SyriaExpress :
Project 775/24, BDK46, BSF ropucha class landing ship Novocherkassk 142 transits southbound Bosphorus
Crow Bat--and the integrated Russian/Syrian AD systems are not a threat????
From Haaretz---
For the first time (since decades) Israel suspended fighter jet patrols along Syria'n coastline bc Russia'n military build up
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-21-2015 at 06:44 PM.
SyriaExpress :
Project 775/24, BDK46, BSF ropucha class landing ship Novocherkassk 142 transits southbound Bosphorus
Should be read…………
http://www.interpretermag.com/btr-in...brigade/#10092
Anticipation of a Russian Strike on ISIS in Syria - Novaya Gazeta
18:36 (GMT)
77% of Russians oppose military action in #Syria http://newsland.com/news/detail/id/1244325/ …Novaya Gazeta has published an article today, September 21 on how the Russian military is weighing all the possibilities for delivering a strike on ISIS in the coming week. The Interpreter has made a full translation of the article:
Events in and around Syria are rapidly developing. On Friday [September 18], the first direct telephone conversations in seven months between the defense ministers of Russia and the US took place. Sergei Shoigu and Ashton Carter spoke for about 50 minutes. According to White House spokespersons, the conversation was about those areas where the interests of the countries coincide. Evidently, the reference was to combating the terrorist threat.
On the same day, Syria's armed forces made its most powerful bombing in recent times in the area of the city of Palmyra seized by ISIS militants. (ISIS is a terrorist organization whose activity is banned by court order in Russia.) The Islamists, in turn, executed 56 Syrian military POWs.
The world is on the threshold of great changes.
Novaya Gazeta sources in the offices of military planning and troop deployment of the RF Armed Forces report that Russian specialists with experience in planning operations under conditions of modern maneuvered war with a low concentration of forces are studying the possibility of demonstrating the instruments available to the Kremlin for armed combat in Syria. According to one source, "the operational situation in Syria to some extent is similar to the armed conflict in the ATO zone" [a reference to Ukraine's Anti-Terrorist Operation--The Interpreter].
The main idea consists of implementing some action confirming the seriousness of Russia's intentions either on the eve of, or immediately after President Vladimir Putin's speech at the UN General Assembly on September 28. Options are being reviewed for an air missile strike; a local ground operation of Syrian forces with the support of modern war technology serving our military (a raid, the seizure of an important facility, and so on); a series of artillery strikes. The main and indispensable condition is the effectiveness and visibility, and not the scale.
President at the UN
On the eve of the Russian president's speech, in which he is highly likely to call international terrorism in the person of ISIS humanity's main enemy, and propose instead of confrontation the unification of forces, the views of Western military on the Syrian conflict are distinguished by a certain ambivalence. Everyone acknowledges that without a ground operation, the problem of ISIS cannot be resolved even partially, but they dispute the capacities of Russia and do not wish for an increase in its role in this conflict. Air strikes on the terrorists' positions are being conducted constantly by NATO countries, but substantial changes in the operational situation are not recorded.
In answer to Novaya Gazeta's question, can any success be achieved without concentrating an operationally significant group of Russian Armed Forces in Syria, the minimal number of which Western specialists define as several thousands, our sources noted that from the military perspective, this is an extremely non-trivial task. The operation may be conducted in coordination with armed formations of other sides (the armies of Syria and Iran, Kurds, Alawites, Christians and so on) but without experience of cooperation and firm trust between commanders it is difficult to achieve success. Therefore, according to our source, "if there is no firm assurance of success, it is better not to start." And "although the best minds have been brought in to the planning, it is not a fact at all that the strike will be delivered." Such a failure would cause significant damage to the Kremlin's diplomatic offensive in proposing to bring international efforts in Syria to a new level.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-21-2015 at 07:47 PM.
