Iranian Revolutionary Guard suffered its 7th acknowledged loss in Iraq in Feb. A general who was an intelligence chief was killed fighting IS. Read the details here.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard suffered its 7th acknowledged loss in Iraq in Feb. A general who was an intelligence chief was killed fighting IS. Read the details here.
My latest article is about Yazidis and Turkish PKK forces retaliating against four Arab villages in Ninewa's Sinjar. The Yazidi community was singled out for destruction by IS and now some have decided to take their revenge on locals they claim supported the insurgents. More evidence of Iraqi society coming apart. Read more here.
Joel,
As a SME can I pose a question please.
Assuming for now Daesh (ISIS) remain in occupation of the territories in Iraq they hold now, how will the Kurds defend their long border?
I recall from some early newsreel the Kurds were manning a defence line in the plains. My geographical knowledge of the Kurdish region is limited.
davidbfpo
Staying together or apart: Iraq's three main communities
An optimistic analysis of how Iraqi politics have changed and what is likely after Daesh (ISIS) is defeated via WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2015/02/ira.../?singlepage=1
The Shia no easy quote! There is this difficulty though, as we know rumour can replace reality and we have seen similar legends in Afghanistan:Sunnis will be economically, geographically, and politically disempowered for a generation.
In short, the Kurds find themselves stuck with Iraq......it is commonly believed in southern Iraq that the United States not only refused to help Iraq against ISIL, but is in fact ISIL’s patron and sponsor. This belief is largely a product of conspiracy and paranoia, but does have a strong element of believability at its core from an Iraqi Shi’a perspective. When pressed on this belief, pushing aside rumors of direct aid by the United States, southern Shi’a ask how can the United States permit its allies — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are usually named — to provide aid and comfort to ISIL as they do? Their explanation is that these states are the middle-men, or proxies, used by the United States to empower ISIL for its own purposes.
davidbfpo
I'd hesitate to call Ollivant's analysis "optimistic". He foresees utter Sunni defeat and disenfranchisement, and decades of terrorist attacks to come from that.
The only problem with this excellent analysis is that it really doesn't take into account ISIS' "strategic depth" in Syria, and the lack of a ground force that can destroy ISIS in that area. ISIS may lose northern and western Iraq eventually, but one cannot imagine the war ending without a similar endgame in Syria.
The Kurds have a smaller front to cover then the ISF and according to Michael Knights actually have more forces at hand than the ISF as well. They made some offensive operations in Ninewa a while ago, but since then have basically been holding a defense position quite successfully.Originally Posted by davidbfpo
Long term however their border with IS and their occupation of the disputed territories will mean they will face a constant terrorist threat that they didn't really have to deal with before.
My newest article covers Washington's announcement of an invasion plan to retake Mosul. Rather than laying out the actual timetable for the operation to me it appeared to be more of a political move to placate Iraq's politicians who are pushing for immediate action against IS this year regardless of the military situation. All the indicators that Mosul will still be a long ways off. Read more here.
Just released my weekly security report. 3rd k of Feb saw a large increase in deaths due to mass executions by IS in Anbar. Executed a few hundred people after it took parts of Baghdadi in Anbar as long as burning around 100 in two other cities. Read more here.
Forget about "Clone Wars".
Here comes "Drone Wars".
#Iranian vs. #US UAV.
UAV air encounter somewhere over Iraq and or Syria
pic.twitter.com/Ads964kyKb
Lebanon's Hezbollah officially recognized its presence in Iraq. Moved into Iraq right after fall of Mosul in June. A Hezbollah commander was killed there. Playing same role it did in Iraq during US occupation and currently in Syria by providing support to Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Iraqi militias. Read more here.
"Iran now controls four Arab capitals — Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sana’a"
http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columni...emen-1.1462687 …
What is interesting is that now the from Khomeini called for "Green Crescent" is now formally taking shape and yet the US seems to think that an agreement with Iran will throttle back their regional hegemon aspirations.
In fact if one goes back to 1979 --Khomeini actually unleashed a Shia Revolutionary Movement into the global Islamic community stretching from AFG to Lebanon.
There has been some indicators that in fact the IRG general Suleiman was recently in Sana'a coordinating with the Shia group there.
Then after his reported being in Sana'a--Shia took over the US SF base in Yemen in the last few days.
Sometimes it is important to go back and reread a number of Khomeini's writings in order to under the Revolutionary aspect of global Shiasm and the "Green Crescent".
