Russian Commanders Said Forcing Draftees to Sign Up for Longer Terms http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com....html?spref=tw …
Busy weekend up here in N Europe "NATO fighter jets scramble multiple times to escort Russian planes over Baltic Sea"Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
http://news.err.ee/v/politics/b7c9c2...D-lSaQ.twitter …
NATO Intercepts Russian Bombers Over Baltic: Kremlin accused of increasing airspace incursions
http://youtu.be/o6dhe37uGkA
Russian Commanders Said Forcing Draftees to Sign Up for Longer Terms http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com....html?spref=tw …
Outlaw09,
You provide an interesting contrast in recent posts, with the continuities in the Russian approach, now known popularly as 'Little Green Men', from the Soviet era and today alongside the contrasts - notably the lack of an all-embracing adherence to discipline or following orders.
Whenever this episode, a war, actually ends we should reflect on the impact on both sides of the use of social media. I am still amazed that we get contemporary Russian military social media updates.
On a different theme, the excellent FT article indicated that in "rebel" areas there is no heating, little food and conditions are unlikely to improve. Perhaps one day, after the first heavy snow blanket, we will be "treated" to footage of frozen 'New Russians'. Somehow I don't expect a rush in the West to give aid.
davidbfpo
David---two comments---the FSB has been fighting a totally lost battle on getting Russian service personnel to not use social media and it is killing them from an open source perspective---you will see a input coming up of a new Russian SIGINT site---on the old days it would never be revealed as it was a "state secret"---so much for "state secrets".
#Putin builds spy base 5 miles from #Finland, to be staffed with 3000 SIGINT experts and 7000 infantry:
https://translate.google.com/transla...-text=&act=url …
Secondly---the social media is so dynamic that is changing literally minute to minute and would keep a team of analysts busy just chasing the inputs for verification---BUT European social media has really stepped up and validates as fast as they can and are getting really good on the cooperation front--so good that Russia has stepped up the "trolling" against a number of the key players.
There was photo that came online over the weekend of supposedly of a Ukrainian soldier sleeping outdoors and covered in about four inches of snow---then it was discovered--not Ukrainian troops ---rather Russian troops.
Here is a photo of Russians encamped along the Ukrainian border---if you have seen photos of the Ukrainians they are light years ahead of the Russians in coping with the weather--there is a saying---93% of the Ukraine is free 7% occupied---and it appears that the 93% are fully aware of the blight of the Ukrainian military and are supporting them in multiple ways to make their encampments more sustainable which the Russian soldier is not getting. When a military sees just how motivated the home front is they fight at a different level and can sustain rougher conditions than the Russian conscripts.
https://informnapalm.org/3652-s-pervym-snegom …
pic.twitter.com/c1eQqJXmN8
Notice the next to last photo in the series---that is the typical Russian winter uniform---you will see it by the hundreds in eastern Ukraine and there is no Russian equipment in the Ukraine per the Russian FM?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2014 at 02:01 PM.
Another perfect example of the current "altered state of reality" all of the current Russian leadership "seems" to be in or just what are they "smoking"?
Seems that the Deputy Russian FM simply forgot the Secret portion of the Stalin-Ribbentrop treaty when Hitler "gave the Baltics" to Stalin.
Russian Deputy MFA Sergei Ryabkov compared annexation of #Crimea to Baltics JOINING Soviet Union in 1940.
Maybe the solution to the Ukrainian problem is to have all Russian decision makers reread the Stalin/Ribbentrop agreements to include the Secret portion.
But again Putin declared them to be bad in 2009 but great in 2014.
The Russian Ukrainian mercenaries seem to have problems with their "new" technology. The vest must have been "Chinese".
Pro-Russia rebel "Motorola" is apparently filmed accidentally wounding 1 of his men when testing a bulletproof vest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJCM_zI-MGo …
#Ukraine troops near #Donetsk Airport shot down #Russia "Tachyon" recon drone the second such
http://bit.ly/1ATpxfA pic.twitter.com/616XPAbiPO
Another translation of the hacked 1.7G of Russian MVD internal documents.
https://doc-10-3s-docs.googleusercon...Nzg?e=download …
Hacked documents reveal Rostov Oblast MVD special police training plans for 2014 including UAV employment
Only (!) five Russian bombers (possibly carrying nuclear weapons armed/unarmed?) over Baltic today: 1 Tu-22, 4 Tu-95
pic.twitter.com/MTjD30RlB1
The skies in the Baltic since Friday seem to be littered with the entire Russian AF==and yet the US is more concerned with black flag waving radical islamists.
