Should be repeated: ISIS has NO significant presence anywhere near Latakia, where Russian buildup in Syria is occurring.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
SO again the key question--why the Pantsir-S1 at all????
BreakingNews
The crash of an #Assad air force helicopter in #Aleppo is confirmed yesterday night.
Possibly downed by a missile (unconf.).
Should be repeated: ISIS has NO significant presence anywhere near Latakia, where Russian buildup in Syria is occurring.
SO again the key question--why the Pantsir-S1 at all????
"The Shady Family Behind America’s Iran Lobby"
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...y.html?via=ios …
Does anyone outside of Putin actually believe this?????
Russian arms to Syria prevent 'even bigger' refugee flow to Europe, says Putin http://tgr.ph/1ieJ45Y pic.twitter.com/sXoQEjOJWZ
So the savior of the world from IS is now the protector of refugees?????
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsRepo...ing-to-hamaNOW
Published: 15/09/2015 03:25 PM
Russia military reportedly deploying to Hama
A large convoy arrived in the central Syrian city Monday from Latakia.
BEIRUT – Russian personnel accompanied by a convoy of equipment have reportedly deployed to Hama in the latest sign of Moscow’s growing military buildup in Syria.
On Monday, opposition a large convoy arrived in the central Syrian city from Latakia, where the US says recent Russian moves indicate they are planning to set up “a forward air operating base.”
A Syrian newspaper close to the regime reported the convoy had transported Russian food and relief aid, while anti-Damascus outlets said Russian military officers and equipment had been sent into Hama.
An activist from Hama said he had received “information about the arrival of a delegation consisting of Russian officers and experts accompanied by the [Syrian] Defense Minister Fahd Jassem al-Freij [Monday] at Hama’s Al-Nawair Hotel.”
Suhaib al-Rahmoun told pro-opposition outlet Al-Souria Net that “over ten buses accompanied by several trucks loaded with equipment thought to belong to the Russian delegation reached the hotel.”
“The area around the hotel has seen a heavy security presence by regime forces, which have cordoned off the Real Estate Interests Building and closed the street leading to the hotel.”
In turn, Al-Souria Net’s correspondent in Hama said that regime forces had closed off all roads leading to the city’s central Al-Aasi Square.
The correspondent added that the city had seen a heavy deployment by security forces and an increase in the number of impromptu checkpoints, as well as car and pedestrian searches, and ID checks.
Another media activist from the city said that some areas near the hotel had been reopened late on Tuesday morning.
“Today after 10:00 am, pedestrians were allowed access to the roads near the hotel where the Russian delegation is [staying],” the activist who identified himself as “Saifeddin” told the outlet.
“The street leading to the hotel is [still] completely closed.”
“Several military vehicles can be seen and anti-terrorism forces, military police and the so-called ‘Desert Hawks’ militias are deployed in the area.”
Meanwhile, All4Syria reported that 15 buses packed with armed Russians had been spotted entering the Equestrian Club in southeastern Hama.
“The Equestrian Club has become a barracks for Russian nationals,” an activist told the pro-rebel outlet.
The pro-regime Al-Watan newspaper also reported on the convoy, but insisted it had transported a consignment of the humanitarian aid that Russia claimed it flew into Latakia on Saturday.
Hama Governor Ghassan Khalaf told the daily that 15 tons of aid had been trucked into Hama, including “various foodstuffs as well as kitchen utensils and equipment.”
Russia in recent weeks has been conducting a major military buildup in Syria amid a flurry of reports that Moscow is preparing to set up an airbase in the Latakia province to conduct airstrikes on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
AFP last Wednesday reported that Russia’s military activities have centered on the Bassel al-Assad International Airport south of the coastal city of Latakia.
The next day, Israel’s defense minister told reporters that Russian troops and technical advisors have been arriving in the country “for operating planes and combat helicopters.”
US Secretary of State John Kerry had earlier called his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to express his concern over the reports, while NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said a Russian buildup “will not contribute to solving the conflict.”
Moscow has downplayed the reports, with Lavrov saying Thursday that Russia’s arms shipments were merely the fulfillment of contracts with the Syrian government while its military trainers had been in the country for “many years.”
Again those "little green men" just keep showing up in the strangest of places--notice there has been not a single report in MSM of Russians troops headed to this area.
THE number of buses with armed Russians is exteremely interesting--if a bus takes say 30 per bus then this is a Russian BN on the move.
So if we take Crow Bats comments about limited air flights just were did the 300 or so Russian troops come from????
Especially since werstern MSM and even Crow Bat claims a far smaller number amount has arrived????
If we transpose the Ukrainian experinces with so called Russian "humanitarian aid" shipments which in the Ukraine are largely military resupply runs is it not interesting that the similar concept is being used in Syria--AND this is not non linear warfare playing out now in Syria??
There are two inherently critical cornerstones to Russian non linear warfare---weaponization of information and cyber warfare -this propaganda article was used to set the stage for Russian entry into Syria and we are not seeing Russian non linear warfare now in Syria????
http://www.rferl.org/content/why-rus.../27248094.html
Why Russian Propaganda Links Chechen Militants, IS, And Assad's Coastal Stronghold
By Joanna Paraszczuk
September 14, 2015
Over the weekend, reports emerged that Russian forces are expanding a military airport in Syria's coastal province of Latakia.
This comes amid more reports of a Russian military buildup near Latakia.
Two weeks before these reports broke, Life News, a tabloid-style Russian website with links to the security services, carried a story that appears to set the scene for these developments, warning of the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS) group in Latakia.
