Beyond the frontline: watching ISIS

[davidbfpo]

The Israeli NGO, the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, has now published their entire report in English 'ISIS: Portrait of a Jihadi Terrorist Organization', with 264 pgs:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/Dat...1329270214.pdf

[davidbfpo]

A BBC analysis by Professor Fawaz Gerges, of LSE, on the BBC which aims to:

To make sense of the sudden rise of Islamic State (IS) and its territorial gains in Iraq and Syria, it is important to place the organisation within the broader global jihadist movement.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30681224

[davidbfpo]

Professor Scott Lucas has a commentary:https://www.opendemocracy.net/open-s...7re-told-it-is

It starts with:

Is John Kerry right to be so gung-ho about military successes against Islamic State? Not really—as the fundamental political challenges in Iraq and Syria remain unaddressed.

As he notes where is there progress, excluding the increasing Iranian influence, if not power:

The blunt reality is that, with the exception of Kobanê, there can be no effective campaign against IS without the support of a local ground force.

What is needed? Well it is not SOF and bombing, that is just about containing the Daesh. He advocates:

There are alternatives that could really challenge IS: an Iraqi Kurdistan with real international recognition and support, an Iraqi government answering to all communities, a Syrian opposition supported in a political vision that overcomes not only the jihadists but the Assad regime.

[Bill Moore]

There are alternatives that could really challenge IS: an Iraqi Kurdistan with real international recognition and support, an Iraqi government answering to all communities, a Syrian opposition supported in a political vision that overcomes not only the jihadists but the Assad regime.

Of course these would be preferred solutions, and the U.S. and others are not neglecting them by choice as this academic seems to imply, the U.S. is neglecting them because they're not in the realm of the possible at this time.

Who is the future leader in Iraq right now that is considered legitimate by all sides?

What future leader in Syria can calm troubled waters?

I'm not sure how a Kurdistan at this time would create stability. Furthermore, one report (can't confirm its validity) indicates that Kurds' relatively poor performance against ISIL as dissuaded them from pursuing statehood at this time, because they realize they're not ready for it.

Academics at times, can be rather annoying when they pretend to offer pseudo-intellectual solutions that have no basis in reality. They seem to say please listen to me you dumb governments, as I'm a PhD and much wiser than you. On the hand, "The Wisdom of Crowds" argues that experts more often than not get it wrong.

[JWing]

Fighting and Coalition air strikes are beginning to take their toll on IS's leadership. Baghdadi's two top lieutenants among growing list of top leadership being killed degrading ability of IS to govern and carry out military operations. Read more here.

[Bill Moore]

Fighting and Coalition air strikes are beginning to take their toll on IS's leadership. Baghdadi's two top lieutenants among growing list of top leadership being killed degrading ability of IS to govern and carry out military operations. Read more here.

Pardon my suspicions that this analysis may be overly optimistic. I recall hearing similar reports of we're winning since 9/11, and no doubt tactically we were. Over time those victories seem to have dissipated. I suspect ISIL will morph into something else that is less vulnerable to our air strikes, but we'll just have to wait and see.

[OUTLAW 09]

Iraq officials vow to investigate alleged massacre of Sunnis during a government campaign to seize control of Diyala
http://fw.to/oqFsQEa

Kind of late if you ask me as the media has long carried this reported massacre and placed it on the Shia militias.