Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

At the beginning of the Crimea event and then eastern Ukraine I often stated here that the sanctions should have gone straight to sectorial levels and then straight at Putin--but some SWJ commenters felt differently. Sanctions should have as well focused on the Russian population as well in order to give them a "wake up" call on what is ongoing inside the Ukraine

They put emphasis on "negotiations" instead of confrontation---and now with the Russian peacekeeping army safely inside the eastern Ukraine.

Had the Russian economy crashed several months ago Putin would not be making the military moves he is today making.

Which way was the correct one?

Too little too late? US/EU discuss new sectoral sanctions ahead of Nov 17 foreign ministers meeting

http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/...kraine-worsens …

[OUTLAW 09]

VIDEO #Ukraine film crew captures #Russia terrorists mortar attack in #Avdiivka #Donetsk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o4H...UWPJ6cWd8kwIlQ … pic.twitter.com/pe6mP1K2Ga

NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Shelling and attack continued from terrorist side, in all directions of ATO zone, 5 UA soldiers lost, 19 wounded

6 towns and villages in #Luhansk were under Russian mortar and artillery fire overnight,including #Krymske,#Shchastya and #Stanichno_Luhansk

From today Interfax:
09:25 NATO's claims of Russian armored hardware crossing Ukraine border not supported by evidence - Pankin

[OUTLAW 09]

Why is it that the Russian mercenaries in "New Russia" seem to act like "Nazi's"?

Left: Agitation Novorossia, 2014. Right - album cover neo-Nazi rock band "Vandal", 2007
pic.twitter.com/qFevFslG3g

[OUTLAW 09]

OSCE saw truck with "Gruz 200" - military code for soldiers killed in action - crossing from Ukraine to Russia
http://www.osce.org/node/126629

@OSCE_SMM Taking dead soldiers from #Ukraine to #Russial? Puzzling, RF says conflict is UA internal pic.twitter.com/yFk7urVlo9

OSCE says on Nov 11 van with sign 'Cargo 200' (military code for killed soldiers) crossed from Russia to Ukraine, then back few hours later.

More examples of “altered state of reality”
MFA spksmn: those claiming Russian troops in Ukraine are trying to "justify their actions, such as military exercises" near Russia's borders

Russian MFA spokesman calls for "sanity" from EU leaders, hopes they stop exerting "sanctions pressure" on his country

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Lukashevich: We cannot help but note the increasing bias of the #OSCE Mission in covering the situation in Donbas

And no Russian troops in the Ukraine:
#Russian terrorists in #Ukraine have the latest #Russian army upgraded version Strela-10M4. pic.twitter.com/Mf3jY6xiEz

BUT then this:
Official #death_certificate, Russian families receive from MoD.
Does not include location of son's death.
pic.twitter.com/XUGXxW2mTF

[OUTLAW 09]

The Ukrainian SF guerrilla war is still continuing with results.

Partisans inform & send regards to #GRU General Staff of liquidating two 30 year smth operatives in #Ukraine.
pic.twitter.com/GdAHFPKBVp

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems more actual Russian troops "got lost" and captured by the Ukrainian Army.

Two #Russian servicemen were detained near #Donetsk airport, #Ukraine. Get lost again?
http://dlvr.it/7W0HN9

Now they are tightening up there OPSEC and moves totally new Russian artillery radar into the Donstsk.

#Report: The Russian army ordered again to abandon the use of Russian state symbols at all military units, making the identification harder.

A convoy of #Russian Mobile Artillery Radars moving towards #Donetsk Nov.12 2014 1St: SNAR-10 "Jaguar" 2d:ARK-1"Lynx" pic.twitter.com/XWCOzHul5b

[OUTLAW 09]

Even the Russian mercenaries are now in the "altered state of reality" now.

Luhansk chief terrorist Carpentry says, the region will ask to join #Russia because #Ukraine won't pay the "LC state budget".

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Now just how will the EU/NATO/US respond to this---let's see if this is actual or fake---will be extremely interesting if true.

Ukrainian official says MH17 shot down by RUSSIAN team/crew.
http://bit.ly/1voUBVy

Also see http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...not-local.html …
pic.twitter.com/MUUzSoESMx

Scoop of the year!
#Malaysia prosecutors have proof & will indict #Russia's "highest authorities" for providing men & missile to down #MH17.

