The Russian FM seems to be on a roll---now he is complaining about the Feb 21 agreement worked out by the Germans, French and Poles BUT not signed by the Russians who sent no one to the meetings except a Russian Human Rights individual who refused to sign as he did not have authority to.
BUT now they claim the West violated the agreement as if they the Russians were part and parcel of the meetings and agreements--but then there is no Russian signature as they refused to participate with the "junta".
AT the same time they fully ignore the Budapest Memorandum they themselves signed.
MOSCOW, September 28 (RIA Novosti) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has blamed Western partners for violating their own arrangements concerning the regulation of the crisis in Ukraine.
"When we (Russia) called for reverting to the fulfillment of the obligation assumed on February 21 and tried to appeal to our western partners, especially those who were directly involved in preparing this document, they told us that the train was gone and that the situation had changed. How could the situation take such a turn that the task of the country's national unity has become irrelevant?" said Lavrov in an interview with Rossiya-1 broadcaster and Russia Today TV channel.
The agreement between the opposition and the president of Ukraine (the then Viktor Yanukovych) was signed on February 21 in the presence of the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland. The first provision of the agreement was to set up a government of national unity .
“As you can see, because of such absurd elaborations that they provided us with as well as a number of other reasons, we insisted on the fulfillment of the Geneva convention with a call for constitutional reform. In return, they told us that ‘you know the statement is very good; the US, the EU and Ukraine have signed it, but there is already a peace plan proposed by Poroshenko [Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko]'. That is to say, the goalposts are being moved all the time, as the English say, and a new game as if starts again. This is unfair, first of all, and absolutely ineffective,” Lavrov stressed.
This was the Russia response to the accusation of violating the Budapest Memo---which mentions items that were never passed by the Ukrainian Parliament.
Moscow said in an April 1 statement that it could not accept any accusations of violating the December 5, 1994 Budapest Memorandum. "The current Kiev 'government', which came to power in the wake of an unconstitutional coup, carried out policies, especially in relation to ethnic minorities, that in essence undermined Ukraine's unity and pushed a whole region out of the country", the ministry's statement reads.
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_0...iolation-1139/
Notice the "it ain't us" started already in April.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-28-2014 at 03:24 PM.
If I was living currently in Alaska--might think about moving down south for awhile. But we know one can see Russia from Alaska.
This shows just where the Russian mindset is wandering off too these days.
Duma MP Mikhail Degtyarov made an official inquiry to #MID regarding legality of sales Fort Ross to #USA.
Now they are coming for California--there are a large number of rich Russians there---hope California is watching the Ukrainian developments.
Outlaw,
Notwithstanding what low level politicians say in public, Russia is not going to invade Alaska.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
AP--but it does give one a deeper understanding into the Russian ultra nationalist ie "fascist" mindset does it not.Originally Posted by AmericanPride
Once you understand it then it is easy to see where Putin is headed before he says a single word.
He is within that circle now and has coupled his train to them and now cannot shift gears---actually he is trapped--you did see the recent photos of members of the Russian Orthodox Church at various military firing ranges shooting pistols and AKs---one would not see that say from the RC or Protestant Churches.
Not particularly. The 'ultra-nationalists' are still marginal players in the Russian government. To be sure, the last year or so has given them more leverage and opportunity for influence, but the Putin government still retains a measure of realists and liberals who have variable impacts on decision-making. A lowly Duma politician does not speak for the Putin government.
Putin is a committed realist, for the most part. That he uses the language of nationalism is an indicator of opportunism, not his ideological preferences. The conflict in Ukraine and its escalation has elevated this rhetoric out of political necessity (Putin's approval rating remains incredibly high) but his government has been very conservative in regards to its commitment to the Donbas. The official position of Moscow still remains federalism for Donetsk and Luhansk - not annexation or independence. And when the militias in the east pushed for that, Moscow rebuffed them. As long as the conflict continues and there's a perception in Russia that it is being marginalized by the West, the nationalists will continue to draw strength and influence.Once you understand it then it is easy to see where Putin is headed before he says a single word.
National security is the default principal interest of the Russian state - when that interest contradicts regional integration, economic development, or international cooperation, it always prevails. Ukraine's effective neutrality has been a central national security interest of Russia since 1991. And before then, as far back as the early 1950s when the USSR petitioned to join NATO, the Russians were dedicated to building a buffer between Moscow and the West (remember, the formation of the Warsaw Pact came after West Germany's rearmanent and ascension into NATO). That the Russians are committed to defending what they claim to be a vital interest should not at all be surprising and it is not indicative of your claim.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
That's not true either. The Christian Right in the U.S. is probably one of the most militant religious segments in any society. Gary Cass recently published in one of the leading Evangelical magazines a call to genocide against Muslims. After public backlash, the magazine yanked the article but without any explanation or even apology. This is actually a fairly common sentiment in the U.S. religious right - and it really puts the 'ultra-nationalists' in Russia to shame. The other favorite target of these extremists are homosexuals. The largest domestic attack in U.S. history (the Oklahoma City Bombing) was committed by a Christian right terrorist.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
AP---then you truly as do many others not fully understand "fascism" do you?
I tried to get you to fully understand the four legs of Russian decision making;
1. the military
2. the security services
3. the oligarch's
and
4. the Russian mob
As a layer covering over the four is the Russian Orthodox Church and as moderator Putin in the middle.
Let's check the status of a majority of the Russian fighters/mercenaries--the last check I made two weeks ago indicated now well over nine different ultra nationalist ie "fascist" groups fighting for Russia in the Donbas region.
Estimated strength well over 10K out of the roughly 15-17K at the height of the fighting.
So if we take your statement at say face value---how far would the fighting have gone with 10K less fighters?
The last time I checked the ROC had a distinctly ultra nationalist tinge to their statements concerning the Ukraine.
The last time I checked a super large number of the idiotic fascist statements made by the supposedly non influencing fascist groups SOMEHOW made it into Russian TV and radio as part and parcel of the info war Russia is carrying out against the Ukraine and the West.
The last time I checked the number of comments made about the use of nuclear weapons against the US and the West came out of these groupings and do not forget those crazies wanting back Ft. Ross and Alaska and they all sit legally as legal Russian political parties in the Duma.
So please understand the intertwine of "fascism", and how it is used in the Russian decision making process.
Again go back and read any number of the articles out there on Russian "fascism"--simply Google it---it is all there as they do not attempt to hide it.
Russian nationalism and fascism is so intertwined it is impossible to tell the difference these days AND then throw in Russian imperialism and you have one heck of a mixture---and one wonders why the US has simply no strategy how many months into this? But on the other hand doing minimum efforts on the Ukraine could be in fact a "strategy".
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-08-2014 at 03:56 PM.
We've been through this before. You play fast and loose with definitions, take people's comments out of context, and sometimes invent or omit historical facts (like claiming that the Ukraine conflict is the first in Europe since WW2 to change state borders, while entirely missing the implosion of Yugoslavia).
Good for them. The groups doing the actual fighting are usually the furthest from any kind of decision-making power. That the Russian elite are happy to use 'fascist' 'volunteers' does not mean the Russian elite are 'fascist' themselves. What's missing from the mainstream Russian political discourse as well as (and most importantly) in Russian state policy is the fascist obsession with purifying the 'race' and 'nation', and renewing the nation through aggressive armed conflict. So - it's easy to see why actual fascists clamor for conflict in Ukraine while the real decision-makers (Putin, et. al) are much more cautious in committing Russia to perpetual warfare abroad.
And that's the key point you are missing. The central element of fascism is not nationalism. The central component of fascism is that the nation - the people - are reborn through the trials and hardships of war.
Right. Refer to previous post about opportunism. Appeal to nationalism and ostracizing the 'Other' is common in all countries during war. Turn on Fox News at any time of day.The last time I checked a super large number of the idiotic fascist statements made by the supposedly non influencing fascist groups SOMEHOW made it into Russian TV and radio as part and parcel of the info war Russia is carrying out against the Ukraine and the West.
The Russian elite are not fascists. That they have nationalist tendencies is something else entirely.So please understand the intertwine of "fascism", and how it is in Russian decision making process.
It is interwined but only superficially and if one is careless in actually understanding fascism as well as the processes of state decision-making. You aren't careless, are you?Russian nationalism and fascism is so intertwined it is impossible to tell the difference these days
Last edited by AmericanPride; 10-08-2014 at 04:06 PM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
AP---and sanctions, falling oil price --which by the way I mentioned would happen oh about six months ago in this thread and the forever declining Ruble will what cause Russia to continue in the Ukraine?---come on AP think for a change. Putin is in his final leg of a "death race"--remember I used that term often here as well.
You still by the way have not fully understood Russian "fascism" have you if one reads your comments--you did not even take the time to Google did you?
In spite of the RU Central bank's intervention Tuesday (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...le/508582.html …), the ruble fell today, to 40.0284/$
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR …
And outlaw, since you're so interested in throwing the term 'fascism' around carelessly, I'll give you some recommended readings to help you understand the idea.
Start with The Anatomy of Fascism by Robert Paxton. He argues there are five stages of fascism. One of the key components he identifies is an obsession with 'redemptive violence' and 'internal cleansing'. Then start reading the primary sources of (mostly Italian) fascist theorists. Facism is firmly rooted in Western European experiences; namely violent imperialism, and the challenges of both capitalism and Marxism.
Nationalism is not the central component of fascism, otherwise everyone on Fox News would be a 'fascist'. And statism is also not a central component of facism, otherwise any good communist would also be a 'fascist' (which, of course, is absurd). But take those two features together and combine it with the ideological predisposition towards war as redemption for the nation, as a purifying process for the nation, and then you have fascism. That part of is absent in both Russian political discourse and policy.
So for you to 'fully understand' fascism, I suggest you expand your reading list beyond Google.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
How would you know? You've claimed repeatedly that Russia is a 'rogue state' run by 'irrational' decision-makers living in an 'altered stated of reality'. So if that is the case, how can anyone predict what they will do next?
Fascism does exist in Russia - in parties like the LDPR. But fascism is not a mainstream ideology in Russia and it certainly does not have any significant influence on the state's policies.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
The Ukrainian Limited war: you can't get satisfaction
Moderator's Note
This post and fourteen replies were in a separate thread till 16th October 2014. Now merged into this primarily political thread (ends).
Professor Lawrence Freedman, a noted writer on strategy, has a WoTR article (HT to them), the last two sentences inspired my title:The article's title is 'Ukraine and the Art of Limited War' and her refers to a 1969 Rolling Stones song:http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/ukr...f-limited-war/In limited war you don’t always get what you want. Nor do you get much satisfaction.
He describes his article thus:On the two Ukrainian SWC threads Outlaw09 and others have posted on the 'Little green men', so this passage and link is useful:In this essay I take up the story from early May to the start of October and consider what, if any, strategic lessons might be drawn from this most recent stage in the conflict. ...The next stage in the conflict over the political future of Ukraine will depend on how the issue of the governance of territory currently occupied by separatists is handled. If the conflict bursts out of its current limits then the next essay in this series will have an even more alarming topic.A report on the Gerasimov speech:http://www.interpretermag.com/putins...ff-a-year-ago/Some observers have drawn attention to a speech from early 2013 by Valery Gerasimov, newly appointed as chief of Russia’s general staff. Reflecting some of the Western debate, he described how in conflict in the Middle East there had been a progressive erosion of the distinctions between war and peace and between uniformed personnel and covert operatives.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-16-2014 at 12:06 PM. Reason: Add note after merging
davidbfpo
https://www.worldsteel.org/dms/inter...res%202013.pdf
steel production and consumption in Ukraine, by World Steel
Prod: 33 mln.t. in 2012 (10 in the world rank, between Brazil and Italy)
Cons: mln.t. of finished steel products by y. 2006-20012 (somewhere in between Argentina and Sweden)
6.6
8.1
6.9
3.8
5.4
6.3
5.7
intermediate deduction: Ukraine is either so highly industrialized and developed that she needn't so much steel, (like Sweden) or Ukraine is deindustrializing. Lets look at consumption of finished steel products,
kg. per capita, 2006-20012
Sweden
491.6
530.0
469.8
275.9
388.1
409.6
367.7
Ukraine
142.6
174.0
149.5
83.9
119.6
139.1
126.1
Conclusion: Ukraine is going to scrap industrial complex and turn into ethographic resort with blackjack and hookers.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
Outlaw,
Here are some more choice quotes highlighting your misuse (and misunderstanding) of fascism.