And in an emotional appeal to its Russian readers, it frames the "war on terror" in Latakia as an extension of Russia's own struggle against Islamic militancy in the North Caucasus.
Life News claimed IS has dispatched "natives of [Russia's North] Caucasus republics" to Latakia. "Among them are militants who took part in actions against the Russian Army during the Chechen campaigns, and then fled from Russia," it said. "Their skills aid in the development and implementation of operations in the Latakia heights."
Half-Truths
The Life News report is based on elements of truth that have been misinterpreted -- or twisted -- to tell a particular narrative.
It is true that there are several groups of Chechen militants based in the forests of Latakia (though Life News only refers to one). And three of those groups have leaders and fighters who are known to have fought against Russian forces as part of the Islamist insurgency in the North Caucasus.
Indeed, North Caucasus militants in Syria like to say that Latakia is "Syria's Caucasus." They joke that fighters feel at home there, because they can hide out in the forests and mountains.
The catch is that none of the Latakia Chechen groups is connected with IS.
The three main Chechen-led groups in the Latakia mountains are Ajnad al-Kavkaz (Soldiers of the Caucasus), Junud al-Sham (Soldiers of Syria), and a much smaller group, Tarkhan's Jamaat.
Ajnad al-Kavkaz is led by Abdul-Hakim al-Shishani (Hamzat Azhiyev), who is believed to be from Prigorodnoye, a town southeast of the Chechen capital, Grozny.
Azhiyev came to Syria via Turkey after losing several fingers from his left hand in an injury sustained during the armed insurgency against Russian government forces in the North Caucasus.
A media activist with Azhiyev's group told RFE/RL earlier this year that Azhiyev had not sworn an oath of allegiance to the North Caucasus militant group the Caucasus Emirate, but would fight alongside them if he were to return to Chechnya.
Junud al-Sham is led by the veteran ethnic Chechen militant Muslim al-Shishani (Murad Margoshvili) from Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, who fought alongside Arab foreign fighters in Chechnya.
Tarkhan's Jamaat is a much smaller group of fighters loyal to Chechen militant Tarkhan Ismailovich Gaziyev.
All three fight against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces alongside Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham -- factions that are opposed to IS.
Why Create An 'IS Threat' In Latakia?
The Life News claim that IS poses a threat in Latakia is part of Moscow's "grand narrative" about the Syrian conflict, according to which Assad is engaged in a war against extremist groups funded by external enemies.
Moscow has insisted that only the Syrian Army is capable of opposing these groups, chiefly IS. "Excluding the Syrian Army from the fight against IS is absurd," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on September 13.
Life News makes another assertion that is based on distorted facts but which reveals a larger truth about why Moscow is helping Assad shore up his military capabilities in Latakia.
Controlling the mountains of Latakia is "not the terrorists' goal," Life News says. Instead, the Chechen-led groups have advanced into Latakia to "advance from Idlib Province...and advance into Hama Province."
This claim is misleading. All three Chechen-led militant groups in Latakia have been entrenched there for well over a year before they took part in the Idlib offensives.
What is true is the claim that rebels from Idlib could advance on Latakia. That is a very real fear for Assad (and Moscow).
A key loyalist bastion, Latakia is the home of numerous Syrian government officials -- including Assad himself. And so far, although there have been Islamist rebel offensives here -- against the Armenian town of Kessab in 2014, for example -- Syrian government supporters have by and large felt safe there.
But that is changing.
Since taking Idlib city in March, Nusra-led fighters including the Chechen groups have advanced toward Latakia. In April they took Jisr al-Shughour, on the road between Latakia city and Aleppo.
The current focus of the battle is the Al-Ghab plain, a strategic area between Latakia, Hama, and Idlib provinces, which connects Idlib with the Latakia mountains.
If the rebels advance past Al-Ghab, Assad is in serious trouble. He cannot afford to undertake a strategic retreat from his heartland of Latakia, a fact Russia understands all too well.
Ahead of any Russian military build-up in Latakia, it is therefore convenient for Life News to conflate the presence of Chechen militants in that province with the IS threat -- even if the threat to Assad's stronghold does not come from IS.
https://news.vice.com/article/barrel...n-syrias-south
Barrel Bombs and Artillery Take Heavy Toll on Vital Rebel Offensive in Syria's South
By Tom Dale
September 15, 2015 | 7:28 pm
NOTICE no talk of the TOWs which they have been receiving in large numbers.....A powerful coalition of moderate Syrian rebel groups who receive covert backing from the West have renewed calls for a no-fly zone in the south of the country, as their offensive against government troops grinds to a crawl amid heavy bombardment.
The Southern Front is the largest force still to fight under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, and the dominant rebel formation in the city of Daraa, next to the Jordanian border. That places it within striking distance of the Syrian capital of Damascus.
The coalition is avowedly moderate and has publicly rejected coordination with Islamist militias, including al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, al Nusra.
More appealing still to Western observers, they have been winning. From late 2014 until early summer this year, they notched up a string of impressive victories, beating back forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.
In one early success, they took the hilltop stronghold of Tal al-Harra last October, overrunning an abandoned Russian intelligence base. An Assad-regime general who had made contact with the Southern Front purposely deployed his troops in a weak formation, before defecting in a fake ambush, designed to make it look like he had been killed. He was spirited to Amman, where he provided vital intelligence, leading to the capture of the base, according to the National newspaper.
The victory pointed to another of the Southern Front's assets: their relative moderation make them an attractive target for defectors from the Assad regime who would never consider supporting Islamists.
