China's Emergence as a Superpower (2015 onwards)

[flagg]

While not principally national security related, this article on WeChat is worth reading:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/09/t...na-wechat.html

It offers a glimpse into the fundamental differences between individual Western social platforms and the all encompassing single app WeChat in China with over 1 billion monthly active users.

Again, while it’s not principally a weapon or tool of war, it is quite possibly the most valuable piece of virtual infrastructure in China worthy of a CARVER matrix.

It’s like Facebook, WhatsApp, banking/credit/payments, 3rd Party services, etc. It arguably earns the title “Super App”.

Trade has been used as a weapon.

It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the WeChat platform could be used as a weapon to expand a Chinese dominant economic block by compelling its use with trading partners via leverage.

What if Chinese debt trap diplomacy compelled the use of WeChat?

Is there a risk of the US Dollar global reserve currency becoming the WeChat global default platform?

[Bill Moore]

While not principally national security related, this article on WeChat is worth reading:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/09/t...na-wechat.html

It offers a glimpse into the fundamental differences between individual Western social platforms and the all encompassing single app WeChat in China with over 1 billion monthly active users.

Again, while it’s not principally a weapon or tool of war, it is quite possibly the most valuable piece of virtual infrastructure in China worthy of a CARVER matrix.

It’s like Facebook, WhatsApp, banking/credit/payments, 3rd Party services, etc. It arguably earns the title “Super App”.

Trade has been used as a weapon.

It’s not outside the realm of possibility that the WeChat platform could be used as a weapon to expand a Chinese dominant economic block by compelling its use with trading partners via leverage.

What if Chinese debt trap diplomacy compelled the use of WeChat?

Is there a risk of the US Dollar global reserve currency becoming the WeChat global default platform?

It is already used a population control mechanism. It is amazing how dominate it is throughout the parts of China I visited. I know futurists envision a cashless society, which is a way to empower state control over the individual. Arguably the CPC wages two wars, one internal against the perceived enemies of the party, and one external against Taiwan, Japan, and numerous Southeast Asian nations.

[flagg]

It is already used a population control mechanism. It is amazing how dominate it is throughout the parts of China I visited. I know futurists envision a cashless society, which is a way to empower state control over the individual. Arguably the CPC wages two wars, one internal against the perceived enemies of the party, and one external against Taiwan, Japan, and numerous Southeast Asian nations.

WeChat is absolutely dominant in people's lives within China.

As well as having an estimated external user base of 100-200 million.

I believe (One Belt One Road)OBOR will continue virtually unimpeded for the following reasons:

1)US retrenchment into Fortress America combined with declining social and financial capacity(and national WILL) to fund a long term integrated strategic diplomatic effort.

2)EU distractions of BREXIT and increasing political fractures

3)Russia lacks the financial capacity to realistically compete

4)India may be able to compete in the future as it's GDP expands, but weighed against internal development.

I see that leaving China to execute debt/trade deals to shape global users onto the WeChat platform.

One Platform, One Network(OPON).

I don't see it as a single global platform/network default standard

But I definitely see it as one of several global platforms/networks of globally strategic importance.

Despite artificial barriers such as Great Firewall and aligned western opposition to Huawei, ultimately Metcalfe's Law and Zipf's Law will come into effect in a global battle between competing platforms.

My initial thoughts are:

We see growing geopolitical friction between competing "superplatforms" and their superpower sponsors

We see increasing recognition that it's not just the means of exchange that matters, but the platform on which the exchange occurs as well as the network participants using it.

We see developing world "land grabs" for increasing platform/network "lock in".

We see increasing political/regulatory friction between nations when trans-national and global superplatform potential is recognised.

We see WeChat's superplatform better positioned for strategic advantage due to:

1)Single 100% integrated platform/network

2)Government integration

3)Mobile DNA

The incumbent Western superplatform is a FAANG patchwork in comparison and at frequent odds against government.

So in comparison, while the western superplatform has greater global reach it is neither operationally nor politically integrated to maximise geopolitical expansion, influence, and long-term future exploitation.

