The myth of Russian humiliation

[OUTLAW 09]

The Washington Post article concerning Russian humiliation and some commenters responses to it are interesting as it proves to a degree the effectiveness of the current Russian info war.

I will divert for a movement and take an interesting development of the last two days that has completely gone under the radar in Western media and has whipped up the blogging open source world and has raised some serious questions on why one should and or should not trust the comments made by Senior Intelligence Agency leaders ie the German Intelligence Agency BND--their CIA.

On Monday they released via Bild Newspaper and Der Spiegel an interview where they openly stated the MH17 was shot down by a Ukrainian captured BUK and the mercenaries fired it--the Russians jumped on it naturally since it relieved them of any responsibility and placed the blame on the Ukrainians for losing and or allowing their BUK to be captured.

Now the Russian info war goes full into gear with countless press releases harping the fact they were not responsible and asking the Germans to provide the "evidence" of their statement.

My question now is WHY did the German BND post their arguments and claim to have thorough evidence about the captured Ukrainian BUK--were they attempting to give Russia an exit ramp and was it approved by Merkel?

WHY do I ask the question---THE BUK that was being mentioned as captured has now been identified and geo located inside the Ukraine by open source searches and it is fully identified as being damaged as the Ukrainians have always claim thus unable to fire even a rubber band much less a SAM.

SO again just WHY did the German CIA Director risk his career over a BUK that has been proven incapable for firing a SAM thus destroying basically his whole press release?

AND who was and or is he supporting with that theory of a Ukrainian BUK being behind the shot down--WHEN via open source analysis the actual BUK launcher was clearly ID'd and geolocated the day of the shot down?

For a thorough open source analysis and geo locating of the Ukrainian BUK check the work done by ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

Perfect example of Russian info warfare but supported by the Germans---and for what reason?

AP--it goes to the heart of your humiliation comments.

Taken from ukraineatwar:

It is clear that the BUK has been disabled.

So this is the definite and ultimate proof that Ukraine was right when they said they disabled the BUKs that were at risk to be captured.

Conclusion: the (Russian proxy) 'separatists' NEVER captured any Ukrainian (functional or repairable) BUK.

This article is a following up of this one: Google Earth shows Russia used photos from 2010 to prove its proxies captured a BUK.

Also see: President of German Intelligence and media are (AGAIN) making false statements.

[Bob's World]

While human factors, such as "humiliation" will always play a part in human endeavors, we need to be careful to not overly focus on the factors that make the most sense, or that are the most soothing to our own perspective on an issue. Do Russians feel humiliation? probably some at some level, but equally they feel fear as we press NATO deeper and deeper into their vulnerable side.

This is best viewed in terms of geostrategy, spheres of influence and national interests. Russia has acted consistently over the centuries to attempt to shore up an extremely vulnerable western flank that has been attacked repeatedly by western European powers.

This does not make Russia "right" to act out to increase their security - but we can hardly objectively assess recent events if we assume that it is we that are "right" instead. Geography does not care about politics and power, but it certainly shapes how those things play out.

[AmericanPride]

Bob,

You bring up good points. I'd add that popular perceptions are important, even in quasi-dictatorships. A Levada Center poll recently stated that almost 80% of Russians view the West - particularly the U.S. and U.K - as enemies of Russia. Most recent research into the exercise of power evidences that even under conditions amounting to dictatorship, the complicitly of the population is essential to the functioning of the state. Also, regime type is important in affecting risk aversion in foreign policy, but at the same time, even the most stringent dictatorships are responsive to internal interests so the aggression of autocratic regimes is heavily qualified when compared to aggression by democratic regimes. How much of the narrative in Russia is directed by the Kremlin and how much of it is Kremlin opportunism playing on the ideological momentum of the population? Ultimately humiliation and fear are about perception of a state's status, and that is important in shaping how state's make decisions. Whatever the alarmists may state, Putin and his crew are, ultimately, human and subject to the same principles governing human behavior.

[OUTLAW 09]

Bob,

You bring up good points. I'd add that popular perceptions are important, even in quasi-dictatorships. A Levada Center poll recently stated that almost 80% of Russians view the West - particularly the U.S. and U.K - as enemies of Russia. Most recent research into the exercise of power evidences that even under conditions amounting to dictatorship, the complicitly of the population is essential to the functioning of the state. Also, regime type is important in affecting risk aversion in foreign policy, but at the same time, even the most stringent dictatorships are responsive to internal interests so the aggression of autocratic regimes is heavily qualified when compared to aggression by democratic regimes. How much of the narrative in Russia is directed by the Kremlin and how much of it is Kremlin opportunism playing on the ideological momentum of the population? Ultimately humiliation and fear are about perception of a state's status, and that is important in shaping how state's make decisions. Whatever the alarmists may state, Putin and his crew are, ultimately, human and subject to the same principles governing human behavior.

And again AP you simply do not get it based on this sentence you wrote:

Whatever the alarmists may state, Putin and his crew are, ultimately, human and subject to the same principles governing human behavior

Here is your core problem---ethno driven neo imperialism is all about emotions and driven by propaganda---also a trigger for human emotions otherwise propaganda will/would never work.

If Putin and his crew were in fact driven by human behavior then it would be far easier to determine just where he is headed---and right now his driving principles are not those of say European leaders or in fact the common man on the street in Paris. Why because we in the west took him at his word until the Crimea and failed to even take notice of the new Russian ethno defined and driven neo imperialism and the ever developing form of Russian "fascism".