By this summer, analysts were feting the Southern Front. One called them Syria's "last, best hope." But then the offensive stalled.
"We faced a very strong defense from the regime because of the symbolic and strategic importance of the city," Southern Front spokesperson Issam al-Rayes told VICE News. "Daraa is 50 miles from the capital and was where the revolution began."
"As we started the operation the regime started heavily shelling the civilians in surrounding villages with barrel bombs and also targeted field hospitals as a collective punishment method," he added. " It was hard for us to continue with this brutal onslaught."
Between late June and early September, the Southern Front took just a few blocks inside Daraa city.
A VICE News film released last week follows one of the brigades that make up the Southern Front during this hard-fought battle. The film tells the story of Zakaria Aboud, the brigade's commander, who before the revolution was a plumber, and his fight to take the eastern suburbs of Daraa.
The documentary shows the punishing impact of air attacks and heavy artillery on a force with no air force of its own, and on the surrounding civilian population.
Rayes renewed calls for the international community to impose a no-fly zone over southern Syria, and said that the Southern Front would welcome ground-support airstrikes, similar to those which have been used to back the Kurds against Islamic State (IS) militants in the north.
"ISIS is the symptom of a cause, the cause is Assad," he said, using an alternative acronym for IS. "Dealing with the symptom without addressing the cause will not succeed and will be a waste of money as well as a waste of our blood."
"A no-fly zone will save civilian lives and will strengthen moderate opposition forces to address the cause of the problem: Assad. This is the way the west should be thinking about it, not the other way round," Rayes added.
But given that politicians in Britain and the US have ruled out direct intervention against the Assad regime, preferring to focus on IS, those calls are likely to go unheeded for now.
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond last week set out proposals to target only IS and said that he wanted to avoid becoming involved in "involved in complex three-way fights in north-west Syria where regime forces and other forces are involved," although the Southern Front itself fights only the regime.
Meanwhile, Britain and the US, along with several other allies in the region, are covertly involved in supporting the Southern Front through a Military Operations Centre (MOC) in Amman, it has been widely reported.
"Most sources report that each country that provides aid to the insurgency is represented in the MOC, but that major decisions are made by the United States, Jordan, and Gulf Arab countries supporting the insurgents," said Faysal Itani, a resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
"This support ranges from financial support, the provision of small arms and ammunition, strategic and tactical planning and advice, and the provision of resources to support aid provision and local governance in southern Syria."
This foreign backing was important in bringing together several rebel groups in 2014 to form the Southern Front.
Since that time, observers have welcomed the rebels' success, while expressing caution over their exact relationship with jihadist organizations such the Nusra Front and more moderate Islamists including as Ahrar al-Sham, as well as their real strength relative to such groups.
Because Jordan has closed its northern border to Syria to all but Syrians — a measure that has kept foreign fighters out, ensuring that IS is virtually non-existent in the area — journalists have been unable to enter, and independent verification of the situation on the ground has been hard to come by.
"These groups are not welcome in our operations rooms," Rayes said, referring to the Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham. "They do not share our ideology and our vision for a democratic, pluralistic, free Syria."
Itani said that nonetheless there is a sense in which they coordinate.
"If you mean one knows what the other is doing, and that there are efforts at promoting a synergy at times during battles and in choosing battles, this does exist," he said. "The MOC knows it does, and understands it would be unrealistic to expect otherwise. I would distinguish this from cooperation, as in launching joint operations or fighting side by side."
"Nusra provides essential shock troops and, critically, suicide bombers. Relative to its numbers, it has disproportionate importance," he added.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-15-2015 at 07:14 PM.
http://www.gmfus.org/blog/2015/09/14....wo6tJZFV.dpuf
Putin Losing in Ukraine, Looks to Syria
September 14, 2015
Ulrich Speck
In Ukraine, the Kremlin’s overarching goal has been to bring that country back under Russian control. But as Ukraine has become a stronger state that is integrating itself with the West, the likelihood for the Kremlin’s success is getting smaller every day. In order to distract from this strategic defeat, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased his military engagement in Syria. In the Kremlin’s view, Syria is another country where the United States and Russia fight for dominance, and it seems that Putin thinks that Syria presents an opportunity to win. The West should tread carefully, and take Moscow’s initiative as a further sign that a major diplomatic push is way past due in Syria – but not on Putin’s terms.
Russia will not announce defeat in Ukraine. But Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian-led attack in Donbas in combination with support from the West has made it impossible for Moscow to win back control over Ukraine any time soon without a major war. Instead of falling back into Russia’s sphere of domination, Ukraine has started along the long and hard road toward building a liberal-democratic nation state.
The Minsk II ceasefire has given Ukraine needed breathing space, moving the conflict from the military field to the diplomatic field. Russia had hoped that it could achieve its goal with diplomatic means, exerting pressure on Ukraine and its Western backers to accept a wide-ranging autonomy of Donbas and legal opportunities to Moscow’s proxies to block nation-wide policies it did not like.
But neither Ukraine nor the West is ready to accept Russia’s interpretation of Minsk II. Instead of becoming a tool to control Ukraine, the Donbas region is becoming another “frozen conflict,” a Russian-controlled enclave, similar to Transnistria. Under economic stress because of the fall of oil prices and Western sanctions, and without substantial support from other important players (such as China), the Kremlin seems to be ready to give up on the goal of reintegrating Ukraine, at least for the moment.
