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Thread: Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

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  1. #1
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Ukraine: Russo-Ukr War (June-December 2015)

    A new thread for updates and comments on the confrontation between Russia and the Ukraine primarily, which now appears to be Phase Three of a War.

    The previous thread 'Ukraine: military aspects ((Aug '14 to mid-June '15))' is now closed and accessible via:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21016

    There are a number of other, smaller relevant threads which remain open. Either on the Ukraine or more Russian aspects, they are IIRC all in the Europe arena.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-14-2015 at 04:50 PM.
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    U.S., EU ready new sanctions to deter Putin (but stop because fight ended?) Check KIA/WIA

    http://cnn.it/1HA4pRf

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    U.S., EU ready new sanctions to deter Putin (but stop because fight ended?) Check KIA/WIA

    http://cnn.it/1HA4pRf
    Pushilin says '#Ukraine on the brink of major war; situation could escalate in hours.' http://ria.ru/world/20150614/1069906480.html

    Ceasefire?
    One Ukrainian soldier killed, twenty-one wounded in Donbas in last day
    http://www.unian.info/war/1089153-on...-last-day.html pic.twitter.com/QmenGf3mcf

    Reports of more #Ukraine casualties from todays fighting coming in:
    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/st...21115499933697

    OSCE Recorded Disappearance of Militants' Heavy Weapons from Holding Areas http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/175...ing-areas.html via @UaUnderAttack

    Militants fire Grad systems on Luhansk villages on Saturday
    http://www.unian.info/war/1089170-mi...-saturday.html pic.twitter.com/08GhITGgb1

    #Ukraine: UA troops shelled by heavy artillery. Broken agreement with #Minsk:http://bit.ly/1IUdg1M pic.twitter.com/W0RFUvNtG6

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    #Russia troops attacking directly into just 1 #Donbas town isn't an offensive; when they advance deep into #Ukraine, then it's an offensive.

    AFP reporter injured in east Ukraine shelling - in English https://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp-report...154540885.html … via @yahoosg

    Russian Nazi taken POW today @JulianRoepcke pic.twitter.com/fdhol3Husc

    #LOLnews
    The "DNR"'s Basurin says, Ukrainian forces broke the ceasefire 185 times in the last 24 hours
    .

    Russian ground forces DPR tactical group "Somalia" (cmdr Tolstykh/"Givi") at Donetsk airport via GRU @EgoRZemtsoV pic.twitter.com/rDEV3hmLiM

    Russian ground forces LPR unit "Ghost" (ex-Mozgovoy) in Russian-occupied Donbas via GRU @EgoRZemtsoV 14 Jun pic.twitter.com/OFVSEXG7Dt

    Russian aircraft flies 500 feet above #NATO warships, officials (almost) 'very uncomfortable': http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/13/po...sea/index.html … pic.twitter.com/UVjzd74HJl

    19 Enemy Drones Recorded Over Day - Motuzyanyk http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/17531-19-en
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 05:30 PM.

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    Another strong evidence of #Russia special forces' presence in #Ukraine http://yle.fi/uutiset/8073906 (in Fin)

    Leaders of LPR sets miners under pressure. Work without pay, or fighting in ranks of militia. http://nv.ua/ukraine/events/glavari-...aty-53651.html … pic.twitter.com/JIbpD1pwvN

    Rodina and Novotoshkivske under shelling from Pervomaisk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...rom-pervomaisk … via @GirkinGirkin

    RUS ability to recruit volunteers to fight in Donbas is waning http://voc.tv/1QXepom pic.twitter.com/h83Aeo8CmI
    With reservists losing interest in fighting #Ukraine, will #Russia send more regulars now?

    Militants shelling of #Marinka continued throughout the day, injuring at least one civilian http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...ued-throughout

    2 Ukr troops KIA, 3 WIA in the Russian shelling of #Maryinka http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...an-shelling-of
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 05:03 PM.

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    For two former Spetsnaz service members who Putin claimed were never on active duty and are POWs—this is a rather strange Russian action if they were in fact “former service members”???

    Friend of Erofeev: "Relatives have been isolated from the whole world. We [their friends] have also been processed. I can't say more"

    .@novaya_gazeta reporter unable to get in touch with relatives of captured Spetznaz; told by officers' friends: "They have been isolated"

    Spetznaz Alexandrov: "I was able to chat with my wife on VK only,no one answers phones. Wife deleted her profile after a few chat attempts"

    Spetznaz POW : "Ukrainian wounded soldiers are met back home as heroes. RU wounded soldiers are being hidden and disowned back home"

    RU consul told Alexandrov "We can't get in touch with your wife or relatives, either". He laughs it off as a lie.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2015 at 05:35 PM.

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    A civil war is an armed conflict that meets the following criteria:
    a) the war has caused more than 1,000 battle deaths
    b) the war represented a challenge to the sovereignty of an internationally
    recognized state
    c) the war occurred within the recognized boundary of that state
    d) the war involved the state as one of the principal combatants
    e) the rebels were able to mount an organized military opposition to the
    state and to inflict significant casualties on the state.

    All of the criteria must be meet in order for it to be defined a “civil war”.

    Insurrection:

    An act or instance of rising in revolt, rebellion, or resistance against civil authority or an established government.

    Invasion:
    Entrance of an armed force into a territory to conquer.
    Conquer can be also defined—to force a change ie political change upon a government that the government does not want.

    Does any of the three above items forbid a government from reacting to these actions—no it does not especially after the last Ukrainian election which was deemed one of the freest and fairest since it’s freedom from the Soviet Union.

