Gazing in the Congo (DRC): the dark heart of Africa (2006-2017)

[Stan]

Not too sure I agree with this logic. Seems to me the embassy had more than sufficient intel and the traffic to DC was relatively clear. Our folks concluded little, and that certainly led to a cluster foxtrot.

Page 84

In defense of the decision makers, this was a definite case of
information overload and very real confusion over whether or
not the massacres were genocide or a natural result of renewed
civil war, but it is possible that policy makers in Belgium, the
United States, France, and the United Nations understood or at
least suspected the threat of genocide.

Far too much emphasis on air power without a clue as to what Africans think or respond to.

Interdiction could have been used in the form of punitive
air strikes and might have coerced Rwanda’s interim government
leaders to stop the genocide and return to the Arusha
Accords. This would have required detailed and accurate intelligence
on what centers of gravity those leaders possessed.

[Tom Odom]

In defense of the decision makers, this was a definite case of
information overload and very real confusion over whether or
not the massacres were genocide or a natural result of renewed
civil war, but it is possible that policy makers in Belgium, the
United States, France, and the United Nations understood or at
least suspected the threat of genocide.

I know that I don't as it is pure unadulterated bull####.

Richard Clarke as a member of the US decisionmaking apparaturs ran the show that put further African episodes after Somalia as below the US interest radar. In other words, the Rwandans weren't important enough so we did not use the "G: word lest we be forced to adhere to the treaties regarding genocide. The administration knew and they knew it was coming as did the UN. They chose first to ignore the warnings and shoot the messengers like Dallaire who gave the warnings (or get him pulled or later get UNAMIR pulled). Then they chose to delay recognition until the bodies washing ashore in Uganda or Zaire made it impossible to say other wise. Then they started demanding air shows over Goma so they could prove how concerned they all were--missing the point we were helping the killers.

Otherwise I will read the whole thing. Airpower as a tool against genocide? Maybe

Tom

[slapout9]

Tom, Stan it was all way above my head so I thought I would get some expert analysis.

[Tom Odom]

Yep peace is breaking out all over the Congo

Thousands flee rebel advance in Congo
(CNN) -- Rebel attacks north of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo prompted thousands more civilians to flee Tuesday, and U.N. officials said a U.N. convoy trying to provide security near Goma also was attacked.


Thousands of displaced Congolese on Tuesday line the road near the Kibati camp north of Goma, Congo.

"Five rockets were fired on two U.N. armored personnel carriers that were part of the convoy of MONUC Blue Helmets near Kalengera," according to a report on the Web site of the U.N. Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, known by its French acronym, MONUC.

"MONUC reiterates that under its mandate it will continue to intervene with all of its means to ensure the protection of civilians and to protect the urban centers of North Kivu," MONUC said, referring to the province in eastern Congo.

The one thing about livin' in
Santa Carla -- or the Congo---I never could stomach...

All the damn vampires.

Tom

[Stan]

The attacks by rebels of the National Congress for the Defense of People, or CNDP, led civilians to seek refuge in Goma, the provincial capital, where national army forces surround the city ...

Tom, now that's a level of comfort wouldn't you say?

déjà vu me thinks

[Tom Odom]

Comfort with Congolese troops?

U.N. Blocked From Pulling Workers Out of Congo
...But the attempt to evacuate roughly 50 aid workers trapped in the battle zone deep in the forest was halted after furious villagers attacked the armed convoy and blocked the road, United Nations officials said. In the melee, even Congolese government forces fired on the convoy, the officials said.

“The situation was very chaotic,” said Ivo Brandau, a United Nations spokesman in Kinshasa, Congo’s capital. “The convoy had to turn back.”

United Nations troops deployed helicopters and established infantry lines to try to prevent the rebels from overrunning Rutshuru and from reaching Goma, the provincial capital, said Alan Doss, the top United Nations official in the country. The rebels were breaking up into small groups to try to get around the United Nations forces, he said, but the peacekeepers were determined to try to repulse any attack on Goma, if it came.

