Ukraine: non-military aspects (August 2014-December 2015)

[OUTLAW 09]

Notice how the Russians attempted up through yesterday to change the EU Association agreements with the Ukraine.

Russia got a one year delay in order to "fix" to their side of the Russian customs zone so they could not argue later they are being hurt by the EU agreement--the Ukraine gest 8B Euros to balance out the damage done by the delay until Dec 2015.

So was it a win for Russia?

Letter from Min.Ulyukaev to Commissioner De Gucht exposing Russia's true intentions vis-a-vis the DCFTA with Ukraine

pic.twitter.com/kM17iuSsPG

[OUTLAW 09]

There is an interesting shift now ongoing in Russian policy--ie making the Putin Doctrine which means Russia has the inherent right to interfere with any country that has any minority of Russian language speakers--notice not true ethnic but language speakers.

This morning via RIA--the Russian FM is now moving the argument to the inherent right to defend it's "national security"--one if in a rational world would say--defending "national security" is really simple if one declares yes we are in the Ukraine and yes we are pulling out by day X--but no Russia triples down.

NOTE: Russia has come full swing and is now declaring our "national security" is really what we declare it to be and if that involved interfering in a sovereign country so be it.

For today RIA:

MOSCOW, September 17 (RIA Novosti) – Continuing sanction pressure on Russia will only deteriorate the Ukrainian crisis, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

NOTE: just how many times has the US and the EU formerly stated that if Russia truly suspends the weapons and troops into the Ukraine and truly seals their border sanctions come off the table---if AP is correct at least five times in the last six months.

“It is obvious that the continuation of sanction pressure on Russia will not help resolve the internal crisis in Ukraine but will rather deepen the confrontation and complicate dialogue,” Lavrov said in an interview with El Pais newspaper published on Wednesday.

NOTE:---again the FM absolutely does not discuss the potential of Russian involvement via troops and weapons.

The minister stressed that Russia reserves the right to take measures to protect its legitimate interests, including in the sphere of national security.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--another example of the "altered state of reality" in Russian FM comments:

If we use the if and then statements one could build an excellent if--IF the Russians had actually admitted their support of weapons, money and troops to the mercenaries THEN they could have demanded on the ground a full investigation of the MH17 downing.

But because they have never and will never admit that THEN this kind of statement is released WHEN the entire world knows they were involved.

That is "altered thinking"--actually it proves they are simply trapped in their own propaganda now and cannot come out of it as it would means "failure" and "failure" is not a Putin word these days.

MOSCOW, September 17 (RIA Novosti) – Moscow insists on a proper investigation of a Malaysian plane crash in Ukraine that would reveal real causes of the incident, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

“The truth must be found. We decisively insist on that considering that some countries do not show particular enthusiasm over the transparent and accountable investigation,” Lavrov said in an interview with Spanish El Pais newspaper published on Wednesday.

NOTE: the entire world is awaiting Russian admission since , videos of the Buk exist with identification of the Russian Buk unit, voice intercepts exist, eye witnesses exist, fragments of the warhead were found in the bodies, and the Dutch crash investigators stated it was downed by a "likely" ground to air missile. The only thing missing is Russian acceptance for responsibility. And yet Russia keeps putting out these statements and that is not "altered reality"?

“In light of a high profile of the tragedy on the global scale, we believe that such an investigation is vital not only for establishing the true causes of the crash and bringing those responsible to justice. It is also vital for maintaining global peace and security,” the minister said.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw -

Poroshenko provided clarity on what he is prepared to offer the separatists in his negotiations to end the conflict:



So, there will be two major issues: (1) can Poroshenko sell this to the hard-liners in his own parliament and (2) does Russia have sufficient control over the separatists to enforce their compliance pending an agreement? Of course, answers to both questions will seriously call into question the validity of your arguments about Russia's goals, 'rationality', and so-called "altered state of reality". Poroshenko has already delayed Ukraine's treaty with the EU - so it appears that the "irrational" "rogue" Russian state is getting one over on everybody. How are those sanctions doing by the way? Any indication that it will reverse Russian's gains any time soon?

