Gazing in the Congo (DRC): the dark heart of Africa (2006-2017)

[carl]

M-A:

The HRW report said that the LRA attacked a group of voters. Are they hiring themselves out to some local politician or did they just take advantage of a some people who were out in the open?

[Stan]

DR Congo: Rein in Security Forces
http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/12/02/d...ecurity-forces

Over 18 deads according to HRW. Main perpetrators: presidential guards.

But internal security minister said they were not deployed...

The link's top picture is at N'djili and the maroon berets are the 31st para living right across the street.

Carl, if you recall your time in Zaire, everybody was accessible and hiring some armed thugs was a question of money - even the venerable DSP.

[M-A Lagrange]

Carl:

I cannot confirm anything about LRA. Communications in DRC are difficult at the momment. Government in jaming international lines and SMS.

Stan:

I cannot comment on HRW. But Lember Mende just did. He said presidential convoy did not kill anyone...
The link to the article in french on digital congo (pro government)

Le gouvernement de la Rdc rejette les accusations de l’Ong Human Right Watch

DRC government reject HRW accusations
http://www.digitalcongo.net/article/80026

I am glad US Embassador took the decision to finally criticise the electoral process. Better late than never.
I hope he will keep on following that line.
Who ever won those elections (Kabila or Tshisekedi, I do not care), it has to be through a credible and transparent process without frauds.

[Stan]

President Joseph Kabila is leading Democratic Republic of Congo's election with 46% of the vote, results show.

And much like the 90s...

A senior official close to Mr Kabila has warned that the army could be deployed if the "situation becomes too chaotic for the police".

Crisis Watch now (once again) has DRC listed as Conflict Risk Alert status.

Fears violence will escalate following 28-30 presidential elections marred by disorganization, allegations of fraud and violence, and subsequent call by 4 opposition candidates for results to be invalidated. SADC, AU observers 30 Nov said polls success, no basis for annulment.

[davidbfpo]

Moderator's Note

On the 8th December 2011 this thread's title was changed from 'Congo-Rwandan War: the Ever Ready Rabbit', to Gazing in the Congo (DRC): the dark heart of Africa, which recognises that matters Congo (DRC) are the focus.

This thread has been running for four years and is the largest Africa thread, in post and views.

[davidbfpo]

A backgrounder on the DRC:http://www.opendemocracy.net/pete-jo...ongo-elections

It also, however partial the author is, reminds us that some can make lots of money in the DRC and so pay for power.

[M-A Lagrange]

Urgent Media Release: DR Congo: Saving the ElectionsKinshasa/Nairobi/Brussels | 8 Dec 2011

A week after presidential and legislative polls, the Democratic Republic of Congo faces a political crisis that could plunge it back into major violence. Preliminary results, expected today, risk sparking opposition protests that, in turn, prompt heavy-handed repression by Congolese security forces and wider disorder. To avert violence, Congolese authorities must take urgent measures to salvage a reasonably representative result out of a badly flawed process. The United Nations, African Union and European Union must work together to mediate with Congolese leaders a way out of the crisis.

Last week tens of millions of Congolese cast ballots in only the second elections since the country’s brutal civil war. The vote marked the culmination of a troubled year of preparations, with the playing field gradually skewed towards incumbent president Joseph Kabila. Constitutional changes dropped the requirement for a run-off, which, with opposition leaders failing to unite behind a candidate, effectively split their vote. Kabila loyalists were appointed to the election commission and the Supreme Court, which settles electoral disputes. Despite discrepancies in registration figures, opposition parties and observers were unable to audit voter rolls. The state-run media drummed up support for the president. Nonetheless, considerably less popular than when he won the 2006 polls, Kabila faced stiff competition, especially from veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi. With another candidate, Vital Kamerhe, threatening to sap Kabila’s votes in the Kivus – vital to his win five years ago – the president’s re-election was far from secure.

The vote itself was plagued by chaotic management and reports of localised violence and rigging – including voter intimidation and pre-marked ballots. Scheduled on November 28, it was extended for two days as materials arrived late and many names were missing from voter lists. International observers, including from the EU and the Carter Center, reported widespread irregularities – though as few ventured outside major towns they may have missed the worst abuses.

Counting has been as unruly as voting, and dangerously opaque. Criteria for disqualifying ballots are unclear, with Kinshasa – an opposition stronghold – disproportionately affected. Most significantly, the electoral commission has refused to publish results by polling station, which would permit their verification by opposition parties and observers. Election day flaws were bad enough; but perceptions that results are fiddled behind closed doors would spell disaster.