Commander of #Russia Army Salyukov, an officer and 2 NCO's of the Russian Army, who fired the Buk and a bunch of #Donetsk rebel leaders.

#Putin will get off the hook for "diplomatic reasons"... #Malaysia discussing now with #Netherlands, #Australia when to go public. #MH17

[OUTLAW 09]

Written by a Russian who grew up in the Soviet days and made the post Soviet transition to Russia and then left Russia for the West.

Goes a long way in explaining why Putin and his inner circle are in their "altered state of reality" of a world of "lies" which they believe are in fact the "truth".

Well worth the read.

http://schumatsky.de/Russia-is-a-lie.htm

[OUTLAW 09]

Now just how will the EU/NATO/US respond to this---let's see if this is actual or fake---will be extremely interesting if true.

Ukrainian official says MH17 shot down by RUSSIAN team/crew.
http://bit.ly/1voUBVy

Also see http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...not-local.html …
pic.twitter.com/MUUzSoESMx

Scoop of the year!
#Malaysia prosecutors have proof & will indict #Russia's "highest authorities" for providing men & missile to down #MH17.

Commander of #Russia Army Salyukov, an officer and 2 NCO's of the Russian Army, who fired the Buk and a bunch of #Donetsk rebel leaders.

#Putin will get off the hook for "diplomatic reasons"... #Malaysia discussing now with #Netherlands, #Australia when to go public. #MH17

Now appears the "somehow and somewhere" Russia has found new information concerning the shot down of MH17---seems as if the Russians are trying to get ahead of anything that is headed their way.

Let's see the latest from the Russian government and their news agencies was a poorly done photo shopped explanation using their own "alleged radar tracks" which the Russian news agency stated that it was the Ukrainian AF and their jet which shot down MH17.

That one hour TV presentation with great fanfare was shot apart within two hours by the open source social media.

At first the Russians "claimed" it was a "captured BUK" that shot down the MH17 but that was also disproved by the open source social media very thoroughly actually.

THEN late last week a just taken local Russian video at the exact scene of the air crash surfaced in which it was geo tagged as being accurate and in the translations one of the men stated a missile had been fired and that the missile had hit the plane.


MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

#Lukashevich: We are aware of newly uncovered data related to the airplane crash and its causes, which require close scrutiny #MH17

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

#Lukashevich: We reaffirm our readiness for constructive cooperation with other countries and competent international organisations #MH17


mfa_russia: Lukashevich: We support the efforts to determine the causes of the tragedy and to bring the guilty parties to justice #MH17

[OUTLAW 09]

An average day in the Ukrainian crisis.

On border #Ukraine/#Russia|n division airlifted 336th Marine Brigade of Baltic Fleet. http://bit.ly/1p2Du9l #Ukraina
pic.twitter.com/MfpkDF0C8y

#Russia: #US weapon deliveries to #Ukraine would violate #Geneva Agreement

US among those who sparked conflict in #Ukraine and their arms supplies will only fuel tensions – Russian Security Council Secretary

From Interfax: 17:39 U.S. ONE OF INITIATORS OF UKRAINIAN CONFLICT, IT IF SELLS ARMS TO UKRAINE, CONFLICT WILL SPREAD - PATRUSHEV

NOTICE: the Russian SCS does not mention that is is exactly Russian heavy weapons and fighters that is fueling tensions---one has to love the Russia doublespeak.

Sweden to the OSCE @SwedeninATOSCE
EU deeply regrets that Russia again has objected to meaningful expansion of the @OSCE OSCE observation mission on Russian-Ukrainian border

NOTICE: Russian FM continues to throw at the Ukrainians they need to adhere to the Minsk agreements which Russia signed and has not implemented a single point of the agreements.

Great article on exactly just how Russia “lies”
http://schumatsky.de/Russia-is-a-lie.htm …
pic.twitter.com/MNsGiCOD2S

Putin: "Colour revolutions" wrought by extremists working f foreign geopolitical interests must be prevented i Russia
http://www.interfax.ru/408400

#Russia suddenly dialling up to 11 the hysteria over #NATO expansion (a decade or more ago). Making it sound like cause of all problems.