So after all the fighting and destruction, it appears that Kiev is willing to offer the separatists what they had demanded from the very beginning.

AP--notice the sanctions are in fact hitting the Russian economy---the core question is --will Russian fascist advisors around Putin "realize" the connection between their actions and the tanking Russian economy brought on by their own actions.

Based on how fascism feeds and feeds on it's own propaganda I do not see that happening --a that means "failure" in a fascist's eyes.

From Interfax today---another "do no panic statement"

09:21 Economy minister doesn't rule out Russia rating downgrade, but urges calm

Russian leadership is now trapped by their own fascist propaganda and cannot break the cycle to think "rationally" which is where they should have been about four exit ramps ago that was offered to them.

[OUTLAW 09]

Are sanctions working?---this tends to prove they are in fact hitting Russia hard--will they change Russia's stance---check the last sentence and one sees the economy will truly tank before Putin accepts "failure".

From NYTs 17 Sept.

MOSCOW — President Obama has warned Russia that “there will be costs” for its policies in Ukraine. European leaders and the head of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have done the same.

On Tuesday, an influential figure in the Russian political elite and a longtime aide to President Vladimir V. Putin drove home this argument.

European Union and American sanctions have pushed Russia to a tipping point between growth and recession, Aleksei L. Kudrin, a former finance minister, told an audience of Western executives at a conference in Moscow hosted by the American chamber of commerce. Mr. Kudrin then outlined, in unvarnished and detailed terms, what awaits Russia if a fragile cease-fire in the war in eastern Ukraine breaks down: possibily a contraction over 5 percent lasting one to two years.

“The ceasefire is important for everybody, and for Russia most of all,” Mr. Kudrin said. “We should study these consequences, and avoid a worsening of the situation.”

Already, Mr. Kudrin said, sanctions have trimmed about 1 percent from Russia’s $2 trillion gross domestic product this year, with the effects now being felt beyond the tight coterie of businessmen deemed close to President Putin who first felt the sting. Economic growth slowed to what Citigroup projects will be 0.5 percent this year. Since January, $110 billion has left Russia as capital flight.

Aleksei L. Kudrin, a former finance chief for Russia, said sanctions have trimmed about 1 percent from Russia’s $2 trillion gross domestic product this year. Credit Olga Maltseva/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Faint consumer demand caused car and other durable goods sales to contract. Rosneft, the state oil company has asked for a government bailout. Yevraziya, a chain of sushi restaurants, closed in Moscow after the price of salmon doubled.

Bob Foresman, the chief executive of Barclays bank in Russia, in a speech to the gathering cited a survey of businessmen’s views on the Russian economy, highlighting phrases like “fatigue,” “caution,” “false hope” and “false dawn.”

In Ukraine this week, Separatist gunmen and the Ukrainian army are exchanging artillery fire daily over military objectives like a regional airport and a strategic village, Debaltsevo, northeast of Donetsk, where Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observers came under fire Sunday.

If European leaders decide the cease-fire has failed, they have vowed to leave in place financial and oil industry sanctions imposed last week, rather than repeal them. That, Mr. Kudrin said, would stall the Russian economy with zero growth in 2015, or push it into a mild recession.

If the European Union and United States escalate sanctions on the banking sector by prohibiting Russian banks from accessing SWIFT, the international secure money transfer system, the Russian economy will go into deep recession with a contraction of at least 5 percent lasting one or two years, Mr. Kudrin said.

Turning inward and relying on a revival of domestic manufacturing and agriculture helped by the weakening ruble, the plan to fortify the Russian economy of so-called import substitution outlined by an acting deputy prime minister who also spoke at the gathering, is unrealistic, Mr. Kudrin suggested.

Soft-spoken and with a wry sense of humor, Mr. Kudrin seems at times to almost take pleasure in pointing out the dismal realities of the global economy, when nobody else here will.

Europe and the United States, the governments imposing sanctions on Russia, spend about $1.5 trillion on research and development annually, while Russia spends $20 billion, he noted. As such, Russia can never hope to replicate a wide range of these nations’ imported goods. The Russian government should designate only select niches of the economy for this policy, he said.

