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Thread: Syria in 2015

  1. #401
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    8 Assad barrel bombs on #Madaya in rural #Damascus near #Zabadani after rebels take back several positions from Hezbollah & Assad militias.

    18 barrel bombs were dropped by Assad helicopters on #Daraya, #Damascus so far today.

    Sham Front rebels launching mortar shells at #ISIS positions in Dabiq & Harbel in #Aleppo, #Syria

    FSA Suqour al-Jabal firing rockets at regime officer housing & the cardboard factory barrier in #Aleppo, #Syria http://youtu.be/x8USldZIuYU

    Heavy fighting in the hills surrounding #Harasta today between JAI & regime forces/militias. #Damascus #Syria

    Seems the relatives of Shiite militia members in #FuahKafraya battle don't use #Syria'n flag to publish obituaries

    #FSA Fursan al-Haq blow up regime ammo pickup in the Military Academy #Aleppo with TOW missile
    http://youtu.be/82uGwz875q8

    Videos showing Jaysh al-Fath fighters clashing and advancing.
    https://youtu.be/9eZh4NfSq6Y
    https://youtu.be/-cWp8mHEFbY
    https://twitter.com/IbnNabih1/status/644922037165813760

    Russia #Syria : Here she is in #Sevastopol possibly loading cargo from mil trucks b4 Syria https://twitter.com/YorukIsik/status/645107010443288576

    Syria : Appears that #ISIS getting ready to make another assault on #Kewers airbase. Imagery shows evidence of 2 digging projects (1)

    Syria : 5th identified eastern #Latakia location w/ Russian Comms/equipment activity http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...08474&z=17&m=b

    Syria : Russian Comms/vehicles based at this E #Latakia hilltop starting Sept 5th http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...06542&z=19&m=b

    Sat images - #Russia has 4 Su-27 jets, 2 Mi-24 & 2 Mi-17 choppers, 6 T-90 tanks & 25+ BTR APCs in #Latakia airbase: pic.twitter.com/sPOdgi1Ms8

    Syria : Russian communications equipment and vehicles have been deploying to this #Slinfah ridge for several weeks
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-19-2015 at 06:37 PM.

  2. #402
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    'Russian soldiers are unhappy about going to Syria' - if captured in #Ukraine = get swapped in POW exchange. In #Syria = star in ISIS video

    Is it true that on #Russia military vacation request forms there are only 4 check boxes?
    1 Ukraine
    2 Syria
    3 Siberia
    4 Nevermind

    Russia needs air-to-air missiles to blow up Baghdadi's flying carpet.

  3. #403
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    JAI launching Grad rockets at Hmaimeem (Basel al-Assad) airport in #Latakia, #Syria where Russian jets have arrived

    Anti Assad forces rocket Russian military base----this is going to get interesting as the anti Assad forces shoot back not like in the Ukraine where the UAF had to restrain themselves from firing.


    VIDEO Supp. Islamic Militants firing Grad P rockets at #Putin troops #Latakia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOiz3mWgPV0 … pic.twitter.com/KIYSUE8Kai
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-19-2015 at 07:01 PM.

  4. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Can anyone explain to me what Kerry really is smoking---how can it be that social media is so well informed and the US DoS evidently has absolutely not a clue of what Russia ie Putin is doing in Syria.

    HECK even social media had the first photo and report on the advanced Russian AD system that had been shipped to Syria--and NOW it strikes Kerry as a problem?????

    It was social media that triggered the first reporting and it was the US that denied their reports at first, then it was social media that released tens of Russian military selfies taken physically in Syria, then it was social media that tracked Russia air and sea lift movements in real time before the US could say anything and it was social media that pointed a very direct finger at the exact strategy Putin is driving.

    SO exactly why do we have over 700 people working inside the NSC? WHY do we even have a DoS???

    Just hire social media as they are definitely better informed, quicker and not tied to any political doctrine--definitely a heck of a lot cheaper.