    What mirhond was attempting to push via agitprop was the theory of a "Ukrainian civil war" which has been the constant propaganda drumbeat by the Russian government. Why --then Russia can and does state--ie Putin's Duma speech that they are "protecting ethnic Russian speakers from an evil Nazi junta". That seems to then to not sound like the term "invasion".

    Seems they do not quite understand the definition of a "civil war".

    WHAT we have from the Russian side is a Russian supported, funded and fueled with mercenaries "insurrection" that in August 2014 transitioned to an "armed invasion" WHICH has now transitioned a full blown Ukrainian Russo war being fought along a 200 mile front with a width of 50kms.

    Notice all western leaders to include Putin are running from the use of the term "war".

    As they are still running from the term "invasion" ie the US actually stopped using the term "incursion" and are saying now nothing.

    IF we look at the figures of the so called first --"independence fighters then separatists, and now Russian proxies" they really are all "mercenaries".

    Paid for by Russia, armed by Russia, trained by Russia and feed by Russia--the furthest thing from being a so called "local".

    Out of the current figure of 34K fighters of the DNR/LNR only approximately 4-6K are actually locals. Even the first Russian former or maybe not so former FSB officer mercenary Strelkov aka Girkin to arrive in the Donbass from Crimea --openly and often complained that the locals did not want to join and were poor fighters.

    So is what mirhond calls a "civil war" really a "civil war" when the majority of the fighters are Russian mercenaries and Russian troops physically located inside eastern Ukraine? --BTW an eastern Ukraine with a clearly defined international recognized border with Russia that one has to illegally cross to get to the Ukraine in the first place since they did not have a visa issued by the Ukraine????

    No----
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-20-2015 at 09:12 AM.

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    As Russia has now "weaponized information" --words take on serious meanings-and one of those Russian "weaponized words" is "civil war".
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-20-2015 at 03:37 PM.

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    Under the rules of Russian "weaponization of information" if we take my definitions of;

    civil war
    insurrection
    invasion

    THEN where does in fact reality on the ground fit in??

    This is verified ground reality;

    OSCE
    Between Sept. 1 and June 1, monitors counted 20,021 Russians in military uniforms crossing to and from rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine.


    So is this an example of a;

    civil war
    insurrection
    invasion

    Clearly not "a civil war" if 20K plus Russians in military uniforms are coming and going from Russian into eastern Ukraine--that smacks more of an "invasion".

    BUT wait under the Russian rules of "weaponization of information" these are fighters who volunteered, were voluntold, are vacationing and got lost because they had no GPS and maps, vacationing and took their own tanks and artillery with them while on vacation, former Russian military service members, Russian military retirees, Russian military contractors, plain Russian citizens defending fellow Russians from murdering Nazi's, Russian neo Nazi's fighting Ukrainian Nazi's, local miners AND truck drivers.

    BUT definitely not part and parcel of the Russian military--that simply cannot be the case--"absolutely no Russian troops in the Ukraine" is the mantra from Moscow since August 2014--but wait what about those 10 Russian airborne troops who were POWS in august 2014 and the two Russian GRU Spetsnaz POWs in 2015??

    That is "weaponization of information".

    Dismay, distract, distort, deflect, doubt, distrust--the 6Ds of the Russian "weaponization of information".

    Now if we look at the word--"plundering" which I think everyone assumes means "taking everything not nailed down, is not yours and you will not pay for it" because it belongs to the "enemy" and is the 'spoils of war".

    So is the massive theft of Ukrainian coal being shipped via Russia railway coal carriers to Russia, the complete dismantling of five Ukrainian factories and shipping them to Russia, the taking of anything that is scrape metal then shipping it to Russia and the recent taking of the Ukrainian grain harvest--150 truck loads of grain to Russia "plundering"??

    It definitely fulfills the definition of "plundering."

    So how does that fit into the term "civil war" where supposedly the local population is attempting to defend itself--not steal and ship everything to another country.

    THEN if we take the concept of the destruction of the entire critical infrastructure and civilian housing infrastructure by one's own defenders ie Russian Army how does that fit into the concept of a "civil war" vs say an "invasion" where that is expected to occur??

    Core question----Why does one destroy one's own house if I am in a "civil war" to defend myself??

    That is the "Russian weaponization of information".

    Once one understands "the game" it is quite easy to discern truth from fiction.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-20-2015 at 01:40 PM.

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    Russian "weaponization of information" moment of truth.--"we do not use the civilian population as human shields". BUT why does that then happen?? Which by the way is normal for an "invasion"---- but wait I though we are in a "civil war".....??

    Cognitive dissonance at work.

    VIDEO: RUSSIANS FIRING FROM ARTILLERY ON AN APARTMENT BUILDING IN AVDEEVKA
    http://www.publika.md/te-iau-fiorii-...-_2360011.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-20-2015 at 03:38 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russian "weaponization of information" moment of truth.--"we do not use the civilian population as human shields". BUT why does that then happen?? Which by the way is normal for an "invasion"---- but wait I though we are in a "civil war".....??

    Cognitive dissonance at work.

    VIDEO: RUSSIANS FIRING FROM ARTILLERY ON AN APARTMENT BUILDING IN AVDEEVKA
    http://www.publika.md/te-iau-fiorii-...-_2360011.html
    Pro-Russian rebels pointing out civilian apartment buildings to shell in Avdeyevka. Obvious war crime: http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...sualties/#9220

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