The Russian leadership, he said, understands the costs but may be willing to pay them. Earlier, he described the economic blow as the price for Russia having a foreign policy independent of the United States.

“At a minimum, two or three years are needed to resolve the questions,” of the Ukraine crisis, he said, even if no escalation takes place.

“Until then, we won’t know what investment climate we have and the final state of our relations with the West,” he added, and the Russian economy will be in a “period of instability.”

Mr. Kudrin, whose ties to Mr. Putin stretch back two decades to the city hall of St. Petersburg, where both worked, is retired from government. His is a rare public voice of a liberal wing of the Russian elite on the mounting economic costs of the war and sanctions. Kremlin watchers, though, are divided on whether such sentiments carry any weight now with Mr. Putin.

One attendee at the conference questioned whether the Kremlin, already hurt by sanctions, sees no point in changing its behavior in Ukraine, citing Winston Churchill saying “If you’re going through hell keep going.”

[davidbfpo]

For reasons I cannot now recall excatly, possibly his writing before the Cold War ended, I read what Timothy Garton-Ash says on Eastern Europe and Russia:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...-europe-russia

The sub-title is rather ambitiious I fear for Europe, at least it is a coherent package:

Europe can resolve this crisis and counter Russia’s aggression, but it needs a clear 10-year plan

A sample passage:

To have a plan, we Europeans must know what we are responding to. This is difficult, since Putin is in the erratic, hubristic mental state typical of your late-period autocrat. Nonetheless, my best guess is that what he currently aims to do is to keep southeastern Ukraine in such a state of turmoil, divided power and Russian influence that the country as a whole cannot consolidate its position as a sovereign, functioning state – let alone move closer to the EU and Nato. Crucial to this strategy is a porous Russian-Ukrainian frontier, through which Russian arms and agitators can move at will.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---here is the perfect reason why your "concept of negotiations" will never work with any event tied to Russia in the current 21st century.

During the Cold War days one could negotiate simply because there were a set of implicit rules that both sides fully understood and balanced against MAD in the background---that kept really any overt hostilities from breaking out with the exception of Korea and we could kick in say Viet Nam---although that did not stop the "wars of national liberation" as being the flash points between the Cold Warriors from occurring.

Even during say the Berlin Wall 61, Hungary 56 and then the Prague 68 invasion and then Poland in the 80s the West basically used rhetoric to score points-- but fully understood the spheres of influence draw up in Yalta.

That was implied as it was based on Yalta---but again Yalta was drawn up without asking say Poland, Czechoslovakia and or the Baltics what they wanted after being freed from Hitler. I did link to a comment indicating the Russians would actually prefer to have a new meeting in Yalta to reestablish the boundaries again.

Since the Wall 1990 Yalta no longer existed nor was ever referred to again by both sides of the former Cold War as it was "understood" things had changed and Yalta could no longer be applied.

One cannot negotiate with Putin as those "implied rules of Yalta" simply no longer exist so therefore the ability to conduct negotiations based on something implied is gone. Especially in the face of say Putin who really wants Yalta "re-recognized" and used as his base of a world order/security sphere.

The reason I bring this up is again the article that I have previously linked to was picked up by The Moscow Times and rewritten with new emphasis.

The question the West has to urgently answer is the Russian use of a UW strategy at the low levels--

Will NATO trigger the Article Five on say constant ethnic Russian demos in the Baltics or an occasional takeover of a Baltic administration building as was seen in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Will NATO trigger Article Five if say these demos get violent and suddenly "local nationals" are on the streets waving weapons and shooting at local law enforcement?

Will NATO in the face of this hybrid warfare actually pull the trigger and go to full warfare over localized demos for say more Russian language rights?

NATO has yesterday stated it will towards Russia--- but will it truly go to warfare over language rights and perceived discrimination? But NATO then must redefine Article Five as it was envisioned as a instrument for conventional warfare not hybrid warfare--and that has not happened regardless of NATO rhetoric yesterday and Putin knows it.

You will see that tested in the coming months---if NATO does respond then Putin "understands the new implied rules" if NATO does not fully trigger Article Five then Putin is home free and clear and NATO is totally diminished as a security organization plane and simple.

