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Thread: Iraq 2015: nowt is simple in this conflict

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  1. #1
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    Iraqi official continue to under report casualties. Since the summer offensive both Baghdad and Irbil have only given partial numbers for members of the security forces lost in the fighting. Recently the Peshmerga Ministry released some numbers but they are below figures reported in the press. Read more here.

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    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
    Uh huh. Iraqi commander denies paramilitary groups involved in killings http://ara.tv/w2e9w via @AlArabiya_Eng

    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
    There is more to come on the US' blind eye to Special Groups in Iraq...

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    Just released new security report for 1st wk of Feb. After attacks were going up from Dec to Jan they saw a drop in Feb. Were now big offensive moves by IS during the week. Read all the details and see charts on violence in Iraq here.

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    Iranian Revolutionary Guard suffered its 7th acknowledged loss in Iraq in Feb. A general who was an intelligence chief was killed fighting IS. Read the details here.

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    My latest article is about Yazidis and Turkish PKK forces retaliating against four Arab villages in Ninewa's Sinjar. The Yazidi community was singled out for destruction by IS and now some have decided to take their revenge on locals they claim supported the insurgents. More evidence of Iraqi society coming apart. Read more here.

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    Joel,

    As a SME can I pose a question please.

    Assuming for now Daesh (ISIS) remain in occupation of the territories in Iraq they hold now, how will the Kurds defend their long border?

    I recall from some early newsreel the Kurds were manning a defence line in the plains. My geographical knowledge of the Kurdish region is limited.
    davidbfpo

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    Default Staying together or apart: Iraq's three main communities

    An optimistic analysis of how Iraqi politics have changed and what is likely after Daesh (ISIS) is defeated via WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/ira.../?singlepage=1

    Sunnis will be economically, geographically, and politically disempowered for a generation.

    In short, the Kurds find themselves stuck with Iraq...
    The Shia no easy quote! There is this difficulty though, as we know rumour can replace reality and we have seen similar legends in Afghanistan:
    ...it is commonly believed in southern Iraq that the United States not only refused to help Iraq against ISIL, but is in fact ISIL’s patron and sponsor. This belief is largely a product of conspiracy and paranoia, but does have a strong element of believability at its core from an Iraqi Shi’a perspective. When pressed on this belief, pushing aside rumors of direct aid by the United States, southern Shi’a ask how can the United States permit its allies — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are usually named — to provide aid and comfort to ISIL as they do? Their explanation is that these states are the middle-men, or proxies, used by the United States to empower ISIL for its own purposes.
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Joel,

    As a SME can I pose a question please.

    Assuming for now Daesh (ISIS) remain in occupation of the territories in Iraq they hold now, how will the Kurds defend their long border?

    I recall from some early newsreel the Kurds were manning a defence line in the plains. My geographical knowledge of the Kurdish region is limited.
    The Kurds have a smaller front to cover then the ISF and according to Michael Knights actually have more forces at hand than the ISF as well. They made some offensive operations in Ninewa a while ago, but since then have basically been holding a defense position quite successfully.

    Long term however their border with IS and their occupation of the disputed territories will mean they will face a constant terrorist threat that they didn't really have to deal with before.

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    Just released my weekly security report. 3rd k of Feb saw a large increase in deaths due to mass executions by IS in Anbar. Executed a few hundred people after it took parts of Baghdadi in Anbar as long as burning around 100 in two other cities. Read more here.

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    Forget about "Clone Wars".
    Here comes "Drone Wars".
    #Iranian vs. #US UAV.

    UAV air encounter somewhere over Iraq and or Syria

    pic.twitter.com/Ads964kyKb

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    Lebanon's Hezbollah officially recognized its presence in Iraq. Moved into Iraq right after fall of Mosul in June. A Hezbollah commander was killed there. Playing same role it did in Iraq during US occupation and currently in Syria by providing support to Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Iraqi militias. Read more here.

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    "Iran now controls four Arab capitals — Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sana’a"
    http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columni...emen-1.1462687

    What is interesting is that now the from Khomeini called for "Green Crescent" is now formally taking shape and yet the US seems to think that an agreement with Iran will throttle back their regional hegemon aspirations.

    In fact if one goes back to 1979 --Khomeini actually unleashed a Shia Revolutionary Movement into the global Islamic community stretching from AFG to Lebanon.

    There has been some indicators that in fact the IRG general Suleiman was recently in Sana'a coordinating with the Shia group there.

    Then after his reported being in Sana'a--Shia took over the US SF base in Yemen in the last few days.

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