Increasing Russia’s role in Syria presents an opportunity for Putin to put Moscow back in the center of global politics, distract from the quagmire that the Donbas has become, and to score points abroad and at home.
Russia has always been a staunch supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, delivering weapons and shielding his regime from international condemnation by using its veto at the UN Security Council. But the Russian military build-up in Syria late last week caught the West by surprise.
By signaling to everybody that Russia is fully committed to keep Assad in power, Putin is exploiting Washington’s insecurity about its Syria strategy. While the United States and other Western governments have taken a stance against the Assad regime in the past, they have nevertheless focused their fight on the self-proclaimed Islamic State group (ISIS), not on the Assad regime. Putin wants to demonstrate that he, in contrast, is a bold actor with a strategy and a reliable patron in the region. His other message is that the time of regime change is over and that Russia stands ready to defend autocratic clients (taking a similar role to the one Russia played in the 19th century as the bulwark of monarchic legitimacy against Western liberalism and revolution).
At the same time, Putin is hoping that if he can pull together a strong anti-ISIS campaign under the headline of the “war on terrorism,” the West may again see Russia as a reliable player ready to work for solutions in regional crises.
Like the Ukraine adventure, the Syrian engagement is a risky game. Assad may be just like former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych: a man of the past that Putin tries vainly to keep in power. Assad will certainly not be able to regain control over Syria; at best he will be able to defend the territory he has managed to keep, or parts of it. Russia alone will not be able to substantially change the balance of power. ISIS may even be able to push Assad out, leaving Russia with no cards to play in Syria anymore. This would be an eerie repeat of Russia’s bid for influence in Ukraine.
In any case, Western policymakers should resist the temptation to align themselves with Russia in Syria. They should make clear that they understand that Assad’s terror is the root cause of the violence in Syria and that his bombing campaigns against civilians are the main drivers of the refugee crisis. They should understand that it is time for a major diplomatic initiative to push for a transformation in Syria, in order to set-up a post-Assad government that would be supported by the West in its fight against ISIS. The refugee crisis and Russia’s stepped-up military involvement should serve as a wake-up call: the longer the war in Syria drags on, the more costly it will become, in all regards.
...but this is 'wow' only if you have no clue about Assad's military.
I mean: OK, if you would follow a line of something like, 'when Emiratis deployed their mechanized brigade to Yemen, few weeks ago, the only air defence system they brought with them was ..... drums.... yeah, "SA-22" - aka Pantsyr'. (After the latest, SS-21-caused catastrophe in Marib, these had to be reinforced through addition of PAC-2s, of course.)
So, in theory, you could say this 'must' mean the Russians are now about to deploy at least one of their mechanized brigades to Syria too, then they have - supposedly - delivered Pantsyrs to Syria.
BUT...
The air defence regiment of the (former) Republican Guards Division is operating Pantsyrs already since 2007-2008. There are even high-rez photos of them, taken back in 2011 (let me know if you would like to have one).
Or what do you think was the reason the USAF was using F/A-22s for its opening strikes on Daesh and JAN in specific parts of Syria, last autumn...?
So, what's really 'new' here?
Oh, but sure (indeed: I was waiting for this). Given Israel is some 15 by 15 kilometres, right...?BUT with the Pantsir the Russians can actually establish with ease air space denial even over a large part of Isreal.
Namely, the SA-22 has a slant range of about 20km.
Guess, that's making it actually the next 'existential threat' for Israel, right?
Especially if the Syrians get as dumb as to position it right at the cease-fire line on Israeli-occuppied Golan Heighs, preferably within range of Israeli artillery too - then nothing else is going to work for what you call 'establish with ease air space denial even over a large part of Israel'.
Hand at heart: in worst case, Russians might deliver enough SA-22s to Assad to enable him to deploy some away from Damascus. Protect Lattakia and/or Tartous from another Israeli air strike whenever Russians have delivered some new weapons system to Assad...
If that's 'air space denial', then it's a 'denial of small portions of Syrian airspace', but surely no threat for Israel.
Please, be so kind and explain me: Syrian SA-22s are a threat forSo one does not need a large amount of ground troops if one wants to intimadate the US in the air space over Syria.
- a) Israel, or
- b) USA.
Then, you know - and contrary to widespread opinion - some say these two states are not the same. But, since you start with Israel, and then jump to the USA, I'm really not sure of your standpoint.
Firstly, SA-22 is no 'long-range threat'.Even NATO is now highly concerned about the Russian AD Systems.
We're going to have to develop TTPs [tactics, techniques & procedures] to address" Russia's "long-range SAM array"
Secondly, long-range threat would be such stuff like S-300, i.e. something from the SA-10/12/20-series.
Syria never got anything of this.
And thirdly: SA-10s and SA-12s are on NATO's threat lists since the late 1980s (at least).
So, if they haven't got TTPs for at least these two variants (which would surprise me mightly, considering the USAF's FWS has had TTPs for them back in the early 1990s)... what would you like to say that all the NATO air forces were doing the last 20+ years...?
Sitting on their hands?
Once again: what's the actual reason for getting upset about all of this...?
Appears Russia does not want the refugee crisis to go away ie be resolved.
EU may not send the army against refugee smugglers without Putin's permission pic.twitter.com/dcttucynY9
AND the Russian info war drumbeat that is all the fault of the US just keeps on beating---
Assad: Syria's civil war not caused by his mistakes, but b/c US invaded Iraq, supported terrorists in Afghanistan https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/643997483601928193 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-16-2015 at 04:45 AM.