State Dept's John Kirby on Russian buildup in Syria: The types of capabilities we see flowing in certainly add question as to the intent
RUS FOB LATAKIA buildup continues pic.twitter.com/Avh0auFeNz
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...se/531986.html
Why Russia Is Expanding Its Syrian Naval Base
By Matthew Bodner
Sep. 21 2015 20:46
The Russian military is expanding its tiny naval facility at Tartus on the Syrian coast to handle bigger warships and transport vessels amid a general buildup of Russian forces in territory controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad, the Kommersant newspaper reported Monday, citing military sources.
The news broke as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew with his military and intelligence chiefs to Moscow on Monday to meet with President Vladimir Putin and discuss ways to prevent accidental clashes of Russian and Israeli forces operating in Syria.
Russia in recent weeks has wrong-footed Israel, the U.S. and Europe by beefing up its supply of military hardware to the Syrian government. News reports have alleged that Russia has deployed forces such as Su-30 fighter jets, tanks, armored vehicles and troops to a government-controlled airfield in Latakia.
To better sustain and supply both its own forces and the Syrian government's, Russia has deployed some 1,700 military specialists to its small naval repair station at Tartus, 90 kilometers to the south of Latakia — a dramatic increase in personnel at a facility that until recently was staffed by a handful of military men and civilian contractors, Kommersant reported.
“They are outfitting and guarding the facility, and are restructuring the dock,” an unidentified soldier stationed at Tartus told Kommersant, adding that the specialists should be rotated out of Syria in three months.
This was confirmed by an unidentified source in Russia's General Staff, the military's highest command authority, Kommersant reported. The General Staff source said that the expansion of Tartus into a full-scale naval base was not connected with any imminent Russian intervention in Syria's civil war.
Instead, after its expansion, “[Tartus] will simply be able to accommodate first- and second-rank ships from the Russian Mediterranean flotilla,” the source said, referring to the Russian designation for ships ranging in size from large cruisers to destroyers and large landing ships and transports.
This points to a two-pronged vision for the future of Russia's Syrian naval outpost — currently Russia's only pit-stop in the Mediterranean, said Dr. Theodore Karasik, a UAE-based military and geopolitical expert.
“The Russian port in Tartus, although small, is a main entry point for Russian equipment to support the Syrian government,” Karasik said. “[However], Russia seeks to expand Tartus not only because of the required throughput necessary to help the Syrian government, but also to increase Moscow's presence in the eastern Mediterranean.”
Historical Foothold
As the destination of the so-called Syrian Express — a Russian naval supply route from the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol — Tartus has long served as a kind of beachhead for Russian arms and equipment deliveries to Syria.
Moscow has since 1956 supplied weapons to the Syrian government, and by 1991, the total value of Soviet arms deliveries to Damascus had reached $26 billion, according to Kommersant. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, arms sales have continued, though their value is unclear.
Heavy equipment such as Bastion coastal defense missiles, T-80 battle tanks, and Su-27 fighters have been delivered to the Syrian government since 2010, Kommersant reported, citing an unidentified source at state arms export agency Rosoboronexport.
Tartus has been an entry point for Russian arms deliveries to Syria since 1971, when it was leased to Moscow, but the base was doubly significant for serving as a home away from home for the Soviet Mediterranean flotilla.
But this ended with the fall of the Soviet Union, when the Russian military was forced to retrench, and the 1990s saw the scale of operations at Tartus drastically diminish.
“It hasn't been used much, nor has it been properly renovated,” said Yury Barmin, a Russian expert in the Middle East arms trade and politics. “Tartus can't accommodate any of the major Russian warships, which is why upgrading it makes sense.”
By the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Tartus was manned by only a handful of Russian military servicemen and civilian contractors, and the single remaining floating dock could only receive the smallest of Russia's ocean-going naval vessels.
Russia has been looking to rebuild its presence at Tartus since at least 2010, when the former head of the navy, Vladimir Vysotsky, announced plans to equip the facility to handle ships as large as Russia's only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.
