Iraq 2015: nowt is simple in this conflict

[JWing]

My weekly security report on Iraq for the 1st wk of April is out. Lowest recorded number of attacks and deaths since start of 2014. Fighting in Anbar remains deadlocked but Baghdad said a new big offensive is coming. Attacks in Diyala have surged recently despite Badr's Ameri claiming the province was cleared back in Jan. Kurdish offensive in southern Kirkuk stalled but violence at very low level there. IS continues harassing attacks upon peshmerga in Ninewa while executing people in Mosul. Finally, clearing ops in northern Tikrit going on while IS attempts attacks upon government forces in surrounding areas. Read more here.

[JWing]

The KDP arrested Haider Sesho the head of the Sinjar Protection Unit. The KDP demanded that he be under their peshmerga control, but he refused and went to Baghdad for support. This angered the KDP and got him arrested. Other Yazidi activists have been either detained or forced to flee for criticizing the KDP. Sinjar hasn't even been freed from IS yet, only Mount Sinjar. Shows that KDP is more interested in regaining political control over the Yazidis of the area than fighting IS right now. Read more here.

[JWing]

Have always been questions about whether Moqtada al-Sadr sent his men to go fight in Syria. He has publicly denied it. Also his difficult relationship with Iran was a complicating factor. Iran and Hezbollah lobbied for Sadr to send his forces but he objected for religious reasons. They eventually wore him down and Sadr was concerned about his competitors amongst the other Shiite parties all going to fight there so he eventually sent 2,000 fighters in June 2013. Read more here.

[JWing]

Aug 2014 IS attacked the Kurds catching them by surprise. War has exposed institutional problems with not only peshmerga but Kurdistan Regional Govt overall. KRG & Peshmerga Ministry were largely ignored as two main ruling parties KDP & PUK came up with their own separate war plans and put top officials and family members in charge of battle. For all the take of move towards statehood exposed weakness of institutions in Kurdstan. Read more here.

[JWing]

2 things today. First my weekly security report for Apr 8-14 is here. Second, here is a report on the security situation in Ramadi. The city has been under threat since Dec 2013. Many neighborhoods have gone back and forth, but IS has gained ground there overall in recent months. In fact it has made an attempt to take the whole city several times since the end of 2014. Here's the story.

[JWing]

Just published my weekly security report. IS up ended govt plans for big offensives in Anbar and Baiji by attacking in those areas. Govt spent whole week trying to regain lost territory. IS also carried out another mass execution in Salahaddin killing a reported 300 people. Was also uptick in violence in Baghdad and Diyala. Irbil had a rare car bombing, and Kurds renewed their push into southern Kirkuk province. Read all the details here.

[JWing]

Since March IS has been attacking in the Thar Thar region north of Fallujah. It has been able to seize three army bases, the dam in the area and killed the commander of the army's 1st Division. The latest base to fall last week reportedly cost the lives of around 140 Iraqi soldiers. Read more here.

[JWing]

Iraq's tribes were one of the backbones of the insurgency. They provided a loose organization, kindship ties that could be used for recruiting, weapons, and some had their own means of funding. Read the background to how tribes got to this position during the Baath period here.

[JWing]

Just published my weekly security report for 4th week of April in Iraq. Was continued heavy fighting in Anbar and Salahaddin to try to regain lost territory after IS offensives. Was a large increase in attacks in Baghdad and a security sweep in Diyala. IS continued with a high rate of car bombings as well. So far however since beginning of new year number of attacks have gone down every month. For more details here is a link.

[Bill Moore]

Two interesting posts in Vox. One is a year old, the other posted today. JWing do you think these are accurate based on your data?

http://www.vox.com/2014/6/20/5819018...n-iraq-cost-us

Six numbers no one should ever forget about the war in Iraq

With that in mind, it's worth remembering the catastrophic costs incurred the last time the US thought it might be a good idea to involve our military in Iraq. Here are six numbers that detail the human, economic, and political toll the invasion of Iraq caused.

http://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-crisis-iraq

27 maps that explain the crisis in Iraq

The current Iraq crisis began in early June, when the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), which already controls parts of Syria, seized much of northern Iraq, including the major city of Mosul. The conflict has roots in Iraq's complicated history, its religious and ethnic divisions, and of course in the Iraq War that began with the 2003 US-led invasion. These 27 maps are a rough guide to today's crisis and the deeper forces behind it.

[JWing]

Just published a new interview with Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi about the Iraqi insurgency. During the summer of 2014 many insurgent groups made deals with Islamic State to carry out summer offensive. Other groups wanted to carve out their own spheres of influence, but most have now been swallowed up by IS or gone dormant. Read more here.

[JWing]

Violence has been leveling off in Iraq since the summer offensive by the insurgents. Avg number of attacks per day has gone down each month in 2015. Overall casualties have been going down as well from 7,000 in June to the 4,000 range from Feb-Apr. For all the details read the full article here.

[JWing]

Hi Bill,

Full disclosure I'm cited in one of those articles. And yes the figures and maps are generally good.

[JWing]

Just published some new graphs on violence in Iraq. Violence has been slowly decreasing since peak in Jun 2014. Casualties have leveled off since high seen during summer. Avg. number of attacks per day actually decreasing since Jan 2014 showing decreasing capabilities of Islamic State. See all the graphs here.

[JWing]

I just published a new interview with Dr. Abbas Kadhim of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the Institute of Shia Studies. He discusses the political ramifications of the on going war in Iraq against the Islamic State. Here's a link.

[davidbfpo]

A short piece by Jill Russell, Kings Wars Studies, on the BBC, which gives an overview and weighs up the refinery's importance:

the strategic value of this piece of territory is in actual fact mixed.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32663262

[JWing]

Just published my weekly security report for Iraq. Was heavy fighting to retake territory lost in Ramadi and govt offensive in Garma. Also fighting over Baiji refinery. Not only that but IS committed another massacre of perhaps 300 Yazidis in Tal Afar. Read the report here.

[JWing]

Did analysis of increasing car bombs in Iraq. Each month of 2015 has been more VBIEDs. IS has obviously rebuilt some of its networks that it lost last year and is now intent on returning to terrorist attacks to make up for lost territory. Read the article here.

[JWing]

Yesterday didn't have time to mention this but I published another interview. This time I talked with Paul Brinkley former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense who worked on economic development and Iraq & now CEO of North America Western Asia Holdings a major investor in Iraq. Brinkley was working in Iraq during the fall of Mosul. He discusses what Iraq was like during the summer of 2014, what were some of the political and economic issues that led to the return of the insurgency, and how U.S. policy went wrong in the country. Read the interview here.

[JWing]

After 16 months of fighting Ramadi finally fell to IS today. ISF units fled Anbar Operations Command and two other parts of city they were holding. Mass displacement. IS now attacking some of the surrounding villages. PM Abadi gave okay for the Hashd to move into area. Big victory for Iranian backed elements who had been attacking premier and US over this issue.