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Thread: China's Emergence as a Superpower (2015 onwards)

  1. #61
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    Angry

    Of course we would like to avoid the trap, but the trend line remains negative.

    http://www.atimes.com/article/pla-wa...iwan-airspace/

    Li Kexin, a minister of the Chinese Embassy, warned that the day a US warship visits Kaohsiung will be the day the People’s Liberation Army reclaims Taiwan, when asked to comment on a law passed by the US Congress that authorizes port calls by the US Navy to the island.
    Taipei-based Liberty Times, however, said that symbolic posturing aside, Chinese warplanes were unlikely to make further provocations, such as by flying far inland above major Taiwanese cities.

    That assessment soon drew a backlash on the mainland, with Beijing’s mouthpiece Global Times prodding the PLA to conduct direct flyovers of towns and cities on the island, even above Taipei.
    Heck, why we're all getting the nationalistic feeling revved up and huffing and puffing, I recommend parking 7th Fleet in Taiwan's ports and daring China to do something about it.

  2. #62
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    According to a U.S. government source who described recent intelligence assessments on the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) on the condition of anonymity, China recently conducted two tests of a new missile known as the DF-17.
    The first test took place on November 1 and the second test took place on November 15. The November 1 test was the first Chinese ballistic missile test to take place after the conclusion of the first plenum of the Communist Party of China’s 19th Party Congress in October.
    Parts of the U.S. intelligence community assess that the DF-17 is a medium-range system, with a range capability between 1,800 and 2,500 kilometers. The missile is expected to be capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional payloads and may be capable of being configured to deliver a maneuverable reentry vehicle instead of an HGV.
    Most of the missile’s flight time during the November 1 flight test was powered by the HGV during the glide phase, the source said. The missile successfully made impact at a site in Xinjiang Province, outside Qiemo, “within meters” of the intended target, the source added.
    The DF-17, per current U.S. intelligence assessments, is expected to reach initial operating capability around 2020.
    “Although hypersonic glide vehicles and missiles flying non-ballistic trajectories were first proposed as far back as World War II, technological advances are only now making these systems practicable,” Vice Admiral James Syring, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, remarked in June, during a testimony before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee.
    Hypersonic gliders, by virtue of their low-altitude flight, present challenges to existing radar sensor technology enabling missile defenses. By flying at a low altitude instead of reentering from a much higher apogee on a ballistic trajectory, adversary radars would detect HGVs with less time for an interception to take place before the payload can reach its target.
    HGVs, however, are considerably slower in the final stages of their flight than most reentry vehicles on a ballistic trajectory. This may leave them vulnerable to interception by advanced terminal point defense systems.
    In a report detailing new ballistic and cruise missile threats to the U.S. released this year, the U.S. National Air and Space Intelligence Center observed that “Hypersonic glide vehicles delivered by ballistic missile boosters are an emerging threat that will pose new challenges to missile defense systems.”
    https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/intr...glide-vehicle/

    See also
    http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...naval+war+2015
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  3. #63
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  4. #64
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    Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan and relations have become increasingly frosty since Tsai took office in May last year, as she refuses to acknowledge Taiwan is part of "one China".
    China views self-ruling Taiwan as part of its territory, to be reunified at some point.
    Tsai warned that China's frequent air and naval drills showed that "its intentions for military expansion in the region are getting more and more obvious".
    According to Taiwan's defence ministry, Chinese warplanes conducted 25 drills around Taiwan between August 2016 and mid-December this year.
    The latest known drill took place on December 20 when several Chinese planes, including fighters and bombers, passed through the Bashi Channel south of Taiwan to the Pacific and back.
    Earlier this year, China sent its only aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, through the Taiwan Strait during a drill as a show of strength, but it did not enter Taiwanese waters.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...tary-expansion
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  5. #65
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    Default 1,700 Planes Ready for War: Everything You Need To Know About China's Air Force

