Turkey in Syria & ISIS (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

A nineteen page Turkish think tank report published today 'Defending the Tomb of Suleyman Shah:Turkey’s Options and Challenges', self-explanatory:http://www.edam.org.tr/Media/IcerikF...nSahReport.pdf

[davidbfpo]

The paper cited above refer to the tomb's garrison as sixty Turkish SF soldiers in September 2014; which may be in addition to the twentyfive soldiers cited in my first post.

Numbers matter as it appears ISIS detained half of the garrison yesterday:

A media activsit 36 Turkish soldiers.....were briefly detained by Islamic State forces on Tuesday night. “The arrest of the Turkish soldiers occurred under the watch of individual elements of IS....But IS released them all Tuesday night and they returned back to their posts.

Link:http://eaworldview.com/2014/10/syria...ntion/#turkey2

It's almost as if ISIS want Turkey to intervene. Or charitably a local decision reversed by a higher command.

[Tukhachevskii]

The last time anyone issued a blank check the Austrian Empire decided to pick a fight with Serbia...and we all know what happened next. Has Jens Stoltenberg just given the Turks the green light to expand the conflict further? What with them provoking the Syrians a few years ago with some Phantoms and with the shady goings on currently I, for one, am left slightly bemused. Aside from my questioning Turkey's membership in NATO after the Cold War I am not sure assisting one vile Islamic regime against another bunch of Islamic nut-jobs inside a third party's state territory (which is, legally speaking, still the sovereign government...anyone remember the old non-intervention clause of the UN?) is going to benefit anyone or keep the problem localised (shouldn't we be helping the actually victims; Syria and Iraq?). I for one am awaiting a Turkish Gleiwitz ...

Press conference by incoming NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

Our responsibility is ... the basic responsibility is to stand up and be very clear to everyone to protect Turkey - that collective defence, that Article 5 is something which is also going to be applied if Turkey is in any way attacked. That's the reason why we have the Patriot systems deployed in Turkey. And that's the reason why I will underline that when I visit Turkey in the near future. And we plan to continue to have a military presence in Turkey with the Patriot missile systems.

When it comes to the decision in the Turkish Parliament that's not related to a NATO operation; but that's a national Turkish decision. And I think I will leave that to the Parliament of Turkey to decide.

[AmericanPride]

Michael Koplow at Foreign Affairs:

But the chaos on Turkey’s border with Syria threatens to upend [Turkey's stability]. The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has threatened Turkey’s internal balance in a number of ways. But the danger does not come from ISIS itself. Although the group has proved its military bona fides during its rampage through Iraq and Syria, it does not present a serious territorial challenge to Turkey, which has a large NATO-backed army, a modern air force, and the resources to hit back at ISIS should it choose. Rather, it is the follow-on effects of ISIS’ march through the region that may herald a return to the bad old days.

During the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the we (the West) failed to anticipate the impact of Palestinian refugees on Jordan. And when Jordan expelled them, again there was a failure to understand their impact on Lebanon. And when the Iraq War started, there was a failure to understand the impact of refugees on Syria. And now that Syrian refugees are flowing into Turkey (and fighters in the opposite direction), what will be the impact within Turkey?

[CrowBat]

A good introduction to relations between Turkey and Syria can be found here

It's quite dated (published in 1989), but some things simply never change.

[davidbfpo]

A short commentary from The Soufan Group, which covers all points:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-a-good-thing/

[Tukhachevskii]

CHP lawmakers accuse Turkish government of 'protecting ISIL and al-Nusra militants'

AKP Opens a Hospital Only for Jihadists

Lets not forget that Turkey helped manage the "Jihadi highway" that funneled jihadis and equipment into Syria, or that they were intent on toppling Assad so bad that they encouraged the very idiots who are now, apparently, a threat to them. But what do I know?

From: ISIS and the Threat to Turkey

ISIS may have become a security threat to Turkey, but many blame the very existence of this threat on the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) itself. Turkey's open-door policy since the beginning of the Syrian crisis has allowed many Syrians jihadists to freely enter its territory, and Ankara has been accused of turning a blind eye, if not direct support, to foreign jihadists in its territory. Syrian Kurds continue to argue that Turkey provided Sunni jihadists, including ISIS, with arms and sanctuary. They allege that Turkey has done this to counter the Kurdish militant group People's Protection Unit (YPG), which it regards as the Syrian arm of the Kurdish terrorist group that has long plagued Turkey, the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK).

It's not only foreigners who fault the Turkish government on this issue. In an address to his party meeting on June 17, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkey's main opposition leader, openly accused Erdogan of supporting ISIS, saying that for the first time in history Turkey has become a country that supports terrorism. "The biggest terror attack in our history was done by al Qaeda in 2003, and yet so many foreign al Qaeda fighters have crossed over to the Middle East from Turkey. We have paid the price for this, and we continue paying it," Kilicdaroglu said. Following the speech, the Republican People's Party (CHP) submitted a proposal to the parliament for an inquiry into ISIS funding by Turkey.

On the same day, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Turkish Nationalist Party (MHP), also made a similar speech. Calling the apparent shift in the government's Syria policy the product of "a late confession of remorse," he explained that those who helped and provided support to ISIS in Syria are now primarily responsible for the blood that is being shed. "Unfortunately the AKP is in this mess and it is a rotten ring of this dark hand that has inflamed this ISIS monster. The AKP's Syria policy is the reason why our borders are now filled with radical and savage elements," Bahceli said.