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Thread: Beyond the frontline: watching ISIS

  1. #101
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Professor Landis has an extensive review of ISIS:Inside the Army of Terrorand he starts with:
    Overall, this book ably accomplishes the task in a concise manner, and is a valuable, compelling read for anyone- general reader or specialist- interested in ISIS. While minor errors exist here and there and one might disagree with some of the authors’ analysis in the detail, the book is extremely well-researched, drawing on an array of sources including much original interview testimony, and the overall conclusions that emerge are hard to contest.
    Link:http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/boo...e-army-terror/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-19-2015 at 05:33 PM. Reason: Merged into the main ISIS watching thread
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  2. #102
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    Default After ISIS Execution, Angry King Abdullah Quotes Clint Eastwood to US Lawmakers

    After ISIS Execution, Angry King Abdullah Quotes Clint Eastwood to US Lawmakers

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  3. #103
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    Default After a fiery execution: who is weaker now?

    After Daesh murdered Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kassasbeh who is weaker now? ISIS or Jordan, a coalition member. Three very different articles caught my attention.

    First from Haaretz (Israeli) a short report that starts with:
    Jordan's King Abdullah vowed a relentless war against Islamic State on their own territory...
    Link:http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/1.640813?

    A longer report by Al-Jazeera, which highlights the internal situation as shown in this passage:
    Unusually for Jordan, public demonstrations on behalf of the pilot have taken explicit aim at King Abdullah, who many accuse of dragging his country — and Kassasbeh, personally — into a war it has no incentive to fight. Even the pilot’s Bararsheh tribe, whose loyalty has long helped prop up the Hashemite monarchy, has taken to the streets to call Abdullah a "coward" who takes orders from the U.S. It did not help matters that Abdullah was on a visit to Washington on Tuesday when news broke about Kassasbeh.
    Link:http://america.aljazeera.com/article...s-revenge.html

    The BBC has a multi-part report and Shiraz Maher, of ICSR, comments:
    By burning to death Jordanian pilot, militant group Islamic State is leveraging its power to asymmetrically shock its enemies....

    (He ends with) The United Arab Emirates has gone a step further and withdrawn from the coalition altogether, citing fears for the safety of its pilots.That is perhaps the most potent weapon Islamic State possess today - the carefully curated asymmetry of fear.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31129416

    There is a parallel thread on the 'Management of Savagery', which helps explain what is happening on our screens - if you view the Daesh video of the pilot's murder - and how it affects us all. Link:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21675

    RIP Muath al-Kassasbeh
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-05-2015 at 01:16 PM. Reason: Add last link, overlooked when posting
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  4. #104
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    David,

    U.S. major news networks kneejerk analysis is this event will galvanize the Arab/Muslim world to rise up against IS. It could, but more likely I see it as a event that will get turned against us increasingly over time. This can play out in multiple ways, and I hope by now we learned to how shape the narrative in a way that benefits us. So far though, we have failed repeatedly to develop a narrative that resonates with the intended audience. In fact, it seems the only people convinced that our narrative is right is us.

  5. #105
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Bill,

    I think many Western observers expect the Jordanian public to react as they did after the hotel bombings in November 2005, when polling found a marked shift against AQ:
    In a survey of over 1,000 Jordanians by the survey firm Ipsos, conducted for the Jordanian newspaper Al Ghad, as reported by the New York Times, two-thirds of Jordanians asked said they had changed their view of Al Qaeda after the bombings. More than 87 percent also said they considered Al Qaeda a terrorist organization, and almost as many said that Al Qaeda’s acts of terror did not represent Islam. In previous surveys in Jordan, Al Qaeda had enjoyed approval ratings upward of 60 percent.
    Link not id'd as wrong source on footnote

    As one article suggested will the two executed become martyrs, in Jordan or elsewhere.

    I doubt any local, official message will become known easily. Does the Jordanian state do info ops anyway or just rely on fear?
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  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Bill,

    I think many Western observers expect the Jordanian public to react as they did after the hotel bombings in November 2005, when polling found a marked shift against AQ:
    Link not id'd as wrong source on footnote

    As one article suggested will the two executed become martyrs, in Jordan or elsewhere.

    I doubt any local, official message will become known easily. Does the Jordanian state do info ops anyway or just rely on fear?
    I thought fear was an info op?

    This can unfold many ways, right now I would classify it as an event that multiple sides will leverage to support their narrative. It is hard for us to accept that IS could leverage this event to their advantage, but based on our collective experience of watching the competition in the information domain over the last few years we should recognize the narrative may not unfold in our favor.