    London. (Evan Vucci, Pool/Associated Press)

    By Ken Dilanian | AP September 19 at 11:20 AM



    Come on--this is getting ridiculous--social media carried the first reporting of this Russian AD system and first photo several days ago AND now US MSM and the DoS Kerry "wake up out of their sleep walking".

    It was even posted here in this thread----just how much are we really paying the entire US IC?????

    Russia has deployed surface-to-air missiles, planes with air-to-air missiles in #Syria, U.S. says. SA-22 at Latakia. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/20/wo...-buildup-in-sy... …

    THIS is actually embarrassing now...............
    Putin positions himself as a pseudo-savior on a white horse, claiming "Obama NEEDS #Russia"
    http://ria.ru/world/20150919/1264134004.html … pic.twitter.com/mSehVBJzDi

  5. #405
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Assad helicopter shot down by Shamiya Front AA missile over Nayrab military airbase in #Aleppo, #Syria
    We know there has always been a small number of FN-6 MANPADS in northern #Syria but we rarely saw them in action. https://twitter.com/paradoxy13/statu...81664000782336

    Map
    Ahrar al-Sham claims capture of southern #Fuah, Tell al-Khirbah and parts of Dair al-Zughb
    .
    #Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/tKmeQpgpoL
    VIDEO: Sham Front shoot down #Syria Air Force helicopter with MANPADS over Neirab military airport
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMeiCwII9uE

  6. #406
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    RUS troops in SYR not for "defensive" purposes; reportedly en route to engage ISIS near Hama

    http://exm.nr/1MiW9ph

  7. #407
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    Army of Islam claims it seized control over large chunk of vital #Damascus-#Homs highway.Civilians allowed to traverse during daytime #Syria

    The soldiers refused to go to #Syria w/o a legal written order, protecting their rights & (death) benefits. Lessons from #Ukraine.

    Satellite images show #Russia(n) An-124 Transport planes & attack helicopters in #Latakia pic.twitter.com/eWxh5A0zxQ

  8. #408
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    Russian Su-30 multipurpose fighters now in Syria. One purpose is to win dogfights with enemy aircraft. ISIS has none. pic.twitter.com/OA11ucqExn

    Humor-----

    Russian jets in Syria are fitted with air-to-air missiles in case they encounter ISIS' air force squadrons of flying carpets.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-19-2015 at 07:40 PM.

  9. #409
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    Clash of ATGMs..TOW crushed the Kornet..
    http://youtu.be/EXTVE6Nf9T0 pic.twitter.com/3OyflcsKi1

    Someone has trained extremely well TOW hunter killer teams that are flipping the battlefield--TOW the Stinger of 2015-------
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-19-2015 at 07:46 PM.

  10. #410
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    Rebels telecommunication stations say they heard Russian pilots flying combat missions radio the airbase over #Idlib.

    Footage
    Islamist Syrian rebel coalition takes Tell al-Khirbah 4 km N-E of #Fuah
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgrA...ature=youtu.be
    #Syria pic.twitter.com/PwnM6CUec5

  11. #411
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    And lest we forget, Russia exercised its veto 3 times to prevent UN delivery of humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians https://twitter.com/ObeidaNahas/stat...30618360475648

    Footage
    An #Assad regime barrel bomb attack in #Aleppo killed 17 civilians today.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7KXY66rqKw
    #Syria pic.twitter.com/6CPOY5GOmX
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-19-2015 at 08:45 PM.

  12. #412
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    Syria: #Russia|n selfie soldiers' locations pic.twitter.com/muEs6IpGPK

    The continued use of RAK-12s suggests Croatia weapons are still being sent to the Syria opposition, since early 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eZ1KPStaRU

    Rumors of new ceasefire agreement in #Zabadani and #FuaKafarya. No confirmation from any side.

    Jaysh al-Fath took couple of regime barriers east al-Fu'a today. Still no confirmation on ceasefire agreement. pic.twitter.com/ogknsBYB4l

  13. #413
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    This falls under bitter but true humor-----

    Obama will leave office before Assad does.

  14. #414
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    I'm going to start an accurate crowd-sourced Intel/Analytical service for FREE. I'll call it Twitter. Doh!. Nevermind.


    Analysis #Map
    Frontline geolocation East of #Fuah.
    Taken poultry farm by Ahrar al Sham (90% certain).
    #Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/51OBMW33ac

    Faulty analysis from @AllSourceA . Russian jets @ #Latakia airbase are Su-30 not Su27 as they claim. Wrong on multiple levels *sigh*

    Satellitenfoto: Russische SU-27 Kampfflugzeuge auf dem Al-Assad Flughafen in #Syrien @welt (Quelle: @AllSourceA) pic.twitter.com/zxsEaAyHJg

    Here are the 4 SU-30s a week ago in Russia---
    Here are some a/c sitting at Belbek over a week ago. Might as well post em here
    pic.twitter.com/9oPhFuiaVD

    Syria Negotiations expected btw Jaish al-Fatah #JaF & #Iran/#Hezbollah about handover & evacuation of #Fuah+#Kafraya & #Zabadani + #Madaya

    And what did #Assad do today?
    Cause more death and destruction by barrel-bombing #Daraya.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuiSZUw2pSw … pic.twitter.com/R4cP2Civms

    Footage
    #Nusra islamist rebels with RPG-22 during the attack on the #Fuah line of defence.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXorB9sqnE8 … pic.twitter.com/iH1X1wb0cp

    Syria : Rebels have made progress in multiple fronts around #Aleppo for the first time in months

    Plus visual confirmation, Jaish al Fatah captured the important frontline base after the suicide attack
    #FuahKafraya pic.twitter.com/1X93xPULrI

    Syria #Aleppo : Shabiha steps out for a cigarette, rebels offer him a light https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff_ZH93A_Jw

    Analysis #Map
    Syrian rebel SVBIED destroys Tell al-Khirbah outpost before capture.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfjq1Mcg8kY
    #Syria pic.twitter.com/s6gGFM70zS

    Footage
    Brutal fighting action by #Assad's forces in #Damascus' #Jobar district
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wTGg3J1aus
    #Syria pic.twitter.com/620j6aY3Qj

    A video of the aftermath of barrel bomb attack on my aunt's flat yesterday in Ansari, Aleppo: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-TQP4pWs3pA
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-20-2015 at 11:56 AM.

  15. #415
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    http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/co...ering-in-syria

    Obama must start leading and stop dithering in Syria


    Hussein Ibish

    September 19, 2015

    Related articles-------

    With Assad on the ropes in Syria, what’s the endgame?

    An absent America is the worst of all possible worlds

    America needs to develop a consistent policy in Syria

    US policy reflects America’s lack of interest in the world

    The awful truth about American policy towards the war in Syria – the most dangerous, destabilising and tragic conflict in the world – was summed up last week by the astounding revelation that there are only nine American-trained rebels currently fighting in Syria.

    Last week in these pages, I noted that Russia is getting a free pass in much of the Arab world for sponsoring and enabling Bashar Al Assad, who is primarily responsible for the hundreds of thousands of dead, and millions of displaced, Syrian civilians, and the destruction of much of the country. Russia’s criminal culpability as the primary handmaiden of the destruction of Syria even outstrips Iran’s far more widely recognised malfeasance.

    America’s Syria policy, exemplified by the single-digit numbers of US-trained fighters on the ground, is in no sense a comparable tragedy. But it is certainly a farce.

    The paltry amount of $500 million was allocated by the US congress for the training. fifty four rebels were selected, with nine now reportedly fighting in Syria under the terms of the programme. Forget about The Six Million Dollar Man of 1970s TV fame, each of these fighters cost more than $55 million.

    It’s not just embarrassing, worse than useless, and a gigantic waste of money. It’s incontrovertible evidence of a policy in desperate free fall.

    From the outset, American inaction has ensured that the wrong-headed idea that there is no one to work with on the ground in Syria has increasingly become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s still not too late to build such a force, but it grows ever more difficult to achieve, particularly given the depth of this recent failure.