That work was meant to be completed by 2012, and be carried out in two phases — first, establishing a military base, and then expanding the naval facilities. The breakout of the Syrian civil war stifled these plans, and only now that Russia is stepping up support for Assad's regime have they been dusted off.
“The base would offer Russian military equipment easy access to Syria, because right now Russian landing ships primarily use the port at [nearby] Latakia, a province under constant rebel offensive,” Barmin said.
Mandated Expansion
Russia's decision to overhaul the Tartus facility and expand it into a proper naval base for larger vessels speaks not only to Moscow's intention to provide significant levels of military aid to the Syrian government, but make good on its promise to project power into the Mediterranean.
In July, Russia announced updates to its national naval doctrine — a document that describes how Russia intends to use its navy — that called for a return to more frequent patrols and operations in areas such as the Mediterranean, where the Soviet Union once had a formidable presence.
But in order to support these operations, which will be conducted by the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol, with occasional support from the Northern Fleet, Russia needs ports in the Mediterranean to dock ships for refueling and maintenance.
“Expanding the Tartus facility and turning it into a naval base would provide the Russian fleet with a logistical advantage sparing it constant trips back to the Black Sea through the Bosphorus,” Barmin said.
Although Tartus appears to be the primary focus, it isn't the only place that Russia is looking to base its ships, Karasik said.
“Already, the Russian Defense Ministry is deep into making plans for other ports around the Mediterranean, notably in North Cyprus, but also maritime access in Egypt, in Libya under a new national government, Greece and perhaps Italy,” Karasik said.
“Clearly, the Kremlin seeks a maritime hub system in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Oman,” Karasik added.
...acknowledged as 'having the most free and sincere media there is on this planet'...Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Anyway, the Su-25s did arrive meanwhile - but (and contrary to Su-30s) - per transport aircraft.
Su-24s that overflew Iran are still nowhere to be seen at Bassel Assad, so guess they were Syrian after all (or Russians decided to base them at T.4/Tiyas AB, where Syrian Su-24s are based too).
That's no 'consensus' but Israeli military censorship.--right now I would not challenge their own figures as the same figure is showing up in Israeli media--there seems to be a general consensus the figures are correct..
In cases of this kind, the author has to cite foreign source, or the censorship would blot out half the article. This means anything else but that some famed 'Israeli intelligence' is 'auto-confirming' figures in question.
...and more often than enough, such sources are used by the Israeli media because they are in Israeli interest: whatever appears 'threatening for existence of Israel' is 'good news' there.
Must laugh here. How 'bad' the IASF can't fly 24/7 along - and inside - Syrian airspace at will.
YES, baby: that makes Russians a 'deadly threat'.
Confirmed: SU-25s Join Russia's Flankers in Latakia via @bellingcat by @CSBiggers https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...rs-in-latakia/ …
How come #Russia & #Iran intervention in #Syria doesn't need #UNSC resolution but others need a mandate to help Syrians?
Propaganda video claims Uzbek jihadist committed a sucide attack vs Syrian army in Fuah, Idlib province on Sep 19 http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=510_1442857617 …
IF and that is a big IF---if the Russian aircraft number stationed in in Syria is 50--have not seen any confirmation though of this number--IF 50 then there are more Russian aircraft in Syria than the entire UK RAF has.
Just as the 400 tanks Russia has moved into eastern Ukraine as well as 1000 IFV/APCs are more than the total number of such armored vehicles of four NOW close to five NATO armies taken together.
Russian heavy artillery is in the hundreds as well--the German Army currently only has two artillery BNs.
The US Army heavy artillery in Europe has maybe when all are counted 20 and that is with the 173rd Airborne sitting in Italy.
Right now the Russians have a deadly mix of weapons/weapons systems in Syria that would in effect allow for an immediate offensive at the point of their choosing that the anti Assad forces have not seen in the past.
There was a comment I posted yesterday that indicates a new Russia offensive within the week which actually is now fully possible.
