Beyond the frontline: watching ISIS

[davidbfpo]

I have seen many Tweets and a few articles on the success of ISIS / Daesh's info ops, so have added this link here, rather than in the Media arena:

a very short discussion paper about the way in which terrorist groups, and specifically Islamic State, use modern encryption systems to evade surveillance. It examines how the risks of online anonymity are weighed against its many social, personal and economic benefits. It sets out a small number of recommendations about how the intelligence and security services might respond to the growing availability and use of encryption services.

Link:http://www.demos.co.uk/publications/onlineanonymity

It is a free download!

[Bill Moore]

Here is a link to the latest Frontline special on ISIS. As normal, it is very well done. It is pretty graphic, so I don't recommend watching if you have the kids in the room. ISIS are clearly criminally insane, but this special presents a balanced view and demonstrates that the Shi'a death squads are almost as evil as ISIS.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...d=2495&elqat=1

[JWing]

IS has proven nothing if not resourceful throughout its life. It now appears that it has entered the European drug trade for a source of funding, specifically bringing in Afghan heroin. Here's my article on it.

[davidbfpo]

A short interview with Will McCants (of Brookings) on his forthcoming book, that starts with:

But there's something else that makes the group unusual that has gotten less attention: ISIS says, quite openly, that its ultimate mission is to bring about the apocalypse.....the belief in an apocalyptic, has come to play an important role in the group's strategy actions. This, McCants argues, has clear implications for how ISIS thinks — and how it acts.

He ends with thsi vision being "double sided":

Apocalypticism can certainly be a powerful tool for attracting recruits and justifying what you're doing. But if you disappoint apocalyptic expectations, it can easily work against you.

Link:http://www.vox.com/2015/4/6/8341691/isis-apocalypse

[davidbfpo]

From an Israeli think tank, The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center a short paper that starts with:

One of the interesting phenomena of the civil war in Syria is the tacit understandings between two sworn enemies: the Assad regime and the terrorist organization ISIS. These understandings are about operating and marketing the products of the oil and gas fields, most of which are located in areas controlled by ISIS (see map). There are also arrangements for the distribution of electricity between the two sides. These understandings make it easier for ISIS to produce and market its oil and gas to the Syrian market. For the Syrian regime, they provide a (limited) solution to the shortage of energy resources in the territories under its control.

Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/article/20793

Money talks and I note the suspected intermediary is a Christian Syrian, with an Alawite wife, with Russian links.

One wonders if the opponents of both Bashir Assad and ISIS use this "business is business" relationship in their media campaign?

[davidbfpo]

The title was prompted by a Soufan Group intell briefing on ISIS taking part of the Yarmouk camp in Damascus, a long established Palestinian refugee camp:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ation-shields/

The briefing's main point is that ISIS needs to have people as a shield against attacks:

Fighters from the group stormed into Yarmuk refugee camp near Damascus, Syria, in part due to some of its fighters’ previous affiliation with the camp but also because it offers a sanctuary from coalition airstrikes and a population that can’t be evacuated to clear the way for a massive assault

The camp's population has shrunk massively already, IIRC from 160k to 18k and has been beseiged by the Bashir regime (including other Palestinians) for three years already.

I know ISIS control is being contested, although IIRC not by the bashir regime currently and little has been reported here on diplomatic activity.

Will ISIS in pursuing its strategy stop anyone leaving the camp? Clearly most have left already.

Personally I do not see Yarmouk as a shield for ISIS, simply as it is largely wrecked already and those who could leave have gone already. Nor are the coalition likely to mount air strikes against Yarmouk.

A comment article on the fate of Yarmouk:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...ians-arab-isis

[davidbfpo]

Although the original documents are cited and not displayed a fascinating Der Spiegel article on the ex-Iraqi AF officer who was the strategist for ISIS to gain power and success:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1029274.html

Samir Abd Muhammad al-Khlifawi was the real name of the Iraqi, whose bony features were softened by a white beard. But no one knew him by that name. Even his best-known pseudonym, Haji Bakr, wasn't widely known. But that was precisely part of the plan. The former colonel in the intelligence service of Saddam Hussein's air defense force had been secretly pulling the strings at IS for years. Former members of the group had repeatedly mentioned him as one of its leading figures. Still, it was never clear what exactly his role was. But when the architect of the Islamic State died, he left something behind that he had intended to keep strictly confidential: the blueprint for this state.