    Obama administration policy, which emphasises the need to avoid the collapse of governance institutions in Syria, such as they are, militates against any confrontation with the Assad regime. Never mind that it is formal US policy that he has lost all legitimacy and must go.

    Perhaps a sham programme that pretends to be training people to influence events on the ground while actually attempting no such thing is the perfect embodiment of a policy that purports to oppose the continuation of a government when it actually does not wish to see it go, at least just yet. If Mr Al Assad were the only issue, this tragicomedy might actually be comprehensible.

    But the United States has a stated policy of seeking to “degrade and ultimately defeat” ISIL. American and international attention to the menace of ISIL was captured when the organisation rampaged through Iraq in 2014. Washington clearly has an “Iraq-first” policy when it comes to ISIL.

    But ISIL’s base and headquarters are in Syria. It cannot be defeated in Iraq alone, and the “Iraq-first” approach all but guarantees it will survive as a potent force. ISIL might even be driven out of most of Iraq, but spread into new areas from its Syrian base. Indeed, ISIL’s regional influence is expanding, while the effort to drive it out of Iraq is making a little headway.

    Obviously ISIL has to be confronted in Syria, even if the real goal is some form of containment. Air power alone will do little to “degrade”, let alone “defeat”, these fanatics. Ground forces are indisputably essential. And all honest observers admit any use of forces perceived to be supporting the Assad regime will only strengthen ISIL’s hand and drive more Syrian Sunnis into their camp.

    These incontrovertible facts led to the training programme that has just been exposed as a combination of cynical fraud and embarrassing fiasco.

    Sadly this is all a continuation of the approach that led to the shameful backtracking over Barack Obama’s chemical weapons “red line” in 2013. After repeated instances of chemical attacks on civilians by the regime, instead of being punished, Mr Al Assad was actually rewarded with an agreement in which he promised to relinquish and destroy all of his chemical weapons.

    He suddenly emerged as a partner with the United States in the accord, with all the diplomatic legitimacy that implies, and the agreement clearly required him to keep control of all the areas of the country necessary to implement it.

    Now there is considerable evidence Mr Al Assad has been again using chlorine bombs. Washington’s mighty response? Quietly suggesting a UN inquiry.

    Russia has defended its policies in Syria as open and honest. Indeed, Moscow makes no pretence of doing anything other than funding and supporting its Syrian client’s mass murder and mass displacement, though it preposterously rationalises it as counterterrorism.

    The United States, by contrast, has no meaningful policy in Syria. Any doubts about that, even after the chemical weapons travesty, have surely been dispelled by this parody of a training programme.

    American apathy has continuously made matters worse and limited Washington’s own options. But it’s never too late. History doesn’t stop and events continue to unfold. People will always respond to carrots and sticks.

    The trouble is that a coherent policy requires a desired outcome, and the United States doesn’t seem to know what, within the realm of the possible, it wants to see happen in Syria. This inexplicable and inexcusable confusion is the proximate cause of America’s Syria policy crisis. Washington, and the world, cannot afford any more of this self-defeating dithering.

  16. #416
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    I'm going to start an accurate crowd-sourced Intel/Analytical service for FREE. I'll call it Twitter. Doh!. Nevermind.


    Analysis #Map
    Frontline geolocation East of #Fuah.
    Taken poultry farm by Ahrar al Sham (90% certain).
    #Idlib #Syria pic.twitter.com/51OBMW33ac

    Faulty analysis from @AllSourceA . Russian jets @ #Latakia airbase are Su-30 not Su27 as they claim. Wrong on multiple levels *sigh*

    Satellitenfoto: Russische SU-27 Kampfflugzeuge auf dem Al-Assad Flughafen in #Syrien @welt (Quelle: @AllSourceA) pic.twitter.com/zxsEaAyHJg

    Here are the 4 SU-30s a week ago in Russia---
    Here are some a/c sitting at Belbek over a week ago. Might as well post em here
    pic.twitter.com/9oPhFuiaVD

    Syria Negotiations expected btw Jaish al-Fatah #JaF & #Iran/#Hezbollah about handover & evacuation of #Fuah+#Kafraya & #Zabadani + #Madaya