    Roughly 33 percent of the PLAAF and PLANAF’s combat aircraft are old second-generation fighters of limited combat value against peer opponents, save perhaps in swarming attacks. Another 28 percent include strategic bombers and more capable but dated third-generation designs. Finally, 38 percent are fourth-generation fighters that can theoretically hold their own against peers like the F-15 and F-16. Stealth fighters account for 1 percent. However, the technical capabilities of aircraft are just half the story; at least as important are training, organizational doctrine and supporting assets ranging from satellite recon to air-refueling tankers, ground-based radars and airborne command posts.
    http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...t-chinas-23901
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  6. #66
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    Default China’s modern Silk Road hits political, financial hurdles

    An AP article that starts with Pakistan and goes much further afield, e.g. Tanzania.
    Link:https://apnews.com/0956dd7edd7344cfa...ancial-hurdles
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-12-2018 at 03:53 PM. Reason: 74,664v
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  7. #67
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    Default I'll just leave this here...

    Chinese authorities have demolished a well-known Christian megachurch, inflaming long-standing tensions between religious groups and the Communist Party.
    Witnesses and overseas activists said the paramilitary People's Armed Police used dynamite and excavators to destroy the Golden Lampstand Church, which has a congregation of more than 50,000, in the city of Linfen in Shaanxi province.
    ChinaAid, a US-based Christian advocacy group, said local authorities planted explosives in an underground worship hall to demolish the building following, constructed with nearly $2.6m (£1.9m) in contributions from local worshippers in one of China's poorest regions.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a8156031.html
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    This is the second church they destroyed in recent days. Behavior that is one step removed from ISIS, but at least they're not killing Christians in large numbers yet. This is a sign of communist party weakness, but weak often means dangerous. Xi also told the military recently not to be afraid to die for China. You can follow the bread crumbs to the logical conclusion, or ignore them like Chamberlain ignored Hitler.

  9. #69
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    BEIJING — American and European companies involved in joint ventures with state-owned Chinese firms have been asked in recent months to give internal Communist Party cells an explicit role in decision-making, executives and business groups say.
    It is, they say, a worrying demand that threatens to put politics before profits, and the interests of the party above all other considerations. It suggests that foreign companies are no longer exempt from President Xi Jinping’s overarching vision of complete control.
    “The creeping intrusion by the party apparatus into the boardrooms of foreign-invested enterprises has not yet manifested itself on a large scale, but things are certainly going down that path,” said James Zimmerman, a managing partner of the law firm Sheppard, Mullin, Richter and Hampton and former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, who is instructing clients to “push back.”
    The party’s demand would give its cells a formal role in approving management decisions, such as investment plans or personnel changes. And that is ringing alarm bells.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...14d_story.html
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  10. #70
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    Default A gift that listened: the AU HQ building

    Almost amusing, even if other nations also seek to learn, this Chinese gift may harm how African nations see China:
    In 2012, the Chinese government “graciously offered” African States a gift and constructed the African Union’s HQ in Addis Ababa. The act of soft diplomacy proved to be a rather self-serving maneuver to spy on the activities and discussions being conducted by leaders of the exclusive continental group.
    Link:https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/201...s-addis-ababa/

    (Added)
    A BBC report that cites Kuang Weilin, the Chinese ambassador to the AU:
    Certainly, it will create problems for China-Africa relation.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42861276
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-29-2018 at 03:38 PM. Reason: Addition made
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  11. #71
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    Default Chinese peacekeeping in Africa

    A short article that concludes:
    While there may be more material drivers behind China’s increased involvement in peacekeeping in Africa, these two national narratives – that of the responsible great power and the leader of the developing world – have shaped how China develops its role within peacekeeping, creating limitations to China’s actions. These narratives will therefore shape China’s role in peacekeeping in Africa in the future.
    Link:https://sustainablesecurity.org/2018...ing-in-africa/
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  12. #72
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    Default China's Belt and Road Initiative

    https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas...-years-later-0

    China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Five Years Later

    This is balanced statement, with numerous implications. Much more in the article than what I'm focused on below.