Strelkov says Russian soldiers led the decisive counter-attack against Ukraine, but had orders not to take Mariupol.
http://zavtra.ru/content/view/kto-tyi-strelok/ …

[OUTLAW 09]

If the interviewee ie Girkin is correct then the West is asking Putin the wrong question---instead of are there Russian military inside the Ukraine we should be asking when did the Russian Security Service FSB/KGB enter the Ukraine with their own troops?

http://www.unian.info/politics/10118...in-donbas.html

Girkin says he and his special ops team started conflict in Donbas

20.11.2014 | 17:15

Igor Girkin, the one-time “defense minister” of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, has said that he and his squad of Russian special services soldiers started the war in east Ukraine.

He made the claim in an interview with the Russian right-wing newspaper Zavtra.

"I was me who pulled the trigger of war,” Girkin said.

“If our squad had not crossed the border, everything would have come to an end, like in Kharkiv, like in Odesa,” Girkin said, referring to failed attempts earlier in the year to overthrow the local authorities in these cities.

“There would have been a few dozen killed, burnt, arrested - and that would have been it. But this flywheel war, which is still going on, was started by our group," he said.

He also said that he was not from the military, but from the "secret services," and confirmed that Russian regular army units are involved in the war.

Earlier Girkin said that in the beginning of April, he had crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border with a group of 52 people. The seizure of Ukrainian local government buildings, police stations and security service offices by “separatists” in eastern Ukraine started in mid April this year.

According to the UN, more than four thousand people have been killed in the fighting that has erupted in eastern Ukraine. The organization has also said that the actual number of victims of the war could be much higher.

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference a mercenary "false flag" attack on the OSCE today.

FULL #OSCE REPORT: "One of the soldiers stood up and fired two shots in the direction of the OSCE convoy"
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126926 …

NSDC: The vehicle pointed at by #OSCE was marked with outdated #Ukraine insignia not used at the moment

NSDC: Terrorists used a vehicle marked with #Ukraine army insignia to fire at #OSCE mission

BREAKING: Attack at OSCE rep. was a provocation, Ukr mil. move in ATO zone only in columns, never on single vehicle as attackers-col Lysenko

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia keeps repeating over and over that NATO violated" an agreement to not expand"---this statement which is at the core of the "so called Russian humiliation" has been repeatedly called into question as not being a correct reflection of what actually happened.

Even Gorbi stated during the recent Berlin Wall events that there was never such a NATO agreement.

Seems the Russian leadership just cannot get their historical facts correct.

But Mr Peskov countered by accusing Nato of breaking a historic promise by gradually approaching Russia's borders.

He said the alliance was "attempt[ing] to break the... balance of power".

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems Russia is having a hard time getting their own mercenaries under control:

BREAKINGNEWS THE #DNR REGIME IMPRISONED CHIEF TERRORIST #GIVI FOR FURTHER ATTACKING #DONETSK #AIRPORT.
His men even fought other DNR troops

[Firn]

At the beginning of the Crimea event and then eastern Ukraine I often stated here that the sanctions should have gone straight to sectorial levels and then straight at Putin--but some SWJ commenters felt differently. Sanctions should have as well focused on the Russian population as well in order to give them a "wake up" call on what is ongoing inside the Ukraine

They put emphasis on "negotiations" instead of confrontation---and now with the Russian peacekeeping army safely inside the eastern Ukraine.

Had the Russian economy crashed several months ago Putin would not be making the military moves he is today making.

Which way was the correct one?

As somebody which has advocated early quick and harsh sanctions against Russia I think it is honest to say that we don't know how those might have worked out. I tend to think better at that critical juncture of Ukrainian, Russian and European history but it is unknowable.

[OUTLAW 09]

As somebody which has advocated early quick and harsh sanctions against Russia I think it is honest to say that we don't know how those might have worked out. I tend to think better at that critical juncture of Ukrainian, Russian and European history but it is unknowable.

firn---it is interesting that if the EU had gone straight to the sectorial sanctions the ruble would have started it's fall far early---the fall is still not over as the forex hedge fund guys are waiting to see where the CB is going to go before they start their push again--the falling ruble and the selected freezing of the banks and their owners have hit in fact Putin's inner circle.

IMO the next round should actually go after the personal slush fund that Putin has built ie 40B USD---not bad for a former KGB officer in 1989 who came back to the SU with virtually no savings.