4x Su-27, 4x Su-24, 4x Su-34, 2x MiG-31, 1x Tu-22, 1x An-12, 1x An-26, 4x Tu-95
By the way these aircraft form a very very serious Russian nuclear strike package.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-08-2014 at 07:27 PM.
The North Fleet submarine Obninsk (671 RTMK) has launched а sea-based cruise missile.
It could be SS-N-27 Sizzler (Kalibr).
Today's RU AF numbers in the Baltics
NATO #QRA jets on 8Dec. scrambled to intercept #Russia|n Armed Forces 1x An-72, 2x Il-76, 2x An-12, 2x An-26 over the #Baltic Sea
Serious Russian ground activity------
BREAKING: heavy artillery attack on Kolesnnykivka from RF teritorry with armor-infantry attack from south occupied teritorry of Ukraine
HEAVY outoging fire next to the live cam in #Donetsk. Ears bleeding now.
Excellent analysis of the coming Minsk talks---only a portion translated out of the Ukrainian.
The end of "New Russia": Putin was on the verge of defeat
12/08/2014 20:00
At the talks in Minsk should decide, whether the Kremlin will reach its strategic goals or be defeated, writes Ivan Yakovina in an article for "New time".
The next round of talks to resolve the situation in the east of Ukraine will take place in Minsk already on 9 December. If it will not be moved, it is planned that this time the parties will agree not only on new peace initiatives and mechanisms for the implementation of the old ones, which were agreed in September, but in fact remained only on paper.
A new round of talks will be held in a fundamentally new environment than in September. Then, just after the half-life of the boiler and Ilovaisky front, the Ukrainian side was in a losing position. Poroshenko was necessary by any means to stabilize the situation in the east, not only to stop the attack on the Mariupol, but also to hold parliamentary elections with a decent result for yourself.
In many ways, that's why the September agreement to the Ukrainian side were far from ideal and caused a lot of criticism in Kiev. Discontent was caused by the political part of the agreement: de facto recognition of the government guerrillas in the Donets Basin, contain the promise of the occupied territories, as well as provide them with a "special status" that was seen by many as the first step toward federalization of the country to the Kremlin scenario.
However, neither the Ukrainian leadership nor the separatist leaders to fulfill their commitments too seriously did not. In uncontrolled Kiev District Donetsk and Lugansk regions held by anyone (even Russia) not recognized "local elections", which gave rise to refuse to perform its obligations in the political and financial part of the agreement. Truce and withdrawal of troops, which have also been registered in Minsk memorandum also did not happen.
In short, at first glance, no significant changes in the agreement did not bring the sides were "at their". However, it is not quite so: the overall situation around the time of the frozen conflict has evolved quite rapidly, and almost always - in a favorable direction for Ukraine.
Firstly, Russian President Vladimir Putin has undergone a total obstruction by Western leaders and China at the G20 summit in Brisbane. Master of the Kremlin made it clear that in the fable about the non-interference of the Russian Federation in the conflict, no one believes, and any aggravation of his will entail the most severe sanctions, including the shutdown of Russian banks from the international system SWIFT. Without going into details, we can say that this measure would be a knockout blow to financial institutions, which are already under the sway sanctions. This threat to the West practically neutralized the threat of escalation of hostilities on the part of the separatists. Now assault Mariupol or Debaltseve would be a death sentence the Russian banking system and, as a consequence, the economy as a whole.
Second, the cold weather has demonstrated a complete inability to separatist leaders to establish at least some semblance of peace in the occupied territories without external financial support. Freezing Lugansk and Donetsk is actually on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe, smaller cities have already crossed this line: if you call a spade a spade, there was a famine. Especially hard for pensioners who are not capable of independent movement. In the absence of normal working of social and health services, they slowly die of cold in their homes without food and medicines.
Third, among the separatist groups began bickering over dwindling resources and support from Moscow. About any unified leadership in the so-called DNR and the LC and the question. Inability and unwillingness to adhere to the truce militants largely due to this fragmentation and a lack of unity of command in their ranks. In this circumstance, there is another effect: various separatist groups can not agree on its strategic objectives. Some want independence, while others - joining Russia, and others - broad autonomy within Ukraine. And each of these concepts until recently had his supporters in Moscow, seeking a political decision by Vladimir Putin.
