ANSF performance 2015 onwards

[davidbfpo]

A lurid headline in today's Daily Telegraph 'Taliban seize British stronghold in Helmand as security unravels', as:

A Western official said Lashkar Gah.. was now “under serious military pressure”....As many as 400 fighters are advancing on Chah-e Anjir only around 10 miles from Lashkar Gah.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-unravels.html

The headline ignores the fact the UK left Helmand Province a year ago, so it is no longer a British stronghold.

[davidbfpo]

A short ISW report (8 pgs), with a map of Taliban activity across much of Afghanistan and the link:http://understandingwar.org/backgrou...iban-and-isis?

[davidbfpo]

Once again lurid headlines on the contest for Helmand, this time over Sangin and the reported deployment of UK & US SOF, plus 300 NATO advisers (with no combat role):http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...g-Sangin.html?

Slightly more detail:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...pecial-forces?

Here is a key sentence:

About 65 per cent of the province is now under insurgent control, the head of Helmand's provincial council, Muhammad Kareem Atal, said.

[davidbfpo]

I have never been persuaded of such devices, but RAND does keep on producing:http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1273.html

The two key points for me:

Two factors remained absent in Afghanistan in 2015 but essential to success in historical COIN campaigns: disrupting flows of tangible support to the insurgents and a demonstration (and improvement) of commitment and motivation on the part of the Afghan National Security Forces, the primary COIN force since the coalition drawdown.

Three of the recommendations are laughable and have probably been said so many times before.

Would RAND or another other contractor "think tank" say "Enough, we've been there long enough, time to go"?

[davidbfpo]

Some classic Afghan quotes on this decision

The commander of the Afghan army's 215th corps, Mohammad Moeen Faqir:

Their presence in the area did not mean anything...We will use them in battle with enemies in other parts of Helmand province

Citing Abdul Jabar Qahraman, presidential envoy for security affairs in Helmand

There wasn't any deal....We learnt that there was no need to continue the fight in that area.

Link:http://news.yahoo.com/afghan-troops-...72916177.html?

[davidbfpo]

A short BBC report from Helmand Province:

It's almost two years since British Forces pulled out of Helmand. I watched them leave. At the time we were told by both politicians and senior military officers that the Afghans were ready to take care of their own security. Hindsight proves they were wrong
(Concludes) Helmand shows that, without international support, it can unravel as fast as lightning

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36941267

[davidbfpo]

A WaPo article, by a former Marine, from Helmand; it is hardly encouraging on the ANSF, which need Allied help (mainly US and some Germans):https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...lent-province/