Recognizing Distinct Types of Insurgency - "Know the type of conflict you are in."

[TheCurmudgeon]

COIN should be limited to domestic operations only. Anytime one thinks they are doing "COIN" abroad they are likely acting in ways that will make the underlying problem worse for their efforts. This is true regardless of how inept the host governance is, or how non-existent it is. If you don't plan to stay and force the place and the people who live their to submit to your governance, then you are not the COIN force. Making that one small fix in US COIN doctrine would save us Trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, and tons of influence around the globe.

I had to stare at this paragraph a long time with my head slightly askew while years of Army training butted heads with logic. Then, as my Army training lost the battle, I came to the conclusion that you are right.

I guess if we are doing COIN we are doing it really small and in an advisory capacity, assuming it is a true revolutionary insurgency and not an invasion masked as an insurgency (Ukraine) and it has not reached the point where the insurgents have declared a seperate state (ISIS). Am I reading you correctly?

[Bob's World]

For me one must apply the flagpole test.

Go the capital of the place you are at to deal with an insurgency, find the tallest flagpole and look to the top of that pole. If it is the flag of your nation, you are conducting COIN, but if is the flag of anyone else, you are not.

COIN is not unlike parenting. If you are at home dealing with your own children you are parenting. But if you go to a neighbor's home to help them with their children you are not parenting. To think you were parenting would lead to a disaster of undermining their role as parents and regardless of how good your intentions or actions, would probably not leave a functional family behind when you leave to go home.

We understand this intuitively in operations of the scale of a family - but for some reasons lose all common sense when we scale it to the national level, rationalize our actions with interests or threats, and label it "war."

But it is the same damn thing.

[Bob's World]

For the US, dealing with Ferguson effectively is COIN. Dealing with ISIL is not COIN for the US at all.

In fact, now that the Iraqi state has divided and a separate system of governance around ISIL has formed, it is not COIN for the state formerly known as Iraq either. It is truly, Civil War.

We love to use the term civil war as a measure of the scale of an insurgency, but that serves no purpose. When we use Civil War to identify when an insurgency has evolved so as to become a distinct system of governance, then it is helpful. What was once revolutionary non-war has become war. That in turn drives changes of strategy and tactics. The scale of operations, or the presence or absence of violence does not affect the nature of the problem. We focus on the wrong criteria.

Our current lexicon and distinctions have little strategic value or purpose.

[TheCurmudgeon]

We love to use the term civil war as a measure of the scale of an insurgency, but that serves no purpose. When we use Civil War to identify when an insurgency has evolved so as to become a distinct system of governance, then it is helpful. What was once revolutionary non-war has become war. That in turn drives changes of strategy and tactics. The scale of operations, or the presence or absence of violence does not affect the nature of the problem. We focus on the wrong criteria..

I agree - you cannot have a war without two clearly distinct entities; a clear "us" and "them". As long as we are all still "us," its not a war.

Our current lexicon and distinctions have little strategic value or purpose.

Yes, but the current lexicon has a larger budget attached to it.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Colonel,

How do you classify the post invasion phase? If it is Stability Operations, could some of the operational methods outlined in COIN adapted to a Stability Operation, assuming we are not planning on staying long enough to create a mini-merica.

[Bob's World]

Argh...not the "phase" word.

Better question, what is the natural human response to a foreign power invading their homeland and defeating their government and security forces? A blend of submission by some, collaboration by others, and resistance by the rest.

That means that those guys with the friendly faces welcoming you? They are high order traitors and opportunists in the eyes of most everyone else. The ones you'd actually respect are the ones who want to cut your throat. But we put the collaborators into power and then wonder why we are soon met with resistance insurgency against our foreign presence, and revolutionary insurgency against the de facto illegitimate regime we have put in power to serve our interests.

What do we call that phase? We delude ourselves that what we bring is so good, and that what we oppose is so evil, that there will be no resistance against us. We also believe that when we create a government that we think will be good for us and call it a democracy, there will be no revolution against it. But we are always wrong. Always.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Argh...not the "phase" word.

..

What do we call that phase? We delude ourselves that what we bring is so good, and that what we oppose is so evil, that there will be no resistance against us. We also believe that when we create a government that we think will be good for us and call it a democracy, there will be no revolution against it. But we are always wrong. Always.

Sir,

Don't think I am trying to inject COIN into other operations, but reality is that there will be something after the fight is done. I am a proponent of the WWII style Military Government until it can be turned over to civilian control. But I am not for the Bush/Rumsfeld "the locals can handle it" attitude that prevailed after we overthrew Saddam.

The Army is loath to accept this responsibility, even though it has been historically our job. "No, the Army fights and wins America's Wars, ... we do not enforce the peace!" Meanwhile, the Marine (the older and more mature fighting force) have been doing just this for years.

OK, now I am way off topic, but I think the concept needs to be a complete "soup to nuts" formula. No disrespect meant.