David,

It's worked out well in the short to medium run. The long run still hasn't come around.

It's important to recognize that the net capital flow between China and Africa is still inbound: the Chinese are putting more in as investment than they are taking out as ROI. That won't last forever: the Chinese are there for business and they intend to make a profit. As those investments mature the net capital flow will reverse, which is when we'll see how sustainable the relationship really is.

That's particularly true of the deals exchanging today's infrastructure for tomorrow's production. Getting a road in exchange for 20 years of cocoa production seems like a great deal at first: the road gets built and no money goes out. Down the line the cocoa will be going out and no money will be coming in... so who pays the farmers?

It will be very interesting to see how the Chinese respond when an African government unilaterally abrogates a contract with a public or private Chinese entity, or when an African government fails to pay the piper.

It is of course possible that all these things can be worked out and everything will be cozy... or not. Most likely it will work out different ways in different places. It's still way too early to reach conclusions.
How did the US, UK and other European nations get African nations to pay up their debts?

I lived through it, it was the formative experience of my youth - 1980s/90s. It was tough, but we paid - and we just finished paying last decade. Real household incomes dropped 80% in Nigeria during the 80s. I lived through it.

The Chinese aren't stupid - African govts will pay; the beauty of this approach is that it is left for African govts to manage their finances - some will, some won't, but the smarter ones won't make the mistake of repeating the mistakes we made with the West in 1980s/90s. Chinese financing is a lot cheaper - and they ensure the roads are built - not like the West that simply hands in the money to the Dictator who swiftly moves it to Switzerland - and the entire nation has to pay at 20 - 30% interest rate (compounded).

Nobody is doing this kind of barter trade - exchanging a road for entire 20 years worth of cocoa production. That would bankrupt the nation and yield no benefits to the Chinese.

In addition, you haven't figured out this - the Chinese are also looking out for consumers in Africa. There are a billion people in Africa & the Chinese are dealing with a demographic crisis at home - they need more consumers and where to site new factories, 10/20/30 years down the line - Africa suits them quite fine - especially in coastal regions where literacy is quite high.

You heard Chinese already have factories in Ethiopia? Productivity isn't as high as at home - but in a few years they'll figure out how to make this thing work in Africa (logistics, supplies, partners & stuff) - & they take it up in a very big way. (Chinese are building a free trade/industrial zone in Lagos Nigeria).

As an African, I see the West stubbornly stuck in the past, while the Chinese are constantly redefining and adapting to new realities (consider how they adapted to South Sudan).

For instance, you see Africa as primarily a natural resource driven economy far into the future - Chinese are betting that consumption will be huge & light industry will pick up (hence the massive investment in electricity projects).

Chinese also know (by actually being on the ground, interacting & doing business - not "writing news stories") that Africa is not monolithic!

The Chinese KNOW that labor issues & support for dictators is a challenge, but from what I've learned from them in Africa, they're not going to simply sit down twiddling their thumbs - they are going to do something about it.

Meanwhile, the West isn't bring anything new to what has been a 400 year old dysfunctional relationship with Africa, no new thinking, no nothing - just blame the Chinese.

But it won't work.