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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

  1. #3201
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    Two of #Ukraine's servicemen suffered injuries during combat actions near #Zaitseve and #Maiorsk.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Nuff ibn Said does not stand for a good argument
    Hah

    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    I'll rephrase my point if you don't get it:
    1. Do you have any evidence Russia will cede Crimea back to Ukraine just because of NATO agressive stance?
    2. Do you have any evidence NATO is ready to start conventional war just to bring Crimea back to Ukraine?
    If you do have it, everyone here would be grateful to learn something new.
    1. No. I doubt the Ukraine can get the Crimea back anytime soon. It MAY be possible to re-do the referendum however, perhaps under EU or OSCE auspices, in order to satisfy Brussels and Washington. But then again, I was referring to the Ukraine acting unilaterally to seize Crimea and/or Donbass if Russia is sufficiently distracted in Syria. Why would NATO be involved?

    If say Damascus/Teheran dragged in 10,000 Russian troops, the Ukrainian Army found itself in possession of TOWs and MANPADs, the Gulf Arabs set Chechnya/Dagestan alight and the Japanese menaced the Kuriles, there MAY be a window.

    2. Again, why would NATO start a war over the Crimea or Donbass? Ukraine is not part of NATO.

    The Ukrainian military has built up considerably, and cannot maintain its current capabilities forever without wrecking the economy. Use it or lose it. My questions were if and when, which you never addressed.

    My issue is that as in 1938-1945, the Western Europeans are prepared to throw the East-Central Europeans under the bus. And yet the British and French were so eager for NATO to provide support for their little Libyan adventure, where they could field test the Eurofighter and Rafale...

    So Ukraine is on its own.

  3. #3203
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    Default Low Rouble

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    ...if oil falls to $35, the dollar should soar to 94 rubles...
    It's honestly a good time to get into Russian bonds, particularly from SOEs such as Gazprom. I wouldn't touch the stock market as yet...

  4. #3204
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    Can the US backed by allies in NATO-East and in the Middle East squeeze Russia on two fronts while also bleeding Iran white?
    - OK, I might be misinterpreted this sentence, and you just like to speculate on what-if scenarios, successfully summarizing the most probable one:

    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    So Ukraine is on its own.
    let's look at your options:
    - If say Damascus/Teheran dragged in 10,000 Russian troops,
    - the Ukrainian Army found itself in possession of TOWs and MANPADs,
    - the Gulf Arabs set Chechnya/Dagestan alight
    - and the Japanese menaced the Kuriles, there MAY be a window.
    - What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
    - Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
    - You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
    - Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)
    Last edited by mirhond; 12-14-2015 at 11:18 PM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  5. #3205
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    - OK, I might be misinterpreted this sentence, and you just like to speculate on what-if scenarios, successfully summarizing the most probable one:



    let's look at your options:


    - What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
    - Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
    - You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
    - Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)
    comrade mirhond---are you stating for all to read that the UAF is now in the envious position of literally stopping any further Russian troops and her mercenary attacks---there have been two general offensives in the last eight months that have basically gone nowhere.

    Meanwhile there is an old Lenin statement that the revolution will eat its children which is now occurring among the so called separatists....

    If we look at the tank on tank---for more than a year the Russian army and her mercenaries had an advantage of 500 tanks and over 1000 IFVs---now the UAF can actually match numbers for numbers BUT here is the interesting point the UAF has the better trained forces and especially the lower and mid level officers and SGTs.

    You can that in the constant attempts by the mercenaries to break through in small units that are largely stopped on their tracks with loses.

    The quality of the mercenary fighters is reflected in the latest 12 KIAs coming back from Syria ---they have vastly underestimated the combat experience of the Syria anti Assad forces.

    Will be interesting to see if more "volunteer" for Syria after the burial of these 12.

  6. #3206
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post

    let's look at your options:

    - What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
    - Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
    - You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
    - Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)
    1. Russia can only count on 70,000 to 100,000 professional soldiers out of those 800,000 (Western equivalent), yet this is across a vast country with many time zones. The Ukrainians only need local superiority.

    2. I recall that despite overwhelming Russian numerical and materiel superiority in Chechnya, only a deal with the Devil could turn that war into a an ersatz victory.

    3. Yes, and the gorgeous Kyiv policewoman will stop the separatists... In any event all the Japanese need to is encourage Moscow to reinforce the Kuriles with Spetsnaz...

  7. #3207
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    Appears that the entire Russian FM cannot seem to remember that they Russia has not implemented a single point in Minsk 2 and yes even OSCE agrees with me........

    MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
    #Ryabkov: #US makes no effort to secure the compliance with the Minsk agreements by Kiev

    http://tass.ru/en/politics/844056
    pic.twitter.com/DLmQ2dEimK

    If I remember Minsk 2 well--there is a paragraph that requires Russia to pull out all of their troops ALL 9,000 of them.......

  8. #3208
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    Putin is now desperate to get in front of the Russian economic collapse with oil headed to 30 USD per barrel and the Rubel to over 100 to the USD.

