Beyond the frontline: watching ISIS

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CNBC Interview from Montgomery,Al. Of retired USAF Colonel John Warden. "We have badly underestimated their capabilities"



http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000300411#.

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Two real SME on the situation. One, Dr. Omar Ashour, now @ Exeter University, I always listen to. Here he is interviewed by Voice of Russia Today, with two others from UK Muslim groups, and provides the context for what we see today. There is a podcast and transcript:http://voiceofrussia.com/uk/news/201...ic-jihad-2074/

Here is one passage:

In terms of ideology it’s sort of interesting because the Islamic State is a fringe of a fringe. So, al-Qaeda is a fringe and it took even more extreme twist in a sense that they are using excommunication declaring others as infidels and apostates in a much wider way than al-Qaeda does.

On intervention in Iraq, with some poignant pre-conditions:

The problem is very complex. There is ISIS and there is a threat, but ISIS are there because of certain reasons and some of them have to do with how the Arab Sunni population was treated in the last few years mainly by the al-Maliki government in the aftermath of the US withdrawal and the US invasion in 2003 as well. Unless these core issues are resolved and unless you find an Iraqi elite that is willing on one hand to unite against this threat, and on the other hand, is willing to accept intervention to end it, and you have a population that is revolting against the Islamic State […] Unless you have these conditions then I don’t think an intervention would be quite successful. Maybe it will undermine it or set it back a bit but then the environment, if you have this level of oppression and this level of brutality and lack of freedom, ethnic groups and religious groups who are marginalised and repressed, then you create an environment where the Islamic State or other groups will emerge just as violent and extreme.

Secondly there's Clint Watts (CWOT on SWC) in a long interview on CSPAN's Washington Journal, which I have yet to listen to:http://www.c-span.org/video/?321100-...-response-isis

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In this article 'Middle East Time Bomb: The Real Aim of ISIS Is to Replace the Saud Family as the New Emirs of Arabia', his second (the first is Post 34) Alistair Crooke he starts with:

SIS is indeed a veritable time bomb inserted into the heart of the Middle East. But its destructive power is not as commonly understood. It is not with the "March of the Beheaders"; it is not with the killings; the seizure of towns and villages; the harshest of "justice" -- terrible though they are -- that its true explosive power lies. It is yet more potent than its exponential pull on young Muslims, its huge arsenal of weapons and its hundreds of millions of dollars.

Its real potential for destruction lies elsewhere -- in the implosion of Saudi Arabia as a foundation stone of the modern Middle East. We should understand that there is really almost nothing that the West can now do about it but sit and watch.

Link:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alasta...b_5748744.html

No wonder Iran and the Kingdom are talking.

We know there are a number of deserters from the Saudi military to ISIS; IIRC on the separate Saudi thread:

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A short BBC commentary by Professor Fawaz A Gerges:

Since the sudden appearance of the extremist Sunni Islamic State (IS), the group has seized headlines with a shocking level of blood-letting and cruelty - but can its savagery be explained...

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29123528

Here's a taster:

It is a conscious decision to terrorise enemies and impress and co-opt new recruits. IS adheres to a doctrine of total war without limits and constraints....

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Clint Watts of FPRI has a commentary, the full title being 'The U.S. Can’t Destroy ISIS, Only ISIS Can Destroy ISIS – The Unfortunate Merits of the “Let Them Rot” Strategy' and draws upon the Algerian 'lessons learnt':http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...-rot-strategy#

Given the hype in the media, some of which surely comes from within governments, I hazard that patience and following such an option is overwhelmed by those who advocate "tough action" and defeating ISIS. As if 'shock & awe' works against an insurgency.

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Carrying out beheadings and other extreme acts is unthinkable for most people, but the right cocktail of factors can make anyone an extremist, says neuroscientist Prof Ian Robertson

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/1...-savagery.html

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An analysis 'The Islamic State’s Vulnerability' by:

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an adjunct assistant professor in Georgetown University's security studies program.

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/09/the...lnerability/#_

He ends with:

The Islamic State’s many weaknesses will soon become apparent, if they aren’t already. This doesn’t mean that the group will inevitably collapse; and even if it does, its collapse might just mean that its fighters are driven back into the hands of an old familiar foe, al-Qaeda, or other Syrian and Iraqi non-state actors. The United States should approach this fight strategically, understanding both the Islamic State’s weaknesses and also the broader context of the fight.