Just did a big study on attack patterns in Iraq. While the numbers can never be complete avg. attacks per day are probably better than casualty counts which are being distorted by fact that Iraqi govt not reporting on its losses for propaganda purposes.
I looked at attacks over the 7 most violent provinces in Iraq Anbar, Babil, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin from Jan 2014-June 2015. I argue that attacks can show where the Islamic State is focusing upon in Iraq. Those point to Anbar and Baghdad being the top priority and Salahaddin being mostly diversionary attacks to pin down govt forces. The other provinces look like they're being used as bases for operations in the rest of the country. Here's a link to the whole report.
Just published my weekly security report for 1st week of July in Iraq. Government forces focused upon surrounding Ramadi & Fallujah plus 2 month long Garma op in Anbar. Also trying to take back Baiji. IS also launched large attacks upon Kurdish forces in Kirkuk and Ninewa that were turned back. For a full break down here's a link.
Statistical Charts Of Security In Iraq One Year After Fall Of Mosul
I just published charts on violence across Iraq from June 2014 when Mosul fell to June 2015. Has number of attacks, deaths, wounded, type of attack for each month across every province. Recording violence in Iraq is especially hard right now. Not all provinces get the same coverage. Biggest problem is government is not reporting most of its losses. Probably thousands have been killed & wounded and the info being withheld. Baghdad is in propaganda mode and does not want to hurt morale. Given those limitations here's what I've recorded over the last year. Here's a link.
I just published my latest interview with former Amb. Robert Ford who did three tours in Iraq and was the Amb in Syria from 2011-2014. Ford reflects on U.S. policy in Iraq and Syria and some lessons learned. Here's a link to the interview.
May was a jump in extrajudicial killings in Baghdad. Was driven by new arrival of displaced from Anbar into the capital who were blamed for violence there. In response militias and vigilantes started kidnapping and murdering some of them. Read the full story here.
weekly security report for Iraq just out. Biggest news obviously beginning of battle of Anbar. Govt forces moving on both Fallujah and Ramadi. Have captured some small towns around those two plus entered some of the suburbs. Real test will be when they get to the core of each city. IS has not been able to stop any major government offensives, but can drag out the fighting and cause heavy casualties. Read about run down of overall violence in Iraq for 2nd week of Iraq plus charts as usual here.
Starting with the Maliki premiership the Iraqi govt has been under reporting casualties. Now that war has broken out with IS this practice has increased. Two reports one by Human Rights Ministry and other by Peshmerga Ministry have 7,000 casualties either not reported or just now being mentioned. Read more here.
I just published my latest interview. This time I talked with Michael Weiss co-author of ISIS Inside The Army of Terror. We discussed the rise and rebirth of the Islamic State. Here's a link.
New security report for 3rd week of July in Iraq just published. Government forces continue push to take towns around Fallujah and Ramadi with propaganda at full blast about progress. Baghdad had dip in attacks as security forces had heavy deployment to protect city during Eid festivities. As soon as that was over attacks shot back up. IS continues challenges to Kurds in Ninewa. Op to retake Baiji in Salahaddin continues. IS also launching massive car bomb campaign in July. Read the full report here.
Just posted a new article about how the U.S. refused to accept an insurgency had been created in Iraq immediately after the invasion. Top administration officials and most of the military leadership continually denied there was any opposition to the U.S. presence in Iraq in 2003 and when they did talk about violence either a) tried to dismiss it as the work of dead enders or b) put it on foreign fighters which connected to the larger narrative of the war on terror. Was not until end of 03 that Washington began to change. This had a big effect upon the war as it prevented U.S. from coming up with an effective strategy to deal with insurgency and showed U.S. unwilling to change its best case scenario for the war. Read more here.
Islamic State had a five month car bomb campaign from Jan-May 2015 with more successful VBIEDs each month. June was a dip as IS had to reload and new campaign started in July. For full breakdown including charts click on this link.
Released my weekly security report for Iraq. Major fighting continued to retake Ramadi and Fallujah in Anbar. Government reported steady progress but there was a lot of propaganda going on. Government forces have bad habit of declaring an area freed as soon as a place is reached whether it is cleared or not. IS has also been able to re-infiltrate into many towns requiring forces to go back in. There is another op to clear Garma which has stalled for weeks. Focus on Anbar has also led to decrease in security reporting in rest of country. Finally Turkish strikes on PKK sites in Dohuk has led to several casualties. Read the full report here.
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Publish summary and analysis of July's violence and casualties in Iraq. Full charts and breakdown here.
Just wrote an article breaking down Turkey's decision to join the US led coalition against IS. Gave reasons for the change and some analysis.
1) Basically Turkey is going to follow its own policy which conflicts with the U.S. Obama admini thinks it can change Erdogan's view in the long term while getting right to use Turkish bases in the short. Obama only has little more than a year in office however so Turkey will probably win out in the long run.
2) Turkey wants to punish the PKK/PYD into submission and make it a client like it's done to the KRG
3) Finally Turkey wants to give more direct aid to the Syrian rebel groups its supports like Al-Nusra with the Syrian Free Zone.
Here's a link to the article
My new article covers a small but important development. The government and Kurds made an agreement to allow displaced people to return to Sadiya in northeast Diyala. The town as cleared back in Nov but was left completely empty because of political disputes which have now been resolved. The displaced have to be let back into these freed areas otherwise it plays into IS's narrative that they are defending Sunnis against a sectarian war to oppress Sunnis. Read the story here.
Just published my weekly security report for Iraq during 1st wk of August. Biggest news Anbar op has stalled. Govt forces are caught up clearing the same villages again and again. Op was started with about half the troops used in the Tikrit op even though it covers a much wider area. Govt simply doesnt have forces to hold many of these small towns around Fallujah-Ramadi-Garma it clears out. IS also conducted mass executions in Ninewa & Kirkuk during the week. Here's the full report.
August marked the one year anniversary of the Islamic State's attack upon the Yazidis in Sinjar in Ninewa province. The insurgents launched a campaign of mass killings, kidnappings, sexual assaults and slavery afterward. What made the situation worse was role of the Kurds who tried to disarm the population before the attack, prevented civilians from fleeing, and then took off without a fight in the face of the militants. Afterward the Kurds tried to blame their rivals for the fiasco, and then rewrote history claiming that they were defeated militarily by IS, but then became the liberators of the Yazidi people. Read the whole story here.
Vast majority of violence in Baghdad is due to bombings. Car bombs get all the headlines but it's really the IEDs and sticky bombs attached to cars that cause the majority of casualties. The Islamic State has dramatically increased its attacks in the capital since the winter of 2014 despite a heavy deployment of the security forces. A glimpse into how IS delivers these explosives to Baghdad was revealed at a checkpoint in Diyala in August. Read the full article here.
New security report for 2nd wk of August. Anbar ops continue to show some progress while joint forces not able to hold some towns they're cleared. Manpower shortages really hurting there. Ninewa saw more IS mass executions for second week. IS counter attacked in Baiji gaining some new territory. Latest IS car bomb campaign increased in 2nd wk with a bombing every day of the week. Read all the details here.
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