So Crow Bat let me see --in your remarks your take based on a NATO Generals' open public statements--- is that there is no advanced Russian AD threat for NATO and Syria coming from the currently deployed Russian AD systems to include those now deployed into eastern Ukraine and those deployed in Syria controlled by the Russian military?...but this is 'wow' only if you have no clue about Assad's military.
I mean: OK, if you would follow a line of something like, 'when Emiratis deployed their mechanized brigade to Yemen, few weeks ago, the only air defence system they brought with them was ..... drums.... yeah, "SA-22" - aka Pantsyr'. (After the latest, SS-21-caused catastrophe in Marib, these had to be reinforced through addition of PAC-2s, of course.)
So, in theory, you could say this 'must' mean the Russians are now about to deploy at least one of their mechanized brigades to Syria too, then they have - supposedly - delivered Pantsyrs to Syria.
BUT...
The air defence regiment of the (former) Republican Guards Division is operating Pantsyrs already since 2007-2008. There are even high-rez photos of them, taken back in 2011 (let me know if you would like to have one).
Or what do you think was the reason the USAF was using F/A-22s for its opening strikes on Daesh and JAN in specific parts of Syria, last autumn...?
So, what's really 'new' here?
Oh, but sure (indeed: I was waiting for this). Given Israel is some 15 by 15 kilometres, right...?
Namely, the SA-22 has a slant range of about 20km.
Guess, that's making it actually the next 'existential threat' for Israel, right?
Especially if the Syrians get as dumb as to position it right at the cease-fire line on Israeli-occuppied Golan Heighs, preferably within range of Israeli artillery too - then nothing else is going to work for what you call 'establish with ease air space denial even over a large part of Israel'.
Hand at heart: in worst case, Russians might deliver enough SA-22s to Assad to enable him to deploy some away from Damascus. Protect Lattakia and/or Tartous from another Israeli air strike whenever Russians have delivered some new weapons system to Assad...
If that's 'air space denial', then it's a 'denial of small portions of Syrian airspace', but surely no threat for Israel.
Please, be so kind and explain me: Syrian SA-22s are a threat for
- a) Israel, or
- b) USA.
Then, you know - and contrary to widespread opinion - some say these two states are not the same. But, since you start with Israel, and then jump to the USA, I'm really not sure of your standpoint.
Firstly, SA-22 is no 'long-range threat'.
Secondly, long-range threat would be such stuff like S-300, i.e. something from the SA-10/12/20-series.
Syria never got anything of this.
And thirdly: SA-10s and SA-12s are on NATO's threat lists since the late 1980s (at least).
So, if they haven't got TTPs for at least these two variants (which would surprise me mightly, considering the USAF's FWS has had TTPs for them back in the early 1990s)... what would you like to say that all the NATO air forces were doing the last 20+ years...?
Sitting on their hands?
Once again: what's the actual reason for getting upset about all of this...?
If I understood your comments then the S300s that Russia signed the deal with Assad on and have not been delivered if my sources are correct are coming once the forward airfields can take them is not a threat? Notice I said deployed to Russian forward bases which assumes under Russian control but nominally assigned the Assad military.
And the soon to be delivered S300s to Iran which Russia and Iran reaffirmed are indeed being shipped are again not a threat at all?
You do realize that the S1 and it has not been actually identified as the S1--the S2 is also available----the S1and 2 are designed to be integrated with exactly the S300/400s and that Syrian army's 200 series that they have in country integrate as well into the command and control modules of the S300s. Thus in a relatively short period of time a layered AD system is in place integrating Syrian assets and Russian assets under control of the Russian military actually the GRU covering most of the still Assad controlled territory---it was--- was it not a Syrian 200 series that shot down the Turkish RF-4F over the Med and some say he was running hot and fast and still was hit?
Now once the Russian AD integration is complete you will see an inherent and definitely perceived threat to US/Allied aircraft over all of Syria and that includes threats to drone and cruise missiles. you missed evidently the NATO Generals comments as they were concerning an integrated layered and overlapping Russian AD system--even in eastern Ukraine they formed exactly this to protect their deployed troops--integrated, layered and overlapping. The 300s were moved into Crimea and Kaliningrad to form the integration--400s are being projected soon for Crimea.
That was the reasoning behind the not so subtle Russian FM lavrov's threat comments of "unintended consequences".
And I am assuming from your comments that the USAF has SEAD qualified pilots and aircraft that can be deployed if needed from the US AF Reserve --but wait the only USAF Reserve squadron that was the only AF asset that was SEAD qualified was flipped in 2009 and there is no longer any USAF SEAD qualified unit in the entire USAF.
As the remaining USAF SEAD unit they had demanded to be flipped so they could fly in AFG and Iraq and drop bombs--that was when the USAF felt there was no longer a need for SEAD.
While your comments on the 20 year old TTPs is interesting conduct a research and check out the utter lack of current USAF qualified/certified SEAD pilots and aircraft capabilities--there are none-can pilots fly and aircraft drop missiles yes--but the USAF has always maintained to conduct SEAD requires certified pilots and aircraft for that particular mission set--AND yes we did have them 30 plus years ago.
NOW is the interesting comment--can an armed drone take over the mission set--yes it can and in Libya a Predator did in fact claim a kill on a active SA-8 while the USAF strike aircraft did fly SAM interdiction missions where the SAMS never lit up any inbound aircraft--basically they were sitting on the rails and not functioning as the crews fled when they heard incoming aircraft.
