circles when he saw me mention "an altered state of reality" concerning Russia.

But one does have to wonder just what "altered reality they do work in" with is comment from today.

Maybe inherently lying is a way of life for the Russian elite---it was under Soviet days so I guess it was simply easier for them to continue in Russian times.

So are they really thinking they are "fooling" the US/EU and NATO?

Russia's defense ministry denies that its troops have entered Ukraine, claims that nobody in Europe believes this.
http://itar-tass.com/politika/1567911 …

NOW the NATO version:

@BBCBreaking: Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine w/ tanks, artillery, air defence systems–NATO commander
http://bbc.in/1xsE1BO

NATO says columns of Russian military equipment have entered east Ukraine; Moscow says there are "no facts". UN Sec Council to meet later.

Russia also forgets that the Ukrainians are holding 143 Russian POWs.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP and I use to go in circles when he saw me mention "an altered state of reality" concerning Russia.

But one does have to wonder just what "altered reality they do work in" with is comment from today.

Maybe inherently lying is a way of life for the Russian elite---it was under Soviet days so I guess it was simply easier for them to continue in Russian times.

So are they really thinking they are "fooling" the US/EU and NATO?

Russia's defense ministry denies that its troops have entered Ukraine, claims that nobody in Europe believes this.
http://itar-tass.com/politika/1567911 …

NOW the NATO version:

@BBCBreaking: Russian combat troops have entered Ukraine w/ tanks, artillery, air defence systems–NATO commander
http://bbc.in/1xsE1BO

NATO says columns of Russian military equipment have entered east Ukraine; Moscow says there are "no facts". UN Sec Council to meet later.

Russia also forgets that the Ukrainians are holding 143 Russian POWs.

And the Russian Defense Ministry wants to seriously explain how a Russian mercenary mistook a Russian Mi 8 for a Ukrainian Mi 8 flying over the Donetsk.

BREAKING #Russian terrorists in #Donetsk mistaking #Russian army Mi-8 heli for #Ukraine one. 1st solid evidence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l17xf7a9Cc

Russian military must really get their net OPSEC in order.

#BREAKINGNEWS RUSSIA MOVES HIGH TECH 1L219M "Zoopark-1M SYSTEMS IN OCCUPIED DONBAS.
seen near Torez by @SHuijboom
pic.twitter.com/CU9HFSSwwk

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems after 2 months of unsuccessful attacks on #Donetsk #airport, Rus forces decided to take the long way. #Avdeevka

#BreakingFootage
The Russian army artillery didn't stop shelling Ukrainian #Avdeevka today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ii-NAdheFAs …

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING #Russia has moved its peacekeeping forces to #Donetsk, #Ukraine concealing insignia.

https://twitter.com/belamova/status/532598114973405185 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw, thanks for the links! All the info about "threat" is this. Should we worry?



About Linderman.



http://www.15min.lt/en/article/world...#ixzz3InRCbqRV

The longer Russia acts in Donbass, the more Russian compatriots will like this kind of "peaceful" and "golden age" future. Especially in EU. People were happy to receive sometimes higher pensions from Russia and spend the money in much more stable enivornment in the west. Today even this pension argument is failing due to rouble dynamics.

I do like this discussion about variables in Ukraine-Russia war. How many you find in Latvia?

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article...bas-insurgency

Some 20 years ago RF minister said.



http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitema...es/337805.html

Until a wooden stake is driven into the heart of the Putin Doctrine---any European country with a Russian minority is at risk---even if it is a single Russian speaker.

Basically he feels he has the god given right (fascist thinking) to defend Russians wherever they reside, and if it expands the Russian Empire along the way so be it.

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---AP use to get extremely agitated with the term ---Russian and Putin are in "an altered state of reality', but these statements by both the Russia UN Ambassador and the Russian NATO Ambassador seem to fit that statement.

So are they simply lying and or they telling the truth?---the facts on the ground speak volumes.

One has to wonder what they have been smoking the last few months?

#Russia in the #UN: Claims on Russian army being deployed into #Ukraine is propagandistic falsification.

#Russian ambassador to #NATO: The media storm around heightened activity of #Russian air force is propaganda of the West.

Solid evidence show the #Russian 15th MSBR is disguised as #Luhansk terrorists unit "Vityaz". https://www.facebook.com/irakli.koma...60793480700568 …
pic.twitter.com/oGTp37xaO8

Russia completed forming of their military detachments for actions in the rebel-held area of east #Ukraine Tymchuk.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/11/13/7044089/ …

#SBU confirms destruction of Russian missile #batallion near #Dokuchayevsk
http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/sbu...hayevsk_327162 …

#Russian military are laying mines in the waters of #Azov Sea near #Mariupol, 11Nov explosion could be result
http://www.unian.net/politics/10086