Al Sadr Fled Iraq, Fearing U.S. Bombs

[Rob Thornton]

Amazing what happens when you turn the lights on

[tequila]

Sadr aides deny he has gone to Iran.

[Rob Thornton]

Yea - I querried one of our interpreters who say the news reports Sadr in Najaf. However, its a start.

[goesh]

My gut reaction to hearing this was, 'the old bandit has gone on vacation for a couple of weeks' - resting in some posh home with top chef cooking and who knows what else. Maybe he went to have weight reduction surgery..?? Off subject but reportedly 18 revolutionary guards took a hit near the Paki border via car bomb, but it sounds more like drug dealers/smugglers taking revenge.

[TROUFION]

1. The carbomb attack against the Iranian Republican Guard on the Afghan-Pakistan border may not have been motivated by anything but money, drugs and vengeance but it does demonstrate that Iran is susceptible to the same tactics that our troops face in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not that I advocate that type of warfare, just an observation.

2. If in fact Sadr did run is of little consequence, what would be/is important is how we exploit the rumor that he ran away. If he is in hiding he cannot come out and say he didn't/hasn't run. If he comes out publicly, in person, we can grab him. Either way the situation can be exploited: he is either a coward who left his militia men behind to save his own skin or he comes out in the open. I see a great opportunity for propaganda to work in our favor.

-T

[SWJED]

... If in fact Sadr did run is of little consequence, what would be/is important is how we exploit the rumor that he ran away. If he is in hiding he cannot come out and say he didn't/hasn't run. If he comes out publicly, in person, we can grab him. Either way the situation can be exploited: he is either a coward who left his militia men behind to save his own skin or he comes out in the open. I see a great opportunity for propaganda to work in our favor.

-T

When I first read about the Sadr episode last night I thought - well, an opportunity to use IO to our favor for once....

[goesh]

This John Q. Civilian's belief is that he was called in for a face-to-face over the threat to Sistani his militia poses and some ultra radical splintering occuring in his ranks. He's got some serious butchers at work and he may well be on the carpet and being told to tighten the reins a bit. I imagine he will resurface shortly. Nasrallah of hizbullah went to Iran too for a while during the last IDF campaign and returned shortly there after. There is alot of sub rosa nuance here with this and at least we have given them a bit of a propoganda hit by announcing that he was running for his life.

[marct]

When I first read about the Sadr episode last night I thought - well, an opportunity to use IO to our favor for once....

Only if it's handled really carefully. I'll bet he's already setting up his own IO to tie into the myth of Imam Husayn and Ashura. Any remaining members of the Mahdi Army would be incorporated into that mythic structure as martyrs and his own "flight" will be viewed as a recreation of the Hidden Imam myth.

Marc