Congo’s electoral woes reflect the country’s broader lack of democratic and institutional development since 2006. But they also stem from weak international and continental engagement. Despite reports by the UN Joint Human Rights Office of human rights violations during the campaign, the UN mission, MONUSCO, has been reluctant to criticise openly the government and the electoral authorities. MONUSCO has also apparently shied away from providing the good offices envisaged in its Security Council mandate; a vital role given the opposition’s lack of confidence in Congolese institutions. Donors too – especially the EU and the UK, who partly funded the polls, and the U.S. – have been largely ineffective in preventing Kabila’s consolidation of power and stacking the decks.

A sense of foreboding now hangs over Kinshasa. On the eve of elections a fierce crackdown by the security forces against opposition protesters left, according to Human Rights Watch, eighteen dead and more than 100 injured. During voting, opposition supporters and authorities clashed in Kasai and Katanga, while other areas reported sporadic violence, including election materials destroyed and voters prevented from casting ballots. The arrival of reinforcements from the presidential guard to military camps on the outskirts of the capital and the removal of certain officers are ominous signs. Both sides can easily mobilise militias and armed youth groups.

Over the weekend thousands of Congolese reportedly crossed into neighbouring Congo-Brazzaville, fearing violence. Rumours of machetes distributed, gangs mobilising and a heavy security presence risk spreading panic in the capital. Leaders of the Catholic Church, which deployed some 30,000 observers – more than any other group -- during polling, are reluctant to publish their findings in the fear that they would fan tension. Over the weekend Bishop Nicolas Djombo described the situation as a “train running into the wall”. The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor, meanwhile, has stated that the DRC situation was under watch.

The electoral commission’s preliminary results, due shortly, will almost certainly show Kabila leading. But given the body’s partisanship and widespread irregularities, they are unlikely to inspire much confidence. Opposition politicians will reject them out of hand. The Supreme Court should resolve disputes, but with that body also stuffed with Kabila loyalists, losers are more likely to take their grievances to the streets. The scale of bloodshed is difficult to predict: Kinshasa will bear the brunt of clashes, but violence could explode in other areas, especially opposition strongholds like the Eastern Kasai, where the governor has already declared a state of emergency, Western Kasai, South Kivu, Lubumbashi and Equateur. Splits within the army cannot be ruled out.

Urgent international and regional action is needed both to rescue the elections and to persuade Congolese leaders to refrain from violence. Neither will be easy. Widespread technical flaws and deliberate fudging makes revealing genuine results difficult, while Kabila’s contortion of democratic institutions leaves few avenues for elites to resolve disputes peacefully. Amid deep polarisation in Kinshasa, the two leading candidates appear reluctant to even to talk to each other, let alone accept defeat. But the following measures offer the best hope:

•The election commission must count ballots transparently, according to the Congolese election law, and in the presence of local and international observers – and publicly announce it will do so. It must publish results polling station by polling station, to allow for independent verification, both for presidential results and for the almost forgotten legislative contests.
•Authorities must explain clearly how political parties and observers can contest the results of any polling station. Those stations that returned suspicious results or where observers report irregularities should be subject to rigorous investigation – again in the presence of observers – with clear criteria applied when disqualifying ballots. Voters in areas where polling did not take place should be given the opportunity to vote.
•All Congolese leaders must avoid inflammatory language. Given that protests will almost certainly turn violence, opposition politicians should appeal immediately to their supporters to stay off the streets.
•If protests do occur, security forces must refrain from heavy handed responses – with clear instructions along those lines given by military and police commanders and by the president. Any violence should be subject to investigation by Congolese and international human rights groups, as well as the ICC, if appropriate.
•The UN, AU and EU should urgently dispatch a high-level team to mediate between factions. A power sharing deal should be avoided, but mediators should explore options for alternative dispute resolution or independent oversight of existing mechanisms – possibly under AU auspices and with international support – given distrust in the responsible Congolese institutions. Mediators must also devise a way to avert a constitutional crisis, with Kabila’s term officially expiring this week.
•In the meantime, the UN, donors and regional leaders must avoid statements that could legitimise a badly flawed vote and destroy what is left of their credibility in the Congo. They cannot paper over electoral flaws. No leader should be congratulated until all disputes are resolved.
•The UN should deploy additional peacekeepers to the western provinces and Kinshasa or risk abandoning its mandate of civilian protection. A bloodbath in the capital of a country hosting the world’s largest UN peace operation is unthinkable.
Beyond the immediate danger of results being rejected and violence escalating, a president with an illegitimate man.

[carl]

I remember talking to one of the guys who guarded our house and office just after the election in 2006. He was a very reflective and dignified guy. When I asked what he thought about the election results he thought for a second and said if Kabila didn't do a good job, they would just vote him out in the next election. He really believed that.

I know that there was never much of chance that that would happen but it saddens me that his belief in the future has been dashed so soon.