What is interesting is that if they go over to an offensive in such a short time--this would mean they have been planning this for about one year based on their decision planning cycles.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-22-2015 at 05:36 AM.
Wait for a while longer for the situation to fester just a little. There is still no certainity the Su-24s that passed Homs are actually Russian: it's not only that they are the only tactical combat aircraft involved in this affair actually 'flown-in' to Syria (all the others were brought in Antonov transports); but they wore SyAAF markings too.
So, until they appear at Hmeemmem AB (military part of Bassel al-Assad IAP), it's anything but 'certain' that they are actually 'Russian'.
They are also nowhere to be seen on photos like the one bellow, showing four Su-30s and a row of about 12 Su-25s at Hmeemmem.
Means: presently, it's anything but sure that the RuAF has '50 combat aircraft deployed in Syria'. All that can be supported by evidence is '16'.
Ah yes, and, regarding this:
SA-22 are no IADS.
There is presently no trace of deployment of something like SA-17s and/or SA-20s.
Sure, a deployment of this size would require 'more' - even more so because the insurgents have captured several 'Maysaloon' SSMs, two weeks ago ('Maysaloon' is Syrian designation for Iranian-made Nazeat ballistic missile with a range of about 75km) - but presently that's not the case. With other words, back to old military addagio: 'hurry up - and wait' (to see if...).
***********
Some interesting 'insights' about Russian deployment to Syria were provided in the following article by al-Masdar News - a staunchly pro-regime outlet. Al-Masdar is often posting sheer propaganda, but as so often, 'every lie contains at least 50% truth':
Means: at least according to al-Masdar, Sukhois were (literaly) 'shipped' to Syria....Syrian Arab Army’s Central Command approved the Russian Navy’s recent delivery of Sukhoi fighter jets through the Syrian port-city of Tartous.
I do not buy this outright, though: firstly, ports of Lattakia and Tartous are in local city centres. One can't unload so many such distinct and obvious 'loads' and then tow them around the city without this being observed by thousands. Secondly, Hmeemmem is much too far away from either, Tartous and Lattakia for Sukhois to be unloaded there and then - for example - towed all the way to Bassel Assad IAP, in disassembled condition (means: 'fuselage only' on landing gear, but without wings etc.) - 'unobserved'. At least a few photos would appear since ways are quite long and easy to see by local population.
Instead, it's de-facto 'certain' they were flown in on board Antonov transports - which stands in opposition to the fashion in which Su-24s with SyAAF markings were flown in (via Casspian Sea, Iran and Iraq).
Another sentence in that report is indicating something that's near-absurd:
By side the hogwash with 'civilian-controlled NDF': but what is absurd here is that IRGC-QF-established, and IRGC-QF/Hezbollah-trained NDF is now going to be... what...? ...'re-trained' by Russians?Russian military personnel are currently training and advising the civilian-led “National Defense Forces” (NDF) in the provinces of Latakia (Slunfeh), Tartous (Safita), and Homs (Wadi Al-Nasara area); this scheduled training is set to conclude in early November this year.
If there is one thing that the IRGC-QF/Hezbollah did really good about its training of the NDF, then it's the fact that they custom-tailored the NDF to COIN warfare. Significant portion of training included 'hearts & minds' aspects.
Sure, and as is well-known, Syrian officers and other ranks of the NDF never followed their advice: there was never interest to do so.
But, Russians - plus Assad, I suppose - are now expecting regime's military to 'work better' after being 're-trained by Russians', whose essence of COIN-tactics is 'flatten them'...? :roll:
...sigh...
Whatever: if Russians are indeed 're-training' the NDF, then there will be no 'offensive' for at least 6-8 weeks. No point in rushing regime's thugs to the frontline if they can't function the way Russian generals intend them to function.
Syria has been sold to the Iranians
A timely article, using in country and external quotes:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...a-and-wariness
davidbfpo
Crow Bat--well the Russian surge towards five brigades is underway---
BreakingReport
#Russia to deploy 2000 fresh soldiers at #Latakia air base.
