The myth of Russian humiliation

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---these are the actions of what "rational thinking" leaders who stated there must be negotiations--which were then Minsk 1 and 2.

I recall even you pushed the theory of negotiations did you not?

You got them but did the negotiations work? No ceasefire in the fighting---AND Russia never even attempted to implement anything in Minsk 1 and 2 --and the two agreements carried the Russian signatures.

#BREAKINREPORT
2800 Ukrainian troops and fighters remain POW and MIA in #Donbas.
Only 1300 were freed and exchanged since the #Minsk treaty.

By the way AP---this was a key element of Minsk 1 and was to be completed within 24 hours after signing Minsk 1.

#BREAKINGNEWS Ukrainian intelligence expects large scale Russian invasion army offensives around or after the Ukrainian elections. -

#BreakingReport Russian invasion forces - hundreds of Chechens and Cossacks with new Russian army equip - prepare offencive vs. Vuhlehirs'k.

Russia May Plan Provocation Passing Off Its Tanks for Ukrainian. PHOTOS
http://24today.net/open/183610
pic.twitter.com/5TSlH7vDzb

[OUTLAW 09]

Another great example of Russian "altered state of reality"

From Interfax today:

20:30 SERGEI IVANOV EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR PLANNED ELECTIONS IN DONETSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC, LUHANSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC

15:34 Lavrov: Implementation of Minsk on eastern Ukraine should grow into nationwide dialogue

DPR premier: Militia plans to seize Kramatorsk, Mariupol, Slovyansk

DONETSK. Oct 23 (Interfax) - Self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko has announced the militia's plans to regain control over a number of Donbas cities and warned that fierce hostilities may resume.

"Kramatorsk, Mariupol and Slovyansk will be ours. We intend to take them, to regain them. So, I do not rule out the possibility that there will be fierce hostilities again," Zakharchenko told reporters on Thursday.

[OUTLAW 09]

Simply amazing how well western media is so well informed on Ukrainian events--they still have not picked up on the German President of their CIA giving a false statement concerning the shot down of MH17 two days ago.

When Reuters says it has evidence of direct Russian military involvement in Ukraine, everyone jumps. Nevermind YOUR/OUR efforts over months!

Exclusive Reuters: Charred tanks T-72BMs in #Ukraine point to #Russia|n involvement.
http://reut.rs/12i9mN2 #Ukraina
pic.twitter.com/rFXrwgaJcH

[OUTLAW 09]

Self explanatory:

MFA Russia just tweet "Russia does not recognize the principles of Maidan democracy, spontaneous and uncontrollable mob-rule on the streets"

#OSCE reports they see active & constant movement over #Ukraine border in & out to #Russia by military people.
http://www.20khvylyn.com/news/war/news_11478.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

A Russian form of the "race to the bottom" meaning---do I Russia attempt a full takeover of "New Russia" before or after the Ukrainian elections on the 26th and do I do it before my own Rubel crashes to lows not seen since the brutal crash of 1998.

Ruble seems to be heading for 42/$ (now 41.91), even with no word yet on the supposed rating downgrade

"It's a devaluation. It doesn't matter now how many dlrs the central bank dumps on the mkt," trader tells @Vedomosti http://vedomosti.ru/~HjR

Assume at some point Russia will complain it is a western "humiliation" that is being forced upon them as Putin alluded to it in his Milan press conference---"the US and the KSA have a secret agreement to destroy the Russian economy".

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---you will notice that in this WSJ article the author is starting to use my concept of "an altered state of reality" that you so stridently oppose.

What he missed and I was surprised is a little more going into the constant Russian propaganda and info war statements that form many of the Russian FM and Putin statements.

The Russians have currently a problem with their own propaganda---they believe it and when you are in an "altered state of reality" it is difficult to recognize you need to urgently find the "exit ramp" before your own economy totally collapses as you are seeking a "military/geopolitical victory".

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russi...ies-1414099668

[OUTLAW 09]

Goes to the heart of the Washington Post "humiliation" article. Excert taken from the previously linked WSJ article.

Notice just how Russia starts their own internal "humiliation" myths and then direct them towards the West. That "drumbeat" is then passed via their social networks, and news media both inside Russia and world in general

The Russian conspiracy theory isn’t a new phenomenon. A senior Russian security official, Nikolai Patrushev, rehearsed a couple of historical theories in a recent interview with state media: that the U.S. lured the Soviet Union into its disastrous invasion of Afghanistan and that Washington manipulated the collapse in oil prices in the 1980s to destroy the Soviet Union. Likewise, the new sanctions against Russia are seen as a U.S. effort to bring about regime-change in Russia

Notice the authors use of the following sentence......rehearsed a couple of historical theories in a recent interview AND again from the Washington Post article the expansion of NATO to the Russian borders and western violations of "international law" are perfect examples of such "rehearsal of historical theories".