Remember AP I did list one of the three Putin goals--one was diminishing NATO power and or destroying NATO for good.

The Putin Doctrine has been tested in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine and Putin knows it works--but does the US/EU/NATO get it--still not apparent.

Watch Putin's coming moves in Moldavia and the Baltics in order to test NATO resolve.

Check this article out--as it heads in that direction.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...es/507188.html

[OUTLAW 09]

In all the Russian propaganda about the "poor discriminated ethnic Russians n the Donbas" we tend to forget the actual ethnic breakout of the region.

AND Russia has not once released actual examples of that "Russian discrimination in the Donbas region" other than just the standard Russian anti Ukrainian propaganda.

https://twitter.com/euromaidan/statu...812417/photo/1

56% of the region is actually Ukrainian and they will not be allowed to vote in the upcoming elections otherwise the region would go to the governing parties not the separatists unless the Crimea tactics are used --ballot stuffing and over counting of the same single ballot and or already X'ed ballots.

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--if you read a recent comment of mine---I do believe that since the south east Donbas is now fully annexed and that it will never go back to the Ukraine---it is time to cut it off from the main Ukraine.

NOTICE this from the net this morning--interesting comment.
#Breaking Ukr. border guards are building a "boundary line" between the occupied areas and the "peaceful" parts of Donbas.

But it takes the Ukraine to hold onto the ports of Mariupol and Odessa to remain an economic viable state--BUT even Russia sees that thus the drive to take Mariupol and Odessa to create a land bridge to the Crimea.

Without the two ports Ukraine will remain weak and thus dependent on Russia.

And it achieves again the Putin Doctrine.

BUT cutting the south eastern regions off brings a massive new chance for the Ukraine---

1. they do not have to rebuild what the Russians and separatists destroyed
2. gives them a chance to build an new 21st economy which they have a massively capable young generation ready for that
3. easier to integration in the EU and NATO
4. easier to rebuild their military on the NATO model
5. does away with the "frozen model" that Russia needs in order to control/influence the Ukraine
6. take in all Ukrainians who want to come over--remember the ethnic Russian population was only 39-40-% of the actual Donbas population
7. by cutting the region then Ukraine can sell them water, electricity, and stop any economic payments to those that wish to reside in the New Russia--tons in money savings for the Ukraine--just as they did in the Crimea
8. and here is the beauty--they can take Russia to the international courts and demands repayments for years to come on what Russia illegally annexed/sized/nationalized

Let Russia support another "failed state" which is really what the Crimea is now---economically they cannot even support the Crimea even with all their bluster during the annexation after Russia stated they were going to do for them as the "benefits" in joining the RF.

There was a small economic comment via the net the other day---no coal is being mined and delivered right now from the Donbas region--so the Ukraine went out and purchased South African coal at 85 USD per ton vs the 300 USD per ton they were paying for Donbas coal.

NOW that AP is a pure capitalist decision and an easy one to make if you ask me---

Lastly---if the south east annexation remains in place as does the Crimea then in fact the sanctions remain in place and the longer they go on the more damage to the Russian economy sitting it back 20-30 years---and that is power politics.

ON top of the sinking oil prices right now--signals massive economic challenges for the Russian economy which has been seen in the last two days of economic press releases coming out of Moscow.

Win win for the Ukraine if you ask me---their President just has to sell it that way.

See AP sometimes economic warfare can in fact take the place of actual boots on the ground warfare.

BUT here is the problem western leaders could not realize that fast enough and were played well by Putin--and wasted five months which is a lifetime in politics.

AP--notice the Ukrainian "strategy at Minsk" is slowly closing in on Putin--meaning the Ukrainians delivered on everything they have committed to at Minsk and the Donesk leadership is now formally blocking everything to include the agreed to elections.

1. no completed POW exchanges
2. resumption of countless shelling attacks and ground attacks
3. even today OSCE formally stated the attacks are coming from the mercenaries
4. even after the eastern laws passed--will do no elections
5.proclaimed a "New Russia" Army
6. proclaimed "New Russia" regions independent

If Putin does not get his "separatists' onto the same sheet of music the Ukraine can new declare the agreements null and void due to the failure of Russia to ensure compliance to which they placed their signatures next to those of the separatists.

