China's Emergence as a Superpower (2015 onwards)

[AdamG]

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s air force has carried out exercises near the Korean peninsula, practicing to defend against a “surprise attack” coming over the sea, Chinese state media said.
The exercises came days after North Korea’s sixth, and most powerful, nuclear test fueled global concern that the isolated nation plans more weapons tests, possibly of a long-range missile.
An anti-aircraft defense battalion held the exercises early on Tuesday, near the Bohai Sea, the innermost gulf of the Yellow Sea that separates China from the Korean peninsula, an official military website said.
Troops traveled to the site from central China before immediately beginning drills to fend off the “surprise attack” simulating real battle, it said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ch...KCN1BH1CY?il=0

[AdamG]

U.S. Intelligence Sees China's Military Expanding Bases Globally
Bloomberg

China’s first overseas military base in the small African country of Djibouti is “probably the first of many” the country intends to build around the world, which could bring its interests into conflict with the U.S., according to American intelligence officials. “China has the fastest-modernizing military in the world next to the United States,” according to insights provided Thursday by U.S. intelligence officials, who asked not to be identified discussing the information.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bases-globally

[davidbfpo]

The title is from a short quote by the late Singaporean leader Lee Kwan Yew of China’s rise, in full it was:

It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world.

Now who said this?:

Taking the long view, we simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside the family of nations, there to nurture its fantasies, cherish its hates and threaten its neighbours.

The BBC's China Editor has a profile of President Xi Jinping’s, where she concludes:

Xi’s China has so far married great wealth with great repression. If he continues to cage his tigers, clean up his comrades and silence discordant voices, the existential questions may be for others. Not since Chairman Mao has China’s dream of greatness rested so heavily on one man.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/...ts_Chairman_Xi

[AdamG]

BEIJING has outlined plans to become the world’s biggest superpower within the next 30 years.
Opening a five-yearly national congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping set out his time frame for the country to become a “global leader” with international influence.
In his 3 ½ hour speech, Mr Xi urged a reinvigorated Communist Party to take a stronger role in society and economic development to better address the nation’s “grim” challenges.
Speaking in the massive Great Hall of the People near Tiananmen Square, Mr Xi laid out his vision of a ruling party that served as the vanguard for everything from defending national security to providing moral guidance.
He also called for the party not only to safeguard China’s sovereignty but also to revitalise Chinese culture, oppose “erroneous” ideology and promote religion that is “Chinese in orientation”.

CHINA’S BIG PLAN
Senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Dr Malcolm Davis, told news.com.au Mr Xi’s message was loud and clear.
Dr Davis said Beijing wanted to replace the US as the world’s dominant superpower, an idea many people have dismissed as absurd as recently as a few years ago.*
“China just doesn’t want to be a just regional superpower, it wants to be the superpower,” he said.
Dr Davis said Beijing wanted to challenge US supremacy and reshape the region according to China’s interests and economic development.
However, he acknowledged China faced several domestic challenges which stood in the way of its long-term goal, including suppression of democracy and freedom of speech.
Dr Davis also said Beijing faced a huge demographic problem with an increasing ageing population and declining birthrate.
This, in turn, would further impact on economic growth.

* Unless you'd been following along at SWJ.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/...d5ca89a2479e94

[AdamG]

Get Ready for an Imperial China
Investors need to wake up to a leader with a very different vision for China
https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-rea...ina-1508919166

See also http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41746245

[davidbfpo]

An IISS event last month with Professor Graham Allison talking about his new book (published May 2017) and entitled 'China and the United States: destined for war?'. There is a recording to listen to (68 mins).
Link:http://www.iiss.org/en/events/arunde...d-for-war-3469

The book is 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?' and on Amazon USA as a 'best seller', where the summary ends with:

explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past — and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today.

Link with 150 reviews and mainly 5*:https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-...ydides+Trap%3F

[Bill Moore]

Of course we would like to avoid the trap, but the trend line remains negative.

http://www.atimes.com/article/pla-wa...iwan-airspace/

Li Kexin, a minister of the Chinese Embassy, warned that the day a US warship visits Kaohsiung will be the day the People’s Liberation Army reclaims Taiwan, when asked to comment on a law passed by the US Congress that authorizes port calls by the US Navy to the island.

Taipei-based Liberty Times, however, said that symbolic posturing aside, Chinese warplanes were unlikely to make further provocations, such as by flying far inland above major Taiwanese cities.

That assessment soon drew a backlash on the mainland, with Beijing’s mouthpiece Global Times prodding the PLA to conduct direct flyovers of towns and cities on the island, even above Taipei.

Heck, why we're all getting the nationalistic feeling revved up and huffing and puffing, I recommend parking 7th Fleet in Taiwan's ports and daring China to do something about it.