Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

[OUTLAW 09]

Two of #Ukraine's servicemen suffered injuries during combat actions near #Zaitseve and #Maiorsk.

[Azor]

Nuff ibn Said does not stand for a good argument

Hah

I'll rephrase my point if you don't get it:
1. Do you have any evidence Russia will cede Crimea back to Ukraine just because of NATO agressive stance?
2. Do you have any evidence NATO is ready to start conventional war just to bring Crimea back to Ukraine?
If you do have it, everyone here would be grateful to learn something new.

1. No. I doubt the Ukraine can get the Crimea back anytime soon. It MAY be possible to re-do the referendum however, perhaps under EU or OSCE auspices, in order to satisfy Brussels and Washington. But then again, I was referring to the Ukraine acting unilaterally to seize Crimea and/or Donbass if Russia is sufficiently distracted in Syria. Why would NATO be involved?

If say Damascus/Teheran dragged in 10,000 Russian troops, the Ukrainian Army found itself in possession of TOWs and MANPADs, the Gulf Arabs set Chechnya/Dagestan alight and the Japanese menaced the Kuriles, there MAY be a window.

2. Again, why would NATO start a war over the Crimea or Donbass? Ukraine is not part of NATO.

The Ukrainian military has built up considerably, and cannot maintain its current capabilities forever without wrecking the economy. Use it or lose it. My questions were if and when, which you never addressed.

My issue is that as in 1938-1945, the Western Europeans are prepared to throw the East-Central Europeans under the bus. And yet the British and French were so eager for NATO to provide support for their little Libyan adventure, where they could field test the Eurofighter and Rafale...

So Ukraine is on its own.

[Azor]

...if oil falls to $35, the dollar should soar to 94 rubles...

It's honestly a good time to get into Russian bonds, particularly from SOEs such as Gazprom. I wouldn't touch the stock market as yet...

[mirhond]

Can the US backed by allies in NATO-East and in the Middle East squeeze Russia on two fronts while also bleeding Iran white?

- OK, I might be misinterpreted this sentence, and you just like to speculate on what-if scenarios, successfully summarizing the most probable one:

So Ukraine is on its own.

let's look at your options:

- If say Damascus/Teheran dragged in 10,000 Russian troops,
- the Ukrainian Army found itself in possession of TOWs and MANPADs,
- the Gulf Arabs set Chechnya/Dagestan alight
- and the Japanese menaced the Kuriles, there MAY be a window.

- What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
- Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
- You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
- Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)

[OUTLAW 09]

- OK, I might be misinterpreted this sentence, and you just like to speculate on what-if scenarios, successfully summarizing the most probable one:



let's look at your options:


- What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
- Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
- You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
- Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)

comrade mirhond---are you stating for all to read that the UAF is now in the envious position of literally stopping any further Russian troops and her mercenary attacks---there have been two general offensives in the last eight months that have basically gone nowhere.

Meanwhile there is an old Lenin statement that the revolution will eat its children which is now occurring among the so called separatists....

If we look at the tank on tank---for more than a year the Russian army and her mercenaries had an advantage of 500 tanks and over 1000 IFVs---now the UAF can actually match numbers for numbers BUT here is the interesting point the UAF has the better trained forces and especially the lower and mid level officers and SGTs.

You can that in the constant attempts by the mercenaries to break through in small units that are largely stopped on their tracks with loses.

The quality of the mercenary fighters is reflected in the latest 12 KIAs coming back from Syria ---they have vastly underestimated the combat experience of the Syria anti Assad forces.

Will be interesting to see if more "volunteer" for Syria after the burial of these 12.

[Azor]

let's look at your options:

- What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
- Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
- You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
- Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)

1. Russia can only count on 70,000 to 100,000 professional soldiers out of those 800,000 (Western equivalent), yet this is across a vast country with many time zones. The Ukrainians only need local superiority.

2. I recall that despite overwhelming Russian numerical and materiel superiority in Chechnya, only a deal with the Devil could turn that war into a an ersatz victory.

3. Yes, and the gorgeous Kyiv policewoman will stop the separatists... In any event all the Japanese need to is encourage Moscow to reinforce the Kuriles with Spetsnaz...

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears that the entire Russian FM cannot seem to remember that they Russia has not implemented a single point in Minsk 2 and yes even OSCE agrees with me........

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
#Ryabkov: #US makes no effort to secure the compliance with the Minsk agreements by Kiev
http://tass.ru/en/politics/844056 …
pic.twitter.com/DLmQ2dEimK

If I remember Minsk 2 well--there is a paragraph that requires Russia to pull out all of their troops ALL 9,000 of them.......

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin is now desperate to get in front of the Russian economic collapse with oil headed to 30 USD per barrel and the Rubel to over 100 to the USD.

