I heard/read somwhere about a month ago that China was going to budget 5 billion for road projects. I wonder how long it will be until they fully project force into the sea lanes. They've been in space already.
Anchors Away
I heard/read somwhere about a month ago that China was going to budget 5 billion for road projects. I wonder how long it will be until they fully project force into the sea lanes. They've been in space already.
I find it instructive whenever people warn of an impending China threat to compare defense budgets. China is, even if you triple their official budget, less than $100 bn. The latest U.S. defense budget request comes in at $481.4 bn --- and this completely excludes the cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns at $140 bn.
Frankly we should welcome China attempting to compete with us as a conventional peer. They will never match us and will end up wasting enormous resources trying to. Unfortunately I doubt they're that stupid.
Sales Brochure
I will look at this more but the tone of the Executive Summary strikes me as hyped when it comes to expansion. What I have read so far reads more like a glossy sales brochure than an assessment.
China has long been in Africa and in many ways was more effective at it than the US or the USSR because the Chinese tended toward a low-tech, man power intensive model. In contrast, the US talks low tech and adaptable project models that better meet local needs but in securing funding we often get driven toward high (or higher than the Chinese) tech solutions.
Cuturally Communist Chinese models for communal agriculture in many cases better matched cultural tendencies even when they failed dramatically in execution.
And even during the height of the Cold War, U.S. "allies" like Mobutu were more than willing to drag their skirts in front of the Chinese to prompt renewed fervor among their Western suitors. Witness this paragraph:
The PRC was also a player in those arenas as well as in others.Moreover, Beijing believes this history compares very favorably with the poor political and security legacy left to Africa by the U.S.-Soviet superpower rivalry of the Cold War era that stoked wars in places like Angola, Mozambique, and Ethiopia and created alliances with corrupt strongmen like Zaire’s President Mobutu and Somalia’s President Barre.
Overall I am not impressed. CSIS is usually much better.
Tom
3 Gorge Dam
Another past reference cited it would produce 9 times the output of Hoover Dam when fully functional. That's alot of juice and it won't all go to commercial factories for consumer goods - some of the benefit has to go to China's military and naval expansion to my way of thinking seems the logical choice, but that's an aside from the Africa issue at hand. I can't see them wasting resources on look-good-feel-good PR like money for AIDS, but I could be wrong on that too. Where I was at in W. AFrica they had built a soccer stadium that was never used and they quickly saw there wasn't any benefit from being much involved with that small nation.
The Jamestown Foundation's China Brief, 7 Feb 07:
Beijing’s Great Leap Outward: Power Projection with Chinese Characteristics
...Western reports of Hu’s on-going eight-nation African tour have focused on China’s anxiety to secure a long-term, reliable supply of oil and other strategic commodities; African crude already accounts for nearly a third of China’s total oil imports. The Chinese leadership has inked new deals on oil and other minerals with several countries, including Cameroon, Sudan, Zambia and South Africa. Equally important, however, has been Beijing’s eagerness to demonstrate the impressive sway of Chinese economic and diplomatic prowess. During the FOCAC as well as the current trip, Beijing has written off hundreds of millions of dollars of debt owed by 33 African nations. China’s direct investment in 49 African countries is close to $7 billion. While meeting Zambian leaders earlier this week, Hu vigorously defended his country’s assertive strategy toward Africa against charges of “Chinese-style neo-colonialism.” “China is eagerly expanding imports from Africa,” the president said, adding that tariffs for African products had been drastically curtailed. Hu declared that Chinese aid and investment in areas ranging from infrastructure and mining to hospitals and schools would be increased. The Africans and the Chinese, Hu said, would always remain “good friends, good partners and good brothers”.
It is true that an increasing number of African politicians—particularly those in the opposition—have protested against China’s “exploitation” of Africa’s resources and the ill-treatment of local laborers by the Chinese owners of African-based firms. Hu and his foreign policy advisers, however, are convinced that as far as the “mainstream elite”—particularly the authoritarian rulers and businessmen in several countries—are concerned, China has already displaced the United States as Africa’s big brother. Indeed, one of the main purposes of Hu’s trip is to demonstrate that China’s African policy is on par with Western norms. Thus in Liberia, the president inspected Chinese peacekeeping forces billeted there under the auspices of the United Nations. In Sudan, where China has been accused of supplying arms to government forces committing atrocities in Darfur, Hu urged President Omar al-Bashir to do more to permit a UN-sponsored initiative aimed at halting the genocide in Darfur. Western diplomatic sources in Beijing noted that a key reason behind Beijing’s newfound eagerness to participate in UN-organized peacekeeping missions is to demonstrate China’s rising clout, particularly when juxtaposed against the declining influence of the United States in Africa and the Middle East....
