Turkey in Syria & ISIS (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

One analyst concludes that:

on the way out, reports indicate that the convoy passed through Jarabulus – ISIS controlled territory.

There are scattered reports that ISIS stopped the convoy at the Qara Qawzak Bridge. As far as I can tell, ISIS controls the bridge. Pro-PYD folks have tweeted that there was some sort of interaction between the Turkish convoy and ISIS at the bridge. After the interaction, the convoy is reported to have continued on to Manbij, before turning towards Jarabulus, and then re-entering Turkey through Karkamis. I find this odd.


The most straight-forward way to go about this would have been to simply turn back and return through PYD controlled territory. Why did the TSK choose to proceed over the bridge and then return through ISIS controlled territory? Here is the route

Link:http://turkeywonk.wordpress.com/2014/04/24/2945/

The map below shows the entire route.

[davidbfpo]

Now there is a video showing the Turkish convoy returning via ISIS controlled land, I expect the big black flag is a sign:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NWr9rJT19c

Yesterday source has an update too:http://turkeywonk.wordpress.com/2014...youtube-video/

[davidbfpo]

As the Turkish parliament debates renewal of permission for Turkish troops to cross into Iraq and Syria, just by coincidence Tweets that ISIS have moved closer to the tomb:

Deputy PM Arinc says ISIS militants are advancing on Suleyman Shah tomb in northern Syria.

[davidbfpo]

A nineteen page Turkish think tank report published today 'Defending the Tomb of Suleyman Shah:Turkey’s Options and Challenges', self-explanatory:http://www.edam.org.tr/Media/IcerikF...nSahReport.pdf

[davidbfpo]

The paper cited above refer to the tomb's garrison as sixty Turkish SF soldiers in September 2014; which may be in addition to the twentyfive soldiers cited in my first post.

Numbers matter as it appears ISIS detained half of the garrison yesterday:

A media activsit 36 Turkish soldiers.....were briefly detained by Islamic State forces on Tuesday night. “The arrest of the Turkish soldiers occurred under the watch of individual elements of IS....But IS released them all Tuesday night and they returned back to their posts.

Link:http://eaworldview.com/2014/10/syria...ntion/#turkey2

It's almost as if ISIS want Turkey to intervene. Or charitably a local decision reversed by a higher command.

[Tukhachevskii]

The last time anyone issued a blank check the Austrian Empire decided to pick a fight with Serbia...and we all know what happened next. Has Jens Stoltenberg just given the Turks the green light to expand the conflict further? What with them provoking the Syrians a few years ago with some Phantoms and with the shady goings on currently I, for one, am left slightly bemused. Aside from my questioning Turkey's membership in NATO after the Cold War I am not sure assisting one vile Islamic regime against another bunch of Islamic nut-jobs inside a third party's state territory (which is, legally speaking, still the sovereign government...anyone remember the old non-intervention clause of the UN?) is going to benefit anyone or keep the problem localised (shouldn't we be helping the actually victims; Syria and Iraq?). I for one am awaiting a Turkish Gleiwitz ...

Press conference by incoming NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

Our responsibility is ... the basic responsibility is to stand up and be very clear to everyone to protect Turkey - that collective defence, that Article 5 is something which is also going to be applied if Turkey is in any way attacked. That's the reason why we have the Patriot systems deployed in Turkey. And that's the reason why I will underline that when I visit Turkey in the near future. And we plan to continue to have a military presence in Turkey with the Patriot missile systems.

When it comes to the decision in the Turkish Parliament that's not related to a NATO operation; but that's a national Turkish decision. And I think I will leave that to the Parliament of Turkey to decide.

[AmericanPride]

Michael Koplow at Foreign Affairs:

But the chaos on Turkey’s border with Syria threatens to upend [Turkey's stability]. The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has threatened Turkey’s internal balance in a number of ways. But the danger does not come from ISIS itself. Although the group has proved its military bona fides during its rampage through Iraq and Syria, it does not present a serious territorial challenge to Turkey, which has a large NATO-backed army, a modern air force, and the resources to hit back at ISIS should it choose. Rather, it is the follow-on effects of ISIS’ march through the region that may herald a return to the bad old days.

During the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the we (the West) failed to anticipate the impact of Palestinian refugees on Jordan. And when Jordan expelled them, again there was a failure to understand their impact on Lebanon. And when the Iraq War started, there was a failure to understand the impact of refugees on Syria. And now that Syrian refugees are flowing into Turkey (and fighters in the opposite direction), what will be the impact within Turkey?

[Tukhachevskii]

One analyst concludes that:

Link:http://turkeywonk.wordpress.com/2014/04/24/2945/

The map below shows the entire route.

Good question... (regardless of who asked it; I've been wondering that myself)

"People need to ask as to why hasn’t ISIS blown up any Ottoman tombs anywhere in Syria and Iraq while they destroyed everyone else’s who wasn’t Ottoman?"

[davidbfpo]

A good question repeated by Tukhachevskii:

People need to ask as to why hasn’t ISIS blown up any Ottoman tombs anywhere in Syria and Iraq while they destroyed everyone else’s who wasn’t Ottoman?

The cited source refers to such tombs, but are there any I ask?

On a quick search I found two other mosques do have tombs, in Deir ez-Zor now held by ISIS and another method has been used:

The rooms that contain the tombs have been filled with cement

Link:http://www.worldbulletin.net/haber/1...hreat-in-syria

As Turkey regards the Suleyman Shah tomb as its own national territory and not another tombs you have an answer. The other Ottoman era tombs are not Turkish territory.