    Politically, China is already benefitting from the BRI with individual countries and globally. Traditional partners like Pakistan, where BRI-related investments total roughly $62 billion, have become even closer. Chinese infrastructure loans have helped persuade some countries, including the Philippines and Cambodia, to reevaluate military or diplomatic ties with the United States. China is also forging ties with countries further west, particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe. China’s “16+1” framework brings together a diverse set of countries in the region, many of whom have little in common other than their interest in doing business with China. These and other developments suggest the BRI is producing political dividends.
    Most SWJ readers understand the nexus of economic and security interests, but perhaps don't have visibility on the global scale of this challenge to U.S. and allied interests.

    Even more important to U.S. economic interests is the BRI’s longer-term impact on major global systems. Since World War II, the United States has played a leading role in creating, expanding, and defending open trade and financial systems. The United States has done this not merely out of goodwill, but also out of self-interest.
    A BRI that succeeds on China’s terms could revise these systems to reflect Chinese interests. Changes would be seen in supply chains for goods, from manufactured products to energy and other resources. China’s currency would become more widely used. Chinese technical standards, for everything from high-speed railway systems to wireless networks, would become more widely adopted, as would Chinese preferences for environmental and social safeguards. Collectively, these changes would push the United States away from its current position in the global economy and move China toward the center.
    A BRI that fails also has implications for U.S. economic interests.
    The following assertion calls into question our ability to predict the future, and how fast things can change. Although we arguably did create a vacuum both economically and militarily.

    It is sobering to recall the U.S. position in Asia at the beginning of this century. In 2000, a bipartisan commission at the Harvard Kennedy School examined U.S. national interests and noted, “No country in East Asia, including China, appears capable of seriously challenging US leadership any time soon unless America, through neglect or indifference, were to create a vacuum.”24 Today, the U.S. position in Asia is considerably weaker.
    Finally the recommendation.

    The BRI has all the marks of a difficult foreign policy challenge. It is a slow-moving development that will unfold in decades rather than days. It is functionally and geographically vast, spanning the responsibilities of many U.S. agencies. It requires grappling with both economics and security issues. It will be tempting to delay action and difficult to coordinate an effective response. Ultimately, the best U.S. response to the BRI is not a response at all, but a compelling U.S. economic vision, resourced strategically and sustained over time.

  13. #73
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    BEIJING — The Chinese New Year began with the traditional lighting of firecrackers on Friday, but the country's military has been working on incendiaries on an entirely different scale.
    Over the past year, the nation that invented gunpowder has been rolling out an array of high-tech weapons that some experts say could threaten the global superiority of the United States.
    "The U.S. no longer possesses clear military-technical dominance, and China is rapidly emerging as a would-be superpower in science and technology," said Elsa B. Kania, an adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.
    The Chinese People's Liberation Army "might even cut ahead of the U.S. in new frontiers of military power," she added.
    Article touches on five categories.
    1. An electromagnetic railgun
    2. High-tech warships
    3. Familiar fighter jets
    4. A hypersonic glide vehicle
    5. Artificial Intelligence
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/t...ts-say-n848596
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  14. #74
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    Imagine all the fun Beijing's operatives can have staging out of this place.

    One of the symbols of New York luxury is now in the hands of Beijing.
    The Chinese government has taken control of Anbang Insurance Group, a Beijing-based conglomerate that has aggressively acquired overseas companies and properties including the Waldorf Astoria in New York City. The move highlights the complexities the US faces as more and more Chinese companies—often with opaque ownership structures—attempt to purchase stateside companies. An ostensibly private holding can, seemingly overnight, change status.
    https://qz.com/1214009/new-yorks-wal...se-government/
    Last edited by AdamG; 02-23-2018 at 04:32 PM. Reason: Needed a verb
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    A prominent Chinese lawyer, Li Baiguang died Monday in the Chinese city of Nanjing under "mysterious" circumstances, according to Bob Fu, a US-based activist and Christian pastor who has known the lawyer for over 10 years.
    Li was admitted to the No. 81 Military Hospital with a minor stomach ache, but had been otherwise healthy, Fu said, citing a relative of Li's. He was declared dead hours later from liver complications, according to the activist.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...upporters-say/

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  16. #76
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    China's military leadership has pledged its support to Russia as tensions between Moscow and the West further deteriorate into diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions and dueling defense drills.

    In his first visit to Russia, newly appointed Chinese Defense Minister Wei Feng attended the seventh Moscow International Security Conference accompanied by a delegation of other high-level military officials. Emphasizing that his trip was coordinated directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Wei said that he had two major messages for Russia at a time when both nations were attempting to modernize their armed forces and strengthen their hands in global affairs in spite of U.S. fears.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-mil...161427016.html
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  17. #77
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    http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the...t-fights-24449

    China Has Big Plans to Win the Next War It Fights

    Numerous Chinese military publications indicate that the PLA sees war as no longer a contest between adversarial units, arms, services, or even specific weapons platforms, but rather a contest among numerous adversarial operational systems. This is referred to in PLA literature as systems confrontation and is considered the “basic operational mode of joint campaigns under informatized conditions.” “Informatized,” according to a recent U.S. Department of Defense report, is the PLA term for “real-time data-networked command.”
    Not entirely new, but it is of interest that the Chinese are increasingly adapting the Western way of war, a way of war I doubt they are culturally inclined to excel at. Their systems of systems of approach appears logical if they're focused on preventing an adversary from projecting decisive force, so they get points in the science aspect of this strategy. Whether their commanders are capable of executing the art of war (Sun Tzu will roll over in his grave) in a fluid and chaotic situation remains questionable. From an offensive perspective, this strategy has its limitations. After the aggressor destroys an adversary's systems (as depicted in the article), the adversary can (e.g. Iraq) result to a more primitive form of warfare where high end technological advantages in cyber, space, air, etc., will prove less useful and certainly not decisive. Scientific theorists tend to under estimate an adversary's will to resist because they assume everyone conducts risk calculus using the same logic.

    China may have big plans to win, but big plans can and do fail big also.

  18. #78
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    Default From a European "armchair"

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    China Has Big Plans to Win the Next War It Fights

    Not entirely new....China may have big plans to win, but big plans can and do fail big also.
    Bill,

    Sometimes I enjoy RAND's product, this one failed my simple test. It is more alarmist than predictive. Plus as you neatly say 'Not entirely new'. From my faraway armchair I do wonder how the PLA can successfully adapt to win.

    How many national armies do not have such plans and assumptions? The PLA is no different, although I would wager it is a far more conformist culture than most Western militaries in peacetime and possibly when at war or engaged in combat operations.

    Yes the PLA may have studied waging war etc. Aided no doubt by the relatively large numbers studying openly abroad: a couple each year @ Oxford University CCW, a good number at Australian military colleges and a large number doing their PhD in the USA. How many wars or combat operations have the PLA been engaged in since Korea? Assisting North Vietnam, a border war with Vietnam, border clashes with the USSR, some UN ops and sometimes "hot".
    davidbfpo

  19. #79
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    Default China has a new friend: Vanuatu

    This Sydney Morning Herald article's full title is: China eyes Vanuatu military base in plan with global ramifications.

    It opens with:
    China has approached Vanuatu about building a permanent military presence in the South Pacific in a globally significant move that could see the rising superpower sail warships on Australia’s doorstep. Fairfax Media can reveal there have been preliminary discussions between the Chinese and Vanuatu governments about a military build-up in the island nation. While no formal proposals have been put to Vanuatu's government, senior security officials believe Beijing’s plans could culminate in a full military base.
    Both governments deny this.
    Link:https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...09-p4z8j9.html

    The map of 'Bases and potential bases: China, US and India' is well different and spot the US base that is missing?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 1 Week Ago at 10:54 AM. Reason: 82,704v
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    Default Australia has an old friend: Racist BS

    The Vanuatu Daily Post's article's full title is: Want To Lead In The Pacific? Try Listening First

    The Chinese Bases folderol is just the latest chorus in a litany of Australian indifference to Pacific voices. Every time some tendentious prat opens their mouth and starts telling the Pacific that what’s good for Australia is obviously good for us, the entire region sighs.

    That jolt you just felt was a collective eye roll that nearly tipped the island.

    Can we get something clear? If you want us to listen to you, you’ve got to listen to us.

    http://dailypost.vu/opinion/want-to-...35cb27275.html
    Last edited by Backwards Observer; 6 Days Ago at 11:47 PM. Reason: it was only a joke

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