Everybody wants something, and they all want it right now. So what? Why should the US or "the West" want to run around giving everyone what they want?Originally Posted by KingJaja
There's an odd misconception running around that there's some sort of popularity contest going on in Africa that the US or "the West" needs to win, or that there's some sort of competition going on to win the right to invest in Africa or send aid to Africa. Of course that's reinforced by the vague paranoia we here from those who are always worried about the Chinese "getting ahead" in Africa... as if there was a race going on.
Chinese aid to and investment in Africa is no threat at all to the US, and in some ways is rather useful to the US. There's no race or competition that the US needs to worry about losing. How it works out for Africa remains to be seen, but again that's no issue for the US either way.
Of course western aid and investment is always going to be uncoordinated. Aid comes through a multiplicity of governments, NGOs, and multilateral agencies, each putting its own agenda ahead of the interests of aid recipients. Investment is up to the private sector and each company makes its own decisions, it's not coordinated among companies or between private and public sector.
The Chinese are pursuing a long-term neocolonial enterprise through a coordinated aid/investment program. Their "private sector" is of course largely under government control so the whole program is aimed at a goal and coordinated. Of course it will be more effective at pursuing that goal than an uncoordinated program that has no cohesive goal at all. Again, whether that long-term goal will be to Africa's advantage remains to be seen.
Of course the construction of infrastructure is a necessary part of a neocolonial enterprise: have to facilitate the extraction of resources and the distribution of one's own projects. Western aid/investment does not pursue any similar coherent goal, because each of the numerous institutions involved has its own goals.
Any government aid or investment program from any source is designed to advance the interests of the donor or investor... that should be assumed from the start, whether you deal with Chinese, Indian, US, European, anyone.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Then what's the purpose of this thread titled China's expanding role in Africa? I did not initiate the thread and some people in the small wars community assumed it is important enough to merit some discussion.
What exactly are we supposed to be talking about on this thread?
We could talk about whether China's expanding role in Africa is or should be a matter of concern, and if so to whom. I can imagine it being a matter of concern to Africans, but I see no reason why it should be one to Americans.
Last edited by Dayuhan; 03-04-2012 at 01:31 PM.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
I agree it's not really a threat. The Chinese are responsible for a major portion of global manufacturing growth, and as a consequence they need to tap some untapped resources. Some of which happen to be in Africa.
There'll only be a problem once they begin to actually cut us from our supply.
"Our" supply? What supply - of anything - is "ours", beyond what's actually within our borders?
I'd say the Chinese are doing the west a favor. They're investing in expanding resource production in environments where most western companies won't go due to political and security risks. By doing so they're bringing new supply into markets that would otherwise not be there, and thus alleviating price pressure.
None of these materials are unique to Africa; there's supply all over the globe. Nobody is going to be "cut off" from supply, though if demand exceeds supply the price may go higher than some users want to pay.
Imagine, for example, that the Chinese manage to pump 8mbpd of oil from African investments. Even if every drop goes to China, the US and all other importers still benefit, because that's 8mbpd that the Chinese won't be buying from non-African sources. As long as that oil comes onto the market, it alleviates the overall supply/demand imbalance and reduces upward pressure on prices. Since the chances are that if the Chinese don't develop those resources nobody will, they are essentially doing all other importers a huge favor: they take all the risk, we share in the benefit. Good on 'em, I say.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
But this discussion board is dominated by Westerners and one of the major reasons why China is up for discussion here is because China is perceived to be a threat to the West. If Brazil or India were doing exactly what China is doing today in Africa (India may follow that route in a few years), the level of interest on this board will be minimal.
Also remember I am one of the very few Africans on this discussion board. So when this topic was brought up, I doubt the African perspective was what the initiator had in mind.
Trust me, the U.S. Americans will manage to feel threatened by Brazil and India as well.
32% of them were polled to feel threatened by Iran, and another of their main worries is about the dysfunctional North Korea. They even feel threatened by some idiot being a loudmouth in starving Somalia!
They will also feel threatened by Russia if it ever has a real manufacturing comeback post-Putin.