"Only the first stage".
Plus 1700 in #Tartus.
We are now at 3700 --well on the way to five full scale Russian brigades--betting most of airborne are from Pskov their only fully combat alert airborne division and two Spetsnaz brigades.
Remember Russia has stationed approximately 9K troops in eastern Ukraine and that build up took over eight months--in last than two weeks they are at 3700 almost 50% of the eastern Ukraine numbers.
Russia is deadly serious about this move and the West has completely again underestimated Putin.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-22-2015 at 12:31 PM.
US intel imagery is calling it 28 total and some European sources are calling it 50 --say split the middle at 33---still the Russians a shy 17 from being stronger in Syria than the entire UK RAF. the interesting thing is the Russian masking operations--first you do not see the aircraft then they are suddenly on the ground---they got a lot of practice flying with their transponders off over the Baltic this summer.
Pentagon releases satellite images of Russian aircraft in Syria
http://www.unian.info/world/1130803-...-in-syria.html … pic.twitter.com/LXoXZBIZ2o
Youn will notice on the commen posted yesterday from a Russian military type--they are anticipating a major offensive led by the Russians in about one week.
IF the figures of now 3700 in country is accurate and since it is the Russians who are confirming and the tactical aircraft are in country--the idea of a Russian general offensive against selected targets is not so far fetched anymore.
The armor count is also increasing 12 T90s and 35 BTRs/IFV--and the Syrian Express is still sending in freighter after freighter.
What is missing from view are the BM30s that were used recently with cluster munitions.
If the Russians throw a tactical brigade supported by armor, excellent intel/EW abilities with drone support and SU25s with the SU30s flying high cover at a specific front line--anti Assad forces will not hold long.
IS is not the target for the first round--check which opposition group is closer--that is the first target---the Russians have defined all anti Assad forces as terrorists bottom line and right now IS is now where close territory wise to threatening the Russians nor Assad.
IMAGES of #Syria torture on display at UN: 'Imperative we do not look away' http://tinyurl.com/pkwxrsa
pic.twitter.com/GZIbpVl21y
Russia to deploy 2,000 military personnel to Syria
13:23, 22 September 2015 The Financial Times
According to sources speaking to the Financial Times, Russia will deploy 2,000 military personnel to its new air base in Latakia. A Syria advisor to Moscow, who wished to remain anonymous, told the paper that the 2,000 military personnel will make up only the first stage of Russia's Syria mission.
Engineers, fighter plane crews, and soldiers will be deployed to secure the air base. Sources could not confirm earlier reports about the delivery of surface-to-air missiles and fighter planes to Latakia.
Due to fears that the increasing Russian military presence in Syria may upset the balance of power in the country, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin on Monday. At the meeting, Putin said Russia's actions in the Middle East "always were and will be very responsible" and reassured the Israeli Prime Minister that Syrian forces do not pose a threat to Israel.
Russia is to deploy 2,000 military personnel to its new air base near the Syrian port city of Latakia, signaling the scale of Moscow’s involvement in the war-torn country. The deployment “forms the first phase of the mission there,” according to an adviser on Syria policy in Moscow.
Earlier this week, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that more than 1,700 Russian military personnel are currently stationed at the Syrian port of Tartus. They have reportedly been deployed to the Russian Navy's logistics and maintenance support center.
Various media sources have been reporting on Russia’s growing military presence in Syria since early September. Russia has claimed that its military cooperation with Syria is legal and in line with contracts for weapons supplies. Russian authorities say there are no Russian soldiers participating in the fighting in Syria.
