An interesting post from Razib Khan "Islam is not a religion of the book"
http://www.unz.com/gnxp/islam-is-not...medium=twitter
I agree with the broad argument. Coming to prediction, I think a lot of real history is made by men (and some women) making models and predictions about what comes next and acting on the basis of these predictions. In the short term (and in the long term we are all dead) that can be the most important thing of all...distant intellectuals (including amateurs like us) have the luxury of sticking to whatever story we happen to like and adding a few bells and whistles to explain all obseved deviances (that is why postmarxists for example will never be out of a job, since all they are selling is entertaining stories to fellow enthusiasts and there are no limits on what can be fitted into the story with a little imagination), but real people are also fighting real wars while we discuss this. To the extent that they believe in a certain model today, they and their competitors can benefit from knowing what that model is. All sides will adjust as models fail and situations change...that is a given. And THAT, i guess, is the point of this post. And a good point it is too...
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