Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 216

Thread: Iraq 2015: nowt is simple in this conflict

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,366

    Default Iraq 2015: nowt is simple in this conflict

    A new thread for Iraq in 2015 and obviously due to the overlap with the Syrian civil war should be read alongside the 2015 Syrian thread.

    The title IMHO reflects how complicated the Iraqi civil war / insurgency is, notably the strange alliance supporting the Iraqi state and the semi-independent role of the Kurds.

    A separate thread remains on ISIS, where commentaries on the group are best placed:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21084
    davidbfpo

  2. #2
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    I just interviewed Al Rai's Elijah Magnier about the Moqtada al-Sadr-Qais Khazali split. Unlike conventional wisdom that said the two split in 2006 and Khazali went on to create Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH), Magnier said that AAH was actually a front group created by Sadr and Iran to carry out deniable attacks for the Sadr trend. Sadr and Khazali didn't split until much later thanks to the work of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force commander Gen. Qasim Suleimani. Please read more here.

    Took me a whole week but I finally compiled all of the security statistics for 2014 in Iraq. Counted 10,209 attacks, 24,725 killed, 37,970 wounded. Complete statistics, and charts breaking down those numbers can be found here.

    Did a year end review of Iraq stories for 2014. Is no way comprehensive list, but some of the major events month by month that I wrote about for my blog Musings On Iraq. Here's a link.

    Just published my weekly security report for Jan1-7, 2015 in Iraq. Attacks have been going up over last several weeks, but casualties remained stable. Read more here.

    Another Iranian was reported killed in Iraq Jan 10. Was a commander in the Basij militia likely working with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. This is the sixth Iranian that has officially been announced as dying in Iraq since the fall of Mosul in June. Read more here.
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 01-16-2015 at 02:14 PM.

  3. #3
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,366

    Default The Impact of Crude’s Collapse on the Islamic State

    Money matters and in this very short CTC piece all is explained, although to date action by the coalition appears to have littel impact - leave it to the market! http://combatingterrorismcenter.cmai...9AA49ED5AF8B9E
    davidbfpo

  4. #4
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    There's been a dramatic drop in car bombs in Iraq since Dec. Went form 59 in Nov to 21 in Dec. Low numbers continued into Jan. Analysis of some reasons why this has occurred here.

    After 13 tries Jurf al-Sakhr in northeastern Babil a long time IS base was finally cleared in Oct. Security in Babil and southern Iraq has dramatically improved since then. There have been no car bombings in the south for example as Jurf was IS's main VBIED base in the south. On the other hand the entire population of the area has been forced out and are in refugee camps as militias and local govt wont allow them back in because theyr'e considered IS supporters. Read more here.
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 01-16-2015 at 02:15 PM.

  5. #5
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Just released my weekly security report for Iraq for 2nd week of January 2015. Attacks have gone up in Iraq since December. There was a big jump in casualties as well, but that was because a mass grave was found outside of Mosul with victims of IS. There is a continued stalemate in Anbar, mass graves were found in Diyala, an uptick in insurgent activity in Kirkuk, IS went on the offensive in Ninewa, while the ISF and militias are trying ton consolidate their recent wins in southern Salahaddin. For more read here.

  6. #6
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Wrote an in depth history of the Badr Organization from its origins with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard during the Iran-Iraq War to its attempt to co-opt the 1991 uprising to the 2003 invasion when it attempted to take power in Diyala and Wasit to taking over the Interior Ministry, assassinations of Baathits, its war with the Sadrists up to the current period where it sent fighters to Syria and is now in the forefront of the war against the Iraqi insurgency. Read more here.

  7. #7
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Premier Abadi suggested creating a National Guard as a way to protect the provinces and decentralize power when he came into office in Sep. Legislation to create the Guard is deadlocked in parliament, but some provinces are moving ahead with the idea anyway. Read more here.

  8. #8
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    When open fighting broke out in Iraq at start of 2014 and militias were deployed many feared that there would be a huge jump in extrajudicial killings with bodies dumped in Baghdad. There was a huge surge in those types of incidents during the summer, but they have since gone down as fears that the capital would be taken receded. Read the whole article here.