    And what did #Assad do today?
    Cause more death and destruction by barrel-bombing #Daraya.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuiSZUw2pSw … pic.twitter.com/R4cP2Civms

    Footage
    #Nusra islamist rebels with RPG-22 during the attack on the #Fuah line of defence.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXorB9sqnE8 … pic.twitter.com/iH1X1wb0cp

    Syria : Rebels have made progress in multiple fronts around #Aleppo for the first time in months

    Plus visual confirmation, Jaish al Fatah captured the important frontline base after the suicide attack
    #FuahKafraya pic.twitter.com/1X93xPULrI

    Syria #Aleppo : Shabiha steps out for a cigarette, rebels offer him a light https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ff_ZH93A_Jw

    Analysis #Map
    Syrian rebel SVBIED destroys Tell al-Khirbah outpost before capture.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfjq1Mcg8kY
    #Syria pic.twitter.com/s6gGFM70zS

    Footage
    Brutal fighting action by #Assad's forces in #Damascus' #Jobar district
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wTGg3J1aus
    #Syria pic.twitter.com/620j6aY3Qj

    A video of the aftermath of barrel bomb attack on my aunt's flat yesterday in Ansari, Aleppo: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-TQP4pWs3pA
    Syria : New Tank Identification Guide for Rebels : How to determine if your target is crewed by SAA or Russians ---Dash Cam on left front side of the tank----Russian—no Dash Cam—SAA.

    Tow Missile Destroys a technical truck full of troops #Syria
    Flying Shabiha part 302
    https://youtu.be/H97z4w_0Y_o

    Footage
    The #Assad air force keeps bombing civilians in the #Homs town of #Talbisah
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOq52dNWHbs

    IT is just not IS infiltrating the refugee flows to Europe-----
    Laith Ayman Munshdi, Assad terrorist from #Syria, given refuge in #Germany! Seen stepping on bodies dead bodies.

    If you want to see the craziest videos of barrel bombs in Daraya. This channel has been posting them since 2013.
    https://www.youtube.com/user/DaryaRevlution/videos

    Heavy clashes between FSA and regime forces at Dahiyet al-Assad in Aleppo. #Syria
    http://youtu.be/q6g0o6Odg0Q

    FSA shell ISIS positions in northern Aleppo with missiles. #Syria
    http://youtu.be/QcunG0wGqgg

    Clashes between FSA & regime in Khalidiyeh district, Aleppo. #Syria
    http://youtu.be/Dt_WE8GjEKg
    http://youtu.be/rbb8D6nKgQg
    http://youtu.be/1LO3lZkOBIQ

    FSA 16th Division shell took out an Assad soldier in Khalidiyeh district, Aleppo. #Syria
    http://youtu.be/ff_ZH93A_Jw

    FSA Suqour al-Jabal destroys an Assad truck mounted 23 mm gun with a TOW missile in Fuah, #Idlib, #Syria https://youtu.be/H97z4w_0Y_o

    After an ISIS car bomb failed, ADF sent one back to them in Harbal, N-Aleppo & it didn't fail
    http://youtu.be/hPrhI1C-voM

    What ceasefire, heavy clashes between rebels & Hezbollah in #Zabadani & Assad shelling on #Madaya in rural #Damascus, #Syria

    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-20-2015 at 12:24 PM.

  17. #417
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    Syria #Idlib Regime use ceasefire to parachute ammo/weapons into besieged Shiite enclave
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtkN68PNbLU
    -battle of #FuahKafraya-

    Syria #Idlib View from highest point on Tell al-Khirbah toward #Fuah
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiGE71SBApw

    Syria #FSA shelling #Assad-suburb at western entrance of #Aleppo with hell cannons
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6g0o6Odg0Q
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36...83042&z=16&m=b

    New batch of 75 #US-trained fighters (Division 30) entered northern #Syria with 12 technicals
    WHO trained them as the CENTCOM Commander failed to mention them in his Congressional hearing this week?????

