Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

[OUTLAW 09]

If one takes the average attack numbers of the intensive shellings and constant ground attacks we are activity now in the actual third war phase and no where close to a ceasefire.

Actually one could even call it a "fighting ceasefire" if anything.


Andriy Lysenko: Militants have violated the ceasefire 100 times over the past dayhttp://uacrisis.org/30293-ukrainian-...za-minulu-dobu …

19:09 #Horlivka @Miloviche North/northwest: heavy [weapons work] heard

19:59 #Donetsk @PVB40 [fb] "I can hear explosions in #Pisky area, something heavy"

19:50 #Horlivka @77bot1 Intense battle in the north in #Zaytseve area, "RUS are having regilar evening attack"

20:07 #Pisky @AMykhailova It pounds. Small arms, AGL
Peski, it's showtime. machineguns, AGLs.

20:06 #Donetsk @PVB40 [fb] Gvardeyka, #Makeevka: heavy singles are audible from the northwest

20:17 #Avdeevka @owl_ok Rumble

20:04 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Artillery volleys from Lisniy area, 4 tubes at least

Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy
20:10 Ceased (about 20 shots)
20:18 Again shelling from the same place
20:21 Intense fire ceased

20:11 #Horlivka @77bot1 [Battle sounds] in Mayorsk area too

Horlivka, loud.

20:20 #Donetsk #Makeevka @nixer79 Strong arty volleys fr/the area north/north-eastward fr/Grigoriev ettles started, 3-4 tubes

20:20 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Quiet as before. Mine shaft dir'n: sporadic shooting, #Krasnohorivka dir'n:massive booms

Donetsk-Makeevka border, something heavy, outgoing

20:45 #Avdeevka @bamr69 Impacts on #Opytne area. Heavy ones again

DNR soc net community: "Artillery of DNR is ready to attack UA troops and waiting orders to free the Motherland". https://twitter.com/Realuran/status/627071541637959680 …

@xuilolala incoming to Avdeevka.

Peski - battle, Makeevka/Chervonogvardeyski st - shells Avdeevka, Horlivka - war action ongoing, landings

Krasnogorivka/Staromikhailivka, Horlivka - ongoing battles

[OUTLAW 09]

Tymchuk: Russia is deploying more & more artillery, sending in more soldiers (non-Slavs), & intensifying the shelling of Ukrainian positions

Read an advance report on fire support trends in the Russo-Ukraine conflict today. The trends are disturbing.

UAS surveillance plus Russian thermobaric artillery rounds means that light infantry forces are either dug in or well done.

Russians also use DPICM plus those thermobaric rounds. We'll soon have neither.

In a combined DPICM/thermobaric fire mission from Russian MLRS lasting 3 minutes, two Ukrainian mechanized battalions were wiped out.

Artillery is causing 85% (!) of casualties on both sides.

you can cross Eastern Ukraine jumping through thermobaric ordnance and don't touch the ground

This conflict is putting tactical development into hyperdrive. Increasing use of combined arms companies. US way behind.

combined arms as a core competency has been neglected in defense focus for nearly 20 years

Russia mastered loop from UAS to IDF. We haven't.

C-RAM and C-UAS as much needed as longer range/superior performance artillery capabilities

Russian losses of UAVs are staggering even for a "limited" conflict, if Ukrainians got better C-UAS systems that'll help a lot

Russia is spreading artillery in battery size down to maneuver battalion level. Army concentrating it at division level. (DIVARTY)

Smaller loop between maneuver and fires = faster, more responsive integration, which is vital.

[OUTLAW 09]

Jews from occupied by Russia-led terrorists eastern #Ukraine seek refuge from Russian invasion http://www.wsj.com/articles/debunkin...yth-1438285884 …

youtube.com/watch?v=KmpCHreJnrI … 'All volunteers here,all unpaid.Everyone brings money here fr #Russia to help.'#LOL #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Iu78K6vjXm

Latitude 67N SIGINT @uascan
@uascan RUAF strategic air forces sw marker W up :20

Ponomarev (Russian MP, now in exile): Putin has several plans for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine ready & is now waiting for the right time

[OUTLAW 09]

Tymchuk: Russia is deploying more & more artillery, sending in more soldiers (non-Slavs), & intensifying the shelling of Ukrainian positions

Read an advance report on fire support trends in the Russo-Ukraine conflict today. The trends are disturbing.

UAS surveillance plus Russian thermobaric artillery rounds means that light infantry forces are either dug in or well done.

Russians also use DPICM plus those thermobaric rounds. We'll soon have neither.

In a combined DPICM/thermobaric fire mission from Russian MLRS lasting 3 minutes, two Ukrainian mechanized battalions were wiped out.