That has gotten Putin's attention---oil has also slowed a tad but it is at 78 and looking to go to 75 and then will hold before falling to 70 where OPEX is willing to see it stabilize at. The Russian 2015 budget was originally built around 115 which is what everyone was looking at in 2014.

IMO Putin is not sure where exactly to go now as the clans around him are in turmoil among themselves---some pushing for a direct invasion others saying the time is not right.

Check the series of Putin comments over the last 12 hours---they enter around stopping the "color revolts" from hitting Russia---that is really what this is all about to begin with and secondly really look at his suggestions in 2010 of a combined Russia/EU free trade zone he proposed and the EU tended to ignore. He envisioned that free trade zone basically under Russia influence both politically and militarily and the US would have been left out in the cold.

He has a deep fear of the TTIP discussions between the US and the EU as Russia and the EEU will be cut out of that free trade zone.

Taken from his comments---check this comment and then as yourself is it not the Putin Doctrine exactly what he is accusing the West/color revolts of?

#Putin: In today's world the extremism is used as a tool for redrawing geopolitical & sphere of influences.

What is interesting is that the Russian propaganda has been so effective in the Donbas in convincing the Russian speakers that the Ukrainian government had not been supporting the Donbas when in fact in 2012/2013 they received almost 20 times back in funds from the government than they paid into the government--not bad.

Initial estimates are saying Russia is being forced to cover 20M USD per day of fighting in the Ukraine---the question is how long will he be able to continue that load on top of supporting the Crimea?

[OUTLAW 09]

I also wrote a number of times that the Russians have been in violation on a number of treaties and agreements;

1. INF violation
2. Budapest Memo
3. Helsinki Agreements
4. and they failed to destroy a large amount of armored assets (under OSCE agreements they signed) that are now currently in the Ukraine
5. also in violation of the Russia/NATO Basic Agreements

AND this confirms the Russians were and are in violation of the OSCE disarmament agreements they themselves signed.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: CFE treaty "is 'dead' for us, and we are not returning to it"
http://sputniknews.com/politics/2014...014919548.html …

Politics
15:28 19.11.2014(updated 18:02 19.11.2014)

137680
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia has suspended the implementation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

MOSCOW, November 19 (Sputnik) — Russia has suspended the implementation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), considering it "dead," and will not return to it, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday.

"We have stopped the implementation [of the CFE Treaty], and it is 'dead' for us, and we are not returning to it," Lavrov said during a government meeting in the lower house of parliament.

"The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe does not work for us. After the Warsaw Pact had been dissolved and the old [version of the] Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe had been adapted to the situation when there was no Warsaw Pact anymore, we ratified it in its adapted version, while NATO refused to do it. We waited for several years, as you know, and said, 'Sorry, then.' We do not consider the old CFE Treaty something obligatory for us, so we suspended our observance of the treaty in accordance with the stipulated provisions," the minister said.

The original CFE Treaty was signed in 1990 by 16 NATO and six Warsaw Pact members setting equal limits for each bloc on five key categories of conventional armaments and military hardware, including tanks, combat armored vehicles, artillery, assault helicopters and combat aircraft.

An “adapted” version of the CFE treaty was signed in 1999, but NATO members refused to ratify it until Russia withdrew troops from Georgia and the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdnestria, a criterion Russia regards as an “artificial linkage.” In December 2007, Russia imposed a unilateral moratorium on the CFE treaty, citing it’s “irrelevance” over NATO's plans to increase its military presence in Eastern Europe and the alliance's refusal to ratify the adapted version. In November 2011, NATO member states said they would no longer exchange information on conventional weapons and troops with Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

Gorbi states Putin starts to believe himself God like or near it.

Gorbachev believes Putin repeats his mistakes because he begins to consider himself God - Unian
http://www.unian.net/world/1011994

You know the situation is bad when Gorbachev says that you need to leave:

[OUTLAW 09]

The constant threats by Putin and the Russian leadership about the use of tactical nuclear weapons is not simply for show and it is serious--it is about time the US civilian leadership fully understand the finger on the nuclear button by Putin is serious and he will use it as he perceives the West to be weak and unwilling to stand in his way.

Just another comment from the Russian peanut gallery that supports use of nuclear weapons against the West.

Top Russian pundits: #Russia should privately threaten the West w/ a nuclear strike in response to economic sanctions
http://youtu.be/WOnGtgJmOhs

Appears that the Russian clans are getting concerned about their potential economic demise.