The economic basis of fascism is the simultaneous rejection of capitalism (the so-called 'economic man') and Marxism. Instead of exasperating class conflict or ending it through proletarian revolution, fascist ideology advocates a 'class compromise' through corporatism in which the state manages the relations between capital and labor through the compulsory institutional arrangement of associationally organized interests. Commercial interests, like labor, are subordinated to the well-being of the 'nation'. This is neither the policy or platform of the Putin administration. The dominant role of the Russian state in the productive processes of the country are not a reflection of a fascist desire to compel commercial activity, but derives from the historical continuity of Russian centralism. The Putin administration's interest in compelling commercial activities starts and stops with preserving the wealth and power of its closed circle of oligarchs.
And here is the other, perhaps most important, component of fascism: the renewing qualities of violence. In fact, war and violence are perhaps the key defining feature of fascism that distinguishes it from other 20th century ideologies. Even communism, with its call for global revolution, advocated violence only to the extent it was necessary to overthrow capitalism and replace it with a stateless society. No serious or significant official in the Putin administration has adopted this line of thinking, that the Russian people's spiritual and personal redemption requires perpetual warfare. All of Russia's wars since 1991 have involved problems in demarcating the boundaries in the numerous states created from the ruins of the Soviet political system. The differences between national boundaries and state boundaries has served as the underlying cause, while events like the Maiden revolution have been triggers. If Putin were a fascist, as described by actual fascists, the rhetoric from Moscow would call for the expansion of Russia and the domination of its neighbors through perpetual armed conflict.
And what's interesting is that your favorite fiction author you have quoted here, George Orwell, warned against the loose and inaccurate uses of terms, specifically fascism; when people use their 'private definitions' it allows them to push intellectually dishonest arguments, which is what you have done here repeatedly.
Is the Russian state authoritarian? Yes. Is nationalism an active sentiment in Russia? Yes. Is Russia a fascist state as described by actual fascists? No.
Last edited by AmericanPride; 10-09-2014 at 05:19 AM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Some interesting points from the author:
I find this comment humorous insofar that the loudest voices condemning Russian aggression also served as an echo chamber for Russian information operations by amplifying and hyping the Russian threat... which produced the contradictory statements that Russia was/is simultaneously the greatest threat to world peace and a second or third rate country ready to capitulate to a muscular U.S. response.
And this is the other ironic piece, because there are commentators who adamantly insist that Russia has masterminded this conflict from day one and has total control of the separatists... only to mire themselves in a difficult political position like the one described in the quote (or were manipulated from day one to be 'suckered in'... to be honest, the consistency is not clear). To be sure, Putin and his cabal are opportunists with a flair for power politics, but they are neither master strategists or pre-cogs capable of predicting the future.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Domestic Sources of the Donbas Insurgency by Serhiy Kudelia
http://www.ponarseurasia.org/memo/do...bas-insurgency
In Defense of Conspirology: A Rejoinder to Serhiy Kudelia’s Anti-Political Analysis of the Hybrid War in Eastern Ukraine by Andreas Umland
http://www.ponarseurasia.org/node/7274
Reply to Andreas Umland: The Donbas Insurgency Began At Home by Serhiy Kudelia
http://www.ponarseurasia.org/article...ncy-began-home
So AP again another rant leading nowhere.
To get back to your initial comment that triggered this comment evidently.