From the combination of these factors to the beginning of December the situation separatist entities become quite difficult. Kremlin hopes that after Ilovaysk Ukraine agree to recognize the separatists and legislate federalization did not materialize, and the financial isolation of the occupied regions of Ukraine led to the collapse of the local economy. Moscow was on hand with lard weapon destroyed a region whose population is starving and freezing.
In this situation, the Russian leadership remained four options:
- Go to the escalation of the conflict, to force Ukraine to announce the federalization and take care of the Donbas;
- Quit the project "New Russia" to fend for themselves and to close the border with Ukraine, in fact, conceded defeat on all fronts;
- "Freeze" the conflict by taking on the content of the Donbas
- Try to achieve their goals negotiations.
The first option, advocated by the Kremlin "hawks", was rejected for the reasons mentioned above - it is fraught with the collapse of the Russian economy, social upheaval and popular unrest.
The second is unacceptable for ideological reasons: the population, which for almost a year are taught that "there is our people," categorically not understand or accept this decision. Already, people like infantry Girkin explicitly accuse the Kremlin of betrayal "New Russia" and quickly gaining popularity in the most conservative part of Russian society. In addition, in Moscow, everyone understands that the rejection of Donbass international sanctions do not remove, the next in line would be the Crimea. The Kremlin is imperative that some tension in the east of Ukraine retained as long as possible. Capitulation is not suitable at all.
The third option is extremely burdensome for financial reasons. Now in Donetsk and Lugansk region only live about two million people. Russian budget bursting at the seams because of falling oil prices, can hardly keep up with the current obligations. The content of such a large number of people it just does not pull. Moscow, however, and can not tolerate in the region of mass destruction population from hunger and cold: as in the case of surrender, just do not understand the Russian population. Therefore, any handouts in the form of "humanitarian aid" in the Donbass, probably will. But fully provide region Moscow will not: it would be a de facto recognition of occupation, as well as the rejection of the strategic objective - the federalization of Ukraine with the Donetsk and Lugansk regions as agents of Russian influence in Kiev in the country.
Remains a fourth option: negotiation. The Russian leadership does not hide that he hoped soon as possible to achieve the stated goal: to implant itself controlled by Donbass in Ukraine. Any talk of independence and even more so - in the region to join Russia in Moscow is not conducted. President Putin said this directly: "East of Ukraine and the rest of it need each other." And this despite the fact that in his early speeches Donbass he styled "Novorussia", denying Ukraine in the historical right to sovereignty over these regions.
Strategic objective of the Kremlin - the reintegration of the separatist regions of Ukraine, it is much more tactical trivial: Kiev to pay to get militant leaders. To do this, Putin is going to use Ukrainian prisoners as hostages, as it is not particularly shy, said a few days ago: "Russian [...] supports additional steps to exchange prisoners. And, of course, assume that will recover the economic life, and all the elements of a blockade of the region will be excluded their practical life. "
Since the agreement was concluded by the prisoners in September (all in all), but is not executed, the "additional steps" in conjunction with the requirement of "exception elements blockade" can only mean one thing: the Kremlin intends to sell Ukrainian prisoners of subsidies from Kiev to address " DNI / LC ". Sounds, of course, incredibly cynical, but it is quite in the style of the Russian president, nothing particularly surprising here.
At the same time in the unrecognized republics began hunting for rebel leaders who are trying to exercise at least some independence. Russian secret services and their local minions rather unceremoniously caught unnecessarily business warlords, ferrying them to Russia or directly to a better world. Particularly hard eliminated violent supporters of independence of Donbass, ie separatists in the literal sense of the word.
In fact, in the Donbass is building a small vertical of power (a kind of appendix Russian) based on negative selection: a guide get only the most unscrupulous, lack of initiative, and (preferably) silly people who do not ask questions and do not try to be clever and stupid to execute directives from Moscow. Such, for example, is Alexander Zakharchenko - the leader of the so-called DNR. Since hostilities suspended from him and others like him need only one thing: control.
RIA Novosti/Rossija Segodnja is spinning the 8 month old story about 2 USA UAV-s downed in Crimea in Special edition dedicated to 100th annivesary of Russian air defence forces.