That then in turn moves an even harder range of EU sanctions against Russia which the EU has signaled further decisions for next week if nothing happens on the Russian side to move the agreements forward.

With the Russian economy dangling literally over the cliff on the sanctions you claim will not work--Putin's choice is now reign in the separatists and admit he has control over them and or literally allow the Russian economy to tank as not seen in the last 20 years.

His choice---he is going to truly tank the Russian economy--who wins in this chess game the Ukrainian president---who has to rebuild the Donbas--Russia and who cannot rebuild it--Russia.

AP--again did you notice not a single word out of Putin --not since his school visit and interview---everything is coming via his FM.

That is unusual to say the least.

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that stated often here sanctions do not work.

And sanctions are not hurting the Russian oil/gas industry?---literally an flood of negative Interfax press releases today on the Russian oil industry.

Ouch...it seems the Russian oil industry is screaming for Russian CB support.. almost a panic tone in this stream of releases (actually an unusual event for Interfax)...from Interfax today

18:48
PRODUCING OWN OIL INDUSTRY EQUIPMENT WON'T RESOLVE BAN ON IMPORTS QUICKLY - MEDVEDEV

18:46
COLOSSAL MEANS NEEDED TO FULLY REVIVE PRODUCTION OF EQUIPMENT TO PRODUCE OIL IN RUSSIA - ALEKPEROV

18:46
TAX MANEUVER TO LEAD TO INCREASED TAX BURDEN ON OIL INDUSTRY - ALEKPEROV

18:45
LUKOIL NOT EXPECTING MONEY FROM ABROAD IN MEDIUM TERM, HAS TO DEPEND ENTIRELY ON ITSELF - ALEKPEROV

18:45
EFFORTS MUST BE MOBILIZED IMMEDIATELY TO PRODUCE HYDROFRACTURING EQUIPMENT IN RUSSIA - ALEKPEROV

18:43
LUKOIL'S ALEKPEROV SAYS 25% OF OIL PRODUCED BY FRACKING, BAN ON EQUIPMENT IMPORTS FOR THIS COULD HURT OIL INDUSTRY

[kaur]

That Borissov worked for Russian Central Elections Commission 2007.

The assessment is likely to widen the growing rift between Russia and the West across a host of issues. Officials in Russia condemned it as politically motivated.

"It is a political order," said Igor Borisov, a member of Russia's Central Election Commission, speaking to the news agency Interfax about the observers' statements. "A political expediency dictated from overseas prevailed over the principles of objective monitoring which must be carried out by international observers."

The election campaign, including a prominent speech by President Vladimir Putin, was marked by accusations that the West was plotting to undermine the legitimacy of the vote in a bid to destabilize Russia. The charges are unlikely to abate with Russia's presidential campaign about to begin.

http://www.sfgate.com/politics/artic...ns-3234884.php

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that Putin has achieved his fifth "frozen enclave" and fo all the claims that "negotiations" work--since Minsk yesterday the separatist occupied portions of the Donbas region are de facto "annexed" and nothing can change that outcome.

Now see fourth frozen conflict on border of Russia, and fifth such sustained by the armed forces of the Russian federation.

This outcome calls into full questioning of NATO's will to use the full scale Article 5 if "little green men" appear" in the Baltics. Yes SOCEUR talks a good line about doing it--but can be get 28 yes votes when it is fact staring them in the face?--doubt it.

Seriously doubt it--why because of they were afraid of a "war" in the Ukraine just why would they actually go to "war" in say Estonia and or Latvia which s far smaller and less populated than say the Ukraine.

This now achieves one of the main Putin goals---isolation and splitting of NATO and the US.

Notice virtually no responses out of the US after the Ukrainian President's visit and yet we are all over the map on how to "defeat" the IS which the last time I checked had no nuclear weapons and they did not issue nuclear strike threats as well.