Russia Update: Putin Slashes Fine for Truckers with Overweight Loads, Raises Minimum Wage
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia...15-2015/#11499 … pic.twitter.com/aUThhEDOFn

[OUTLAW 09]

- OK, I might be misinterpreted this sentence, and you just like to speculate on what-if scenarios, successfully summarizing the most probable one:



let's look at your options:


- What troops? Russian army is about 700 000 strong
- Why you give so small credit to Ukrainian military capacity? They are not some Papuans running around with spears, Ukr. army do possess enough of the stuff you mentioned, but weapons alone do not win wars, you know.
- You have no idea how hard the've tried - but majority of Caucasus-made jihadists either got themselves dead or fighting for ISIS now, you may even check the respective threads here for some links about these jihad tourists I posted.
- Why should Japanese do anything like this? They risk to anger their newly obtained divine prosecutor Poklonskaya (^_^)

Majority of 2,515 self-selected Russians name Putin "liar of the year" on Russian official-looking twitter survey. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ar/552707.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference Russian shot down of MH17......

Aric Toler @AricToler

This is Digital Globe satellite image for the Ukrainian base, at 11:08am local time, 17/7/2014. Buk is there, yeah? pic.twitter.com/pamcPUZvrB

These are the Russian ones. Buk is gone and in the field by Zaroshchenske at 11:32am. pic.twitter.com/aOGlcDBqgx

This is how long it takes to go. Was this thing going 200kmph to get there in 24 minutes? pic.twitter.com/DBjtCRB3rI

And if you argue about time zones -- go ahead, it only works for local time. With Moscow time, their narrative is even patchier.

[OUTLAW 09]

Turkish ship in the way of Russia hijacking oil platforms contested by Ukraine
pic.twitter.com/dKParWKdLM
http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-dece...-hijacking-oil …

Russia grossly violated international maritime law-State Border Guard Service on "Boiko platforms"
http://en.censor.net.ua/n365246

[OUTLAW 09]

Reportedly 10 UAF soldiers wounded today by russian mortar shelling at #Krasnohorivka and nearby villages http://society.lb.ua/war/2015/12/15/...poluchili.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Reference Russian info warfare..........

Kremlin Trolls @KremlinTrolls
Soviet Active Measures in the US 1986-87..
Applies today in #Putin's #Russia.
http://americasurvival.org/wp-conten...e_Measures.pdf …
pic.twitter.com/0KXadImwJ8

Kremlin Trolls ‏@KremlinTrolls · 1h1 hour ago
#KremlinTrolls get deeply embedded in anti-Kremlin communities, then radically change their "views" once activated.��

Russian info warfare now directed fully against Montenegro.....trying to split NATO......
Moscow calls on Montenegro to hold referendum on joining NATO
http://www.unian.info/world/1213744-...ning-nato.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

MORE Russian nuclear threats.........as normal these days from them.......

Rus Commander Karakaev: US missile defense System cannot counter Russian Nukes
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2015/...cannot-counter …
pic.twitter.com/DMxc5k4TvY

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia's energy bridge to Crimea is poised to launch its 2nd line soon. It won't be enough.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/12/16...ling-blackouts …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian nuclear weapons have arrived in #Crimea - Dzhemilev
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-n...ys-555248.html …

If correct, this increases probability Russian Forces will move to seize Mariupol & Odessa flanks of Fortress Crimea https://twitter.com/uatodaytv/status/677137579758759936 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Donetsk 21:17
Towards the airport combat is on, shooting.
https://twitter.com/HuAdvokatos/stat...05955990417409 …

Donetsk 22:15
Kyivskyi ds - The fourth salvo in the last 5 minutes (mortar?)
https://twitter.com/AlfaNubovsky/sta...20442365673472 …

Russia creates jumping-off ground for its Air Forces in Belarus for possible invasion of Ukraine.
http://en.censor.net.ua/n365348

Kyiv police defused a bomb hidden under a truck
pic.twitter.com/YnKSyLZuKC
http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/16-dece...-under-a-truck …

Winter uniform of Russian militants in Luhansk region BUT no snow to be seen for miles thus white stands out nicely.....
http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/16-dece...nts-in-luhansk …
pic.twitter.com/0jKgZF8pBo

On the border of #Zaporizhye region spotted 4 Russian Mi-8 helicopters
http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/16-dece...gion-spotted-4 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Humor......

Novorossiya Ministry of Emergency Situations sends #Crimea the magic energy capsules found last year in #Donbas
pic.twitter.com/ruVMgUYwH2

[OUTLAW 09]

Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins

ZDF documentary on Putin and his wars, including evidence of Russian T72B3 tanks in Ukraine
http://www.zdf.de/zdfzeit/machtmensc...-41341490.html …
pic.twitter.com/YxtfTQiODT
In German........

[OUTLAW 09]

Knowledgeable US experts agree US defenses pose no threat to #Russia missiles. So why does Moscow fuss so much about missile defense?