China's Emergence as a Superpower (2015 onwards)

[davidbfpo]

A British academic SME on China has this short comment; which opens with:

Donald Trump’s rise to the presidency was followed with amazement and apprehension across East Asia. China in particular was on tenterhooks – and now it needs to figure out what to do.

Link:https://theconversation.com/china-grapples-with-the-mixed-blessing-of-a-trump-victory-68625?

Can the USA co-operate with PRC once President Trump is in office? Trade is more than export/import and buying US Treasury debt.

[davidbfpo]

A 2015 IISS Adelphi paper 'China's Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens and Assets Abroad', which ably explains the many changes in this policy area.

From the IISS website:

China has long adhered to a principle of ‘non-interference’ in other states’ affairs. However, as more of its companies have been investing in projects overseas, and millions of its nationals are travelling abroad, Beijing is finding itself progressively involved in other countries – through the need to protect these interests and citizens.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/...trong-arm-63b7

Fascinating to learn that China does not keep a register of its citizens working and living abroad. It may after the evacuation from Libya, it expected just under 4k and found 36k.

Plus pointing out that the PLA infantry battalion in South Sudan, it's first combat assignment, was deployed in Juba a long way from where a state-owned company operates oilfields.

There is a standard chapter on Pakistan and the Mekong River piracy protection development, but Africa is the main focus. Who knew an estimated 200k Chinese are in Angola?

There is an old thread, closed in 2011, on China protecting its investments abroad.

[Azor]

Reuters: http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14526J

A Chinese Navy warship has seized an underwater drone deployed by an American oceanographic vessel in international waters in the South China Sea, triggering a formal demarche from the United States and a demand for its return, a U.S. defense official told Reuters on Friday.

The incident -- the first of its kind in recent memory -- took place on Dec. 15 northwest of Subic Bay just as the USNS Bowditch, an oceanographic survey ship, was about to retrieve the unmanned, underwater vehicle (UUV), the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

[davidbfpo]

Via Defence in Depth an insight into China in space and ends with the "up's and down's":

The growing Chinese orbital behemoth, like America’s celestial leviathan, is a fount of economic and technological momentum, as well as a source of simultaneous vulnerability and resilience depending on the space systems relied upon and threated. Although China has continued its space weapons development on a steady course in the past ten years, it has been hard at work launching many more targets of its own into outer space.

Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2017/01/11...asants-plough/

[AdamG]

The aircraft carrier is the most capable offshore warship ever built. It is considered a symbol of national and naval strength, and thus an indispensable part of China’s dream of building itself into a maritime power.
This made the first open-sea training exercise of China’s sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, quite significant. Its voyage into the western Pacific has been a milestone for the nation’s navy, which has more a history of humiliation than of glory.
It’s the first time the vessel, which was commissioned in 2012, has ventured into distant waters, passing by Taiwan twice on its journey in the South China Sea

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinio...boat-diplomacy

China’s first aircraft carrier formation which moved close to Taiwan and conducted drills in the disputed South China Sea has returned to Qingdao port after finishing exercises and testing combat-capability, the Chinese navy has said. Comprised of aircraft carrier Liaoning, a number of destroyers, some J-15 carrier-based fighter jets and helicopters, the fleet sailed through the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China sea, it said.
The formation, which set off on Christmas day, passed through the Miyakato, Bashi and Taiwan straits, according to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Taiwan protectively rushed fighter jests and naval ships.

http://indianexpress.com/article/wor...ssion-4474347/

[AdamG]

Initially, it's believed that the Sharp Sword will be used for reconnaissance in areas with dense air defense networks, as well as tailing foreign warships. As the Chinese develops a familiarity with the Sharp Sword, it could be used for combat operations as a "first through the door" weapon against highly defended, high-value targets, as well as an aerial tanker for other drones and carrier aircraft (akin to plans for the U.S. MQ-25). There is even the possibility of carrier version for China's planned next generation of catapult equipped aircraft carriers.

http://www.popsci.com/china-sharp-sw...src=SOC&dom=fb

[Azor]

On Jack Ma (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/18/chine...structure.html)

It's not that other countries steal jobs from you guys…It's your strategy. Distribute the money and things in a proper way.

Does Jack mean for America’s leading 10,000 families? Is Trump not promulgating an approach to international trade that is self-interested rather than principled?

The American multinational companies made millions and millions of dollars from globalization…The past 30 years, IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, they've made tens of millions — the profits they've made are much more than the four Chinese banks put together. ... But where did the money go?

It went to shareholders, Jack. Where does Alibaba’s money go. To the poor serfs of western China? Hardly.

You're supposed to spend money on your own people…Not everybody can pass Harvard, like me…As a business person, I want the world to share the prosperity together.

No, Jack. You’re worried about the gravy train ending for China. Already, China is outsourcing to Ethiopia, Vietnam and Malaysia. We’ll see how long the CPC has the “mandate of heaven” when only millionaires and billionaires are left…

On Xi (http://www.economist.com/news/china/...rock-stability)

No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war…[China]…will keep its door wide open and not close it

It’s almost as if Xi is defending the status quo that he wants so desperately to revise…How curious.

[The Paris Agreement is] a responsibility we must assume for future generations

Well, look no further than the smog of Beijing to see how the CPC handles its responsibility. Given that China has deprived itself of future generations, this remark is laughable.

[AdamG]

In recent years, China has moved aggressively to increase its power projection capabilities through the rapid modernization of its navy. Military spending has soared, with Beijing’s defense budget expected to reach $233 billion by 2020, more than all Western European countries combined, and double the figure from 2010, according to Jane’s Defense Weekly. In 2016, the United States spent more than $622 billion on the military, Jane’s said.
These days, Chinese naval vessels, including nuclear submarines, roam much of the globe, from contested waters of the Yellow Sea to Sri Lanka and San Diego.
China’s decision to establish an overseas military installation comes as little surprise to those who have watched Beijing steadily jettison a decades-old principle of noninterference in the affairs of other countries.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/25/w....html?src=recg

[davidbfpo]

RUSI hosted this recent conference: 'RUSI International Sea Powers Conference: A European Net Assessment of the PLA(N)' and the Abstract is breathless:https://rusi.org/conference/rusi-int...ssessment-plan

There is a video (42 mins, skip the first 5mins)with two speakers:

Vice Admiral Umio Otsuka, President, Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force Command and Staff College, and Dr Peter Roberts, Director, Military Sciences, RUSI on the growth and strategic capabilities of the Chinese Navy.

There's also a month old RUSI commentary by Dr Roberts:https://rusi.org/commentary/china%E2...ppears-horizon