In the end Putin has fully field tested his new Putin Doctrine, he has fully tested his new military strategy "New Generation Warfare" and he has even field tested a number of new weapons systems in actual combat--overall not bad.

And the West led by Germany and the US---not sure exactly what they achieved outside of talk and "negotiations".

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is truly in an "altered state of reality".

All this week they were selling the Scottish vote as a perfect example of what they did in the Crimea and the illegal voting done in eastern Ukraine.

Basically they wanted to prove to the world just how "legal" they had been.

But since the vote went against independence they have virtually "flipped out" in anger, that the vote was illegally done by the UK, that it was not transparent enough---and on and on then this today.

By the way the ballot stuffing video was actually taken in Russia in 2012---another great example of Russian information warfare.

This video doing the rounds of "Election Fraud in Scotland" does show ballot-stuffing, but it's from Russia in 2012:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9RCe55y0dw …

[mirhond]

http://www.fixygen.ua/news/20140917/goskompaniya.html

Ukrainian public energy supply company "Tzentrenergo" is going to buy coal in Ruissia.

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears that Putin has achieved his fifth "frozen enclave" and fo all the claims that "negotiations" work--since Minsk yesterday the separatist occupied portions of the Donbas region are de facto "annexed" and nothing can change that outcome.

Now see fourth frozen conflict on border of Russia, and fifth such sustained by the armed forces of the Russian federation.

This outcome calls into full questioning of NATO's will to use the full scale Article 5 if "little green men" appear" in the Baltics. Yes SOCEUR talks a good line about doing it--but can be get 28 yes votes when it is fact staring them in the face?--doubt it.

Seriously doubt it--why because of they were afraid of a "war" in the Ukraine just why would they actually go to "war" in say Estonia and or Latvia which s far smaller and less populated than say the Ukraine.

This now achieves one of the main Putin goals---isolation and splitting of NATO and the US.

Notice virtually no responses out of the US after the Ukrainian President's visit and yet we are all over the map on how to "defeat" the IS which the last time I checked had no nuclear weapons and they did not issue nuclear strike threats as well.

In the end Putin has fully field tested his new Putin Doctrine, he has fully tested his new military strategy "New Generation Warfare" and he has even field tested a number of new weapons systems in actual combat--overall not bad.

And the West led by Germany and the US---not sure exactly what they achieved outside of talk and "negotiations".

While this week and last week the Russian FM stated "Russia does not want to split the Ukraine" quote/unquote

THEN this Russian word usage come out today---and that is not splitting the Ukraine?

3d #aidconvoy has arrived in Donetsk, #Ukraine & delivered to "Donetsk Republic" not RedCross

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOhAN1pcLEA … pic.twitter.com/tP4oOn868L

[kaur]

Window on Eurasia: Putin Cleverly Exploits Three Weaknesses of the West

Staunton, September 21 – Vladimir Putin appears stronger than he is because he is exploiting three weaknesses of the West: confusion among journalists of balance and objectivity, a desire to get a ceasefire rather than to repulse aggression, and a lack of will to punish Moscow politically and not just economically.

First, as has been true since the start of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, Putin has exploited the increasing proclivity of Western journalists to equate balance with objectivity. He and his minions have flooded the media with statements that are simply not true, but many Western outlets report them as part of the story, without identifying them as false or even questioning their veracity.

Second, Western governments approach every conflict as an occasion to get a ceasefire rather than to defeat aggression out of a belief that diplomacy alone can solve the problem and reach a solution. But there are at least two obvious problems with that, as the current Minsk Accords show.

And third, the West is only prepared to go so far in using its leverage. Its sanctions on Russia have been good as far as they have gone: they are hurting Moscow economically and financially. But the West has not been prepared to impose the kind of political sanctions that would affect the Kremlin more directly, apparently fearful of creating a longer that would call Western profits into question.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...-cleverly.html

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---seems the Russian ban on US chicken is not working as is the salmon ban these days.

The failure of Russian sanctions to affect prices or hurt U.S. producers is actually typical of such measures, political scientists say. Sanctions have a tendency to fail to affect prices for producers in the long term because they adjust to them.