    Russia Update: Putin Slashes Fine for Truckers with Overweight Loads, Raises Minimum Wage
    http://www.interpretermag.com/russia...15-2015/#11499 pic.twitter.com/aUThhEDOFn

  9. #3209
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    - OK, I might be misinterpreted this sentence, and you just like to speculate on what-if scenarios, successfully summarizing the most probable one:



    let's look at your options:


    - What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
    - Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
    - You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
    - Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)
    Majority of 2,515 self-selected Russians name Putin "liar of the year" on Russian official-looking twitter survey. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ar/552707.html

  10. #3210
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    Reference Russian shot down of MH17......

    Aric Toler @AricToler


    This is Digital Globe satellite image for the Ukrainian base, at 11:08am local time, 17/7/2014. Buk is there, yeah? pic.twitter.com/pamcPUZvrB

    These are the Russian ones. Buk is gone and in the field by Zaroshchenske at 11:32am. pic.twitter.com/aOGlcDBqgx

    This is how long it takes to go. Was this thing going 200kmph to get there in 24 minutes? pic.twitter.com/DBjtCRB3rI

    And if you argue about time zones -- go ahead, it only works for local time. With Moscow time, their narrative is even patchier.

  11. #3211
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    Turkish ship in the way of Russia hijacking oil platforms contested by Ukraine
    pic.twitter.com/dKParWKdLM
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-dece...-hijacking-oil

    Russia grossly violated international maritime law-State Border Guard Service on "Boiko platforms"
    http://en.censor.net.ua/n365246
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-15-2015 at 08:28 PM.

  12. #3212
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    Reportedly 10 UAF soldiers wounded today by russian mortar shelling at #Krasnohorivka and nearby villages http://society.lb.ua/war/2015/12/15/...poluchili.html

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    Reference Russian info warfare..........

    Kremlin Trolls @KremlinTrolls
    Soviet Active Measures in the US 1986-87..
    Applies today in #Putin's #Russia.

    http://americasurvival.org/wp-conten...e_Measures.pdf
    pic.twitter.com/0KXadImwJ8

    Kremlin Trolls ‏@KremlinTrolls 1h1 hour ago
    #KremlinTrolls get deeply embedded in anti-Kremlin communities, then radically change their "views" once activated.��

    Russian info warfare now directed fully against Montenegro.....trying to split NATO......
    Moscow calls on Montenegro to hold referendum on joining NATO
    http://www.unian.info/world/1213744-...ning-nato.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-16-2015 at 01:55 PM.

  14. #3214
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    MORE Russian nuclear threats.........as normal these days from them.......

    Rus Commander Karakaev: US missile defense System cannot counter Russian Nukes
    http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2015/...cannot-counter
    pic.twitter.com/DMxc5k4TvY

  15. #3215
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    Russia's energy bridge to Crimea is poised to launch its 2nd line soon. It won't be enough.
    https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/12/16...ling-blackouts

  16. #3216
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    Russian nuclear weapons have arrived in #Crimea - Dzhemilev
    http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-n...ys-555248.html

    If correct, this increases probability Russian Forces will move to seize Mariupol & Odessa flanks of Fortress Crimea https://twitter.com/uatodaytv/status/677137579758759936

  17. #3217
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    Donetsk 21:17
    Towards the airport combat is on, shooting.
    https://twitter.com/HuAdvokatos/stat...05955990417409

    Donetsk 22:15
    Kyivskyi ds - The fourth salvo in the last 5 minutes (mortar?)
    https://twitter.com/AlfaNubovsky/sta...20442365673472

    Russia creates jumping-off ground for its Air Forces in Belarus for possible invasion of Ukraine.
    http://en.censor.net.ua/n365348

    Kyiv police defused a bomb hidden under a truck
    pic.twitter.com/YnKSyLZuKC
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/16-dece...-under-a-truck

    Winter uniform of Russian militants in Luhansk region BUT no snow to be seen for miles thus white stands out nicely.....
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/16-dece...nts-in-luhansk
    pic.twitter.com/0jKgZF8pBo

    On the border of #Zaporizhye region spotted 4 Russian Mi-8 helicopters
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/16-dece...gion-spotted-4
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-16-2015 at 09:14 PM.

  18. #3218
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    Humor......

    Novorossiya Ministry of Emergency Situations sends #Crimea the magic energy capsules found last year in #Donbas
    pic.twitter.com/ruVMgUYwH2

  19. #3219
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    Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins

    ZDF documentary on Putin and his wars, including evidence of Russian T72B3 tanks in Ukraine
    http://www.zdf.de/zdfzeit/machtmensc...-41341490.html
    pic.twitter.com/YxtfTQiODT
    In German........
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-16-2015 at 09:44 PM.

  20. #3220
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    Knowledgeable US experts agree US defenses pose no threat to #Russia missiles. So why does Moscow fuss so much about missile defense?



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