Hey, they even invaded tiny Grenada! Grenada! And Panama!
All it takes to become a threat to the U.S. is to not be allied with them and to have an AK and a loud mouth or some correspondence with someone who qualifies as such!
They're certainly no Turks, who feel comfortable in one of the 'hottest' regions on earth.
We also invaded Europe -- Europe! -- once...
Fair assessment, not far off at all. We do preemptions.
Not nearly so good an assessment on that one. Don't pay much attention to the US media, we don't, they're really sort of breathlessly wide eyed -- and clueless....They're certainly no Turks, who feel comfortable in one of the 'hottest' regions on earth.
This is exactly why frauds like Saleh in Yemen can play the US like a fiddle.
Westerners, and Americans in particular, see all kinds of things as threats. See my signature line for a suggestion as to why that might be the case. I don't speak for America or "the West", and I personally think a great deal of this "threat perception" is hyperventilated nonsense. All I've said here is that I don't think China's expanding role in Africa is a threat or a problem for anyone, except possibly for Africans. If anyone thinks otherwise I'd be curious to hear why.
Possibly, though as Fuchs says the American capacity for paranoia should not be underestimated. Worth considering as well that if the US, Britain, or France was doing exactly what China is doing today in Africa, Africans would likely be up in arms and hyperventilating about the return of the colonial powers. Selective perception is widespread in this world...
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
The problem is that the French and British (and by extension the Americans - wazungu), have done it before. The Chinese haven't and are unlikely to (in spite of the dominant Western narrative of them having horns on their heads).
For example, the Chinese are very unlikely to mess up Southern Sudan and Angola the same way Shell messed up the Niger Delta. To vainly hope for them to pull off a Shell in Angola merely exposes an illogical bias and a visceral dislike bordering on racism.
Just because the wazungu do have horns on their heads doesn't mean the Chinese can't have horns as well.... and focusing on the threat in the past rather than the one in your future might be seen as a departure from the path of wisdom. Bad as the wazungu were, they're history. The Chinese are still incoming.
I'd advise being suspicious of any outsider who wants a piece of what you've got, and equally suspicious of most insiders... but I'm cynical by nature.
I don't think the Chinese will mess up in the same way that any of the wazungu did. I think they'll come up with their own unique ways of messing up. I'm not saying I hope they'll mess up, I just think they probably will. It would be lovely if everything worked out well for both parties... lovely but unlikely. Human nature is what it is.
PS: If you expect the Chinese to respect the environment and the human rights of Africans, you might want to look first at the way they treat their own people and environment. Do you expect them to behave better in Africa than they have at home?
Last edited by Dayuhan; 03-05-2012 at 12:18 PM.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
I can only speak about Nigeria, but if another group of people attempt to mess up our environment the way the likes of Chevron, Shell and Total have done for the past fifty years - a lot of blood will be spilled.I don't think the Chinese will mess up in the same way that any of the wazungu did. I think they'll come up with their own unique ways of messing up. I'm not saying I hope they'll mess up, I just think they probably will. It would be lovely if everything worked out well for both parties... lovely but unlikely. Human nature is what it is.
PS: If you expect the Chinese to respect the environment and the human rights of Africans, you might want to look first at the way they treat their own people and environment. Do you expect them to behave better in Africa than they have at home?
Some Chinese have already been sent packing here - they've got the message. We are not stupid, we actually learn from our lessons.
Jaja,
Forgive my ignorance when it comes to those oil folks - Why haven't they been sent packing already ? I don't want to strike comparisons with the late Mobutu and his financial wizardry (which is why half of the Lebanese and Chinese never left Zaire), but I don't understand why Nigeria and her people don't go at it alone and get all the oil hungry dogs out.
Your insight ?
If you want to blend in, take the bus
I dont pay too much attention to how it is framed, but the anecdotes themselves are interesting in this book, and relate to this topic: http://www.amazon.com/Stealth-Nation.../dp/037542489X
I am always struck by how little "government" there seems to be in China. Is that likely to remain the case or will the elite eventually establish much tighter control over the gigantic informal economy?
