Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

Next russian version: The sleigh of Santa Claus ran into MH-17.

Russian "secret witness" Voloshin right on time to counter @obk secret witness showing rebels with Buk shot down. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...ovements/#5862 …

Snob dismantles conspiracy theory on Sukhoi fighter jet shooting down MH17 http://snob.ru/selected/entry/85644 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin might continue to fight in eastern Ukraine but regardless of his high-powered UW strategy he has effectively now lost.

The two things he wanted to hinder 1) EU association and 2) NATO both are now on their way.

BREAKING UKRAINE ABOLISHED NON-ALIGNED STATUS

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is an interview by the Estonian President who is calling a spade a spade and points to the failure of the Transatlantic community for the current Russian problems.

Failure of 1994 Budapest memorandum to guarantee #Ukraine' integrity may have far-reaching implications for generations - #Estonia president

"I don’t know what country in future would ever give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for secur guarantee" - #Estonia President

The Transatlantic community paved the way for #Russian aggression on #Ukraine - #Estonia’s President, Toomas Ilves.
http://www.the-american-interest.com...sion-to-stand/ …

He has a very interesting take on US/EU leadership issues since 1994 and he might in fact be totally correct in his assessment.

Toomas Ilves: Well, I don’t think in regional terms, although there are regional manifestations of the deterioration. Since the invasion and annexation of Crimea, we’ve seen the collapse of the Transatlantic security environment as we’ve known it. We could start with the UN charter, which forbids aggression, but in the Transatlantic space the basis for security has been the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, which specifically forbids a change in borders through force or threat of force. That no longer holds.

I would argue that it no longer held after the 2008 invasion of Georgia, but the rest of the Transatlantic community did not buy that. In fact, they let it slide, I would say, first by breaking off negotiations over the EU-Russia partnership as long as Russian troops remained. Then, a month later, with no change in status of foreign troops, Europe claimed, “Thank God common sense prevailed.” That was 2008, so we’ve hit the snooze button a few times; but now, finally, we have the wake-up call.

We have allowed aggression to stand in Georgia, having done nothing and instead gone off on this “peace, love, Woodstock” idea. We’re now in a situation where we have genuine aggression, the collapse of the post-Cold War order, and we see all that on the 25th anniversary of the annus mirabilis of 1989—when we should be celebrating the neo-Hegelian triumph of the Fukuyaman view of the inevitability of liberal democracy. I too have believed all along that we were heading there. Unfortunately, what we’re seeing right now is that it can be turned around. When you have a collapse of order, you can expect all kinds of things.

To the collapse of order we can add the 1990 Paris Charter for Europe, a major summit celebrating the freedom of Eastern Europe—minus the Baltic states, which were excluded—that concluded that all CSCE (OSCE) states have the right to choose their own security environment. What we see in 2014 is not only that you do not have that right—consider the statements by Medvedev and Putin in 2009, that they invaded Georgia to keep it from joining NATO—but now Russia’s rationale for doing what it did is something so minor as Ukraine’s wanting to sign an Association Agreement with the EU.

I’m often stunned by the statements made by people within the European Union as if the EU Association Agreement were the big thing. Estonia signed its Association Agreement ten years before it joined the European Union. Five years before, we began negotiating, having been accepted to begin negotiations. Basically, the Association Agreement provides for teacher/student exchange programs and a slightly reduced tariff rate. This is not European Transatlantic imperialism, advancing to the borders of Russia with its evil designs.

Then, of course, there’s the failure of the 1994 Budapest memorandum, which was supposed to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine (in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arms). This may have far-reaching implications for generations. I don’t know what country in the future would ever give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guarantee.

Look around, and you see all kinds of stuff happening. In Denmark on Bornholm island they have this annual summer festival that involves the entire political elite, and the Russians chose that particular weekend to do a mock bombing on the island with nuclear-armed missiles. Just recently, their bombers were circling Guam. They’ve been doing things in Norway, in Japan, Portugal. The worst part about it in terms of standard security is that they’re doing this unscheduled, and flying with their transponders switched off. In another incident, a Danish SAS passenger plane came within 100 meters of a Russian plane that the pilots didn’t see or know was there. This is a kind of behavior that should be far more alarming than some of the Putinversteher tend to think.