Artillery is causing 85% (!) of casualties on both sides.

you can cross Eastern Ukraine jumping through thermobaric ordnance and don't touch the ground

This conflict is putting tactical development into hyperdrive. Increasing use of combined arms companies. US way behind.

combined arms as a core competency has been neglected in defense focus for nearly 20 years

Russia mastered loop from UAS to IDF. We haven't.

C-RAM and C-UAS as much needed as longer range/superior performance artillery capabilities

Russian losses of UAVs are staggering even for a "limited" conflict, if Ukrainians got better C-UAS systems that'll help a lot

Russia is spreading artillery in battery size down to maneuver battalion level. Army concentrating it at division level. (DIVARTY)

Smaller loop between maneuver and fires = faster, more responsive integration, which is vital.

Russian UAV video depicts its use as a forward artillery observer for 152mm SPGs and then for BDA after the shelling to confirm target destruction.

June 2015, RUS are shelling UKR positions (RUS UAV video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3mxGGb9ghk …

RU UVA operator is extremely quick in the use of the camera which shows a solid ability with the use of the UAV.

[OUTLAW 09]

If one takes the average attack numbers of the intensive shellings and constant ground attacks we are activity now in the actual third war phase and no where close to a ceasefire.

Actually one could even call it a "fighting ceasefire" if anything.


Andriy Lysenko: Militants have violated the ceasefire 100 times over the past dayhttp://uacrisis.org/30293-ukrainian-...za-minulu-dobu …

19:09 #Horlivka @Miloviche North/northwest: heavy [weapons work] heard

19:59 #Donetsk @PVB40 [fb] "I can hear explosions in #Pisky area, something heavy"

19:50 #Horlivka @77bot1 Intense battle in the north in #Zaytseve area, "RUS are having regilar evening attack"

20:07 #Pisky @AMykhailova It pounds. Small arms, AGL
Peski, it's showtime. machineguns, AGLs.

20:06 #Donetsk @PVB40 [fb] Gvardeyka, #Makeevka: heavy singles are audible from the northwest

20:17 #Avdeevka @owl_ok Rumble

20:04 #Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy Artillery volleys from Lisniy area, 4 tubes at least

Makeevka @VasyaMakeevskiy
20:10 Ceased (about 20 shots)
20:18 Again shelling from the same place
20:21 Intense fire ceased

20:11 #Horlivka @77bot1 [Battle sounds] in Mayorsk area too

Horlivka, loud.

20:20 #Donetsk #Makeevka @nixer79 Strong arty volleys fr/the area north/north-eastward fr/Grigoriev ettles started, 3-4 tubes

20:20 #Maryinka @hyeva_maryinka [vk] Quiet as before. Mine shaft dir'n: sporadic shooting, #Krasnohorivka dir'n:massive booms

Donetsk-Makeevka border, something heavy, outgoing

20:45 #Avdeevka @bamr69 Impacts on #Opytne area. Heavy ones again

DNR soc net community: "Artillery of DNR is ready to attack UA troops and waiting orders to free the Motherland". https://twitter.com/Realuran/status/627071541637959680 …

@xuilolala incoming to Avdeevka.

Peski - battle, Makeevka/Chervonogvardeyski st - shells Avdeevka, Horlivka - war action ongoing, landings

Krasnogorivka/Staromikhailivka, Horlivka - ongoing battles

Going from bad to worse tonight

Krasnohorivka
Ongoing battle, assault rifles, mortars

Horlivka outskirts - 2 hours of combat

22:17 #Kirovsk @kish_fish "Suspisious booms like incoming, I'm not sure"

22:17 #Severodonetsk @DafterHius Heavy [booms]
22:21 @smsboxnet1 Heard 2 times, didn't get what it was

22:23 #Severodonetsk @DafterHius a couple times first, more a while after, reported on 29th CP area
22:23 @smsboxnet1 [From #Kirovsk]

22:16 @spirik_ An incoming. Karbonit [=Zolote]? Bakhmutka [road]?

Donetsk 21:30
At airport battle, first mortars, then small arms and artillery joined https://twitter.com/Gong_Ego/status/627201653964414976 …

22:10 #Stanytsia_Luhanska @100007182042214 Again [shelling of S area]

22:19 #Severodonetsk @xy_gorlov4an Distant heavy blasts. like in #Novotoshkivske
@EvgenViktor The 2nd day in a row

22:24 #Horlivka @ahab7822 Distant massive boom

22:36
#Mayorsk, #Zaitsevo at blockpost very close battle! https://twitter.com/dimetros7776/sta...01264468795394 …

22:34 #Dzerzhynsk @dimetros7776 #Novhorodske: intense battle in Zalizne

Horlivka; NW of Donetsk - military action, all sorts of machineguns, mortars and god knows what else. thankfully, no MLRS.