  9. #9
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Just published my weekly security report for Iraq. Attacks are going back up after a dip in the last quarter of 2014. Pro-government forces consolidating recent gains and repelling IS attacks. Looks like Iraq heading towards periods where both insurgents & ISF are going to be offensive at same time. Read more here.

  10. #10
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Jan 1-27 24 out of the 36 successful car bombs used in Iraq were for tactical attacks by the Islamic State on pro-government forces. In recent months anywhere from 33-50% or more of VBIEDs are being directed to these types of operations instead of the regular terrorist ones against civilian targets. Analysis of this shift here.

  11. #11
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    A video uploaded to YouTube appears to show a large Hezbollah Brigades convoy transporting weapons, troops, and armored vehicles to the front to fight the Islamic State.
    Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...#ixzz3QFa5E3rG
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  12. #12
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    My latest article breaksdown the security situation in Diyala. That was one of the first places the insurgency began rebuilding itself in 2012. That quickly brought in militias, one of the first places they deployed outside of Baghdad in 2013. By 2014 militants were threatening eastern and northern Diyala and then seized dozens of villages in June during the summer offensive. Since then the security forces and militias have launched security operation after operation often in the same areas because it doesn't have the forces to hold any area. In January the govt and militias claimed that the entire province was free, but that was propaganda as insurgents are still strong in eastern Diyala. Province has also seen sectarian killings by militias just like what happened from 2005-2008. Read more here.

  13. #13
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Latest article reviews security in Iraq in Jan 2015. Attacks were going down in the winter and started picking up again at the end of Dec into Jan. IS went on the offensive in Kirkuk and Ninewa in addition to continued operations in Anbar and Salahaddin. Led to a huge jump in attacks and casualties during the month. Read more here.

  14. #14
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    New article breaking down extrajudicial killings in Baghdad in January. During summer these incidents spiked but have since stabilized. Analysis here.

  15. #15
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    The National Guard bill finally got out of Iraq's cabinet. Was wide disagreement between different parties on bill. Major change was that Guard will no longer be controlled by governors, but prime minister as commander and chief. Bill now goes to parliament where there are probably even more divisions and no telling whether legislation will be passed or not. Biggest fear amongst Shiite and Kurdish parties is that Guard will be taken over by hostile Sunnis. Read more here.

  16. #16
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    This is the indicator we needed to see ---if this is true when how deep does it go and strength of the Naqshibandiyah? AND will the Sunni tribes now get involved if armed by the US?

    Reports that clashes erupted between the #IS and fighters of Tareq al Naqshibandiyah in Huwaija. #Iraq pic.twitter.com/0G6KjBO0pP

  17. #17
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,366
    davidbfpo

  18. #18
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Iraqi official continue to under report casualties. Since the summer offensive both Baghdad and Irbil have only given partial numbers for members of the security forces lost in the fighting. Recently the Peshmerga Ministry released some numbers but they are below figures reported in the press. Read more here.

  19. #19
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
    Uh huh. Iraqi commander denies paramilitary groups involved in killings http://ara.tv/w2e9w via @AlArabiya_Eng

    Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
    There is more to come on the US' blind eye to Special Groups in Iraq...

  20. #20
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,392

    Default

    Baghdad has returned as the main target of attacks in Iraq after the summer offensive put pressure on Anbar Salahaddin and Ninewa. Attacks have changed in the capital however from waves of car bombs to now more IEDs. Those are less deadlier leading to a paradox an increase in attacks in Baghdad the last three months but declining casualties. Read more here.

Similar Threads

  1. What happens in Iraq now?
    By MikeF in forum Catch-All, OIF
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 07-21-2011, 04:17 PM
  2. Toward Sustainable Security in Iraq and the Endgame
    By Rob Thornton in forum US Policy, Interest, and Endgame
    Replies: 26
    Last Post: 06-30-2008, 12:24 PM
  3. Petraeus, Afghanistan And The Lessons Of Iraq
    By William F. Owen in forum OEF - Afghanistan
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 05-07-2008, 03:12 PM
  4. Plan B? Let’s Give Plan A Some Time First
    By SWJED in forum US Policy, Interest, and Endgame
    Replies: 43
    Last Post: 09-12-2007, 03:39 PM
  5. Top 10 USAID Strategic Accomplishments in Iraq
    By Jedburgh in forum The Information War
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-03-2006, 09:40 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •