The China–Pakistan Axis Asia’s New Geopolitics

[Ray]

What are China's options here?

China is concerned about making certain her strategic rise in the world and thus to safeguard the uninterrupted flow of strategic resources from the world to China. She is pragmatic to realise that the Straits of Malacca is a chokepoint that can be interdicted to the detriment of her strategic goals.

Being far reaching in insight, China has been assiduous in building up her allies who could ensure a lifeline into China even if the Straits of Malacca is interdicted. To that end, China has Myanmar and Pakistan on her side for access to the Indian Ocean via Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea respectively and while she has built the transportation and oil link from Myanmar, she is on the way to do so through Pakistan from Geadar.

Therefore, Pakistan is central to her strategic interest. It also gives China the inbuilt flexibility in case of disruption in Myanmar.

Hence, China is in a Catch 22 situation vis--vis Pakistan as far as the Uighur terrorists are concerned.

Without going into details, suffice it to say, that for more than half of its years of Independence, Pakistan has been ruled by its powerful military, It is no secret that even when there was/is a democratically elected Govt, it is the Army that calls the shots in Pakistan.

In the recent past, thanks to Zia, the fundamentalist organisations and Mullahs have come into the power play.

The powerful army because of their internal contradiction of wanting to control the fundamentalists that they themselves have created and yet wanting to use them as non state strategic assets, finds itself at sixes and sevens. It appears no matter which entity of governance or chaos, if you will, wants to bring some method in the madness, they just cant. They are caught in a bind.

The unfortunate situation where the fundamentalists have Govt support is clear from this BBC report:

Pakistan 'gave funds' to group on UN terror blacklist

Pakistan's Punjab province government gave about $1m (£674,000) last year to institutions linked to a charity on a UN terror blacklist, it has emerged.
http://www.bbc.com/news/10334914

Therefore, who should China appeal to? The non functional democratic Govt, the powerful Army who are at the mercy of the fundamentalists, the fundamentalist, the Mullahs or who?

The only option for China is to ''seal the border'', but sealing is only a placebo since the borders are always porous and the determined slip through to chaos mayhem and havoc.

[Dayuhan]

China is concerned about making certain her strategic rise in the world and thus to safeguard the uninterrupted flow of strategic resources from the world to China. She is pragmatic to realise that the Straits of Malacca is a chokepoint that can be interdicted to the detriment of her strategic goals.

Being far reaching in insight, China has been assiduous in building up her allies who could ensure a lifeline into China even if the Straits of Malacca is interdicted. To that end, China has Myanmar and Pakistan on her side for access to the Indian Ocean via Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea respectively and while she has built the transportation and oil link from Myanmar, she is on the way to do so through Pakistan from Geadar.

Speaking of trying to replace the Straits of Malacca with the proposed links through Myanmar and Gwadar is like speaking of replacing the aorta with a couple of capillaries. Look at the volume of material coming through the straits, not only resources flowing to China but the equally important flow of manufactured products coming from China, and compare that to the actual capacity of the Pakistan and Myanmar links and you get a sense of the disproportion. These efforts are potentially useful to China, but they are not game changers, especially as any power that could interdict the Straits of Malacca (realistically that means the US, or possibly India) could also interdict traffic in and out of Myanmar or Gwadar. China could potentially develop routes for energy inflow that would be much more difficult to target, but that involves pipeline routes direct from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, efforts that are much larger and much more important than the Myanmar pipeline and the proposed Gwadar pipeline. They would not, of course, resolve the problem of moving Chinese exports in a potential conflict situation.

I don't think it's accurate to say that Pakistan is central to Chinese strategic interests, not least because the Chinese understand that Pakistan is an unreliable partner and would not be stupid enough to build Pakistan into a central role in any strategic plan. Pakistan is a potentially useful asset in any possible conflict with the US or India, and also a potential liability as a fefuge and point of moral and physical resupply for destabilizing elements in China. That puts the Chinese in a situation where they have to seek a balance that will inevitably be imperfect, and it will be interesting to see how they proceed.

[Ray]

The issue is something that is better than nothing.

China is not putting all eggs in one basket and instead is organising options to keep the resources required by her reaching her.

Pakistan is one of the options that surely assist the aim.

Oil is not the only issue that China finds as solely essential.

It is not merely oil pipelines that China has built in Myanmar and Pakistan. China is building multi access options - pipeline, railways and highways.

[Dayuhan]

China is not putting all eggs in one basket and instead is organising options to keep the resources required by her reaching her.

Exactly, that is why Pakistan is not "central" to Chinese strategic interests. Not irrelevant, but not central either. I think the Chinese can see the inherent instability and unreliability of Pakistan clearly enough that they will not allow themselves to become strategically dependent on Pakistan in any way.

Oil is not the only issue that China finds as solely essential.

Very true. Some people focus exclusively on commodity imports as a strategic issue, while overlooking China's equally imperative need to maintain transit of its merchandise exports... which are entirely reliant on container shipping, and given geography are likely to remain so. Again, it's a question of scale, and some find it difficult to envision the number of trucks or railway cars it would take to move the cargo of a single container ship. The world's goods move by ship for good reasons.

[Ray]

Exactly, that is why Pakistan is not "central" to Chinese strategic interests. Not irrelevant, but not central either. I think the Chinese can see the inherent instability and unreliability of Pakistan clearly enough that they will not allow themselves to become strategically dependent on Pakistan in any way.

Apart from Chinese strategic interest, to include contain India through the 'string or pearls; including a port in Ceylon, the Chinese ongoing interest and assistance is important to keep Pakistan in line with Chinese interest; more so, when the US is losing its preoccupation with Pakistan after quitting Afghanistan.

By keeping Pakistan afloat (its economy is in the pits), China will have a hold over Pakistan over the Uighurs making a serious damage to China's sovereignty, since a large majority of the Uighur Hajjis vanish into Pakistan to create havoc in Xinjiang.

Very true. Some people focus exclusively on commodity imports as a strategic issue, while overlooking China's equally imperative need to maintain transit of its merchandise exports... which are entirely reliant on container shipping, and given geography are likely to remain so. Again, it's a question of scale, and some find it difficult to envision the number of trucks or railway cars it would take to move the cargo of a single container ship. The world's goods move by ship for good reasons.

Would the number of trucks and railway cars be an impediment to a country flush with funds and on the go?

[Dayuhan]

Apart from Chinese strategic interest, to include contain India through the 'string or pearls; including a port in Ceylon, the Chinese ongoing interest and assistance is important to keep Pakistan in line with Chinese interest; more so, when the US is losing its preoccupation with Pakistan after quitting Afghanistan.

By keeping Pakistan afloat (its economy is in the pits), China will have a hold over Pakistan over the Uighurs making a serious damage to China's sovereignty, since a large majority of the Uighur Hajjis vanish into Pakistan to create havoc in Xinjiang.

That may be the intention, but it's likely to prove a complicated effort in reality. Pakistan has limited control over its own frontier areas, and the assumption that keeping Pakistan's economy afloat would yield concessions on control of unruly elements has not always worked out for other countries.

Would the number of trucks and railway cars be an impediment to a country flush with funds and on the go?

Absolutely. Again, geography is a harsh mistress. Take out a map, locate China's major industrial regions, locate it's major export markets. Like it or not, they are tied to the sea.

[Ray]

To integrate the Western China, which is industry deficient, China will have to address industrial growth there to pacify the lot there.

China looks at the long term benefits and not short term gains.