[AmericanPride]

See again AP--absolutely not reading the Washington Post story that triggered the "humiliation" questions leads to many of your comments or lack of answers to many of my questions placed to you.

See again AP--absolutely not reading the Washington Post story that triggered the "humiliation" questions leads to many of your comments or lack of answers to many of my questions placed to you.

Repeatedly trying to kill the messenger is humorous at best.

1. Putin wants the destruction of NATO thus no longer a perceived military threat to Russia
2. Putin wants the EU split from the US thus the total reduction of US influence in all of Europe
3. Putin wants the EU to be destroyed as an economic/legal power in Europe as he views western liberalism to be an evil thing for the Russian culture ie the EU general legal protection of homosexuals is a massive Russia dislike right now--down to refusing any mail coming into Russia from Finland if the stamp has a nude man on it

All of these are unverifiable assumptions. You use words like 'destruction', 'total reduction', 'destroyed', and 'evil thing' - common terms when viewing through an absolutist prism where things are either one way or not. But in reality, Russian foreign policy is far more nuanced and limited than global domination. More realistically, the current Russian leadership is probably primarialy concerned first with preserving Russia's perceived sphere of influence and second, with decentering international power from the U.S. and building a more multilateral system where Russia can exercise more influence.

You got them but did the negotiations work? No ceasefire in the fighting---AND Russia never even attempted to implement anything in Minsk 1 and 2 --and the two agreements carried the Russian signatures.

Nobody ever claimed that negotiations are either 100% effective or that they not long, drawn-out, dramatic affairs. Negotiations are a process, not an event, and they can at times be as unpredictable as conflict. But negotiations more often than conflict produce sustainable agreements afterwards - again, how many conflicts end with negotiations and how many end with capitulation? The difference between Georgia and Ukraine is that there are a far larger number of stakeholders in the negotiation, and the principal belligerents (Ukraine and Russia) do not have absolute control over them or even over the negotiation process. Minsk 1 and 2 provide the framework, and obviously more work needs to be done, but their partial implementation is not indicative of the sufficiency of negotiations. If that were the case, then every failed war would be an argument to abolish war...

Also note that the conditions on the ground appear to have less of an impact on negotiations' pace than 'external' conditions: economic situation in both Ukraine and Russia, war weariness among the public, and the approaching winter season.

Another great example of Russian "altered state of reality"

20:30 SERGEI IVANOV EXPRESSES SUPPORT FOR PLANNED ELECTIONS IN DONETSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC, LUHANSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC

It's been the position of Moscow since the start of the conflict that the eastern provinces should have more autonomy, so it is not surprising that they are angling to capitalize on the coming elections in that territory to push that agenda. What is surprising is that as a self-proclaimed expert you are so dismissive of clearly stated Russian policy positions while simultaneously embracing Russian propaganda at face value as demonstrations of an 'altered state of reality'.

[kaur]

AP,

the principal belligerents (Ukraine and Russia) do not have absolute control over them or even over the negotiation process.

I don't now much about Ukrainian side, but I dare to comment Russian side with couple exaples. Russians have withdrawn FSB guy Grikin, they have withdrawn Borodai. They support semi-openly Tsarev group in DNR. Pensions and public servants' wages will come through his connections from Russia. Russians could seal borders at will, they can send messages to hard core guys like Girkin, if this will not work they can force their will with snatch teams. Some levers that can be used. They don't use them, so they are interested in status quo?

About autonomy aspect in eastern regions. Those eastern regions, you are talking now don't correlate with this Putin's view. Was he just dreaming or plan didn't work out?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ut-in-ukraine/

One more point from Ivanov. Same wave lenght with Patrushev.

SOCHI, October 23. /TASS/. Personal attacks on Russian President Vladimir Putin are a continuation of information war unleashed against Russia, Chief of the presidential administration Sergey Ivanov said on Thursday.
“First, they attempted to use the non-system opposition as a battering ram for decreasing authority of the power but failed,” Ivanov said on the sidelines of the Valdai International Discussion Club underway in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi. “Long before Ukraine’s crisis we clearly felt that our domestic and foreign polices did not satisfy those across the Pond’.”

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/756160