One of the lessons learned in Libya was basically the non use of the estimated 24K advanced MANPADS the Libyan military had but were never used froze the AF in place because of the perceived threats---once the USAF realized they were not being used NATO strike aircraft became more aggressive--BUT the C-130 Specters were never allowed to fly over Libya--were always off the coast but never over land.
A lot of the strategic bombing runs conducted there were done in a stand off distance mode to avoid perceived AD abilities that never did materialize.
So back to your comments--notice just how the perceived threat of SA18/24s MANPAD deployments kept the USAF at a "safe" distance especially the Specter gunships --it was the same for the older but just as effective even today's standards the SA5/6/8s.
NOW go back and check the NATO AFs and see just how many Tornado's are still in the inventory and check how many F4s/variants are still flying---these two were the backbone of the NATO/US SEAD early attack capacity to knock a hole in the Soviet AD systems for later SEAD direct attacks.
Even the US F111s were designed for specific SEAD attacks and the last time they flew in SEAD direct attack mode was Desert Storm-now they sit in the desert air graveyard in Tucson AZ.
THIS is what the General is referring to--and he is 600% correct in his comments that NATO has to get back to the SEAD basics.
Even the US Army cannot conduct CAM under the combat conditions seen in the eastern Ukraine being practiced by the current professionally manned Russian army---you are hearing as well from the US Army--we have to get back to the basics---fast.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-16-2015 at 11:57 AM.
BLUF--as one of the few if not the only one that comments here at SWJ who has actually advised, trained and mentored Russian brigade staff officers, officers from their military academy and the MoD (2012/2013) and having watched them in the eastern Ukraine and having been intensively briefed by them on their reform plan 2020--I pay intense attention to weapons and weapons systems as that is the indicator of what the military it is prepared to do and not do.
This Russian army is highly professional especially the troops that were sent into Syria--marines from the Crimea, Russian airborne fro Pskov and the GRU/Spetsnaz--all combat veterans of the Ukraine invasion of August 2014.
This new Russian army is anything but dedicated to doctrine and that doctrine dictates for AD a integrated, layered and overlapping concept regardless of the size of the unit on the ground.
If the initial social media is correct and actually I trust it far more right now than the entire US intel community that did not see this coming but social media called it immediately--initially it looked like 1500 troops on the ground--depending on how they structure that is still three operational maneuver BNs.
Under the new Russian maneuver doctrine that BN is compact, independent and has everything it needs for self protection and offensive operations including AD, artillery, tanks, logistics and drones--AND it does integrate with other BNs on the ground.
Right now Russia has the capacity to easily field three complete Russian brigades in Syria and three in the Ukraine and maintain that ops tempo for six months before they must swap out the units.
ALL and I mean all western mainstream media stated that it appeared that only a few troops had landed---BUT then yesterday there was a social media report of at least a full BN on the move to a new location--SO exactly where and when did that BN make it into Syria should be answered.
Masking operations one zero one--the basis for all Russian doctrine.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-16-2015 at 02:41 PM.
Social media open source analysis on the support of the
Russian Navy for Assad
Very good charts on the ships, and other shipping and movement data at the end of the article.
https://en.informnapalm.org/war-in-s...-bashar-assad/
War in Syria: How the Russian Navy helps Bashar Assad
The Syrian government forces have relatively successfully fought against several opponents (Syrian rebels, moderate Islamists, Syrian Kurds and ISIS) for five years already. The territory controlled by Bashar al-Assad decreases each year, but the regime still preserves the power thanks largely to the economic and military support of the Russian Federation. The InformNapalm team decided to demonstrate the traffic statistics of various Russian fleets’s warships in the Syrian port of Tartus. This article contains the results of the investigation of Anton Pavlushko, our OSINT-expert, who made an extensive analysis and prepared several tables with the times, periods, expeditions count and the list of the Russian Navy’s transport warships involved into military cargoes deployment to Syria (direct link – http://bit.ly/VovaHelpingBashar).
One of the reasons of this long-running conflict is Assad’s regime’s “endless war reserves” which Russia constantly refills both by air and by sea. The air traffic is limited nowadays, but the sea traffic remains a robust life-line for Bashar.
The main role in the military cargoes transfer to Syria is played by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (the home base is located in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, Ukraine).
Theoretically, Russia could have established the military smuggling to Syria with the help of civil ships, but the first freight inspection would provoke an international scandal – that is why the Navy’s warships are used for the convoys. The traffic to the Syrian port goes through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.
The warships cannot be revised and the passing of the straits is the subject to Montreux Convention from 1936 and requires only a notification of the Turkish authorities about the coming event.
In this way, the Russian landing platform/docks (LPDs) are used for military equipment and troops transfer to Syria. The Black Sea fleet has 7 LPDs as part of the 197th landing ship brigade.
It is worth noting that the Ukrainian LPD ‘Konstantin Olshansky’ (captured by the Russians during the annexation of Crimea) is located in Sevastopol, but Russia does not venture to use it for cargoes transferring to Syria.
As you can see from the table, they could use only 4-5 ships out of 7, so it was decided to take LPDs from other fleets to increase the traffic capacity.
North fleet — 4 Project 775 class LPDs:
Baltic fleet — 4 Project 775 class LPDs:
Pacific fleet — 3 Project 775 class LPDs and 1 Project 1171 class LPD:
*The ships that has not taken part in cargoes transferring to Syria through the Bosphorus are marked in red
These are the two main types of the landing ships (Project 775 and 1171):
The Project 1171 (started in 2004) had to reinforce the outdated Russian fleet with the new landing ships, but none of the ships of this class has been put in service due to poor funding.
