Iran is the Greatest Threat to Iraq
One view, one I happen to agree with.
Iran-backed Shi'ite militia pose biggest threat to Iraq not Isis, warns ex-CIA boss
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/iran-backed...a-boss-1492988
The biggest threat to Iraq's long-term stability does not come from Islamic State (Isis), but from Iran-backed Shi'ite militias fighting the Sunni extremists, former US general and CIA boss David Patraeus said this week.
On the lighter side
Life in Baghdad: Joy Amid the Chaos of War | FRONTLINE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftPH...d=2489&elqat=1
A rare and surprising look at the everyday lives of ordinary young Iraqis. Against the backdrop of war, life goes on. Families are still attending carnivals and…
Please check out my latest interview. I talked with Col. Joel Rayburn the author of Iraq After America, which was one of the best books on Iraq published last year, about Iraq's political parties and insurgency. Here's a link.
Joel - thank you for that very interesting interview.
The PMU groups look strong now, just as ISIS once did, but the question remains as to how militarily effective they can be and if they have the sort of funding and structure from Iran or the Iraqi government to actually entrench themselves over primarily Sunni or mixed areas in northern Iraq and Anbar.
Tikrit will eventually fall, but can this ragbag of organizations actually take and hold ground over time, especially in Sunni areas, without conducting a widespread ethnic cleansing campaign? And even if such a campaign could actually take place, what Shia settlers will venture from the south voluntarily to hold disputed ground?
Iran's help has helped Assad hold on in Syria, but they haven't been enough to hold the regime army together or prevent the widespread militia-zation of Assad forces. As we see in Syria, these militias do not have the 3Ci or logistical capabilities to undertake a decisive offensive onto unfamiliar ground. I doubt that this exists in Iraq either.
Just published my security report for the 3rd week of March in Iraq. Casualties were down from previous week. IS & government forces both were on the offensive in Anbar but fighting there is stalemated. Kurds are in the middle of a major operation to clear southern Tikrit. Salahaddin offensive stalled with divisions between Iran, Hashd, ISF & Baghdad. Read more here.
In response to 'Tequila's' question above...
You can expect the IRGC-QF-run PMUs to become a sort of 'Iraqi IRGC'.
To ascertain the 'effect' of creation of such groups, Khamenei & Co (via Soleimani) are going to distribute them at different - and multiple - levels of society. That way not only that every gang in charge of specific group is going to get its 'piece of cake', but the IRGC is going to be capable of establishing itself in control over all aspects of Iraqi society (from the political, via military, down to the economy).
With other words: they'll do the same like they do at home.
As can be seen on examples of Iran (2009) in Syria (since 2011), such systems are proven as extremely hard to topple.
Regarding 'funding': presently, a mix of 'few bucks' and religious zeal make such enterprises a very economic. And in long term: hand at heart, with Iraqi oil de-facto under their control, and Chinese banks in their backs (keep in mind that Chinese are meanwhile biggest investors in Iraq)... what can go wrong for Iranians?
They've found enough of them to settle in various parts of Baghdad, already. I doubt this is any kind of significant problem.And even if such a campaign could actually take place, what Shia settlers will venture from the south voluntarily to hold disputed ground?
That's an issue of priorities and time.Iran's help has helped Assad hold on in Syria, but they haven't been enough to hold the regime army together or prevent the widespread militia-zation of Assad forces. As we see in Syria, these militias do not have the 3Ci or logistical capabilities to undertake a decisive offensive onto unfamiliar ground. I doubt that this exists in Iraq either.
Priorities: as long as the situation in Syria was near-hopeless, it was top priority and the IRGC-QF was 'pumping' everything there, including own troops, Iraqi Shi'a groups, Lebanese Hezbollah, Palestinians, Arab Nationalists etc., etc., etc. They reorganized the SyAA into the NDF, they reorganized security apparatus and re-trained the air force too...
Once the Daesh 'exploded' over half the Iraq, Iraq received priority. Battle-hardened IRGC's own forces, Iraqi Shi'a etc. were re-deployed to Iraq and replaced by the Afghan Hazara units plus Lebanese Hezbollah. Presently, Iraq has top priority on IRGC-QF's 'to do' list and that's going to remain for a while longer.
Even so, the IRGC-QF is still pumping enough effort (money and forces) into Syria to keep the situation balanced. Indeed, the time is now on its side: it has already established itself in control over regime's military and security apparatus there, developed the Syrian Hezbollah (said to be quantitativelly already bigger than its Lebanese original), etc., etc., etc. It's presence is sufficient to keep the insurgents and the Daesh busy, and the regime afloat.
Plus, while Iraq received priority because the Daesh began approaching the Iranian border, this means not that it's going to remain that way 'forever'. It might easily take 'years', but have no doubts: for the IRGC-QF, there is no such thing like 'border between Iraq and Syria' already since long.
A sarcast like me cannot but observe that the situation in Iraq is 'getting better and better'...
Now the US begins Tikrit surveillance flights - which means that, whether Washington wants to do so or not, it's going to support the IRGC-QF:
Where's the point? Soleimani is NOT playing some 'advisor' and 'helping coordinate tha assault': he's IN CHARGE of this operation....The US-led coalition against Islamic State has begun surveillance flights over the Iraqi city of Tikrit, which is being besieged by government forces.
Coalition officials said the support was requested by the authorities in Baghdad. They would not say whether air strikes would also be carried out.
Until now, the US had no involvement in the Iranian-backed operation in Tikrit.
But a Pentagon spokesman said the assault had "stalled", with IS militants in the city centre "dug in".
This is the first attempt to push out IS from a major urban centre in Iraq and is seen as a test for an operation to retake the country's second largest city, Mosul, which along with Tikrit was seized last June.
...
Iranian military advisers - led by Gen Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force - helped co-ordinate the assault.
...
Perhaps Obama could deliver F-16s ordered (and paid for) by Iraq straight to Iran? After all, Iran was one of first export customers for the type: indeed, the first 50 F-16A/Bs delivered to Israel were originally built for Iran...
A short detailed look at the role of the fraction-ridden Kurds, in both Iraq
and Syria; in particular what happened @ Mt. Sinjar and Kobane:http://defenceindepth.co/2015/03/25/...islamic-state/
The author Rob Thornton, who has spent time teaching in Iraqi Kurdistan, ends with a warning:Without a common ‘Kurdish’ purpose they are just as likely to fight each other as they are to fight ISIL.
davidbfpo
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