When you look at future focused efforts such as Estonian e-residency, it's not a stretch of the imagination to see digital residency features and benefits only available to "locked in" users of full integrated superplatforms becoming a natural progression.

WeChat platform lock-in within China is nearly universal and increasingly difficult to exist without for a domestic user base of 1 billion monthly active users.

With 100-200 million users outside of China, the expansion of a fully integrated superplatform has very real potential and represents a considerable threat to the status quo.

The Cold War was a battle between ideologies.

Perhaps Cold War Redux will be a non kinetic battle between competing sovereign integrated platforms?

If I was asked to make a binary choice between:
A)global reserve currency
B)superplatform global standard

I would pick "B", because "B" could subvert "A", but "A" would not necessarily be able to subvert "B".

Do you think a quiet "One Platform, One Network" doctrine as a shadow under One Belt, One Road is worthy of further exploration?

Same with Superplatform(fully integrated with government) as the new Superpower.

Thoughts?

[Bill Moore]

I missed this article when it was posted to SWJ earlier, but just finished reading it in the Winter 2018 issue of "The Drop," the Special Forces Association magazine.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...engagement-hoa

On the Horns of a Dilemma – Addressing Chinese Security Engagement in the HOA
Doug Livermore

Overall well balanced and insightful until you get to the last section on U.S. opportunities. I found that section overly optimistic. Looking at the world through rose-colored glasses if you will. Win-win solutions are not what the Chinese pursue, they seek leverage for exploitation through insidious means such as creating debt traps. Instead of socialism with Chinese characteristics, a more accurate description would be neo-colonialism with Chinese characteristics.

[Bill Moore]

Huawei, like many Chinese companies, they stole their innovation from other countries, and then seek to penetrate their markets with their knockoff technology.

https://www.theamericanconservative....global-menace/

How Chinese Theft Becomes a Global Menace
Huawei, accused many times over of stealing secrets, is poised to control next-gen cellular technology worldwide.

Huawei is trying harder to take tech than develop it, maintains Anne Stevenson-Yang of Beijing-based J Capital Research. “Virtually the entire Chinese bureaucratic apparatus has been mobilized to support Huawei,” she writes in a research note issued this month. “And, given the way top Huawei executives have dissembled in order to support a cut-and-dried theft of IP, one begins to wonder whether the company’s whole mission might be to acquire foreign technologies under the cover of an independent global conglomerate.”

Let their be no doubt that not only did China steal the technology that underpins Huawei, they will use Huawei technology to increase their ability to steal more secrets from other countries and support totalitarian governments use technology to more effectively suppress their people. It isn't just wireless technology, it is a means and ways to achieve nefarious ends.

The fifth generation of wireless communications will exponentially increase data carried—and the power of those who supply network equipment. The State Department’s Rob Strayer has been warning U.S. partners that China, if it ends up controlling 5G, could steal “trillions” of dollars of intellectual property, insert malware, and shut down networks.

Anxiety about Huawei equipment is not theoretical. Beijing for five years, from 2012 to 2017, secretly took data using “backdoors” in Huawei equipment installed in the new African Union headquarters, which China donated to the organization.

[davidbfpo]

From the UK website an interesting overview. Here is one passage:

One thing is clear though, the Gulf is no longer going to be an exclusively Western pond to operate in. There will be long term challenges about how to respond to the Chinese presence, both in the region, and realistically in time in the Med too. For the first time ever, we are on the cusp of an out of region power establishing a credible and sustainable military presence close to our strategic areas of interest.

Link:https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot....-maritime.html

I am aware that Oman's younger generation are less inclined to be pro-Western and PRC has made investments there that dwarf the UK's traditional role.

[Bill Moore]

From the UK website an interesting overview. Here is one passage:
Link:https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot....-maritime.html

I am aware that Oman's younger generation is less inclined to be pro-Western and PRC has made investments there that dwarf the UK's traditional role.

They have also made investments in Greece, Italy, and Spain. I think the region would and should welcome the investment if it didn't have insidious intentionality. Unfortunately, little good comes from Chinese investment. Countries that agree to it are basically agreeing to surrender some degree of their sovereignty.