    Syria #Aleppo From frontline in Khalidiya https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbb8D6nKgQghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LO3lZkOBIQ
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...24283&z=16&m=b

    Syria #Aleppo Huge car-bomb explode inside #IS held town Harbul
    -rebels send them a present
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPrhI1C-voM

    Almost daily reports of tanks & BMPs being destroyed by JAI using ATGMs around Dahiya al-Assad in #Damascus, vids would be nice
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-20-2015 at 12:47 PM.

  18. #418
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    Crow Bat--remember our dialogue on the Russian AD systems in Syria??

    Remember I mentioned that the S300s were inbound---now the question is just where are they physically in Syria--- not a question of if they are.

    @finriswolf · Sep 18
    Can someone else please ID this equipment - because I *can't*

    It is a clam shell 76N6 low altitude acquisition radar towers with support equipment for S300 missiles

    @finriswolf @hdevreij "S300 in Syria
    "

    HERE though is the UNLESS--the missiles are not there but the command and control equipment is in order to tie into the latest low level Russian AD systems they have sent into the 200s series (really a S300 series) the Syrians have already.

    That would give you an integrated, layers and overlapping AD system in the Russian doctrinal sense--coupled with the SU-30s--fully capable of threatening the US and denying the West the ability to setup a NFZ.

  19. #419
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    Bitter humor----but when looking at the Obama FP—actually true……

    Concern, bargaining, anger, depression, then acceptance.
    Barack Obama's 5 stages of dealing with Russia.

  20. #420
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    Well worth the reading of this..................

    http://www.interpretermag.com/a-russ...ears-too-late/

    NOTICE the date of this article—we do if one is wise need to often go back and review what has been written as a way to refresh one’s memory of current events----

    A Russian Plan For Syria Is Two Years Too Late

    September 12, 2013

    The Kerry Plan

    Some say it was a mistake, but if it was then it was the “gaffe heard round the world.” John Kerry made a sarcastic, and possibly off-the-cuff, comment about how Syrian President Bashar al Assad might escape U.S. military attacks aimed at punishing him for using chemical weapons on August 21st:

    He could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week. Turn it over, all of it, without delay, and allow a full and total accounting for that. But he isn’t about to do it, and it can’t be done, obviously.

    Within what seemed like moments, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, endorsed a plan to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles, and pledged Russia’s support in the process. Soon after, Syria Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem expressed that the Assad regime was willing to work with the Russians. With three sentences, John Kerry appears to have altered the international community’s entire conversation and trajectory with regards to Syrian intervention.

    As this story is developing, there will be rolling updates. For instance, Syria has suggested that it is willing to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, a 20 year old international agreement that only Syria and four other states have refused to sign thus far. France has stated that it will draft UN Security Council resolution that would put in place verification methods in order to ensure that Syria carries through with its pledge. Sensing that Russia and Assad were trying to derail US efforts to build a military coalition to strike Syria, France’s proposal included language that could open the door for international strikes against Syria should it fail to comply. Russia has threatened to veto the UNSC resolution.

    John Kerry spoke on a Google Hangout, and he has reiterated that the White House is interested in this proposal, but there have to be verification processes built into any agreement, and he and the President are unwilling to wait a long period of time for the plan to be worked out. Obama’s speech suggested that the United States is still interested in moving forward with military intervention, but it was willing to briefly give the diplomatic process to work. In the end, though, he would need strong language that ensured that Assad was held accountable for destroying the CW. And again, Russia has said that it is unwilling to accept those kinds of preconditions.

    In other words, the so-called “Kerry Plan” to destroy Syria’s chemical weapons appears to already be falling apart. Just moments ago, the UNSC meeting was postponed (reportedly by Russia).

    There are also a lot of concerns about the feasibility of the plan should an agreement be signed.

    For the moment, however, let’s just go on the assumption that world powers did agree to a deal that would put Russia in charge of ensuring that the Assad regime disposed of its weapons. Can either the Putin administration or the Assad regime be trusted to abide by any agreements they make with the international community? Let’s look at recent history to find out.

