Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps

[Bill Moore]

SWJED and Jed, thanks for the articles, it shows how little the open source community knows about this issue, and we're starting to see the counter spin from Iran in the article Jed posted (perhaps). Jed, unless I missed it, the article you posted side stepped the main issue, which is we're claiming (we know) that someone from Iran is providing material support in the form of weapons (EFPs to start with) to various actors in Iraq. The article stated the Quds were not attacking Americans. That is two separate issues. I didn't see one question about the Quds providing material support? It almost appears to be a deliberate side step, what's your take?

This is one area where we're going to have to trust the intelligence community. Regardless of whether or not the arms is coming from lower level mugs conducting illicit arms smuggling (in this case it appears doubtful) or from the government, someone on the Iranian side of the border should be losing sleep tonight for what we may do to them tomorrow.

[Jedburgh]

...unless I missed it, the article you posted side stepped the main issue, which is we're claiming (we know) that someone from Iran is providing material support in the form of weapons (EFPs to start with) to various actors in Iraq. The article stated the Quds were not attacking Americans. That is two separate issues. I didn't see one question about the Quds providing material support? It almost appears to be a deliberate side step, what's your take?

I agree with you; the interview deliberately avoided the question of material support, and just focused on deconstructing the accusations of direct targeting by the Iranians. The statement "Iranian policy in Iraq is to give proper training and support to Iran's natural allies in Iraq" is loaded with underlying meaning - the implication is that such material support is involved. I personally believe that is the case - no, the Iranians aren't directly engaging US or Coalition forces, but they are providing training and a unknown degree of material support to militia elements that do target US and Coalition forces. However, OSINT-wise, there are a huge number of constradictions and information gaps and any "conclusion" reached through such sources is questionable.

[SWJED]

... Regardless of whether or not the arms are coming from lower level mugs conducting illicit arms smuggling (in this case it appears doubtful) or from the government, someone on the Iranian side of the border should be losing sleep tonight for what we may do to them tomorrow.

... completely. Should the former be true (rouge elements of the Iranian military aparatus), it is time the Iranian government step up - take responsibility and action to curb the Quds' actions. Should the later be true (government sanction of Iraq operations) then we have a serious problem that cannot be ignored or 'wished away'.

I am having a very difficult time understanding the 'official stances' of many of the governments of Islamic countries. It seems to me that they proclaim a stance and go about their merry way supporting the very elements that for the most part undermine their 'for public consumption' press releases.

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 16 Aug 07: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the Al Quds Force, and Other Intelligence and Paramilitary Forces

This paper is a "Rough Working Draft" that has no intro, summary or conclusion - it simply lays out what CSIS has put together through open sources. It is an interesting document in that it puts a lot of disparate pieces together, but there are no major surprises and plenty of information gaps. Unusually for CSIS (in my opinion of their past product) it possesses a surplus of conjecture. Perhaps unavoidable given the the nature of much of the open source material available on the subject.