    Three letter agencies should promote a narrative that exploits this event in ways that resonate. The State Department, based on their continuously nave statements that resonate with no one should probably just stay quiet beyond condemning the event (follow the do no harm rule).

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    It would be nice if we could amplify or support a locally produced (and believed) narrative. Any US produced IO campaign will only work at home, and only if it's any good.

    Have we tried injecting false narratives into the ISIS IO machine?

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    From watching a few minutes of CNN, my impression is that the "do no harm" rule is pretty much dead by now. It will take about 8 to 9 more days before this turns against the US.

  9. #109
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    Default A local move which expects favourable ripples around

    In an adroit, if dangerous move Jordan has:
    ...announced the release of Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi, a pro-al Qaeda, anti-Islamic State jihadist ideologue earlier today. And the news was quickly celebrated by Maqdisi's allies on social media.
    (Later) No official explanation for Maqdisi's release has been given. But a Jordanian "security source" told Reuters that "Maqdisi was expected to denounce the immolation of the Jordanian pilot" as being contrary to "faith values."
    And a Jordanian television station is already advertising an "exclusive interview" with Maqdisi, who criticizes the Islamic State once again.
    Link:http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ihadists_c.php
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  10. #110
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    Default Muslims primary target of war waged by terrorists — King

    This report is based on a speech King Abdullah was due to give in Washington DC, to a conference. It has some interesting passages and I cite only one:
    I am a Hashemite, a descendant of the Prophet Mohammad [PBUH]. My father the late King Hussein taught me, by everything he did, our traditions of service, moral courage, justice and brotherhood. He was a soldier who believed in peace, as I have been a soldier and believe in peace. This is what it means to be a Muslim. These are the values I teach my children and they will hand on to theirs.
    Link:http://jordantimes.com/share-content...s----king.html
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  11. #111
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    Default Opinion in Jordan

    Within a wider Pew report is this chart:http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...uslim-nations/

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    Default Anonymous Now Targets ISIS Members

    Anonymous Now Targets ISIS Members

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  13. #113
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    From Dr Omar Ashour, a SME on the region, via the BBC in a commentary How can Jordan aid the fight against Islamic State? Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31208815?

    In effect he concludes Jordan can do very little, in part due to its internal issues and having a limited military capability.
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  14. #114
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    Default How many fight for Daesh?

    I don't recall Joel Wing commenting on this issue, so here is a review on WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/how.../?singlepage=1

    It ends with:
    It still isn’t clear precisely how many fighters ISIL has, but its total force is likely to be closer to 100,000 than to 30,000.
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  15. #115
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    Default Some Questions for Those Pushing for US Troops Against ISIS

    Some Questions for Those Pushing for US Troops Against ISIS

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  16. #116
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    Aaron Zelin's recent article was recommended by a "lurker". He takes a wide viewpoint, comparing the models used by Daesh and AQ:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-states-model/
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    Dual posting -

    Sixty-four Islamic State fighters have been killed and dozens wounded in Egyptian-Libyan military airstrikes on Libya, announced the spokesperson of the Libyan military, reported Al-Ahram.
    http://egyptianstreets.com/2015/02/1...s-in-24-years/
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  18. #118
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    Default What ISIS Really Wants

    What ISIS Really Wants

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  19. #119
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    Default The Islamic State has its best and worst days ahead of it.

    A long article from The Atlantic by Graeme Wood, entitled 'What ISIS Really Wants' and the sub-title is the shortest read:
    The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it.
    Link:http://www.theatlantic.com/features/...-wants/384980/

    Author's mini-bio:http://gcaw.net/about-2/

    The author has some choice, direct passages, here is one:
    Some observers have called for escalation, including several predictable voices from the interventionist right (Max Boot, Frederick Kagan), who have urged the deployment of tens of thousands of American soldiers. These calls should not be dismissed too quickly: an avowedly genocidal organization is on its potential victims’ front lawn, and it is committing daily atrocities in the territory it already controls.
    One way to un-cast the Islamic State’s spell over its adherents would be to overpower it militarily and occupy the parts of Syria and Iraq now under caliphate rule. Al‑Qaeda is ineradicable because it can survive, cockroach-like, by going underground. The Islamic State cannot. If it loses its grip on its territory in Syria and Iraq, it will cease to be a caliphate.
    Malcolm Nance (SWC member) just Tweeted:
    This is a good analysis but thinks #ISIS is new Twitter to AQs old Facebook.They're OBL's great caliphate army
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-16-2015 at 08:23 PM.
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  20. #120
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    Default ISIS Is Not a Terrorist Group

    ISIS Is Not a Terrorist Group

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