"The issue with sanctions is that once they're imposed, firms adjust," said Bryan Early, a professor of political science at the University of Albany. "Producers who weren't expecting the sanctions are going to have an over-supply. They're probably going to have to drop their prices in the short run, but in the longer run, they'll adjust" their output.

The Russian market is worth about $300 million for U.S. poultry producers, and chicken represents the largest share of U.S. agriculture exports to Russia. But it's not as important for U.S. poultry producers as it once was.

The United States exports only 20 percent of the poultry it produces. And while at one time Russia constituted as much as 40 percent of poultry exports, in 2013 the U.S. shipped only 7 percent of exports there, according to James Sumner, president of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council. Sumner added that most of the product intended for Russia was able to find another home in other international markets.

[OUTLAW 09]

I had written here several weeks ago that I felt that the Ukraine had in fact "suckered in Russia into the eastern Ukraine" and AP took offense at the comment.

(Moderator adds: The military aspects of this post are on the Ukraine military aspects thread (ends).

AND then now this article which came out this week fully indicating the rest of the Ukraine does not in fact need the Donbas region-something else I had argued and was rejected by AP--you will also notice the UA fought hard to keep key locations and that ties into this article as well.

In the article there is talk that the Ukraine needs the good coal quality of the Donbas region --BUT the Ukraine just concluded a delivery deal with South Africa for their coal at a price range of 85 USD per ton not the over prices 300 USD per ton from the Donbas.

So again was Russia "suckered in by the Ukraine"?

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...e-group-meets/

Analysts - Donbass Needs Ukraine For Economic Survival While Ukraine Can Survive Without The Occupied Territories.

16:20 (GMT)

Ukraine's Sirgis Inform argues in a lengthy article today that Ukraine would not suffer greatly, in economic terms at least, from the loss of the occupied areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

The article says that while the Russian backed separatists control the population centres of the regions, key economic hubs remain under government control.

For example, Mariupol accounts for 31-36% of the total industrial output of the Donetsk region. By comparison, the city of Donetsk produces half as much. Indeed Mariupol's two steelworks make up more than 70% of the region's steel production of which 62.6% was sold in exports in 2013.

Similarly, hydrocarbon resources are also distributed in the government's favour. The Yuzivska shale gas field (named after Donetsk founder John Hughes) lies, according to the article, in government-held territory. The article also states that more than 50% of the coal mined last year in the Donetsk region came from mines in government-controlled territory.

The situation in the Lugansk region is more complicated but still poor for the separatists with major chemical production areas and the largest power station in the region under government control in the north. That power station, the Luganskaya thermal power station, has, however, been shelled recently by Russian-backed forces, though it is reportedly still running.

German MP and member of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, Marieluise Beck, reported from Lugansk that Russian military engineers were laying power cables from the city to Russian territory, suggesting that Russia plans to provide the occupied city with independent power supplies.

According to the Sirgis Inform report, the region's sole iron and steel plant in separatist-held Alchevsk accounts for 46.5% of the Lugansk region's exports. However, according to the Lugansk Regional Administration, the plant was forced to cut production in the first half of July.

Destruction from the conflict has also forced the Stakhanov ferro-alloy plant and a number of other industrial plants in separatist-held areas to shut off production. According to the Regional Administration, the region's industrial production for 2014 will be only half of last year's, and, the report notes, this figure is largely due to the less affected output from the first half of this year.

Meanwhile, Sergei Kuznetsov writes in The Financial Times that the Donbass region cannot survive economically without staying in Ukraine.

He speaks to Aleksei Ryabchyn of the Ukraine Reforms Communications Taskforce, who says that the steel industry in the Donbass is largely dependent on the import of raw materials from other regions of Ukraine.

Kuznetsov writes:


The steel industry, for example, relies on raw materials from neighbouring regions in Ukraine. "In addition, it needs to import 10 to 15 per cent of its high-quality coal from the Rostov region [in Russia] to increase the quality of the metal," Ryabchyn says.