I take it that the current situation does mean that China can do less coordinated intervening than past powers. Thats probably a good thing in some ways; the environment gets screwed either way.
Incidentally, India seems to have a "worst of both worlds" deal in this matter. The state is not competent enough to do much good, but its competent enough to get in the way of free-lance crooks/enterpreneurs much more than the Chinese state does..
The Chinese wanted to strike a huge deal in Nigeria, but the unions and the communities kicked against it because the unions weren't sure about their labour practices and the communities were not clear on their environmental practices. Secondly, are you aware that Shell was barred from operating in Ogoni land for several years, not by the Nigerian government but by the Ogoni people?Jaja,
Forgive my ignorance when it comes to those oil folks - Why haven't they been sent packing already ? I don't want to strike comparisons with the late Mobutu and his financial wizardry (which is why half of the Lebanese and Chinese never left Zaire), but I don't understand why Nigeria and her people don't go at it alone and get all the oil hungry dogs out.
Your insight ?
In today's Nigeria, if the community gives you (the oil and gas company) a tough time, there is very little you can do as the Government is too stretched to provide you with 24/7 protection - and we haven't gotten to the stage of bringing in Blackwater to guard oil installations. (A very unwise move).
Today, the Chinese (not being stupid) have seen how Shell has tarnished its reputation in the Niger Delta. They want the oil, so they are extremely careful about making the same mistakes as Shell.
Some of the biggest crooks Nigeria has ever seen are Indian (that's a topic for another day - read up on the Vaswani brothers). India is also an extremely corrupt country (read up on the 2G licencing scandal). So any impression that the Indians are angels of light is mistaken.Incidentally, India seems to have a "worst of both worlds" deal in this matter. The state is not competent enough to do much good, but its competent enough to get in the way of free-lance crooks/enterpreneurs much more than the Chinese state does..
The Indians have also being doing this sort for far longer than the Chinese and they have a much better appreciation of the landscape. They aren't that much under the spotlight because they are from a democratic nation.
Stan,
One more thing, the saving grace for many of these oil companies is that most of the new acreage is offshore (with an FPSO you don't have to worry about pesky militants, you simply offload to waiting tankers).
In fact, many of the majors are seeking to divest their onshore holdings (selling them to marginal players) - the stress of dealing with militants and communities is just a bit too much.
However, in future militants could jolly well operate offshore. Now if the US Navy wants to protect the Bonga field, well its up to them!
Militants actually struck 120km offshore in the past. (2008)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aRx1aLUJHgT0June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it shut down the Bonga oil field in Nigeria because of a militant attack, the first time the deepwater facility 120 kilometers (75 miles) offshore has come under assault.
``There has been an armed attack on the Bonga field production unit,'' Shell spokesman Rainer Winzenried said in an interview from The Hague. Bonga crude shipments were scheduled to average 190,000 barrels a day in June, based on loading schedules. Attacks by militants previously focused on onshore and shallow fields in the creeks of the Niger river delta.
``It's certainly of a different tactical order,'' Antony Goldman, an independent U.K.-based analyst specializing in Nigeria, said by telephone from London. Goldman said he was surprised the militants had the ``hardware'' to carry out such an attack.
Nigerian Navy spokesman Henry Babalola said three people were kidnapped from a private security vessel during the Bonga attack. Gunmen in three speedboats also attacked a vessel near Pennington and abducted the ship's captain, a U.S. national, Babalola said by phone.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta claimed responsibility for the Bonga attack and urged oil companies to evacuate foreign staff from Nigeria.
The group released the ship's captain, a U.S. national, at 4:45 p.m. local time, MEND spokesman Jomo Gbomo said in an e- mailed statement.
King, you misunderstood my comment. I made no claim about Indians being angels. I just pointed out that the Indian govt is more able to obstruct its citizens-entrepreneurs-crooks than the Chinese govt. No moral superiority was implied (though one may or may not be present).
And why the italics on democratic? By current world standards, India is definitely a democracy. And of course, compared to China, it is clearly far more democratic.
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