US policy with an ally like the Saudis till 2016

[Ken White]

If we are PNG'd by a revolutionary government in Saudi Arabia we will not have the same options. In fact, we will be much like the Brits were when they were PNG'd by Iran in the early 50s.

We could shrug our shoulders, recall that we buy Saudi Oil not because we must but because it was cheap at one time -- and then and now it enables us to keep a nominal economic interest for blundering about in the region. We could easily get by with no middle eastern oil.

The real question is whether we need to keep blundering there. We could also easily get by with no middle eastern turmoil...

It is my opinion that "friendly despots" are obsolete. (and like "friendly fire," are not all that "friendly" either).

Agree they are obsolete and that they aren't really friendly -- but then, neither are we...

[Bob's World]

All true. It comes down to our risk tollerence and degree to which we are willing to relinquish control.

Historically, when the US was a small, developing country, and the Middle East was dominated by the Ottomans primarily, and major European powers secondarily, we were able to build tremendous influence by working within the frameworks established by the Ottomans (Trade, Schools and hospitals ok, even the odd raid to mitigate KFR operations, but don't come in preaching or looking to establish any type of colonial presence). We were always going to be an outsider, but as outsiders went we were far away and less inclined to attempt to estabish colonial controls, and all worked fairly well.

As WWII worked to disrupt European Colonial Controls, FDR's message of "end of colonialism" and free trade was well received by the populaces and governments of the region as well.

It was only as we got into the Cold War, and began creating states, manipulating, changing, and backing governments that the tide began to turn...tolerated to a degree while the Soviet threat existed, but less so ever since that faded.

I don't know if we can take our hand completely off the reins in all cases, but certainly a much lighter hand is necessary in all. But we see the Cold War as the normal we measure by. So much of our national and international systems were designed by the West to promote the West, with the US in the lead, all in the name of winning a Cold War that is long over. Thus the "good Cold Warrior" syndrome. We need to break this, but that is about changing ourselves, and we are still hard set on changing others...