[M-A Lagrange]

US ambassador called the Independant National Electoral Commition to publish results in the most transparent way:

Ambassadeur des USA en RDC - J. Entwistle: « La publication des résultats des bureaux de vote assure la transparence du processus électoral»
http://7sur7.cd/index.php?option=com...7:le-potentiel

USA Ambassador in DRC J. Entwistle: "polling stations results publication ensure electoral process transparancy"

Sorry, I couldn't find a link in english. (I checked the embassy site.)
This is a major move.

And Carl:
your guard was right. Congolese expressed themselves; they don't want Tshisekedi that much. What they want is Kabila out.

[Stan]

President Joseph Kabila has won the Democratic Republic of Congo's election, provisional results show.

"The Independent National Electoral Commission certifies that candidate Kabila Kabange Joseph has obtained the simple majority of votes," said election commission chief Daniel Ngoy Mulunda.

On Thursday, he said the results had been delayed again in order to "assure the credibility" of the numbers.

In the eastern city of Goma, people started to celebrate as soon as the results were announced on national TV and radio, reports the BBC's Joshua Mmali in the city.

[davidbfpo]

In a surprising move Congolese residents in the UK have protested noisly in Central London yesterday:

A group of more than 200 DR Congo demonstrators have caused an emergency evacuation of Oxford Circus Tube station in central London, British Transport Police (BTP) has said.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16103029

Today there was a noisy protest in Birmingham, outside the BBC base; spotted on the local TV news, but not indexed as a report yet.

I don't recall the UK Congolese community being so active before.

[M-A Lagrange]

Congo’s Kabila re-elected with 49 pct, even as opposition leader declares himself president

Columns of smoke smudged the sky above opposition neighborhoods where angry young men burned tires, sporadic shots pierced the air, and police wearing helmets and shin guards patrolled the streets. Across town in parts of Kinshasa loyal to Kabila, women cheered from balconies and supporters staged small victory parades across the wide boulevards.
“I reject these results, and in fact I see them as a provocation against our people. .... it’s scandalous and vulgar,” the opposition leader said by telephone late Friday. “We have done our own calculations, and I received 54 percent. To Kabila’s 26 percent. His term is finished. I am the president. It’s me that got the votes of the people.”
Tshisekedi said that he has asked his supporters to remain calm and has not yet given the order for them to flood the streets until he sees if diplomatic efforts led by the international community will change the situation.
Here, Tshisekedi got twice as many votes as Kabila. It’s difficult for people to understand how he could have lost, especially in the downtrodden neighborhoods where most of his supporters live, and where people in wheelchairs and women with eyes covered in cataracts stood in the rain for hours for a chance to give Tshisekedi their vote on Nov. 28.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...QiO_story.html

In fact the problem is not Kinshasa. As Vital Kamerhe just demonstrated it in the hours following the results announcement, CENI data are extremely questionable.
According to CENI, in Katanga:
There has been 3 224 483 voters. Among those ballots 86 531 were blanc or non valid. Therefore valid ballots are: 3 137 952.
But if you take the scores of the candidates, you end in a total of 3 137 889 votes.
(http://www.ceni.gouv.cd/resultats.aspx link to CENI web site if you want to do the calculation)
Let’s face it: it’s too messy to be credible.
But worst, if international community is validating such a messy process... Then it's finish of the international community credibility as a whole. It's more than DRC elections that are a stacke here. It's the whole idea of democracy as a legitimate way of governance.

[Stan]

Cops arrest Congolese protesters

Members of Toronto’s 10,000-strong Congolese joined others in cities around the world Tuesday in protesting to support opposition parties in the Democratic Republic of Congo and to demonstrate opposition to partial results in a Nov. 28 election that showed a lead for President Joseph Kabila.

Much safer to protest nowadays in a Western country - there are no Congolese military

Back in the day, burning tires and firing weapons into the air was merely the norm. Activists calling for "Ville Morte" (dead city) would gauge their effectiveness with the local population and the Embassies would generate their own version of "tense streets". Seems the internet has taken protesting to an all new level.

We used to wonder if Tshisekedi had won back in the 90s where would we all be today. For those that have not witnessed what the opposition is capable of - Tshisekedi's methods are not far from that of Kabila's. Some of us were also convinced that Tshisekedi's ballots were rigged.

[M-A Lagrange]

Cops arrest Congolese protesters
We used to wonder if Tshisekedi had won back in the 90s where would we all be today. For those that have not witnessed what the opposition is capable of - Tshisekedi's methods are not far from that of Kabila's. Some of us were also convinced that Tshisekedi's ballots were rigged.

Stan,

I agree on Tshisekedi, he is not better or worst than Kabila.

At this level what matters is not the results but the process and credibility of international community. The Financial Time has a very good article on this:

DRC opposition rejects Kabila re-election

“Peace will be precarious and the Congolese state will remain weak if
the young Congolese who courageously went to the polls find out that
bullets still matter more than ballots when it comes to power.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f9991da-2...44feabdc0.html

Those who believe now they have leverage on Kabila are just fooling themselves.

