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Thread: Iraq 2015: nowt is simple in this conflict

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  1. #1
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    Forget about "Clone Wars".
    Here comes "Drone Wars".
    #Iranian vs. #US UAV.

    UAV air encounter somewhere over Iraq and or Syria

    pic.twitter.com/Ads964kyKb

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    Lebanon's Hezbollah officially recognized its presence in Iraq. Moved into Iraq right after fall of Mosul in June. A Hezbollah commander was killed there. Playing same role it did in Iraq during US occupation and currently in Syria by providing support to Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Iraqi militias. Read more here.

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    "Iran now controls four Arab capitals — Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sana’a"
    http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columni...emen-1.1462687

    What is interesting is that now the from Khomeini called for "Green Crescent" is now formally taking shape and yet the US seems to think that an agreement with Iran will throttle back their regional hegemon aspirations.

    In fact if one goes back to 1979 --Khomeini actually unleashed a Shia Revolutionary Movement into the global Islamic community stretching from AFG to Lebanon.

    There has been some indicators that in fact the IRG general Suleiman was recently in Sana'a coordinating with the Shia group there.

    Then after his reported being in Sana'a--Shia took over the US SF base in Yemen in the last few days.

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    Sometimes it is important to go back and reread a number of Khomeini's writings in order to under the Revolutionary aspect of global Shiasm and the "Green Crescent".

    Kashf al-Asrar (‘Uncovering of secrets’, Khomeini’s first book, published in 1942:
    Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males, provided they are not disabled and incapacitated, to prepare themselves for the conquest of [other] countries so that the writ of Islam is obeyed in every country in the world.”

    “But those who study Islamic Holy War will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world … Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those [who say this] are witless.”

    “Islam says: kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all! Does this mean that Muslims should sit back until they are devoured by [the unbelievers]?”

    “Islam say: Kill them [the non-Muslims], put them to the sword and scatter [their armies]. Does this mean sitting back until [non-Muslims] overcome us?”

    “Islam says: kill in the service of Allah those who may want to kill you! Does this mean that we should surrender to the enemy?”

    “Islam says: Whatever good there is exists thanks to the sword and in the shadow of the sword! People cannot be made obedient except with the sword! The sword is the key to Paradise, which can be opened only for Holy Warriors!”

    “There are hundreds of other ayat [Qur’anic verses] and ahadith urging Muslims to value war and to fight. Does all that mean that Islam is a religion that prevents men from waging war? I spit upon those foolish souls who make such a claim.”

    About the government of the Shah’s father, Reza Shah — “idiotic and treacherous … poisonous … heinous… a gang to plunder the country,” which allowed “women’s going naked in the streets” (a reference to the Shah’s father’s banning of the traditional hijab covering of women’s faces, not actual nudity) and the practice of “lechery, treachery, music, dancing, and a thousand other varieties of corruption.”

    Hokumat-e Islami: Velayat-e Faqih (Islamic Government: Authority of the Jurist) (Khomeini’s best known and most important book, derived from 17 lectures delivered in the main bazaar mosque of Najaf (Iraq) when in exile; it argued that government should be run in accordance with traditional Islamic Shari’ah law and a Faqih (i.e. ayatollah, Islamic cleric) must be in charge). “The Khomeinism Handbook” and bases for the Islamic Republic of Iran after the overthrow of the Shah regime in 1979.

    “In order to assure the unity of the Islamic umma, in order to liberate the Islamic homeland from occupation and penetration by the imperialists and their puppet governments, it is imperative that we establish a government. … we must overthrow the oppressive governments installed by the imperialists and bring into existence an Islamic government of justice …”

    “Islam proclaims monarchy and hereditary succession wrong and invalid. When Islam first appeared in Iran, the Byzantine Empire, Egypt, and the Yemen, the entire institution of monarchy was abolished.”

    “In contrast … the body of Islamic laws that exist in the Qur’an and the Sunna has been accepted by the Muslims and recognized by them as worthy of obedience....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-26-2015 at 12:46 PM. Reason: use quote

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    .@statedeptspox says US has "no information at this time to support" #Iran opposition group's report yesterday of a secret #nuclear program

    This response is based on the recent story that was "leaked" about a possible secret Iranian ongoing nuclear program.