Re:
Poole's latest book, The Terrorist Trail, goes into into detail about a Jihadist/African/China nexus that has been developing for a period of time that I find to be very interesting and credible.
Of course, being a Poole book, it veers totally off into another vein and now I am reading a study of the Southern African conflicts starting with the Zulu warriors, the Boer campaigns, the Selous Scouts and that totally hooah SADF strategic recon unit and how they operated.
I really love his books but just wonder if they might be better broken into seperate policy papers or smaller more focused individual books...Don't get me wrong, I love his books, and would love to meet the guy but they just seem to be oddly packaged...I digress... sorry!
TWQ, Summer 07, The Tenuous Hold of China Inc. in Africa
...China’s “corporate engagement” strategy in Africa consists of several elements. Top Chinese leaders and diplomats create a favorable environment for Chinese investment in Africa through a mixture of prestige diplomacy, economic assistance, and diplomatic support for African leaders. At home, China’s economic bureaucratic agencies encourage Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to increase their investment and trade with Africa. China’s SOEs implement Beijing’s aid projects, extract strategic natural resources for export back to China or for profit in the international marketplace, and expand their manufacturing bases in China. Chinese workers staff Chinese projects efficiently and at low cost, and Chinese migrants build trade networks and supply chains linking China and Africa. At least, that is the idea.....
Good read on China
Check out Josh Kurlantzick's new book Charm Offensive for a good read on China's use of diplomacy, trade incentives, cultural exchange, and various assistance packages to change its image and win friends in Africa and elsewhere.
Not that published policy and actual policy match, but if you haven't seen China's 2006 Africa Policy, it's worth skimming. The policy is in six parts:
1. Africa's Position and Role
2. China's Relations with Africa
3. China's African Policy
4. Enhancing All-round Cooperation Between China and Africa
5. Forum on China-Africa Cooperation And Its Follow-up Actions
6. China's Relations with African Regional Organizations
Also noteworthy is China's intentional use of peacekeeping missions to up regional and global profile.
It would seem that the author's new book, Dragon Days, evaluates this relationship in greater detail. From his site (emphasis mine)...Originally Posted by bismark17
Given the quality of The Last 100 Yards, Tiger's Way, and Gunny Poole's other works, I'm looking forward to reading his thoughts on this subject.Within Dragon Days are two studies: (1) how a rising superpower may be encouraging Islamic insurgency to screen its own Maoist expansion; and (2) what America must do to curtail either. Ostensibly, that power also provides foreign aid to the affected countries. But, the corporations involved are little more than extensions of its army. Thus, those countries are obviously at risk. The U.S. military is ill-prepared for so subtle a confrontation. Instead of occupying such countries or training their armies, it must start to deploy "foreign aid workers in the law enforcement sector." Then, by the thousands, specially trained squad-sized units could anchor widely dispersed Combined Action Platoons. Their mission would be to help indigenous police and soldiers to reestablish local security. Without that security, there can be no viable counterinsurgency or operating democracy. Part Two of this book shows what U.S. infantrymen must know about criminal investigative procedure. Part Three contains the unconventional warfare (UW) tactical techniques they must practice. The latter are new to the literature and not covered by any U.S. military manual. They should allow tiny contingents of GIs to slip away unhurt whenever they get cut off and surrounded. Without this new kind of training, their only hope would be massive bombardment in, and forceful extraction from, heavily populated areas. Such things do little to win the hearts and minds of a population. This book provides the training and operations blueprint for winning an unconventionally fought world war. It also points to a hidden adversary.
Last edited by Sage; 11-13-2007 at 04:27 AM.
You are joking right? China encouraging Jihadists in Africa? What planet did this idea come from?
I have lived in sub-saharan Africa, operated there, and undertaken years of post grad study on Africa. Some facts that do not sit well with your post:
1. Zimbabwe is not an Islamist nation - over 90 percent of the population are practising Christians, the rest subscribe to 'traditional beliefs'. Chinese influence on the Indian Ocean littoral has nothing to do with Islam and everything to do with trade and access.
2. China is far more worried about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism than the US is - China has significant Muslim ethnic minorities that are actively pursuing seperatist agendas. The idea that China would seek to encourage the spread of Islamic fundamentalism is, frankly, ridiculous. They have more to lose, literally, than many other nations .
3. China's interest in Africa essentially distils down to a couple of compelling imperatives:
a) energy security,
b) sourcing minerals to keep their economic boom 'booming'; and
c)denying Taiwan diplomatic access / recognition.
I would strongly recommend that your paragon spends some time researching some facts before he writes more inaccurate drivel.
Last edited by Mark O'Neill; 11-13-2007 at 10:48 AM. Reason: some spelling
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