China's Emergence as a Superpower (2015 onwards)

[AdamG]

China's military leadership has pledged its support to Russia as tensions between Moscow and the West further deteriorate into diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions and dueling defense drills.

In his first visit to Russia, newly appointed Chinese Defense Minister Wei Feng attended the seventh Moscow International Security Conference accompanied by a delegation of other high-level military officials. Emphasizing that his trip was coordinated directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Wei said that he had two major messages for Russia at a time when both nations were attempting to modernize their armed forces and strengthen their hands in global affairs in spite of U.S. fears.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-mil...161427016.html

[Bill Moore]

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...t-fights-24449

China Has Big Plans to Win the Next War It Fights

Numerous Chinese military publications indicate that the PLA sees war as no longer a contest between adversarial units, arms, services, or even specific weapons platforms, but rather a contest among numerous adversarial operational systems. This is referred to in PLA literature as systems confrontation and is considered the “basic operational mode of joint campaigns under informatized conditions.” “Informatized,” according to a recent U.S. Department of Defense report, is the PLA term for “real-time data-networked command.”

Not entirely new, but it is of interest that the Chinese are increasingly adapting the Western way of war, a way of war I doubt they are culturally inclined to excel at. Their systems of systems of approach appears logical if they're focused on preventing an adversary from projecting decisive force, so they get points in the science aspect of this strategy. Whether their commanders are capable of executing the art of war (Sun Tzu will roll over in his grave) in a fluid and chaotic situation remains questionable. From an offensive perspective, this strategy has its limitations. After the aggressor destroys an adversary's systems (as depicted in the article), the adversary can (e.g. Iraq) result to a more primitive form of warfare where high end technological advantages in cyber, space, air, etc., will prove less useful and certainly not decisive. Scientific theorists tend to under estimate an adversary's will to resist because they assume everyone conducts risk calculus using the same logic.

China may have big plans to win, but big plans can and do fail big also.

[davidbfpo]

China Has Big Plans to Win the Next War It Fights

Not entirely new....China may have big plans to win, but big plans can and do fail big also.

Bill,

Sometimes I enjoy RAND's product, this one failed my simple test. It is more alarmist than predictive. Plus as you neatly say 'Not entirely new'. From my faraway armchair I do wonder how the PLA can successfully adapt to win.

How many national armies do not have such plans and assumptions? The PLA is no different, although I would wager it is a far more conformist culture than most Western militaries in peacetime and possibly when at war or engaged in combat operations.

Yes the PLA may have studied waging war etc. Aided no doubt by the relatively large numbers studying openly abroad: a couple each year @ Oxford University CCW, a good number at Australian military colleges and a large number doing their PhD in the USA. How many wars or combat operations have the PLA been engaged in since Korea? Assisting North Vietnam, a border war with Vietnam, border clashes with the USSR, some UN ops and sometimes "hot".

[davidbfpo]

This Sydney Morning Herald article's full title is: China eyes Vanuatu military base in plan with global ramifications.

It opens with:

China has approached Vanuatu about building a permanent military presence in the South Pacific in a globally significant move that could see the rising superpower sail warships on Australia’s doorstep. Fairfax Media can reveal there have been preliminary discussions between the Chinese and Vanuatu governments about a military build-up in the island nation. While no formal proposals have been put to Vanuatu's government, senior security officials believe Beijing’s plans could culminate in a full military base.

Both governments deny this.
Link:https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...09-p4z8j9.html

The map of 'Bases and potential bases: China, US and India' is well different and spot the US base that is missing?

[Backwards Observer]

The Vanuatu Daily Post's article's full title is: Want To Lead In The Pacific? Try Listening First

The Chinese Bases folderol is just the latest chorus in a litany of Australian indifference to Pacific voices. Every time some tendentious prat opens their mouth and starts telling the Pacific that what’s good for Australia is obviously good for us, the entire region sighs.

That jolt you just felt was a collective eye roll that nearly tipped the island.

Can we get something clear? If you want us to listen to you, you’ve got to listen to us.

http://dailypost.vu/opinion/want-to-...35cb27275.html

[Backwards Observer]

From the ASPI Strategist

An international system is only effective if it’s seen as fair to the vast majority, including those who disagree with our point of view.

Not BS - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ru...alert-alarmed/

China has become the most formidable challenge to Asia’s regional order, and to Australia’s stake in that order, since the days of Japanese imperialism.

(i.e. since the days of european colonialism)

BS - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wi...ed-order-asia/

[Backwards Observer]

Australia ideal testing ground for China's influence - Global Times

China may not like being lectured by Australia about politics, human rights or anything else. But Chinese policymakers need to recognize that there are equally strong opinions about key aspects of "Australian values" that will generate significant blowback if consciously or accidentally threatened.

Is one of these "Australian Values" white supremacy? Just asking 'cos I heard more racist nonsense in two weeks in Australia than in eighteen years in the US. Don't think it was malicious, sure was noticeable. Here's an explanation I got from someone, "when we call a chinky, "a chinky", it's not being racist, it's just what we call 'em."

China's policymakers need to realize that it's not even necessary for claims about interference to be true, or any different in intent from the sorts of thing that every other country does for that matter, for them to create significant blowback.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1098390.shtml

it seems of little use to talk to anyone, not just the countries mentioned in this article, that counts a disregard for the truth as a value


...


[anecdote] When I was working in Australia a guy came in and after the briefest exchange seemed to take an instant dislike to me. If I was the only one in the shop he'd generally leave and come back when there was someone else he could deal with. A while later I was out having a smoke and he drove up in his ute. There was a White Pride Worldwide sticker with the celtic cross on his bumper. I figured okay I'm half-chinese so it's an invasion thing.
A few weeks later White Pride guy is in the shop and this chinese guy walks in. White Pride guy sees him, breaks into a big smile and they hang around laughing and joking for about fifteen minutes then go get a sandwich. I asked the other guy in the shop, "What's up with White Pride guy?" He goes, "I't's your accent (eighteen years in the States). He thinks you're a septic (septic tank - yank). He doesn't like Americans."