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    Prudent individuals.
    With the help of coalition airstrikes, Kurdish forces have reclaimed most of the area they lost to IS in August 2014, driving the militants out of 15,000 square km (9,300 square miles) they consider historically their own. But the peshmerga forces have neither the will nor the means to advance much further into Sunni Arab areas.
    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...#ixzz3Srd4wqY2
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

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    Moqtada al-Sadr recently withdrew his militias from the frontline after prominent Sunni sheikh from Babil was killed. Sunni parties boycotted govt afterward. Sadr wanted to show support for parties while telling them not to pull out of the govt. Same time attacked other militias as trying to undermine the govt, which was a swipe at his rivals such as Asaib Ahl Al-Haq. Shows Sadr's nationalist politicking but also the divisions within the militia forces. Read more here.

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    Just released my security report for Iraq in Feb 2015. Despite continued large scale IS operations violence went down in Feb. For a short period looked like IS was picking up its attacks as they rose in Dec & Jan for a new year offensive but that proved temporary. Overall attacks and casualties have both been going down slowly but surely since the summer. Read more here.

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    Just published article on alleged death of IS #2 leader Abu Muslim Turkmani is in charge of IS ops in Iraq. Was said to have been killed by Coalition air strike in Anbar on Feb 26. Problem is he was said to have been killed in Dec by another missile hit as well. Also no martyr posts by IS. Makes it impossible to determine his fate. Read more here.

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    Human Rights Watch found evidence that Kurdish forces have been limiting freedom of movement for Arabs, destroying their homes, and carrying out warrantless arrests in Ninewa. Major motivation seems to be revenge against people they see as supporters of the Islamic State. Also changing demographics helps with Kurds' plans to annex the disputed territories. Read more here.

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    A Iraqi SWAT HQ in Ramadi before and after an IS attack. pic.twitter.com/gqIsnpxoVu

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    ...and IRGC's (not Iranian Army's) T-72s in Iraq, here.

    BTW, except for deploying at least one of its armoured battalions to Iraq, the IRGC recently donated - on direct order from Khamenei - 10 ex-Iraqi Su-22s to Syria too. These were partially overhauled in Iran, partially in Syria, and are now flown by SyAAF.

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    New article today about how the militias/Hashd al-Shaabi might be a political threat to the established Shiite parties in Iraq. All are based upon political Islam and many of the militias if they haven't already will want to capitalize upon their fighting in the war which will probably lead to politics to get a piece of the oil pie. That will cut into the base of parties like the Sadrists and Supreme Council who have begun verbally criticizing and attacking the Hashd for their excesses trying to make them look illegitimate. Here's a link.

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    "All we have to rely on is our eyes." Bomb-disposal specialists are dying often in Iraq as ISIS deploys 1000s of IEDs http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/t...raq#.jnpAPOb5Z

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    This is 'in response' to WP's complaints about a loss of US-supplied arms and equipment worth about US$400 Million (+) in Yemen 'to Iranians' (see my post in Yemen thread)...

    Since most of that is going to be taken up by Houthis, not by 'Iranians', IMHO, that's of lesser concern in comparison with fact that IRGC-QF is meanwhile playing with Iraqi M1 Abrams' (see photo below)...

    Perhaps Obama could make it official that arms sales to Iran have been re-launched?
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    New article today about how the militias/Hashd al-Shaabi might be a political threat to the established Shiite parties in Iraq.
    Joel,
    when researching about topics of this kind, please try to find out what's the stand of each of these parties' towards Tehran, especially what kind of contacts they have to the Khamenei clique (for example: via Soleimani-Vahid axis or in some other fashion).

    IMHO, such links are likely to prove decisive for their future positions and strength too.

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    Default Iran is the Greatest Threat to Iraq

    One view, one I happen to agree with.

    Iran-backed Shi'ite militia pose biggest threat to Iraq not Isis, warns ex-CIA boss

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-backed...a-boss-1492988

    The biggest threat to Iraq's long-term stability does not come from Islamic State (Isis), but from Iran-backed Shi'ite militias fighting the Sunni extremists, former US general and CIA boss David Patraeus said this week.

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    Just published an analysis of recent car bomb trends. Dec 2014 saw fewest car bombs since 2012. Since then IS has increased number and days used each month pointing to a new campaign. Looked like IS's car bomb factories and networks had been disrupted for a short bit, but have now recovered. IS also increasingly using them not against civilians as normal but now mostly military targets in tactical attacks. Read more here.

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