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20141208/1037191714.html
We spoke about this episode already in March.
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...UAV#post153598
Last edited by kaur; 12-08-2014 at 08:48 PM.
This large amount of RU AF and Naval unit activity in the Baltic Sea are having the following effect in the Baltics---and notice by the why no response to the Russian increased activities either by NATO and or the US.
#Lithuania has set its forces of fast reaction to combat readiness due to increased RU military actions in the region.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-09-2014 at 06:25 AM.
The Ukrainian Army went into a planned ceasefire mode today at 10am and have orders to only fire back if fired on.
AND it was supposedly worked out with the assistance of Russia and the OSCE--apparently they forget to tell the mercenaries and their troops in the field.
New "silence regime" has been already broken twice by another party under Debaltseve – Viktor Myzhenko, Chief of the General Staff
This is an interesting photo taken by Russian troops one day after the shot down of MH17---notice the individual on the right side of the photo---that is the new standard Russian field uniform only seen recently---definitely not seen in the Ukraine prior to the shot down--has only been seen inside the Ukraine starting in the late August timeframe.
Russian army posing w/ #MH17 - which was most likely shot down by a #Russia|n BUK missile killing 298 in e. #Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/tqUMDcXngv
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-09-2014 at 12:39 PM.
It now seems that the Ukrainian "separatists" do not like what some of the "Russian terrorists" are doing---a general complaint list--interesting to see this development and yet the locals "voted" for Russian annexation.
By Johan Karlsen, Luhansk blogger
12.07.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine
We have received information from inside sources that the local bandits and representatives of various illegal armed groups, who fight in eastern Ukraine, are very concerned by the not quite correct attitude from the Russian Federation and international Russian terrorists towards them and their loved ones. From the list of grievances towards Russian terrorists, we can highlight the following:
◾A bad attitude towards those who have moved to the Russian Federation, members of the families of the local bandits (in particular, resettlement not to the places they wanted);
◾The blatant rejection of unlawful terrorist groups, on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts [regions];
◾The lack of a normal volume of humanitarian aid, not with missiles but with food, clothes and medicine;
◾The use of local gangs on the front line, as cannon fodder;
◾The destruction of separate units of local bandits in the rear;
◾The frank rejection of local bandits towards Cossack gangs which the Russian leadership refuses to “resolve”;
◾The seizure of business and personal property on the occupied territories belonging to the local bandits;
Attempts to influence this situation using mind games, by manipulating information, as in “it is all Ukrofascists,” does not adequately work anymore. The reason is that the creators of “vato”-news and “vato”-fakes are often very far from the realities of what is happening, and the fruits of their imaginations are radically different from the picture that is seen by the direct participants.
Due to the fact that in recent times these precedents of fights (one of the last ones is covered in the previous repost) are becoming more frequent and more violent, it highlights the prerequisites to not only an active confrontation between local terrorists and the Russians, but also the expansion of this conflict onto the territory of the Russian Federation.
It is known from trusted sources that in revenge, the embittered representatives of the illegal armed groups are planning to undertake a number of acts of sabotage and terrorism; for this purpose, through “refugees,” materials for explosives and weapons were smuggled into the territory of the Russian Federation.
One of the first signs, is the explosion that was heard in the early morning of 11.27.2014 in Rostov-on-Don [Russia], when an unknown person fired into the window of one of the cafes from a hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher, presumably, an RPG-7. At the same time they detained a 25-year old “unknown ex-Spetsnaz.” And, by the looks of things, it is not the last such “show.”
Just as the Ukrainian Army developed out of being rag tag their use of UAVs---did not have a single one when the Crimea started--has been rag tag as well --everything from local student made to professionally purchased models---but as they have started to use them their counter battery fire has vastly improved.
This UAV had night time abilities.
Great video of Ukr army using a UAV to direct mortar fire, #NAF mortar destroyed at 4:30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__k4...ature=youtu.be …
A solid analysis article which goes into social media as a form of analysis with subtle critique.
http://europeans101.blogspot.ru/2014...l?spref=tw&m=1
Professional #Russian_Army troops use the D-30 artillery in #Donbas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHXPzWo4e08 …
This video depicts why the artillery unit mentioned above is indeed Russian troops.
Those D-30 crews are regular RU arty grunts. The almost simultaneous lanyard pull on fire command (14:04) gives it away.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-09-2014 at 03:27 PM.
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