So AP---you seem to assume that one's own "ideology" and "personal biases" play WHAT no role in critical thinking and or the decision making process of a leader.
In some aspects Obama was recently actually correct when he stated Russia is a regional power and it is if you look seriously at it--and remember I stated many many comments ago---a superpower must be as well an economic power and right now I would not rate Russia as a economic powerhouse ---remember the term "death race".
Come on AP--think--and yet you quote Hitler as a "fascist leader"--would have thought Mussolini would have been better as they were true "fascists" long before Hitler---would have liked you quoting some of the current Russian "fascist" statements of the last six months, but again you missed the point.
OR are you stating in your initial comment on the topic Putin is being driven by a "rational logical" western or for that matter eastern emotional tinged decision making processes and his own personal biases and ideology play no role in those decsions?
Come on not even you can think that?
Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-09-2014 at 11:50 AM. Reason: fix quote
Some interesting points from the author:
I find this comment humorous insofar that the loudest voices condemning Russian aggression also served as an echo chamber for Russian information operations by amplifying and hyping the Russian threat... which produced the contradictory statements that Russia was/is simultaneously the greatest threat to world peace and a second or third rate country ready to capitulate to a muscular U.S. response.
And this is the other ironic piece, because there are commentators who adamantly insist that Russia has masterminded this conflict from day one and has total control of the separatists... only to mire themselves in a difficult political position like the one described in the quote (or were manipulated from day one to be 'suckered in'... to be honest, the consistency is not clear
And again AP you still do not get it for someone constantly commenting.
Really read the article many of the points the author makes you in fact "missed"---and again does it mean for example I buy in 100% to what he is writing---no he has some holes even in his article that he did not explore but due probably to length restrictions he did not.
AND again AP exactly what phase of this Russian UW are we in?--I asked you that a number of times and yet you seem to always sidestep.
One of the main points that I differ with the author on is his not fully understanding the Russian military planning cycles especially at the senior staff levels--ie COLs and higher. Remember this Russian Army as well as the former Soviet Army simply does not do "quickly" well--it is not in their military DNA. Planning, planning and more planning---you have never experienced them first hand so you would not know--many of their staff decisions have to even be signed by higher officers after being briefed on them ---thus planning is slow at best.
The Crimea events were planned long ago and pulled off the shelve much as Putin did in implementing his UW strategy against eastern Ukraine which the author mentioned but at a higher level not the tactical level.
SEE AP--this is again where we differ---Ukrainian senior officers and Russian senior offers go back a long way and know to a degree each other well.
Concerning "suckered in"--stop for moment and ask yourself---even though Russia was in say a phase three/four of their UW strategy the decision to deploy actual troops had not yet been taken when it appeared that the mercenaries were holding their own. Moving one's own troops into the theater is at phase six SO WHAT motivated Putin to jump straight into phase six of his own military strategy?
As the mercenaries lost more ground and fighters and were on the verge of actually losing--ask yourself another question. WHY did the Ukrainians keep on pushing the fight all the while knowing what Russia would in the end respond with and how Putin would respond.
IF you really did take time to read --go back and check what Putin was doing and or saying during the initial Russian troop deployments---NOTHING can be found---he went extremely silent--it was almost like a poker player who had been bluffing and went all in and WAS called by his opponent only in the end the opponent knew he was bluffing---TAKE a good look at photos/videos/interviews of/with Putin during the Crimea and then compare them to his appearance during the initial troop deployments and the sheer numbers of killed Russian troops coming back out--he did not look good--he looked tired. AND still he said nothing--all statements at that time came from his FM.
Ukrainians might be militarily weaker than Russia but they are not dumb.
Think slowly and ask the simple question --WHY did the Ukrainians keep pushing?
THEN go back and reread actually where the EU was on sectorial sanctions--remember the internal fighting that the EU was in with five members who did not want to level them---AND what then "pushed" them over the cliff and support sectorial sanctions which are now really hurting Russia and are not coming off anytime soon as it takes a full 28 member decision and you saw where Germany currently stands--leave them in place.