[M-A Lagrange]

Carter Center: DRC Presidential Election Results Lack Credibility

Carter Center observers reported that the quality and integrity of the vote tabulation process has varied across the country, ranging from the proper application of procedures to serious irregularities, including the loss of nearly 2,000 polling station results in Kinshasa. Based on the detailed results released by CENI, it is also evident that multiple locations, notably several Katanga province constituencies, reported impossibly high rates of 99 to 100 percent voter turnout with all, or nearly all, votes going to incumbent President Joseph Kabila. These and other observations point to mismanagement of the results process and compromise the integrity of the presidential election. Candidates and parties have a limited time to submit any complaints to the Supreme Court, and tabulation for the legislative elections is ongoing.

The problems observed in the tabulation and announced results are compounded by inadequate access for observers at multiple compilation centers around the country and no official access to the national results center in Kinshasa. The Carter Center is therefore unable to provide independent verification of the accuracy of the overall results or the degree to which they reflect the will of the Congolese people.

Challenges in the results process were further evident in the CENI delays in announcing the results first for two days after the original date of Dec. 6 and then a second one-day delay to Dec. 9. Presidential candidates and the Congolese people are to be commended for waiting peacefully for the announcement of results, and the Center encourages all actors to maintain the same level of responsibility. It is also the responsibility of Congolese political actors and institutions to conduct their own examination of the election results and identify political solutions. The Carter Center is ready to assist in these processes if requested and appropriate.

http://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/drc-121011.html

The next step: how to avoid thing to go out of control

[Stan]

Kabila Admits Mistakes but Rejects Vote Criticism

"But compared to the elections in 2006 these elections were better," he said.

Kabila said he rejected accusations from international monitors at the Carter Center that his victory in the November 28 vote lacked credibility.

"What horrible plague are you fleeing from ?"

"Democracy !"

DEMONcratic Republic of Congo

More at RNW...

[M-A Lagrange]

Congo President Kabila Denies Reports of Election Fraud

Seated at a desk under a spreading tree, looking relaxed and with the broad Congo River flowing behind him, Mr. Kabila insisted Monday that there was no crisis in the country. Speaking in excellent English in this French-speaking country — he was raised partly in Tanzania — Mr. Kabila was dismissive of the longtime opposition leader’s claims.
“I thought he was going to call me to congratulate me,” Mr. Kabila said, smiling. But he issued a veiled warning to Mr. Tshisekedi: “We’ll call on him to respect the laws of the land.”
Mr. Kabila also brushed aside questions about widely reported government corruption in Congo, saying it was a universal problem. “Corruption exists anywhere and everywhere in the world,” he said.
At the end, the president got up from the desk, smiled and, as the reporters were dismissed, said, “Well, they’ve wasted my time.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/wo...d.html?_r=2&hp

[davidbfpo]

A first-hand report on the Congolese protest in Whitehall, London last week:http://mitchell-images-blog.blogspot...s-country.html

The protesters believe that it is the western govt involvement in the country that has created what they see as a media blackout. They maintain that media exposure would highlight these dodgy goings on and lead to Kabila being deposed.....Firstly, Congolese protesters are quite unlike any I have encountered before.

[M-A Lagrange]

A Crisis in the Congo
Why is the West so willing to look the other way when it comes to the Democratic Republic of the Congo's clearly flawed election results?
These days, nowhere are crises more predictable than in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. And yet, when they unfold as anticipated, Western policymakers and diplomats always seem caught off guard -- raising questions about the competence, willingness, and commitment of the Kinshasa-based diplomatic corps and the United Nations mission to discharge their responsibilities.
For reasons that elude Congolese analysts, Western diplomats feel more comfortable with Kabila, whom they see as the defender of stability and peace in Congo. But over the last decade of Kabila leadership, little has changed for the average Congolese -- who is worse off than he or she was in the previous decade. With a chronically weak state, Congo has consistently performed poorly on human development rankings placing at the bottom of most indexes. These same diplomats view Tshisekedi as intransigent and difficult, and often dismiss him as irrational. In private, they point to his inflexible positions and the statements he made last month in South Africa (declaring himself president) as signs of an unsuitable personality for the nation's highest office. But many Congolese see him as the father of the modern democratic movement. His partisans revere him as a messiah -- in part, no doubt, because he is everything that Kabila is not: He has no money, no militia, and no state machinery behind him.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...congo?page=0,1

[Stan]

Hey M-A,
The truth is, there is no replacement for Kabila and the West doesn't want to try it again with Tshisekedi. We didn't want Etienne even in 1991 when he was still talking about democracy (coincidentally during social events and the US Embassy ).

The only way to bring back the original Congo is Belgian colonization and work for a living.