ICG, 12 Feb 07: Turkmenistan After Niyazov
...The Turkmen government still seems uncertain about its own future. Prior to the event, many foreign commentators – among them Crisis Group – speculated that Niyazov’s sudden departure, however it might come, could trigger a bloody struggle for power. Thus far, this has not materialised. Berdimuhammedov’s and Rejepov’s bid for power appears to have been planned well, and they have so far marginalised any threats. Questions remain about long-term stability, however. The borders are still sealed, and the security services have reportedly ramped up their internal vigilance. The domestic situation is reported to be calm, but it is impossible to say how long this will be the case. The very way in which Berdimuhammedov came to power may work against him and his allies, providing grounds for challengers to question their legitimacy. Delays or failure to implement promised reforms could lead to unrest. Cash flow will be vital, both to fund reforms and to buy off potential rivals....