Total Russian aircraft now in Syria;
12 SU-24s
12 SU-25s
4 SU-30Ms
now that on the ground pic appears, RU media reacts, saying "supposedly Russian warplane sat pix" @finriswolf
Hezbollah-press "Al-Akhbar" says #Russia'n military delegation visited #YPG military commanders & frontlines in #Hasaka #Syria
Syria Rebels shelling small industrial area at western entrance of #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWp35UXFv_Y …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...37.069695&z=16 …
Syria #Damascus Heavy clashes in mountains west of #Douma suburb continues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDWp6xlh-uM …
Syria #Assad-forces handed over World Heritage #Palmyra 2 #IslamicState 4 int. headlines & to defend Jazal oil wells
Syria Clashes btw Jaish al Islam & #Assad-forces at mountain ridge overlooking highway #Damascus #Homs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBooooxA-Eo …
Link?
And otherwise, I see that relaxed. This situation is so screwed up that there is absolutely nothing I can do - except speak as openly as possible about all the nonsense going on there.
So, from my POV, they are all welcome in Alawistan: Russian troops, Don Cossacks, Slavic Legion, and Russian Jihadists sent there by the GRU - and whoever else. May Syrian soil be soft to them: JAN, Ahrar and others will certainly not be.
No clue if it's calling it 28 total, but it's showing 16 only.US intel imagery is calling it 28 total...
...because they are bunching everything together and have no clue that IRIAF F-4 pilots that escorted those Il-78s and Su-24s through Iranian airspace, saw SyAAF markings on Fencers....and some European sources are calling it 50
Unless these Su-24s appear on some sat-image of Hmeemmem AB, and in the light of 'mysterious appearance' of a camouflaged Su-24MK (or M2) at some airshow outside Sukhoi Aircraft Factory in Novosibirsk, last month (see attachment; supposedly, the aircraft in question belonged to a batch ordered by Tripoli back in 1988, but never delivered to Libya), I count them as 'Syrian Arab Air Force', not Russian.
...which is quite an exaggeration even for a hyperbole. Re-check your figures, please.--still the Russians a shy 17 from being stronger in Syria than the entire UK RAF.
There was a purpose of my post containing that report by al-Masdar News. This was to show that the Russians have 'shipped' all of their aircraft (at least those definitely confirmed as already in Syria) per transport aircraft....the interesting thing is the Russian masking operations--first you do not see the aircraft then they are suddenly on the ground---they got a lot of practice flying with their transponders off over the Baltic this summer.
Word is that nobody sane would load an 'active' combat aircraft into a transport; i.e. all the sources of power are turned off - and thus there are no active IFF-transponders either.
Otherwise, stories about Russians some sort of 'smuggling' a gang of their Su-30s for hundreds of kilometres through Romanian or Bulgarian, and then Serbian, Macedonian, and Greek (or even Turkish) airspace - supposedly in radar shadows of their An-125 and Il-78 transports - are good for small kids.
I accept that European borders and NATO-memberships are not easy to understand for most of Americans (including certain gentlemen in State Department that have launched this hoax), but this doesn't mean that local air forces are not doing their duties.
Last edited by CrowBat; 09-22-2015 at 02:19 PM.
Although less capable than the Su-30SM, the stationing of Su-24M2s is little surprising given the SyAAF is also operating this variant, which were all recently upgraded from MK standard to M2 standard in Rzhev, Russia. 819 Squadron, responsible for operating the Su-24M2 in Syrian service, continues to fly with eleven operational airframes based at T4, Central Syria. The possible housing of RuAF Su-24M2s at this airbase would help ease logistics, and making use of the extensive infrastructure already available there would be a sensible choice.
Russian Airforce Tu-154 RA-85041 from Tehran landing in Latakia now, was in Baghdad yesterday from Orenburg
Many credible reports Twitter took down accounts and tweets about the latest Train+Equip crew handing over weapons to Islamists.
This is about the 75 latest US train and equip troops that arrived in Syria along with 12 technical.
All accounts that wrote about Atareb Rebels and Nusra story have been suspended. I was obliged to delete my previous tweets.
Twitter was forcing many to remove their comments if it pertained to the hand over.
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