The Russian military authorities also planned to reinforce the fleet capacity by the latest Mistral-class multipurpose landing ships ordered in France. This kind of ships could transfer up to 70 military trucks OR 40 tanks and 450 troops and have the displacement of 32000 tons which is several times greater than the Project 775/1171 LPDs (up to 4400 tons). But the annexation of Crimea and the applied sanctions ruined the plan. Now Russia has to use the old vessels built in Soviet times.
We took the Turkish Bosphorus Naval News site to analyze the traffic through the Bosphorus. It does not contain the full data, but the authors are sure they have processed 90-95% of the warships traffic through the strait. The InformNapalm volunteers combined the data from 2013-2015 and split it by the fleets, ship types and passages times.
More than 300 passings the Bosphorus in both directions by the Russian warships were registered in 3 years. More than 50 different ships from all the Russian Navy’s fleets participated in that, including at least 14 out of 18 LPDs in service – 5 (Black Sea fleet), 4 (Baltic fleet), 3 (North fleet), 2 (Pacific fleet).
The share of the landing ships among all the Russian warships passed the Bosphorus was more than 70% (229 of 303 passages). The Black sea fleet’s LPDs performed more than half of the passages, 20% is accounted for by LPDs of the Baltic fleet and around 10% by the North fleet’s LPDs.
The common route of the Russian LPDs: Sevastopol (if ship belongs to the Black sea fleet) — Novorossiysk — Bosphorus — Dardanelles — Latakia/Tartus.
The main cargo loading is done in Novorossiysk. Loading in Sevastopol requires cargo transferring to Crimea, which is rather difficult lately. So, the Russian ships have to make a detour from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk which extends an average expedition time to Tartus by 1 day. A typical expedition from Novorossiysk to Tartus takes 4 days.
One trip to Syria and back takes around 10 days – such trips can be tracked in the traffic through the Bosphorus. Often the Black sea fleet’s LPDs travel in pair, pass the straits and return back to the Black sea in 8-13 days.
Novorossiysk-Tartus trip takes around 4 days (1512 sea miles or 2433 km), the cargo is unloaded for several days and the ships sail home (the time spent is calculated with the SeaRates service).
InformNapalm_Syria_02_ENG
As you can see from the statistic information and info-graphic, the sea traffic increases each year. Presumably, there were more than 30 expeditions in 2013, and more than 45 in 2014. And they reached the level of 2014 already by September, 2015.
The landing ships of the Baltic and North fleets are used in rotation of Russia’s Mediterranean Fleet (in Russian), but, in fact, ply between Novorossiysk and Tartus.
The most frequent travelers to the Mediterranean are the ‘Kaliningrad’ LPD (10 times in 2014) and ‘Novocherkassk’ LPD (9 trips in 2014 and 8 in 2015). The technical maintenance in Tartus is provided by 2 floating workshops of the Black Sea Fleet – PM-56 and PM-138 which swap each 6 months (in Russian).
Thanks to the data of the Bosphorus Naval News project, we can speak about more than 100 trips of the Russian LPDs to Syria in 3 incomplete years.
The information about the warship trips can also be found in the open VKontakte groups where wives and servicemen share the actual coordinates of the ships. The ‘Syrian’ question arises there all the time.
Besides that, the Tartus port calls are covered in local media (in Kaliningrad, Sevastopol, Novorossiysk) and on the web sites of the Russian News Agency TASS, RIA Novosti, etc.
It is remarkable that the ships are fully loaded on the way to Tartus — the water-line is hardly seen on the pictures. But on the way to the Black sea it can easily be seen – the ships are empty.
We do not know much about the cargo, but starting from the summer of 2015 the Russian LPDs pass the Bosphorus with the military equipment on the upper deck. The tilt-covered or hidden under the camouflage net equipment has been pictured by many news agencies. This way the world got to know about ‘Nikolai Filchenkov’ LPD. In general, it is pretty dangerous maneuver for a LPD, since it is a long trip in the open sea.
The Project 1171 LPDs can take cargo on the upper deck, but it was weird when containers were placed on the upper deck of the Project 775 LPD, where is almost no free space. It seems like Russians experience some kind of ‘logistics panic’ these days. The deployment of the military cargo to Syria is intensive now. It is likely that Bashar al-Assad’s army badly needs a reinforcement.
Eventually, in the plain sight of the whole world Russia almost openly provides Assad’s regime with the weaponry. And lately the number of shipments increased. In result, we have millions of refugees, hundreds of thousands of killed people and general unrest in this oil producing region. But the world community starts to see who pours gasoline on a blaze of this war only now, 4 years later.
Even the hasteless European bureaucracy has started to take actions. And gradually Russia looses the possibility to transfer the cargoes by air, so the expeditions of the Russian LPDs through the Bosphorus will increase.
This way, while Russia’s economy experiences the pressure of sanctions for the Crimea occupation and the war in Donbas, the Russian Federation authorities spend billions of rubles on the Bashar Assad’s regime support. Having stuck in one war, the Kremlin enters another one. So, the ‘cargo 200’ [dead bodies] will come not only from Donbas, but also from Syria.
Additional materials and statistical data.
The approximate number of the trips to Tartus:
The number of the Russian LPDs involved into the expeditions to Syria, by fleets:
The number of the expeditions to Syria, by ships (in one year):
The appraisal report of the expeditions from January, 2013 till September 2015 (criterion – leaving the Black Sea and returning in 4 weeks)
All the Russian LPDs movements through the Bosphorus from January, 2013 till September, 2015:
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-16-2015 at 02:53 PM.