WHAT pushed the EU was the reporting by UK journalists who physically spotted Russian airborne troops and tanks crossing into eastern Ukraine--NOW read the next day what the Ukrainians were saying---we destroyed X number of Russian vehicle and troops--AND the Western response---stunned silence and all the time the Ukrainians never released evidence--just words and then later photos and TV appearances of the 10 Russian airborne prisoners.
AND immediately the EU sectorial sanctions went into play.
AND Russia was not "suckered in"---come on AP expand your thinking.
ALSO AP--recently via open source the pocket litter of a dead Russian soldier was translated and behold--"his contract expired 14 November"--and the Russian social media comments by those Russian troops who have returned and or still in the Ukraine also indicate November as being a drop dead date for some reason.
So if the author is correct that Putin entered eastern Ukraine in a hasty fashion then why were "contract Russian troops" carrying "contract orders" dated to end in mid November--AGAIN AP the Russian Army does not do "quickly". From say July until November is not a short period in the life cycle of combat--some of the Russian GRU/SF units had been inside since June---that is not "hasty".
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-09-2014 at 11:14 AM.
AP--here is the critical take away from the entire article and you failed to even quote it.
Putin’s power play in Ukraine has been impulsive and improvised, without any clear sense of the desired end state. It will serve neither Ukraine nor Moscow if Donetsk and Luhansk fall into disrepair and disarray, left in some separatist limbo, but it is not clear that either have the capacity to provide a viable future. The separatists will not allow its re-integration into Ukraine while Russia cannot afford to annex. The first stage of this crisis demonstrated poor crisis management. The second stage proved that in a struggle over territory, superior force makes a difference. However, without popular support, along with economic and administrative capacity, Russia will struggle to transform seized territory into a viable political entity. After many months of effort Russia has achieved limited gains but at high cost.
This AP is a critical statement which is why IMO Putin is trying for a way out and still cannot find the off ramp as his economy is diving faster into the ditch than he can get the West's attention.
In limited war you don’t always get what you want. Nor do you get much satisfaction.
Using Putin's own new military UW strategy and looking at what is happening on the ground---his new strategy has been a dismal failure because the end state of the strategy is a "victory" and currently what he has is a pure mess on the ground and even his own troops are having problems with his "fascist" friends he motivated to go to the Donbas.
See AP---actually being "suckered in" was fine for Putin as it fit his own UW strategy for the eastern Ukraine BUT now if you read this RIA press release very slowly---it seems to be saying "we are praying and hoping the ceasefire will take hold---and even though it is being broken it is still better than outright fighting."
AP--since when have you seen Russian end state strategy being defined as "praying and hoping"?
BY the way AP--this is virtually the first press release where I have not seen the Russian official government accuse the Ukrainians of "violating" the "ceasefire"---interesting twist of things if you ask me--Russia is finally awakening to reality on the ground and they are in fact now "trapped" by the Ukrainians and there is no way out without Ukrainian help--and that is a twist in this event.
Updated 12:40 p.m. Moscow Time
MOSCOW, October 9 (RIA Novosti) – The Kremlin hopes that the situation in Ukraine will stabilize, despite the fact that the ceasefire is not being observed in full, Russian President’s aide Yuri Ushakov said Thursday.The Kremlin official said that the current events in Ukraine “can be described as ceasefire.”
“They cannot be compared to the period of active military action. Maybe the ceasefire is not being observed in full, but still more constructive, more positive processes are under way. We hope that the situation will stabilize in the future,” Ushakov told reporters.
On Tuesday, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council announced that the conflicting sides in crisis-hit eastern Ukraine were introducing a so-called “regime of silence”, terminating all military action and artillery shelling in the region.
According to the Council, previous such attempts to bring a halt to continuing combat actions in eastern Ukraine have failed to hold.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-09-2014 at 11:35 AM.
By the way AP this conflict is far far different than Georgia and or Moldavia--it is not frozen but rather dynamic in nature and for the first time the Ukrainians on the ground are slowly regaining the combat initiative.
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