[Tom Odom]

Sort of BBC backgrounder travelogue

How Congo's heaven became hell

As Congolese government troops and UN peacekeepers engage in fierce fighting with rebel forces in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, BBC World affairs correspondent Mark Doyle assesses why it is such a volatile region.

Eastern DR Congo was once memorably described by the journalist Kate Thomas.

The place "looks like heaven", she wrote, "but it feels like hell".

She was right. There are towering volcanoes, rushing rivers and sparkling lakes. Heaven indeed. Eastern DR Congo feels like a different country to the capital, Kinshasa

It certainly is not, Kansas, Dorothy

Tom

[Michael F]

I've been cruising the local and international press.

Battlefield:

Rebell forces after capturing Rumangabo on Sunday, moved South towards Goma and North Towards Rutshuru:

• Goma: CNDP forces have been stopped by a joint UN-FARDC defensive position south of Kibumba (a village located between 02 volcanoes, making it a real bottleneck). UN gunships have bombed rebell positions but they seem to hold on as of now. In Goma, after a certain panic on Tuesday, the population returned to its "normal" activities despite the flow of refugees in the city and around.
  
• Rutshuru: This morning, CNDP forces had reportedly infiltrated the city, left undefended by the FARDC. They stay out of sight of the MONUC unit in town.

Diplomacy:

Kabila has asked for a multinational force to deploy in Goma. The Eu FA ministers are considering the question but seem reluctant.
The MONUC head's request for 02 additionnal Bn has received a mixed answer from the UN security council...He won't get any reinforcement.

The DRC minister of Foreign affairs has been to Kigali to propose a global negotiation with Kagame. He was said Rwanda has nothing to do with DRC, except DRC should hunt down the FDLR.

Outlook

I don't think Nkunda will attack Goma (risky ops, overstreched forces, huge political consequences,...). He might want to get Kabila to do some concessions immediatly.

Reguards

[Stan]

Hey Michael !

Interesting synopsis.

I on the other hand think Goma is the target and Nkunda is counting on the Congolese to be at their typical best (assuming he won't come to Goma while they rustle locals, drink, loot, you name it). I hope I'm remotely wrong, but even here in the frozen north I have the ibie jeebies having just spoken to a Rescue Services friend working both in The Sudan and now Congo.

If Nkunda is intend on making a point, Goma it is

Regards, Stan

[Michael F]

Hey Stan,

You might be right.

After a night of plundering, the FARDC left the city. MONUC Bde forces are locked inside their compounds and Nkunda proposed to "participate to the securization" of the city.

Surely, Kabila is in danger now. He lost the 3rd city of the country. (Coup plotters may consider it the best moment to take actions.
MONUC is also in trouble. It promised to defend Goma. If it fails, stays and has to be there "in company of CNDP", you can bet demonstrations around the country will target MONUC building and staff.

Lots of discussions in the EU about deploying a EU battlegroup (1.700 men) in Goma. Some nations are not so keen (high risks). It will take at least another 10 days for them to agree and a ad hoc BG should be established (BE, FR, SP ????)

[Tom Odom]

Michael,

Good intsums. Always expect the ANC/FAZ?FADRC to do 2 things:

a. Loot and rape the locals

b. Run away

Personally I believe that the DRC is too big and will ultimately break up--as it has on may occasions--and stay that way. The overall impact of the Rwandan Civil War and its spread into Zaire/DRC was to hasten that break up. Kinshasa is too distant and too self-centered to effectively govern the hinterlands. When Belgium had the Congo and the roads, railroads, and river transport systems set the standard for the continent, those lines of communication backed with the Belgian-led ANC kept it together. None of that exists anymore as you know. I agree completely that Kabila is at risk.

As for the EU sending a combat force to the DRC, I have real doubts. How do they sell that to the public? What would its ROE and mandate be? Backstop MONUC, which already has 17K troops and wants more?