Crow Bat--you indicated that the past Soviet/Russian air lifts were 1 plane per hour--I mentioned we are seeing 2 AN-124s and 2-3 Iranian flights now per day BUT to watch the sea lift operation that has been underway for awhile now.
This is the Russian masking operation per doctrine and explains to a degree the sudden appearance of a fullly operational maneuver BN showing up in a new location virtually undetected by western MSM.
Crow Bat—there is such a beast called “Indications and Warnings” that I have been gently nudging you towards and yet…….you get hung up on missile knowledge not realizing the AD system is and was designed to stop a NFZ –it is that simple.
So Putin wants Assad to continue barrel bombing civilians (since Assad rarely bombs ISIS): https://uk.news.yahoo.com/syria-russ...2.html#xOmrFKW …
Russian disinformation at work—after US rejected Putin’s offer to work with Assad and Russia against IS..
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
US-led coalition’s achievements in fighting #IS look modest.We urge to consolidate efforts in fighting the threat http://tass.ru/en/politics/821569 …
While air power alone will not win a ground war—if one read the recent article on the US A10 pilots flying over Iraq and Syria---the USAF and allies are literally killing thousands of inbound IS fighters and at least IS has not grown past an estimated 30K—THAT The Russian FM fails to mention.
NOTICE the US response was as follows--if you Russia are really serious about fighting IS join our coalition of 60 and fly the skies of Iraq and Syria with us---you are invited to join us--not membership fee is needed just send a timely answer.
NOTICE--not a response from Putin and or his FM SO Russia is not so serious about attacking IS.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-16-2015 at 03:14 PM.
WOULD suggest that the Russian FM read the article from Nolan Peterson--maybe they would not stumbling all over themselves with this PR.
http://dailysignal.com/2015/09/14/it...fighting-isis/ …
http://www.cepa.org/content/putins-n...rror-coalition
Putin's New Deception: A Call for Anti-Terror Coalition
Marius Laurinavičius
September 16, 2015
Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose troops are still helping the so-called rebels in eastern Ukraine, is trying to bring a new charm offensive to the West, including to the upcoming United Nations 70th General Assembly in New York.
"We really want to create some kind of international coalition to fight terrorism and extremism," Putin said on September 4 at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, reiterating the initiative he first announced in June.
Putin added that Moscow is “holding consultations with our American partners” on the issue and he had personally discussed it with President Barack Obama by phone. The Russian leader makes no secret that he is going to make this new initiative a centerpiece of his speech in New York.
Putin biographer Alexander Rahr, who is considered a key figure in German-Russian economic relations or even a lobbyist for Russia with close ties to Moscow, publicly called for the West not to ignore Putin’s appeal. He pointed out that this particular initiative can reconcile Russia and the West for the sake of their mutual interests.
Even before that, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the United States has been sending "signals" that it wants to start mending ties with Moscow, badly strained by the war in Ukraine.
This might be wishful thinking on the Kremlin’s part, for which a strategy to trade off Ukraine for closer cooperation with the West on other issues, especially a fight against terrorism, is not a new one. Surprisingly for Moscow, Western governments remain united on sanctions against Russia and show no willingness for any trade-off. However, voices in the West calling for a “broader perspective” on relations with Moscow, and not just its aggression in Ukraine, are becoming more and more vocal.
That is why Putin’s initiative should be taken seriously and analyzed not by the words of Russian leaders, but by their deeds.
In this respect, recent reports of a Russian military buildup in Syria are much more illustrative than the public campaign Moscow is continuing to build up in an effort to convince the West of its readiness to cooperate.
So, too, should an eye-opening article on how the Russian secret services are helping the Islamic State, written by Michael Weiss, a well-respected journalist and expert on Russia and terrorism, tell us much more about Moscow’s true intentions than the words of Putin or Lavrov.
The KGB has a long history of supporting all kinds of terrorists in their fight against the West, and Putin’s KGB-based regime has never abandoned this strategy. It would be more than naïve to think that the regime, whose propaganda constantly prepares its society for a war against the West, will support Washington or Brussels on any front.
True, Russia now is building up its strategy of seeming reconciliation with the West on the positive role it played in achieving the Iran nuclear deal. But no one should be fooled by Russia’s intentions. Since starting the war in Ukraine, Russia is trying to build as many anti-Western axes in the world as it can and to strengthen them as much as it can as well.
The Russia-China axis and Russia-Iran-Syria axis should be mentioned first, and all the steps Russia has recently taken should be considered from this perspective, including the Iran deal, courting the region by an anti-terrorism coalition proposal and other initiatives as well. Russia is serious about regaining influence in the Middle East. And there should be no doubt it is going to do that at the expense of the influence of the United States and the West as a whole, not as part of building a new platform of cooperation.
That is why Putin’s current call for cooperation against the threat of terrorism can hardly be considered aimed at reconciliation with the West—most probably just the opposite. It is a part of a much bigger strategy to counter and challenge the West. But Russia would be more than happy to trade off Ukraine on the way to achieving its more ambitious goals.
Same propaganda machine at work for Syria as in Ukraine. Deja vu: Blackwater mercenaries operating in Syria... lol https://twitter.com/ArtWendeley/stat...30875530199040 …
Most interesting word in this news piece:
"#deployment".
Not "support", like Putin said yesterday, anymore. pic.twitter.com/y27rCjy5xl
Erdoğan aims at Russia with unveiled criticism on Syria http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Def...&NewsCatID=338 …
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