Most of the iron ore processed by plants in Donbas is supplied from the Kryviy Rih basin in the nearby Dnipropetrovsk region. According to a strategy note from Kiev-based Concorde Capital:

"the Donbas is self-sufficient in coking coal and coke, but has no in-house sources of iron ore. The integration of the Donbas region into Ukraine's iron ore-coke-steel chain is very deep."

The Donbas is also heavily dependent on exports - it sells about 70 per cent of its products abroad. Ryabchyn says it is losing its traditional export markets because clients don't want to deal with an unstable and unpredictable grey zone. He says most industrial enterprises in the Donbas have loans from western banks, while their competitiveness depends on western energy-saving technologies.

"I do not see any other reasonable way for the Donbas to exist, other than for it to remain under Ukrainian jurisdiction. Otherwise, this industrial region will die," Ryabchyn says.

Alexander Paraschiy, the head of research at Concorde Capital, does however note that separatist controlled areas produce more than 90% of Ukraine's anthracite, needed for power stations in other regions of Ukraine.

NOTE: Donbas coal costs 300USD per ton vs South African at 85 USD per ton---that is a non brainer and Sa will deliever long term any amount needed by the Ukraine.

But according to Paraschiy, the separatist controlled territories are not self-sufficient "either in terms of the production cycle, or from the standpoint of budget revenues and expenses."

He argues that the Ukrainian government will not provide budgetary support to regions that remain under DNR and LNR control, citing a statement by President Poroshenko on Sunday, in which he said that financial assistance would only be provided to territories that raise the Ukrainian flag.

Those areas would, he says, likely receive economic assistance from Western aid, creating a wider gulf between the separatist-held territories, cut off from their body economy, and the functional areas under Ukrainian control.

[davidbfpo]

THis week a "lurker" who knows the Ukraine and Crimea added to my knowledge:

1. Tourists from the Ukraine are still visiting the Crimea
2. Even non-Russians in the Crimea voted for unification with Russia, simply as the Ukraine was unstable
3. Russia has provided a new phone network, which is far cheaper than the still operating Ukrainian one
4. Yes there are bureaucratic difficulties, such as the issue of permits, but so far stability has enabled business and normal life to go on
5. Foreign investment has ceased in Eastern Ukraine generally, as many investors have concluded the Ukraine is finished
6. Swiss investors have gone, the Germans are leaving and the Austrians are pondering their options
7. The "big bosses" to date have opted for the Ukraine and in places have supported Ukrainian rule
8. In several places in eastern Ukraine the electricity supply has been disrupted, so reducing industrial output and public utilities functioning. Just what happens in the winter is very unclear.

Then today the LAT has a report from the Crimea:http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/...ry.html#page=1

[OUTLAW 09]

Notice---just how Russian "spins" the truth---if one reads it for face value then it seem to argue "see you have got now what you wanted and it was under the other "criminal" pro Russian President that ripped off your ountry to the tune of billions of USDs.

So after all the fighting and destruction---see we the Great Russian Empire was right all along.

WHAT the Russian press release does not spin is in fact the EU agreements were signed, the EU is granting until the end of 2015 Ukrainian free trade with no customs worth billions to their economy AND WHAT Russia does not state in the release is that the delay was offered first by the EU IN order for Russia to adjust it's market products to being sold inside the EU.

NONE of that would have occurred under the old criminal and corrupted former pro Russian President.

Russian products cannot pass any simple EU safety standards ---even Slovenian products meet CE electrical standards, and Russian food products come no where close to meeting EU health standards---and Russia was "afraid" of losing a 2B USD a year market for their goods.

Russian spin these days is a work of art to watch and track--they are really good at it or as the SOCEUR stated ---"it is a blitz kreig".

And we are worried about IS social media usage?

MOSCOW, September 28 (RIA Novosti) – The decision of the Kiev authorities not to enact the Association Agreement with the EU immediately is similar to the proposal made by Ukraine's former President Viktor Yanukovych 10 months ago, at the time when it was possible to avoid the bloodshed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Sunday.

"The decision of the European Union and Ukraine postpone the enactment of the Association Agreement till the end of 2015 … is by and large the same thing that Viktor Yanukovych was asking for," Lavrov said in an interview to Russia’s Channel 5.