Tom

[Michael F]

Michael,

Good intsums. Always expect the ANC/FAZ?FADRC to do 2 things:

a. Loot and rape the locals

b. Run away

Personally I believe that the DRC is too big and will ultimately break up--as it has on may occasions--and stay that way. The overall impact of the Rwandan Civil War and its spread into Zaire/DRC was to hasten that break up. Kinshasa is too distant and too self-centered to effectively govern the hinterlands. When Belgium had the Congo and the roads, railroads, and river transport systems set the standard for the continent, those lines of communication backed with the Belgian-led ANC kept it together. None of that exists anymore as you know. I agree completely that Kabila is at risk.

As for the EU sending a combat force to the DRC, I have real doubts. How do they sell that to the public? What would its ROE and mandate be? Backstop MONUC, which already has 17K troops and wants more?

Tom

About FARDC plundering/raping/deserting, lets just say they do what they are the best at....

Too many tribes, too big country,... Indeed. On the other hand, leaving DRC explode would mean a huge humanitarian and human right cahos on a scale unprecedempted. Just imagine Kasaians in Katanga, Tutsis in both Kivus, non-Kongo in Bas-Congo,... would be victims of ethnic cleansing. DRC is a failed state but dividing it would only create further chaos in my opinion.

A EU mission will surely have a limited mandate:

• In time (03 to 05 months)
• Mandate (limited ROE because its deployement would require some agreement with all local actors and among the various EU troop contributors-SPINS).
• Geography (limited to Goma, unthinkable to deploy in the whole North Kivu).
• Participating nations (France, ironically, has the EU presidency that could push to deploy forces on the border with Rwanda, Belgium has to overcome the Rwanda 94 syndrom before deploying Peacemakers in Central Africa, Germany does not care, UK is not EU minded and pro-Rwanda, Spain might want to balance the recent decision of its general to quit MONUC,...).

Anyway, they must decide by the end of this week, meaning the EU ad hoc BG will be deployed no sooner than 20 days....Late.

[Tom Odom]

CNN just had Nkunda on cell phone:

Amid chaos in Congo, rebel leader explains himself
GOMA, Congo (AP) -- The rebel general besieging Congo's eastern provincial capital said Thursday that he wants direct talks with the government about security and his objections to a $5 billion deal that gives China access to the region's mineral resources.


Children eat bread and porridge at a displaced people's camp 12 kilometers north of Goma in Congo.

1 of 4 Gen. Laurent Nkunda said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press that the reason he called a cease-fire Wednesday as he reached the gates of Goma was to try to stop chaos in the city.

He said he wants U.N. peacekeepers to help refugees return home.

Nkunda, leading a Tutsi rebellion in eastern Congo, said the government is not protecting the country's Tutsi minority. He said he turned down a government offer of $2.5 million to stop fighting because he could not abandon his mission to protect Congo's people.

and to put the FADRC in context:

On Thursday, army Col. Jonas Padiri said the situation was calm. Soldiers were patrolling the city in trucks; one soldier, sitting by the side of the road, wore a Darth Vader mask. Some soldiers appeared drunk at 8 a.m.
Asked whether the army would respect Nkunda's cease-fire, Padiri told AP: "You're going to have to ask the governor that."

I cannot make this caca up

Tom

[Stan]

Tom, I just finished watching the CNN recaps. Some kind of corridor intended to assist the refugee situation. Nothing like a General with a kind heart.

I gotta love the Chinese mineral hording... nice twist and without dogging the US for once.

Also a brief historical report from a Relief International spokeswoman who among other revelations stated 20 dead and numerous rapes in Goma following a festive evening

I'm told there's a FARDC youtube video out complete with chants

[Tom Odom]

Goma FADRC

Thousands Flee From Congo Camp As Rebels Advance

FADRC in "action"

I just love the idea of a "Normal military life" in the Congo

[PhilR]

The following quote is from the "Nightwatch" document put out every day from AFCEA (Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association). This report can be received via subscription or just reading it on the web (http://www.afcea.org/mission/intel/nightwatch.asp):

"The Times of London’s analyst reported that Nkunda via his deputy John Bosco Ntaganda is a proxy for Rwandan President Paul Kagame, a graduate of the US Command and General Staff College and one of the most brilliant strategists of the age in any culture.