Kashf al-Asrar (‘Uncovering of secrets’, Khomeini’s first book, published in 1942:Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males, provided they are not disabled and incapacitated, to prepare themselves for the conquest of [other] countries so that the writ of Islam is obeyed in every country in the world.”
“But those who study Islamic Holy War will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world … Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those [who say this] are witless.”
“Islam says: kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all! Does this mean that Muslims should sit back until they are devoured by [the unbelievers]?”
“Islam say: Kill them [the non-Muslims], put them to the sword and scatter [their armies]. Does this mean sitting back until [non-Muslims] overcome us?”
“Islam says: kill in the service of Allah those who may want to kill you! Does this mean that we should surrender to the enemy?”
“Islam says: Whatever good there is exists thanks to the sword and in the shadow of the sword! People cannot be made obedient except with the sword! The sword is the key to Paradise, which can be opened only for Holy Warriors!”
“There are hundreds of other ayat [Qur’anic verses] and ahadith urging Muslims to value war and to fight. Does all that mean that Islam is a religion that prevents men from waging war? I spit upon those foolish souls who make such a claim.”
About the government of the Shah’s father, Reza Shah — “idiotic and treacherous … poisonous … heinous… a gang to plunder the country,” which allowed “women’s going naked in the streets” (a reference to the Shah’s father’s banning of the traditional hijab covering of women’s faces, not actual nudity) and the practice of “lechery, treachery, music, dancing, and a thousand other varieties of corruption.”
Hokumat-e Islami: Velayat-e Faqih (Islamic Government: Authority of the Jurist) (Khomeini’s best known and most important book, derived from 17 lectures delivered in the main bazaar mosque of Najaf (Iraq) when in exile; it argued that government should be run in accordance with traditional Islamic Shari’ah law and a Faqih (i.e. ayatollah, Islamic cleric) must be in charge). “The Khomeinism Handbook” and bases for the Islamic Republic of Iran after the overthrow of the Shah regime in 1979.
“In order to assure the unity of the Islamic umma, in order to liberate the Islamic homeland from occupation and penetration by the imperialists and their puppet governments, it is imperative that we establish a government. … we must overthrow the oppressive governments installed by the imperialists and bring into existence an Islamic government of justice …”
“Islam proclaims monarchy and hereditary succession wrong and invalid. When Islam first appeared in Iran, the Byzantine Empire, Egypt, and the Yemen, the entire institution of monarchy was abolished.”
“In contrast … the body of Islamic laws that exist in the Qur’an and the Sunna has been accepted by the Muslims and recognized by them as worthy of obedience....
Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-26-2015 at 12:46 PM. Reason: use quote
.@statedeptspox says US has "no information at this time to support" #Iran opposition group's report yesterday of a secret #nuclear program
This response is based on the recent story that was "leaked" about a possible secret Iranian ongoing nuclear program.
Prudent individuals.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...#ixzz3Srd4wqY2With the help of coalition airstrikes, Kurdish forces have reclaimed most of the area they lost to IS in August 2014, driving the militants out of 15,000 square km (9,300 square miles) they consider historically their own. But the peshmerga forces have neither the will nor the means to advance much further into Sunni Arab areas.
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg
Just released my security report for Iraq in Feb 2015. Despite continued large scale IS operations violence went down in Feb. For a short period looked like IS was picking up its attacks as they rose in Dec & Jan for a new year offensive but that proved temporary. Overall attacks and casualties have both been going down slowly but surely since the summer. Read more here.
Just published article on alleged death of IS #2 leader Abu Muslim Turkmani is in charge of IS ops in Iraq. Was said to have been killed by Coalition air strike in Anbar on Feb 26. Problem is he was said to have been killed in Dec by another missile hit as well. Also no martyr posts by IS. Makes it impossible to determine his fate. Read more here.
Human Rights Watch found evidence that Kurdish forces have been limiting freedom of movement for Arabs, destroying their homes, and carrying out warrantless arrests in Ninewa. Major motivation seems to be revenge against people they see as supporters of the Islamic State. Also changing demographics helps with Kurds' plans to annex the disputed territories. Read more here.
New article today about how the militias/Hashd al-Shaabi might be a political threat to the established Shiite parties in Iraq. All are based upon political Islam and many of the militias if they haven't already will want to capitalize upon their fighting in the war which will probably lead to politics to get a piece of the oil pie. That will cut into the base of parties like the Sadrists and Supreme Council who have begun verbally criticizing and attacking the Hashd for their excesses trying to make them look illegitimate. Here's a link.
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