    Russia Blocks International Progress as Assad’s Crimes Grow

    First, Russia has blocked nearly every UN Security Council resolution, and all of the ones that would hold Assad accountable for his actions. In October of 2011 Russia vetoed the first resolution which would have condemned Assad’s use of violence against protests. At this point, the Syrian crisis was in its simplest form. Not only where there no Al Qaeda aligned rebel groups, there were hardly any rebel groups at all. The rebellion was only starting, and was made up almost entirely of Assad’s own defectors, men who were fleeing for their lives after they refused to kill unarmed protesters. This was, in many ways, the moment where Russia lost its best chance to help end the crisis. At this point it was clear that Assad could not return Syria to the status quo through force, but things had not yet decayed to the point where a transitional government was unthinkable.

    Russia did, however, back an option, in April 2012 – the launch of the Kofi Annan plan. Annan believed that he could find a political solution to the Syrian crisis.

    However, thanks in part to Russian and Chinese obstructionism, the best chance for a political solution had already been lost. On two occasions, the Assad regime had agreed to cooperate with the demands of the Arab League, which wanted to oversee a ceasefire in order to alleviate the humanitarian crisis and foster a political solution. On those occasions, Assad proved that he could not be trusted by failing to meet every single demand that he had agreed to. And Russia proved that it was more interested in watching Assad’s back than in fostering a solution to the Syrian crisis.

    Assad agrees to withdraw troops, then launches the siege of Homs

    In early November of 2011, Assad told the Arab League that he would withdraw tanks and troops from all of his cities, and he would allow peaceful protests to take place. Over the next week, however (each word is a separate link), starting as soon as the words came out of his mouth, not only did Assad continue to kill dozens of civilians, he moved more tanks and artillery into places like Homs (and Daraa and Hama, where there was no insurgency yet), and began to wage what looked like an all out war against his own populace. In fact, this was the beginning of the assault against Homs which remains some of most intense violence that the war has seen to date.

    In December, the Arab League negotiated their second settlement with the regime when Assad agreed to pull its tanks out of Syrian cities in order to allow observers to visit the scenes.. Arab League Observers pushed into Syrian cities only to find that Assad’s troops and tanks were still deployed, and the fighting had never stopped. By January, it was clear that no part of Assad’s promise had been kept, and by February the full brunt of Assad’s tanks an artillery had flattened huge swaths of Homs, one of Syria’s largest and oldest cities, leaving about two thousand dead (the VDC, an interactive database that verifies death tolls, reports that 1853 people were killed in Homs between November 2011 and February 2012 – their database is one of the most conservative with regards to death tolls). Before the siege of Homs, it was rare to hear about daily casualty tolls reaching more than one or two dozen. Since then, the daily death toll has been exponentially higher.

    The Assad regime claimed at the time that it had withdrawn its armed forces from every location except in areas where counter-terrorism operations were being enforced, and so it was in full compliance with the Arab League agreement. In reality it had unleashed its fully fury on Homs, and had increased its crackdown in Daraa, Idlib, and elsewhere.

    This was the point where even the most conciliatory members of the opposition began to realize that Assad could never be trusted. This was the point where even many opposition groups that had been committed to peaceful change realized that an insurgency, or foreign intervention, were the only way out of this crisis.

    Russia Backs its “Historical Friends”

    What did Russia do during this critical period in the history of the Syrian conflict? On November 2nd, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he supported the Arab League initiative, but then he blamed outside forces for provoking the escalation of the conflict by arming “extremists.” It’s noteworthy that there is no evidence that this early on there were a significant amount of weapons coming from outside of Syria, except for the arms that Russia was supplying the regime. In fact, this early on in the conflict, the vast majority of rebels were defectors. It was the siege of Homs between November and February that changed this.

    Then Lavrov went on to give us our key sentence – why is Russia concerned with Syria? Here was his answer:

    “We are very concerned about the fate of this region because we have a lot of friends there with whom we have maintained close and warm relations for decades, with some of them – for centuries. With many countries in the region we have much in common in terms of history, culture and traditions. This is one reason why we cannot ignore what is happening there.”

    Continued...........

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