The problem is that Putin as he has built his new ethno neo imperialism built it using the already existing Russian ultra nationalism ie fascism which appeals to a total different side of "human nature" being inherently racist in nature.

If as you write below you keep referring to "humiliation" and even Bob got into the same trend.

Just "how did Russia" get so paranoid since 1991--virtually all of Europe has effectively reduced their military since 1991 to virtually non existent, the US withdrew literally all of their ground combat power and reduced their air power to a minimum and that was for Iraq and AFG. So pray tell was the "threat" especially in light of the fact that NATO is a shadow of itself? AND Russia and Putin knows this simple fact.

SO again AP where was this supposedly Western threat to the security of Russia to come from?---what the German Army which has only currently in their inventory 221 tanks and 60 of them are in repair or say the Italian Army? or say the Estonian Army with a single active mechanized brigade and that is it say Holland?

Come on AP---just what was the "humiliation"---nothing more nothing less that an elegant info war myth to drive the west into believing the Russian claims that they had been the "victim" and were just "responding to protect their victimness".

And again I had asked you to reread recent Russian statements on the Ukraine since say September---have you seen written and or heard anywhere the Russian FM or Putin repeat the myths of "humiliation"---not a single word and or sentence has been lost on that "myth" and yet many in the west fell for it hook line and sinker---THAT was the reasoning behind the article actually. Why have they restrained themselves--because in fact the propaganda "myth" actually worked so therefore no further need to keep hammering the messaging that would be overkill and would have been seen as the propaganda it was.

This AP is what the European northern countries think right now about the Russian "humiliation" in light on this Russian leadership that is currently not reacting as normal sane thinking humans.

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/d...cs-278694.html

[OUTLAW 09]

AP--see this is how the myths of Russia work.

Yesterday and today in Europe---massive headlines about cluster munitions being used by the Ukrainian Army against Donetsk civilians by the Russian Chapter of the Human Rights Watch who O have a good repo with especially those that worked in Iraq and at Fort Irwin.

BUT again released by the Russian chapter of HRW not the international headquarters.

BUT spread all over the major newspapers and western media---with the voice of the Ukrainian government not being heard that no they have never used the munitions.

THEN this on the blogging side THAT has not hit the attention of the western media.

#OSCE denies #HRW information on use of #cluster munitions by #Ukrainian army

Representatives of international... http://fb.me/1nCYNhGWO

SO AP--who do you believe---the military and civilian monitors on the ground in the Donetsk and tasked to report neutrally on anything and everything or the MOSCO chapter of the HRW in a country that has somehow forgotten to have HRW registered as a NGO and the disbanding their own human rights group that has a massive worldwide reputation for doing great work?

THAT my friend is how "myths" become reality in the world of propaganda.

And AP another current Russian "myth" no Russian sub in Swedish waters.

Russian vessel "Professor Logachev" approaching Sweden equipped with 'hangar for midget submarines'.
http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/rysk...r-sig-sverige/

AND the ultimate Russian "myth" --Gazprom delivers value for money gas pricing and is a true EU competitive company and deals correctly with all of their contracts.

Interfax today:
13:20 ARBITRATION INSTITUTE OF STOCKHOLM CHAMBER OF COMMERCE ACCEPTS NAFTOGAZ SUIT ON INTERIM GAS PRICE - UKRAINIAN PM YATSENYUK

Note Russia is charging the Ukraine for undelivered gas volumes that in the contract is stated Ukraine must pay even if they do not take the gas.

[OUTLAW 09]

Again AP---here is the Russian FM "attempting" to redefine the "humiliation myth" in a totally new direction---this time "arguing" Russians actions in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine were based on "international laws"

Notice not a single mention of the Budapest Memorandum which had it's basis in international law.

Come on AP "just what existing international laws define Russians claims on Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

See AP just how propaganda created the "humiliation myth"?

RIA from today.

MOSCOW, October 22 (RIA Novosti) - The Ukrainian crisis is the direct result of the West's attempts to preserve lines of division in the Euro-Atlantic area, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday.

"The Ukrainian crisis is a direct consequence of the attempts of our Western colleagues again to preserve and move to the east the dividing lines in the Euro-Atlantic area," Lavrov said in a meeting with representatives of the Russian Youth Public Chamber.

According to the minister, Russia is not seeking confrontation with anyone else, but will defend its interests on the basis of international law.

"We will act as we think is right and fair on the basis of international law, which we respect," the minister added. "We believe that this is the best way to ensure the national interests of the Russian Federation," Lavrov stated.

In mid-April, Kiev launched a military operation against independence supporters in eastern Ukraine. The United States and the European Union have repeatedly accused Russia of meddling in Ukraine's internal affairs and escalating the crisis, but Moscow has repeatedly denied these allegations. In the meantime, Russia has repeatedly expressed concern over NATO's increasing military presence close to its borders.

[Bob's World]

International law is so diluted by US actions in recent years claiming exceptions in the name of interests claimed and defined by us, that one would have a hard time finding a fair and honest judge who would not at least believe the Russians make a similar case.

These laws are more contracts between sovereign parties than binding codes anyway - and when parties act unchecked outside the terms of a contract they change the terms of the contract iaw said conduct.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's use of the term international law is always interesting--on one side they claim "humiliation" then why the extensive use of "blocking international organizations" designed to observe and report on potential "violations" of international law?


U.S. Mission to OSCE ✔ @usosce

#Russia blocks expansion of #OSCE border observation mission - #OSCEPC can only approve 1 month extension -
READ: http://1.usa.gov/1ou7wCO