China's Emergence as a Superpower (2015 onwards)

[AdamG]

During Chinese president Xi Jinping’s visit to Italy starting tomorrow (March 21), the euro zone’s third-largest economy is expected to officially back the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s global push to extend its political and economic clout abroad.

The move, which is alarming European allies and the US, bears the stamp of a relative newcomer to Italian politics: Michele Geraci.

Xi’s visit to Italy, which will be followed by stops in Monaco and France (paywall), comes after discussions in Europe that have seen China labeled a “systemic rival” and amid efforts by the US to bar Chinese firms from participating in the roll-out of 5G telecom by allies over concerns about network security.

Shades of Il Duce. Gotta keep those trains running on time.

Behind Italy’s move to deepen ties with China—even as global concern about Chinese investment has increased—is Geraci, one of the most ardent admirers of China in the Italian government. Now serving as Italy’s undersecretary for economic development, Geraci lived in China for over a decade teaching finance, and has written approvingly about the country’s approach to everything from China’s stern controls (link in Italian) on internal migration, to its security apparatus, to its investment strategy on the African continent.

https://qz.com/1572243/italy-to-sign...d-project/amp/

[davidbfpo]

A curious stop for the President:

Xi's visit to Italy, which will be followed by stops in Monaco.....

Perhaps the casino(s) are the attraction?

[Bill Moore]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/21...s%20Picks%20OC

So important is the China-Pakistan partnership that Beijing was willing to stick its neck out in support of a key terrorist asset of the Pakistani state who garners little sympathy outside Pakistan.

While most understand that China and Pakistan have a close relationship, many regional experts thought China had the upperhand in the relationship, and had the leverage to support the UN effort to designate Azhar a terrorist, but instead China placed a technical hold on the resolution.

Perhaps the biggest reason to have believed China would let Azhar be designated a terrorist is that it would have been a low-risk move for Beijing. Pakistan’s close friendship with and deep dependence on China—which increased after the United States suspended its security assistance to Pakistan last year—means Islamabad would have been in no position to express displeasure, much less retaliate. So there would have been no deleterious consequences for bilateral relations. In fact, allowing the resolution to pass would have benefited Beijing: It would have brought China some international goodwill at a moment when its global image has been marred by its cruel and repressive policies toward the Uighur community.

[AdamG]

Refreshing take.

China Never Was A Superpower—And It Won’t Be One Anytime Soon

As an initial matter, the popular conception of China rests on a gross misreading of the past. The country, in short, has never been dominant on “the world stage,” as Kaplan and others put it. “The idea that China was somehow a great Asian hegemon at some point in the past, so that all she is doing now is resuming her traditional position is a total misunderstanding of how nations in pre-modern Asia interacted,” Arthur Waldron of the University of Pennsylvania told Strategika. “Fundamentally, they avoided contact lest that lead to disorder, as globalization is doing in China today.”

https://www.hoover.org/research/chin...e-anytime-soon

[Bill Moore]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mkxL4iqcAY&app=desktop

BBC Documentary China vs USA - Empires at war

The video interviews numerous PRC, Taiwan, and U.S. strategists, and as the retired PLA clearly states, China is at war with the U.S. now, but it is a different type of war, unrestricted warfare.

The next article focuses on PLA's maritime militia, or little blue men.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/04/ar...uth-china-sea/

Beijing’s maritime militia, the scourge of South China Sea
China uses hundreds of fishing trawlers, manned by military-trained sailors and modified for ramming and spying, to seize islands

For two years, scores and sometimes hundreds of Chinese fishing ships have been harassing, swarming and spying on Filipino construction crews upgrading infrastructure on the island of Thitu, known as Pagasa in the Philippines. This is the second largest naturally occurring island in the Spratly archipelago, and is home to about 100 Filipinos and a small military detachment.

[davidbfpo]

An event in London last month @ Policy Exchange (a UK think tank) on this topic, albeit with a reference to the internal Conservative Party competition for the next Prime Minister. The panel has an Australian, Alex Downer, an ex-Foreign Minister; ret'd US General Petraeus; two UK SME and a former Conservative Minister of Defence, Ivan Fallon. The podcast is 71 mins long and I am currently listening to it.
Link:https://policyexchange.org.uk/pxeven...rise-of-china/

[davidbfpo]

A rather good article IMHO on this vexed issue by Gerard Baker, of the WSJ, now two weeks ago in the British weekly magazine 'The Spectator'. He outlines the Trump approach, drawing attention to his VP's speech in October 2018 - which I had not heard of - and concludes with:

No one thinks a war with China is either desirable or likely. But what’s changed in the US since Trump came to power is a belief that, just as with the threat from the old Soviet Union, peace is more likely to be achieved through enhanced US strength and a willingness to project it than through accommodation and vacillation.

Link, which includes a podcast discussion between the author and two Brits:https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/...actually-work/