[OUTLAW 09]

The new Russian information warfare motto especially on MH17:

It is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled—Mark Twain

Not a single Russian troll could mention type of A2A missile capable of downing a B777 with damage observed

Suprised there is not a book yet on Kremlin's usage of social media to influence people. Highly interesting topic.

@EliotHiggins Suprised the articles does not mention plane registrations. Thumb empty maybe?

I get the feeling this RTL report has really worried those who want to point the finger of blame for #MH17 away from Russia

Problem is, there's only so many lies you can tell before people start asking for evidence, and were past that point

.@EliotHiggins The info army is advancing w/ most of its 'troops' on this.
Must be worried.

Next possible Russian excuse for the shot down other than themselves:

Next week: @lifenews_ru reports that Yarosh's business card was found in MH17

Jan 2015: @RT_com says Savchenko shot down MH17

February: ???

[OUTLAW 09]

One of the basic problems for the US policy of "soft power" when confronted by the Russian UW strategy or what we seem to be calling "hybrid" is an old Stalin saying out of the 30s---paraphrased--"we will hold to agreements/treaties if they help us---we will ignore them when they no longer help us".

One of Putin's first arguments before he hit the NATO expansion and "humiliation" buttons was the Soviet Union illegally gave the Crimea back to the Ukraine.

Then early this week a law was introduced into the Duma to "annual the Soviet 1954 law" that conducted the Crimea shift and now this statement out of Moscow....

This bill is "meant to bring [Crimea] situation into conformity with international law and historical justice."

Not annexation but annulment?
https://meduza.io/news/2014/12/23/ma...ne-v-1954-godu …
Russia to declare illegal 1954 USSR transfer of Crimea to Ukraine.

If "soft power" is the way forward---then how do US decision makers make decisions concerning an aggressive country when they cannot figure out what specific international agreements/treaties will and or will not be adhered to?

It appears we are dealing again with a "Stalin" but we have no historical context with which to make decisions on as that generation of decision makers is long dead and buried.

The Russian problem will be with us a long time going forward. Just as long as the IS will be with us.

There is always a historical problem when annulling the old laws and treaties---something always comes back to bite you---so does Belarus now go to the Ukraine as they relookthe old Soviet laws--they just opened the Russian version of Pandora's Box.

As a friend of mine just pointed out, will that make #Russia liable to hand over Kuban to #Ukraine, as it was part of the same decree?

[OUTLAW 09]

More on those "Russians who are not in the Ukraine"?

These "local rebels" R so NOT local that they misspelled name of town they're occupying.
pic.twitter.com/FTGT3Qv7HB
#Antratsyt #Ukraine

Non- #Ukraine accent. Non-Ukrainian flags. Nonchalant attitude. Yep, those are "local rebels".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPlYgYPWpD0#t=26 …

[OUTLAW 09]

For all the US military dog handlers--you might recognize this.

The bound of the handler and his dog goes deep even during heavy shellings.

Unique photo: somewhere in the #conflictzone in E #Ukraine during shelling

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...986624/photo/1

pic.twitter.com/chzYn95xWs

[OUTLAW 09]

The guerrilla war is full on--there is a law within guerrilla warfare--nickel and dime your opponent into the ground----late last week an attack on the Russian central comms center and now this attack.

The second single point of failure within the Russian UW strategy is in fact an active guerrilla war with a equally strong counter guerrilla war using SF and state security to hold back, kill and or capture sabotage/recon teams which has become on the Ukrainian side more and more effective

#Report
A 122mm artillery grenade exploded at a Russian army camp in #Makeevka, killing 5 and injuring 12 soldiers.
Officially an accident.

Another explosion in a Russian weapons warehouse in #Alchevsk happened, reports say

In #Antratsit the "LC" regime started a large-scale operation to search and neutralize pro-Ukrainian underground fighters

This last report is extremely interesting as it confirms that there is now an underground war also in this area--previously only reported to be occurring in Donetsk.

Actually this single point of failure is a must--as the Ukrainian guerrilla units usually come from the area and know exactly what targets hurt and how to protect the civilian population they are working in.

And the guerrilla war is picking up stream-This is in German.

One guerrilla unit attacked a mercenary checkpoint killing all in the checkpoint then placed a motion sensor on the MG and then left--the mercenaries came back and attacked an empty checkpoint due to the firing MG for over 1.5 hours.

The second unit is credited with killing 12--3 in a bunker, 2 in a listening post and 7 on the street.


Das kann doch nicht wahr sein: Den Checkpoint mit euren eigenen Toten anderthalb Stunden lang mit allen Mitteln unter Beschuss zu nehmen.“

http://crime.in.ua/node/7791

Donezk: Die pro-ukrainischen Partisanen haben 12 Terroristen in die Hölle befördert und gingen auf die Jagd nach „Importaffen“

Mo, 22/12/2014 – 19:14

In einem Stadtbezirk von Donezk haben die Partisanen 12 Terroristen vernichtet: 3 in einem Bunker, 2 auf einem Horchposten und die weiteren 7 auf der Straße.

Darüber berichtet die Befreiungsfront von Regionen Donezk-/Lugansk auf ihre Facebook-Seite:

https://www.facebook.com/FrOsDon/posts/549366451866312

[OUTLAW 09]

This is an interesting comment as it truly reflects the Russian actions for creating the mercenary war and then sending troops into eastern Ukraine.

The question then becomes---just how can Russia take the economic hit--1,2 or 5 years?

Interfax from today
13:18 UKRAINE FAILS TO MEET NATO MEMBERSHIP CRITERIA, MOTHBALLED CONFLICT TO PREVENT ITS ACCESSION TO ALLIANCE - ENVOY KELIN

[OUTLAW 09]

Next possible Russian excuse for the shot down other than themselves:

Next week: @lifenews_ru reports that Yarosh's business card was found in MH17

Jan 2015: @RT_com says Savchenko shot down MH17

February: ???

Russian info war efforts have hit overdrive to counter the RTL article and released photos. Now it is the Ukrainian SBU's fault and then it was a "shaken Ukrainian pilot" of a SU25 that was never in the area of the shot own--seems to be a panic mode approach.

More push back againsy RTL's story -Ukrainian secret services involved in #MH17 disaster over Donbas — Russian source
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/768736

This meme is frantically being propagated by this known paid Russian propagandist:
@StopAgitprop @StopFakingNews

pic.twitter.com/kqVannLLnZ

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian state TV even filming Russian general in Luhansk but still denying that Russian troops there

pic.twitter.com/xLsCVbbEXX



Seargant of Russian Army confirms he was in Luhansk and fought for Russia .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcBG...ature=youtu.be …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian info war efforts have hit overdrive to counter the RTL article and released photos. Now it is the Ukrainian SBU's fault and then it was a "shaken Ukrainian pilot" of a SU25 that was never in the area of the shot own--seems to be a panic mode approach.

More push back againsy RTL's story -Ukrainian secret services involved in #MH17 disaster over Donbas — Russian source
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/768736

This meme is frantically being propagated by this known paid Russian propagandist:
@StopAgitprop @StopFakingNews
pic.twitter.com/kqVannLLnZ

Seems that as fast as the Russian info war media releases an attempt to deflect an ongoing western MH17 that provides even more evidence of Russian involvement---it gets shredded by western social media as being blatantly a "fake". They somehow never get it right.

Whose military plane flying over UKR was allegedly the target? The FAKE-pilot-witness neglected to say. Oops!

Bloggers are making the following suggestion to the Russian info war guys for a new "fake" story on the MH17 shot down.

Calling my shot: a Russian tabloid will run a story tomorrow that the launch site contrail was smoke signal to warn MH17 of a Ukrainian jet.

Fired by the mercenaries trying to "save" the airliner and it's passengers they later robbed.

[OUTLAW 09]

A long but interesting read on Russian Special War in the West in the coming 2015.

Especially the use of three elements of Special War we have seen before during the Cold War.

http://20committee.com/2014/12/23/be...l-war-in-2015/

[OUTLAW 09]

Terrorists open harassing fire at Ukr forces to provoke counter-fire - awaited story by Rus TV
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/916076088403198 …

Russian "Aid" convoy. Turned out to contain 2 bags of rice per truck. Soldiers&equipment smuggled into Ukraine.#MH17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUEacATS_kQ …

Terrorists continue violating ceasefire. Attacks in Debaltseve, Nikishyne and Chermalyk recorded today
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...79041&refid=17 …

Russian armored vehicles in the war in the east of #Ukraine. part 2 http://sirgis.info/2014/12/18/russian_tanks_in_donbass/ …
pic.twitter.com/CI80Ud5E1U

[OUTLAW 09]

Comments from a Russian pilot on their Baltic “trips” flying silent and transponders off.
"The British interceptor pilots are particularly cheeky" - Russian airman (in Russian)
http://www.1tv.ru/news/social/274550 …
pic.twitter.com/Uw0uSdv26F

‘Civic obligation’ to defend Ukraine, says hassid
http://tinyurl.com/kq5m9wk
pic.twitter.com/grtbYqxXeN

Tymchuk: #Russia's FSB security service is hunting Ukrainian partisans in Horlivka. One civilian has been killed
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...83737145015761

Seems the Ukrainian guerrilla war is getting the attention of the Russian State Security-FSB.

Eerie yet powerful aerial footage of a Ukrainian village completely destroyed as a result of Russia's invasion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5F_wOm8OCs …

[OUTLAW 09]

Here is an interview by the Estonian President who is calling a spade a spade and points to the failure of the Transatlantic community for the current Russian problems.

Failure of 1994 Budapest memorandum to guarantee #Ukraine' integrity may have far-reaching implications for generations - #Estonia president

"I don’t know what country in future would ever give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for secur guarantee" - #Estonia President

The Transatlantic community paved the way for #Russian aggression on #Ukraine - #Estonia’s President, Toomas Ilves.
http://www.the-american-interest.com...sion-to-stand/ …

He has a very interesting take on US/EU leadership issues since 1994 and he might in fact be totally correct in his assessment.

Toomas Ilves: Well, I don’t think in regional terms, although there are regional manifestations of the deterioration. Since the invasion and annexation of Crimea, we’ve seen the collapse of the Transatlantic security environment as we’ve known it. We could start with the UN charter, which forbids aggression, but in the Transatlantic space the basis for security has been the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, which specifically forbids a change in borders through force or threat of force. That no longer holds.

I would argue that it no longer held after the 2008 invasion of Georgia, but the rest of the Transatlantic community did not buy that. In fact, they let it slide, I would say, first by breaking off negotiations over the EU-Russia partnership as long as Russian troops remained. Then, a month later, with no change in status of foreign troops, Europe claimed, “Thank God common sense prevailed.” That was 2008, so we’ve hit the snooze button a few times; but now, finally, we have the wake-up call.

We have allowed aggression to stand in Georgia, having done nothing and instead gone off on this “peace, love, Woodstock” idea. We’re now in a situation where we have genuine aggression, the collapse of the post-Cold War order, and we see all that on the 25th anniversary of the annus mirabilis of 1989—when we should be celebrating the neo-Hegelian triumph of the Fukuyaman view of the inevitability of liberal democracy. I too have believed all along that we were heading there. Unfortunately, what we’re seeing right now is that it can be turned around. When you have a collapse of order, you can expect all kinds of things.

