Beyond the frontline: watching ISIS

[davidbfpo]

In this article 'Middle East Time Bomb: The Real Aim of ISIS Is to Replace the Saud Family as the New Emirs of Arabia', his second (the first is Post 34) Alistair Crooke he starts with:

SIS is indeed a veritable time bomb inserted into the heart of the Middle East. But its destructive power is not as commonly understood. It is not with the "March of the Beheaders"; it is not with the killings; the seizure of towns and villages; the harshest of "justice" -- terrible though they are -- that its true explosive power lies. It is yet more potent than its exponential pull on young Muslims, its huge arsenal of weapons and its hundreds of millions of dollars.

Its real potential for destruction lies elsewhere -- in the implosion of Saudi Arabia as a foundation stone of the modern Middle East. We should understand that there is really almost nothing that the West can now do about it but sit and watch.

Link:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alasta...b_5748744.html

No wonder Iran and the Kingdom are talking.

We know there are a number of deserters from the Saudi military to ISIS; IIRC on the separate Saudi thread:

[davidbfpo]

A short BBC commentary by Professor Fawaz A Gerges:

Since the sudden appearance of the extremist Sunni Islamic State (IS), the group has seized headlines with a shocking level of blood-letting and cruelty - but can its savagery be explained...

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29123528

Here's a taster:

It is a conscious decision to terrorise enemies and impress and co-opt new recruits. IS adheres to a doctrine of total war without limits and constraints....

[davidbfpo]

Clint Watts of FPRI has a commentary, the full title being 'The U.S. Can’t Destroy ISIS, Only ISIS Can Destroy ISIS – The Unfortunate Merits of the “Let Them Rot” Strategy' and draws upon the Algerian 'lessons learnt':http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...-rot-strategy#

Given the hype in the media, some of which surely comes from within governments, I hazard that patience and following such an option is overwhelmed by those who advocate "tough action" and defeating ISIS. As if 'shock & awe' works against an insurgency.

[davidbfpo]

Carrying out beheadings and other extreme acts is unthinkable for most people, but the right cocktail of factors can make anyone an extremist, says neuroscientist Prof Ian Robertson

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/1...-savagery.html

[davidbfpo]

An analysis 'The Islamic State’s Vulnerability' by:

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an adjunct assistant professor in Georgetown University's security studies program.

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/09/the...lnerability/#_

He ends with:

The Islamic State’s many weaknesses will soon become apparent, if they aren’t already. This doesn’t mean that the group will inevitably collapse; and even if it does, its collapse might just mean that its fighters are driven back into the hands of an old familiar foe, al-Qaeda, or other Syrian and Iraqi non-state actors. The United States should approach this fight strategically, understanding both the Islamic State’s weaknesses and also the broader context of the fight.

[davidbfpo]

Two contributions to assessing ISIS. First this in the NYT 'ISIS’ Harsh Brand of Islam Is Rooted in Austere Saudi Creed' and looks at the theological or ideological aspects.

Link:http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/25...html?referrer=

The second is an email based exchange between SME, with the title 'Around the Halls: What is ISIS' Strategy?' hosted by Brookings:http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/iran-...-isis-strategy

The final comment by Charles Lister is a good read, especially on the reaction of 'moderate' Syrian groups - hardly encouraging.

[davidbfpo]

A reasonable check list on The American Conservative, by former DoS "whistle blower" Peter van Buren:

A guide to the spin, empty gestures, and behind-the-scene players that will determine the fate of America's re-entry into Iraq.

Link:A guide to the spin, empty gestures, and behind-the-scene players that will determine the fate of America's re-entry into Iraq.

Elsewhere I've read comments by ret'd US military leaders that it will take up to three years to rebuild the Iraqi state forces and the FT has an excellent article (behind a reistration wall) using the fall of an army base as an illustration:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/ceb48014-4...#axzz3EoJ2hviA