In this analysis, Kagame lacks the forces to annex eastern Congo and its mineral wealth, having tried unsuccessfully in the past. Now he is working through proxies to extend a Rwandan/Tutsi sphere of influence into eastern Congo so that any mineral exports from Kivu Province transit Rwanda to the Indian Ocean. This arrangement would also ensure that the majority Bahutu are prevented from attacking the Watutsi."

I've underlined the pasage I've found interesting. I have a passing knowledge of the history and situation (feeble, actually, compared to SWJ contributors to this thread), but I'd be interested in opinions on the comment on Kagame and any supporting material that one could read to support this contention (analysis/history, etc.).
Semper fi,
Phil

[Tom Odom]

The following quote is from the "Nightwatch" document put out every day from AFCEA (Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association). This report can be received via subscription or just reading it on the web (http://www.afcea.org/mission/intel/nightwatch.asp):

"The Times of London’s analyst reported that Nkunda via his deputy John Bosco Ntaganda is a proxy for Rwandan President Paul Kagame, a graduate of the US Command and General Staff College and one of the most brilliant strategists of the age in any culture.

In this analysis, Kagame lacks the forces to annex eastern Congo and its mineral wealth, having tried unsuccessfully in the past. Now he is working through proxies to extend a Rwandan/Tutsi sphere of influence into eastern Congo so that any mineral exports from Kivu Province transit Rwanda to the Indian Ocean. This arrangement would also ensure that the majority Bahutu are prevented from attacking the Watutsi."

I've underlined the pasage I've found interesting. I have a passing knowledge of the history and situation (feeble, actually, compared to SWJ contributors to this thread), but I'd be interested in opinions on the comment on Kagame and any supporting material that one could read to support this contention (analysis/history, etc.).
Semper fi,
Phil

I have not tracked Kagame's relationship with Nkunda or his deputy. I doubt the Times has any evidence to support its claim other than supposition. On the global scene, however, Kagame is an astute player and he values greatly the non-government support he is drawing in his efforts to move Rwanda forward. Will he take advantage of the flow of minerals should Goma fall to Nkunda? No doubt. That the West (as per the Times "analysis" or the campaign against "Vampires") somehow sees this as unfair is classically hypocritical.

On Kagame as a military genius--yes but not because the man graduated from our CGSC. He did not; I wish he had taught there. Rather he spent the initial months as part of the foreign student influx that happens in the summer but left when his childhood friend and leader of the RPF, Fred Rwigyema was killed in the initial foray. Kagame then left and infiltrated Rwanda to extract and rebuild the RPF as a fighting force. I would put Paul Kagame as a political-military-social genius.

Tom

[Stan]

Would be more than pleased to read the article, but the link is now dead (or, I have to join first). Searching for say Nkunda comes up with nothing.

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[Stan]

Some very interesting links and stories at France 24

Tutsi rebel leader Laurent Nkunda, who has said he can grab the strategic eastern city whenever he wants...

Only 850 United Nations peacekeepers stand between Goma and Nkunda's forces

Strange but typically French interview with Nkunda as well.

[Tom Odom]

The Democratic Republic of Congo's east is the scene of a "massacre" on a scale rarely seen in Africa, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said Friday before leaving for the strife-torn region.

"This is a massacre such as Africa has probably never seen, which is taking place virtually before our eyes, with more than a million refugees, with very targeted attacks, with sexual mutilations which are a basic fact of warfare in the area," Kouchner told French radio Europe 1.

Where was this guy in 1994?

I am sure he will be well recieved in Kigali...

Tom