To the collapse of order we can add the 1990 Paris Charter for Europe, a major summit celebrating the freedom of Eastern Europe—minus the Baltic states, which were excluded—that concluded that all CSCE (OSCE) states have the right to choose their own security environment. What we see in 2014 is not only that you do not have that right—consider the statements by Medvedev and Putin in 2009, that they invaded Georgia to keep it from joining NATO—but now Russia’s rationale for doing what it did is something so minor as Ukraine’s wanting to sign an Association Agreement with the EU.

I’m often stunned by the statements made by people within the European Union as if the EU Association Agreement were the big thing. Estonia signed its Association Agreement ten years before it joined the European Union. Five years before, we began negotiating, having been accepted to begin negotiations. Basically, the Association Agreement provides for teacher/student exchange programs and a slightly reduced tariff rate. This is not European Transatlantic imperialism, advancing to the borders of Russia with its evil designs.

Then, of course, there’s the failure of the 1994 Budapest memorandum, which was supposed to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine (in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arms). This may have far-reaching implications for generations. I don’t know what country in the future would ever give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guarantee.

Look around, and you see all kinds of stuff happening. In Denmark on Bornholm island they have this annual summer festival that involves the entire political elite, and the Russians chose that particular weekend to do a mock bombing on the island with nuclear-armed missiles. Just recently, their bombers were circling Guam. They’ve been doing things in Norway, in Japan, Portugal. The worst part about it in terms of standard security is that they’re doing this unscheduled, and flying with their transponders switched off. In another incident, a Danish SAS passenger plane came within 100 meters of a Russian plane that the pilots didn’t see or know was there. This is a kind of behavior that should be far more alarming than some of the Putinversteher tend to think.

Notice the Estonian President's use of the German word "Putinversteher".

The Germans have had a long history of blocking anything that they felt would anger Russia and disturb their "Ostpolitik".

Another example:

Mr Steinmeier admits the Bucharest Summit decision in 2008 was concession to #Russia---- Russia veto power in #NATO
http://bit.ly/1AHh1Sg

That is not even counting the North Stream pipeline that has made the former German SPD Chancellor Schroeder a ton of money.

Even now the German SPD FM is trying to find a way to stop the sanctions on Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

Looks like Putin is moving overtly into the Ukraine--Russian military movements and shelling have picked up quickly since yesterday.

So much for a unilateral Ukrainian ceasefire.


Electricity is off throughout entire Crimean peninsula. Mobile phones not working.
http://itar-tass.com/politika/166917...litika/1669171 …

#Russia|ns increasingly fire at #Ukraine forces - 25 times overnight. Used Grad MRLS once
https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/posts/916370301707110 …

OSCE confirms movement of heavy units into Eastern Ukraine. Origin obvious. Putin on the move.
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/126483 …

[OUTLAW 09]

There is always a historical problem when annulling the old laws and treaties---something always comes back to bite you---so does Belarus now go to the Ukraine as they relookthe old Soviet laws--they just opened the Russian version of Pandora's Box.

As a friend of mine just pointed out, will that make #Russia liable to hand over Kuban to #Ukraine, as it was part of the same decree?

More on that Russian Duma bill being considered for passing into law---opens Pandora's Box---sometimes I am not even sure the Russian know what they are doing?

On 30 December #Russia Duma may have a bill on illegality of USSR dissolution
http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/24-dece...have-a-bill-on …

insane!
With that bill #Russia would void the recognition of 14 states!
#Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania #Belarus #Ukraine #Georgia

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian mercenaries and Russians seem to be still having their problems.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmKvMAxSUfg …

Smalltown warlords still have an axe to grind w/ #Russia-appointed 'sellout'/'czar' Plotnitsky in #Luhansk,

[OUTLAW 09]

Now it is Russia that argues that it is NATO that is threatening use of nuclear weapons towards the Russians ---not the Russians towards NATO?

Antonov: "Our special concern is contin'd training of crews from non-nuclear NATO members in piloting nuclear-capable aircraft"

Antonov indicates Kremlin strategy: accuse NATO of raising nuclear threat against Russia, when in fact it is other way round.

Our common problem w/ NATO- terrorism, it's dangerous if weapons o/mass destruction would get into terrorists hands - MoD Russia