What should Washington's relationship with the developing World be?

[Dayuhan]

I think people who are paying attention (limited number, but that's always the case) see and understand what's going on, but really, what of it? It's not a threat or a challenge or a problem for the US, so there's no need for a response; it's not a model the US can reasonably expect to emulate, so there's no need to try to compete. Better just to sit back and watch how it plays out.

The pattern of US "aid" to Africa, and to most places, is easier to understand when you realize that it's not designed to help the recipient, it's designed to make Americans feel good about themselves.

[KingJaja]

I think people who are paying attention (limited number, but that's always the case) see and understand what's going on, but really, what of it? It's not a threat or a challenge or a problem for the US, so there's no need for a response; it's not a model the US can reasonably expect to emulate, so there's no need to try to compete. Better just to sit back and watch how it plays out.

The pattern of US "aid" to Africa, and to most places, is easier to understand when you realize that it's not designed to help the recipient, it's designed to make Americans feel good about themselves.

Africa/China trade was $10.6 billion in 2000. It is now $210 billion. If the US doesn't have a response to that, then it should consign itself to future irrelevance in Africa. It is that simple.

And I don't have a problem with that, but the US still wants to feel important in Africa - without having a clear 10, 20, 30 year vision of what they want to accomplish here - but the Chinese do.

[Dayuhan]

Africa/China trade was $10.6 billion in 2000. It is now $210 billion. If the US doesn't have a response to that, then it should consign itself to future irrelevance in Africa. It is that simple.

$210 billion sounds like a lot until you realize that total US foreign trade in 2013 was over $5 trillion; China was over $4 trillion. African trade is a drop in the bucket.

Look at the actual composition of African trade with China, and you see that it's already largely irrelevant to the US. US imports of African oil are down 90% since 2010, and now run under 200,000bpd, a pittance. The Chinese economy relies heavily on primary industry and imports large quantities of base metals and other primary materials. The US uses much less and most of what it needs is available in the Western Hemisphere. Why would you ship bulk materials like iron, copper, manganese, chromite etc from Africa when they are available much closer to home?

Look at what China exports to Africa... is it really realistic for the US to even try to compete? Textiles? The US hasn't manufactured them for generations, we get them from China. The African market consumes a lot of machinery, equipment, and manufactured goods, but the market is cost sensitive and on a pure cost basis there's very limited space for US competition. As economies develop and buyers become more sophisticated it's likely that US and European brands will become more popular, but that's a fair ways off.

How much Chinese industrial development in China is funded by government loans? US companies can't compete on those grounds; the government financing just isn't there.

Add in impediments like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which is a serious issue for US companies considering entry in the African market, and you pretty quickly reach the conclusion that the best move the US can make is to sit back and let the Chinese do as they will. If individual companies want to go in, fine, but on a policy basis I see no point at all in the US trying to compete with China in the African market.

And I don't have a problem with that, but the US still wants to feel important in Africa - without having a clear 10, 20, 30 year vision of what they want to accomplish here - but the Chinese do.

I actually think the US, for the most part, doesn't give a damn. There are sporadic efforts to put on a show of concern, but as an overall policy priority it's very low on the list.

[KingJaja]

$210 billion sounds like a lot until you realize that total US foreign trade in 2013 was over $5 trillion; China was over $4 trillion. African trade is a drop in the bucket.

That isn't how business men think

$210 billion could grow to $1 trillion in ten years if trade is aggressively pursued.

[Dayuhan]

$210 billion could grow to $1 trillion in ten years if trade is aggressively pursued.

It might, and it might not. Africa is seen as a high risk investment destination in the US, and there are many other places in the world (SE Asia and Latin America among them) with equal growth potential and far lower perceived risk.

Again, for trade to flourish there has to be some level of compatibility in the markets that are trading: you have to have something they want, and they have to have something you want. The Chinese and African economies are compatible in many ways: China imports large quantities of hydrocarbons and basic industrial raw materials. US demand in these areas is much lower and can generally be satisfied closer to home. China exports huge quantities of low cost manufactured goods, from textiles to machinery, that are in high demand in cost-sensitive developing countries.

In most of Asia Chinese goods are universally seen as being cheap but of poor quality: consumers seeking goods to flash or industries seeking durable capital goods show a strong preference for US, European, Japanese, or Korean goods. China-made goods carrying a foreign brand are more palatable, but a Chinese brand is pretty much the bottom of the pile. African consumers may get to that place as well, as consumers become more sophisticated, or the Chinese may up their game a bit.

I really can't see much basis for a campaign to increase trade with Africa at the level of national policy. What does the US need from Africa that can't be supplied closer to home? What can the US reasonably aspire to export to Africa?

[davidbfpo]

Somehow this 2009 short video statement by Scott Attran appeared today in my 'in tray' and is relevant to this thread. It is headlined:

US foreign policy is set by people who've almost no insight into human welfare, education, labour, desires or hopes.

Nice example of a USAID project in Morocco and the importance of the future generation:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...n-policy-video

[KingJaja]

The relationship between China and Africa is rapidly evolving - and demands a much more nuanced treatment than the scare stories that are the staple of Western media.

Today, he owns a five million yuan (HK$6.3 million) flat in Zhujiang New Town, Guangzhou's smartest district, drives a car worth US$64,000 and speaks Putonghua. Issa ships 50 to 200 containers home per year - full of construction materials, because "they're the most lucrative" - and makes an average US$2,000 on each container.

A friend, Yusuf Sampto - a trader with three shops in West Africa's Burkina Faso - pulls up a chair. They excitably describe stuffing suitcases with "literally millions" of US dollars to move their profits back to China once the goods have sold (they declare the cash at customs, they say). African banks can't be trusted, they explain, and it's impossible for a migrant to open a current account in the mainland.

Like most of Guangzhou's successful traders, Issa has a Chinese wife.

"She used to work for a company I ordered from, and we became friends," he says. "We had a Chinese wedding and a Muslim wedding. Her name was Xie Miemie but I renamed her Zena."

Zena is from Hainan Island and Issa was the first African man her family had ever seen.

http://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-m...ampaign=buffer